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A propos that long term trend - the $30 price was so much above that long term trend - shouldn't it now drop below it in proportion to that?
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Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change? YES!!! Abso-@%$-lutely. Have you ever heard an economist, or anyone actually, refer to inflation in nominal terms? " The price of total goods and services went up from $16 trillion to $16.0001 trillion last month." No. Percentage, no matter how large or small the nominal numbers. I still don't see the connection between this and the lines drawn at the charts. Especially when you say that most investors thing in nominal terms - wouldn't it follow that they see the trends also in nominal terms and thus also making them go as linear functions by self fulfilling prophecies? |
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But using the log scale for this trend was not the orthodoxy of technical analyzis - or was it? Zby, log charts are preferred over linear charts when representing rate of change. The drop from $3.5 to $2.5 was just as significant as from $14 to $10. Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change? The links you provided only define what log scale is. |
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S3052, do you see the long term trend broken now?
Yes. Longterm trend is broken intraday. it needs a rapid reversal above 3.7$ and better 4$ to hold in the next 24 - 48h But using the log scale for this trend was not the orthodoxy of technical analyzis - or was it? |
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So what is the safe heaven now? automaticearth that you also linked to at some point argues that for this stage cash in dollars is what is going to rule the market. If not dollars then maybe CHF?
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I want to be done with bitcoin, but I can't divert my gaze from the train wreck at this point. It's so interesting to read the forums and watch the price.
Same here, as you probably remember, I've been enjoying the price falling from the $30 dollar mark. I like it because I got flammed to death when I used to say anything negative about bitcoin back then. I also did not like the fact that the forum stopped newbie posts under 50 when the price started to fall hard from the $30 dollar mark. I felt this was a form of manipulation on there part to stop panic selling. It is enjoyable because people were treating bitcoin like it was a cult thing. They lost all sense of reason and good judgement. I would love for bitcoin to succeed but its reputation has been sufficiently harmed that I don't think it has a reasonable chance at this point. I'm sorry to admit that I made some poor decisions on misplaced hope. Thankfully, however, in the end I didn't lose any money. I did lose an awful lot of time. Oh the time. And yet, as I said, I just can't look away at this point. I'm captivated. The question is did you withdraw all of USD from mtgox already? If not - then I can bet you'll try the game again one day. |
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@S3052 - I understand that you base your prediction on the fact that there were 5 Elliot waves - but how did you decide that the 5th wave is over? In your picture the first wave had it's minimum not at the first drop down - but at the second.
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It is rather nice that someone keeps trying to start a trend upwards. Maybe they'll succeed. But in the meantime, they give a wonderful opportunity to sell into the strength.
If they don't succeed and the 'long term trend' gets broken then bitcoin will lose the only plausible 'growth story' - I think someone realized that and now he tries to steer the trend manually. I don't know but I think it can work - depending on how deep pocket he has. But maybe I am wrong here - maybe it was just a rushing investor. If I tried to reverse the trend I would do that in parallel in many markets. For example starting a rally in the Chinese market would not cost much money - but some (MtGox) investors would go crazy if they sow that. |
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If the price drops below what some promote as the 'long term trend' - then bitcoin will not have any plausible growth story - it will not stop collapsing until it reaches the level that can be supported by commerce using bitcoin.
By supporting I mean the situation where the utility of the bitcoin system is greater then the electricity and other costs of running the system. It is very hard to quantify the utility of the bitcoin system - there are some transactions that are facilitated by it - but even if we count that they operate with 50% of profit (which is probably way too generous even for SilkRoad) and if we all of that profit count as generated by the bitcoin system - I suspect that this still would not be even the same order of magnitude as the $500K/month electricity cost of the recent hash rate (which is dropping but not very fast).
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How can you bailout BTC currency?
I'm interested in hearing more.
Just have a look at yesterday's charts. |
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It looks like MtGox is pushing up while all the other exchanges are pressing down. If they catch the fire we'll have a lot of momentum.
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I cashed out my bitcoins back in July and have withdrawn about 2/3ds of the money, since then I tried to play with the rest - but only managed to reduce it a bit. I wonder how many people did a similar move. How much cash left MtGox? How much is still there? It is very tempting to be back in the game if you have some cash left at MtGox - that's why this bubble deflation goes very slow. If you were an early investor that decided to cash out - how much did you leave on MtGox just in case?
Only MtGox and Dwolla know how much of the original investment is still in circulation. What is certain beyond all doubt is people aren't depositing enough new money to keep pace with even a small portion of current operating costs. Thankfully 80%+ of the mining power is content to mine-and-hold, if they started cashing out enough to pay for power (never mind hardware) it'd be a bloodbath. The trial in France might reveal some info about the cash in the European MtGox accounts. |
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I used to use twitter #bitcoin tagged tweets as another measure of bitcoin popularity - until someone started spamming it, unfortunately any measure that is made public will be gamed.
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S3052 does a great job on technical analysis (I even follow him on twitter to keep up with all the updates) and yes, he considers other things beside the charts, such as the community thoughts here at this thread. I was just saying that every prediction must be taken with a grain of salt.
Regardless of the bitcoin price, volume in currency is an indicator of how much people are trading. Investing $1000 in June means that I can move around 33 BTC. In October it means that I can move 250 BTC. So the BTC volume should be 7 times higher now, but instead it is more or less the same. Either we have the same amount of people investing 7 times less money, or we have 7 times less people. Either way, I don't believe that we can support $30 prices.
May I suggest an alternate theory? The money the "7 people" invested in June has been collected and used to pay for hardware and power by a small % miners. My estimate is 15-20% cash out, the rest are happy looking rich on paper and/or speculating "long term." The remainder of original investment is being traded by a smaller (but not 7x smaller) group. I cashed out my bitcoins back in July and have withdrawn about 2/3ds of the money, since then I tried to play with the rest - but only managed to reduce it a bit. I wonder how many people did a similar move. How much cash left MtGox? How much is still there? It is very tempting to be back in the game if you have some cash left at MtGox - that's why this bubble deflation goes very slow. If you were an early investor that decided to cash out - how much did you leave on MtGox just in case? |
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That depends on stick I guess.
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Infinitely different.
What is left is infinitely bigger in the first case but the loss is not even 3% bigger in the second case  How it is weighted depends on your utility function or your psychology. If you rely on it to be your last resort reserve - then it is a big difference but if it was an investment (or a lottery ticket) - then there would not be much difference. |
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I've also noticed increasing interest in bitcoin and I was thinking about the coincidence with S3052 predictions - seems uncanny. I even invested a bit - maybe too early.
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