Doog, let's do not make up reality, the change was made to protect the bankroll from the swings caused precisely by Nakowa and ONLY by Nakowa, for the simple reason he is the only one pushing max profit.

Changing the max profit while he was playing was kinda unfair and counter productive, there's no shame in admitting a mistake, you already apologized for this to Nakowa and IMO we should just move on.

Max profit will be soon at 0.5%, IMO is a decent compromise (even if I prefer optimal kelly) and anyhow any change to this or other parameters should be announced with at least 12h advance. This way Nakowa can prove to all us naysayers how his strategy really works.

My bet is his strategy is just BS, and he will go busto long before the house.

That's the purpose of 99% of Adam's posts.

Plus, in 2012 he said that BTC was going to be traded above $100 this year, and pretty much everybody laughed at him. Prudhon even bet 10 BTC against that happening. As we all know Adam won, he was absolutely right, but at the end didn't want to take Prudhon's money.

This is a true story, I'm on my cell now but I'm sure somebody can find the link.

Morale of the story: historically the most radical permabulls* have ALWAYS been right both in the mid and in the long term.

*we will have to exclude rpietila, that case falls in the realm of delusions and mental sicknesses.

If KnC delivers +400 units per day as they claim we will probably see a 400% difficulty jump. Anyhow, i dont think they will.

200M difficulty and probably a 400% jump on next adjustment might be a problem for some.

Most people would kill to have a problem that leads them to win +1M usd.

We say it's luck, he says he has a winning strategy, only way to prove it is to keep playing until him or the house go busto.

you can have 10.000€ a day/50.000€  a month

Te doy la razón, si bien "fungible" suele significar otra cosa en español, la RAE también le da el mismo significado que en inglés cuando se habla de "bienes fungibles".

Totally agree.

I was the one saying we should "cuddle" our whales, but I just mean to be fair with them by not changing how the casino works when they are playing precisely to "stop" them from winning. Honestly, that's lame, I assume that everybody should understand what 1% edge + 1% max profit means (high variance). I don't think we should adulate our whales (you can see how in other threads I tell Nakowa very clearly I think he is delusional and he will eventually go busto), I just think we should just let them play and follow "their strategy" without messing with them and the reason why is veyr clear for me: the fundamentals of the casino (1% edge, Kelly criterion) are sound and solid, and gambler's mentality is definitely our ally.

As it was obvious, now Nakowa justifies his losses by the change in the rules, and it's possible he won't play as much as before because he feels his "strategy" has been cheated. IMO he is delusional, I don't think he is as smart as you seem to think (otherwise he wouldn't believe he found "a flaw in sha256" and that he can "spot patterns"), and I strongly believe he would have played over and over until he lost everything. You say he might win and "never come back", that is a possibility but IMO very small, I've seen many gamblers in my life and Nakowa is just the prototypical one (big rush when gambling lots of money, denies he is a gambler, believes he has a strategy that beats the house, etc. etc. etc.) They just come back, and they come back more when they are losing, that is what happens 99% of the times. Now that we "changed the rules" while he was playing, precisely to stop him (this is very obvious Doog, and hardly justifiable), we just gave him an excuse to feel cheated, and we just gave him a reason to never play again. In his mind is not his "strategy" not working any more, is US that messed up with it.

I still think he will eventually play again (gamblers are gamblers), but nevertheless as I said many times before I think changing the max profit while he was playing was a very bad, rushed move.

Finally: 1/2 Kelly is much better than 1/4 Kelly, and probably this situation will just make that important changes (like variable risk) will be implemented sooner. I for one fully support you, I just increased my investment, and probably will continue to do so.

Hoes are already accepting BTC. I cannot link the article because I'm on my cell, but on I read an article on avn.com about a whorehouse in UK officially accepting BTC.

Changing the rules while you were playing was not cool, I guess it was a decision taken in the heat of the moment, probably because of the pressure of a few investors scared to death of variance... Anyhow you already got an apology.... And isn't 0.5% max profit good enough to use your "strategy"?

Max profit will be taken to 0.5% in a few hours, will you be able to win the house edge or you just run out of luck?

Leverage is a very tricky thing, if implemented it should be done with the utmost care and I'd personally avoid it.

I agree that implementing well variable risk is the top priority ATM.

0.5% is already much better than 0.25%, a better balance variance/expected returns IMO

For this type of change I would have an announcement on the front page for at least 12 hours

And Doog, thanks for listening to our concerns, I'm sure all this noise will help to improve this amazing product you created.

Dooglus is honest.

Just Dice is provably fair.

There are no known flaws in sha256.

Nakowa: you are just a lucky player. If you really think you can beat the house edge in the long term, just prove your point by playing until you or the Casino go busto. I guess doog could at least raise max profit to 0.5% and commit to not changing the rules while you are playing, we would enjoy the show.

Excuse me, but I need to ask: so why these people invested in a casino that has a 1% house edge, plus an optimal kelly (1%) max profit? Complaining about variance knowing those parameters is like complaining because at 3AM is dark.

Oda: for what is worth I agree on the fact that many investors are just clueless of what investing in a casino means (some of them dared to write that for them J-D is a "long term, stable investment" - LOL so hard at that, they do not even understand what the business model of a casino is). This can lead to panic, FUD and bank runs. In fact I already wrote about it in another thread yesterday, agreeing with your point:

Nakowa: your strategy never worked. You didn't prove a single point (well, yes: that a single player with a bankroll orders of magnitude bigger than the rest of the players can create high variance - and some of us already knew that).

As an investor, I tell you that I was and I am just begging for you to keep playing. Too bad that some others "lost faith in math" (LOL) and panicked, which lead to a drastic reduction of max profit, which in fact probably "protected" you from bigger losses in the last three sessions.

You should feel ashamed for trying to sell a "gambling strategy" based on "flaws in SHA256" for 111 BTC. You have no strategy, you discovered NO flaw in SHA256, and you just bet at random trying to "spot patterns" - which is just a gambler's fallacy.

Nakowa was/is indeed one of the best promos for the site. I was there while he was playing and the max profit was suddenly reduced to STOP him. That's unfair and lame, it was a rushed decision driven by emotions - and it was a very BAD decision. You want to cuddle and support Nakowa, he is the best customer you can have.