Well, for one I disagree that it has any relevance whatsoever how many miners are still mining, as far as the price is concerned.
That's your stance. You wouldn't be mining if you expected bitcoin prices to tank, which means since you ARE mining you're bullish on bitcoins prospects. Ditto 90% of the bitcoin community. Also, the number of people mining DOES have an effect on the price. Do you for a minute think $5 would be a "bottom" if difficulty hit 500k? I know I'd be willing to sell coins for $1.50 at that point. As soon as BTC get cheap enough that it's not profitable to mine at 1.7 million difficulty at even at 4.6c/kwhr (my rate) you won't see a 5% drop, you will see massive swings in difficulty every 2016 blocks. 500k for 3 days, 2 million for two months. Repeat. $6 is the new $9. Which was the new $11.50. Which was the new $13. Which was the new... Well, you get the picture. The changes don't happen in days - with normal operation the 2000 blokcs take about two weeks, but if people stop mining - then the change will take longer. The problem is that if the hashing power drops massively then there will be a long time during which sending bitcoins will be slow. Not much commerce is going on in bitcoins now - so it is hard to say how much such a speed drop would affect the businesses - but it certainly would further reduce the confidence in the system. |
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Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.
Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.
Assertions lacking evidence! Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_DestroyedThat number is guaranteed to increase - so this does not give you any information at all. |
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A more bullish sentiment does not directly indicate a bullish price forecast. In contrary, when sentiment is very bullish, most people are already invested and that’s why it can be a sign of a reversal.
I think that what is important is also the change of sentiments. If before everyone was bearish - then we can assume they sold, and if now they are bullish - then it is still probable that they have not yet bought back - as this takes time even after you think it the trend switched. |
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The first time I bought at one of these tangent points - and that was a great decision  |
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The Manipulator is making it stagnate at 5.50 instead of drop to below $5 so we can get in at a definite good time to buy.
Oh poor you. So the evil "manipulator" is buying our coins for too much money. Even though you seem convinced BTCs will rise in price. Cant you see how nonsensical that is? What a kill joy! |
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I bet on $100 that bitcoin will crash to $2. I am certain because everytime it crashed, it first went up 1-1.5 dollars. Today happened the same, from 4.7 to 6 or more.
Nice way of hedging. |
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Just have a look:   |
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The answer is basically no because it's confidential user data.
At least the BTC part of the balance is composed of anonymous addresses. The traditional currency part would be more tricky - sure. |
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But miners are irrelevant here - more miners does not solve the problem with not enough money coming into the system. At least not directly.
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... I've been saying that since June 11, 2011, three days after the bubble burst and the price had dropped from $30 to $17. "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form." ... Well - there is a revenue model - it is the same as with any other currency - or with any other payment system, the system enables new trades each one of them generates some profit. Of course nobody even tries to come up with numbers for this - in that sense I agree that this is a bubble. |
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7200 coins a day is $1,000,000 dollars worth of bitcoins a month available to be sold at $5. If you don't understand how requiring TWELVE MILLION DOLLARS a year to keep bitcoin at $5 influences prices, well, I can see why you've had 100% failure to predict major bitcoin pricing trends so far, and I have had far more success. The success of our predictions is an ad hominem argument ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem) which is a failure in argumentation. Also your attempt at changing the coin amount again to 7200 and ... 7200BTC per day is the correct estimation. You have 50BTC per 10 minutes - that is 6 * 50BTC = 300BTC per hour and 300 * 24 = 7200 per day. |
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No it's not, bear-troll.
Panic selling would mean end to the bear market - if this is not yet panic - then we'll need to wait some more for the trend reversal. Well, I should probably clarify that he's a fake bear. A bull in disguise. Wants the price to drop so he can buy cheap coins. Most of the bear-trolls on these forums are the same. I want to buy cheap coins, sure, but I can do without the psychological games. Let's just get to the next rally already... You lost me here. So do you think this was a 'panic selling' and the bear market is now over or not? If you don't think that it was 'panic selling' (and it looks like that - because you used the world troll to describe someone who suggested this) - then do you think that the trend is going down? Or maybe your theory is that 'panic selling' means that the down trend is going to be continued? But if you believe this - then how do you think it will be reversed? Just a long stagnation and suddenly it goes up? To be honest I don't have my own theory - the hypothesis that the trend reversal needs a 'panic selling' is just something I've read in the forum here But it sounds plausible. |
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It's panic selling, matt.
No it's not, bear-troll. Panic selling would mean end to the bear market - if this is not yet panic - then we'll need to wait some more for the trend reversal. |
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Yeah I too have seen the video and the systems the Bitpay guys are building. It is really top-notch stuff. If I were a wealthy VC angel I'd be making some phone calls right now.
It might very well be 'top notch' - but it'll take a few more months before we know that - and after the latest conference I feel rather skeptic when people use phraseology like this. |
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...
To summarize, simply compare the transaction count from when the price was at this level the last time, earlier this year. If that correlation continues to hold true we can't go much lower unless the economy suffers significant further degrowth. And it doesn't look like that right now.
How do you use that correlation to predict anything? The fact that now the transaction count is at such and such level and that this correlates with the current price does not tell you anything with future prices - or does it? Or do you say that the transaction count leads the price? I don't see that from that chart alone - but if you show me I might change my opinion on this. Currently I think that all those transactions are just people speculating on bitcoins, in July with those high prices there was just lots of speculation going on now it is slowly dieing off. |
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To me the bubble has entirely deflated, a further downtrend from $4.xx would have nothing to do with a bubble anymore. That would be a decline to an economy size below the latest bubble. I can't see that happening right now though because the economy is still around 6-7 times larger than at the start of 2011, for example.
What I see right now is a possibly fairly long struggle between $4 and $6. The lower range is the buyers zone and the higher range is for sellers. Where it will go from here depends on if the economy keeps shrinking or not. To me the most likely scenario is that the degrowth levels off relatively soon, and the charts support this, and then a new bubble will start forming.
This is the big challenge for Bitcoin. No longer can we count on miners coming in and getting interested in Bitcoin, because mining is pretty much as unprofitable as it has ever been. Mining was one of the things that got me originally interested in Bitcoin, but I wouldn't be a bull if I only got interested in that.
Bitcoin is a revolutionary medium of exchange and that is where it must flourish next. I see a good number of services and tools being developed that could do just that, but time will tell.
How this is different from your previous predictions that did not hold? We all know that it cannot drop below 0, the trend has to stop somewhere - but why at 5 and not at 2 for example? |
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Good that someone is stopping this falldown.
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It seems that now all mtgox fees are in BTC - so to cover the costs they need to dump some of them in the market. The trial then can have a strong impact on the market. In both ways - because if they win the trial - then possibly the costs will be payed back for them by the losing side (anyone from France can confirm that? I know in the USA this is not the case - but this is Europe).
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