Pleasant thing to wake up to. Back to sleep. Nice post IAS  The mooooost important thing I've learned since doing this bitcoin a year and a half ago is learning to think for myself By the way, after stumbling into astrology with yours and Otoh's threads, I looked into that Somner guy and watched a podcast of his with an A.T. Mann. For some reason I couldn't resist trying out a consultation at least once, and I chose a Life Time Reading from A.T. Mann and he summed up my life impeccably well. His theory is that we live life in a logarithmic scale and be pinpoints how I was conceived (ie how my parents felt, who chose what (I was unexpected and my parents weren't close!!!), how I grew up (very feminine household ie three sisters), etc with 100% accuracy. Things that you cannot find from Facebook etc. I was truly astounded. My future looks very interesting and I am quite happy I did it. By the way Otoh did say the stars say second half of this month should be great, and not simply in regards to bitcoin I didn't even realize AT Mann was alive as I assumed he was from a long while ago but just checked and he is only 69. That is amazing if you got a reading from him. We should chip in and have him look at Bitcoin using Gann and Astrology? Was he expensive? When you get a reading from an astrologer that is good/great, it can absolutely shock you. The trick is applying it to something like BTC, where the location is not even 100% knows... |
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Ah, I misread what you meant by that HnS chart and the text. weeee bit tired seeing as it's 6AM. my apologies How I see it is the pressure is brewing. So question: where is it going to pop? The developments that have been taking place behind the scenes (of which you are aware, per the astro threads), are, to me, very bullish however. So, considering that, it's too risky for me to be short of any sort at this particular point in time, especially when it's contradictory with how I personally analyze the market. Since my thinking is that we've been in a primary uptrend since pizza, with a few secondary down trends, (trend is your friend, etc) I understand that it's very risky to bet against the trend, even if trying to follow a secondary trend (as Charles Dow warned).the only way I'll sell is as we go up if we go up too fast ie on the climb of a bubble. I am trying to learn some TA too, can never be a bad perspective to have. However, for some, focusing on and following a strict arbitrary mathematical rules can make certain people not focus as much as they should on considering the simple perspective of what's going on here. You do note that: "One last thing, I follow some people using (advanced) mathematical systems (e.g. Gann, Elliot, Fib, etc.) and they aren't right any more than the simpletons that I see. It seems to be a toss up. Though, the really good players are probably not "playing" on the forums and such. " So, it's probably a bit of both TA and psychology that the good major players implement. TA would be useful in determining pressure points and also in determining how people that use TA solely are going to react. But they also look at the market sentiment and future dynamics. "Would a series of dumps here make people panic?" "How should I accumulate without too much slippage" etc etc I think my point is, either we can think like market makers, or we can be market easy targets. I do not believe for a second that the people that have influence in the market are following a TA trading system trying to scoop tops and bottoms like that of Goomboo's journal. Keep things simple and perhaps it's easier to see the market for what it really is now, I need sleep, don't do anything crazy without me!! Great post, I enjoyed reading that. Your sentiments are quite similar to mine (but that isn't why I liked it!). It is a bit of a "trapped between a rock and a hard place" when your heart is 100% BTC (not for the money, for what it represents, changes, brings and eventually demolishes) but the technical indicators say "down" or bring lots of uncertainty. So, let's look at GREED. We are trained in it - that is the backdrop of Capitalism. I'll sacrifice "profits" on a move up to confirm the move up. I'm not shorting just on principle but I am not locked into a belief system, so anything can change. The Astro thread (my comments) and the audio file say Summer is not a BTC time. I take that in and it makes up maybe 30% or so of my "opinion". The technical indicators another 30% and the fundamentals another 30%. Perhaps my intuition pulls a bit of what is left over together, and I, of course, am not really breaking it down like that in my head or in practice. It varies and moves as life does. The time I am excited about is coming (astrologically) and that is later in the year. And I'm very much looking forward to next year when the Sun is in Aries again, like the last run (not the 2011 one). I'll watch that time closely. Each of these "systems" are weighed according to my intuition and what is going on at the time. BTW - GANN was an astrologer and used that in his toobox... Extensively! His stock analysis was top notch. I won't let what others think influence what I have in my toolbox and what I speak of... Sometimes seeing something works but not knowing why is fine - don't depend on science to tell you what is possible or impossible. People were put to death in the past for using things (e.g. astrology, entheogens, etc.) that was only meant for the Elite/Church, how people gloss that clue over just shows you the influence society/culture/tradition/religion/etc. has over them. Regarding the arbitrary mathematical rules - I concur and don't get me wrong - I was overlaying some GANN patterns on tradeview last night and I actually think I taught myself something - I looked for my own "patterns". Is it better for me to first read about GANN? Probably. But I have enough of a foundation in math and stock trading to teach myself. Look at Hendrix, he clearly had influences from many people, but he couldn't read music and his approach broke through boundaries that had he embraced, wouldn't have been the Jimi we loved. So, I'll use him as my model and not Soros so to say! ehehehhe I do think the big buyers on the run from $65 to $108 or so, used TA as an entry point. I know because I had my finger on the trigger at $68 (ouch that I didn't buy in there.) But, as you alluded to, we can't depend on that. Don't get caught with your pants down (unless it is beneficial for you ;-9 (was that "9" a mistake or meant to be?....) Depending on systems only traps you within those systems. I remember what J. Krishnamurti said, "Life is a pathless land." I take that to heart and try not to be too "disabled" in any one area, which is challenging... I also remember some of what Morpheus said... In the end and as stated throughout my posts, I believe in BTC and that is the "TA" that counts. That is what it will be in the end, regardless of if I mistime my entry/exit points. In a sense, posting here, doing TA, Astrology, etc. is just fun... IAS |
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@Vokain - I was being honest with the H&S "find" (in opposition to my call down) but when I checked the volume I realized it wasn't one. If the volume comes now it won't really be in the right shoulder as the shoulder is mostly complete (a bit contrary to your chart, which shows high volume in the left shoulder). The idea of the volume is a built up spring in a sense, not just one day of volume and a breakout imo. (edit - I might be wrong here the more I see other charts but we have no volume in the right shoulder at all thus far, and all the docs I see, say you need it. In light of your chart though, I'll pay special attention in case it comes, then it is a nice confirmation).
So, I'm feeling a bit bearish (mid term), but more than anything, confused, like a lot of people around here and tradeview. We are at a really critical level. (Below key resistance both "physically" (chart) and psychologically - $100 level). And the volume that got us up here was some really really large buyers (Satoshi Dice buy?). Yes, they are the market as well, but I don't trust or rather hope for an up move continuing on their account. I'd rather see the common folk bring it up and I don't really see them taking a large part in the move yet.
Without a doubt, your point of "Does the price follow the chart or the chart follow the price?" is the conundrum. Indicators are lagging instruments but intuition isn't. When I look at a chart (neutrally hopefully) I can get things that the indicators only say in part. I'd really like to learn Gann or the like and have a more mathematical based analysis system (but more for fun and as entry points - I'm not a trader per say, just trying to get more bang (BTC) for my buck.)
One last thing, I follow some people using (advanced) mathematical systems (e.g. Gann, Elliot, Fib, etc.) and they aren't right any more than the simpletons that I see. It seems to be a toss up. Though, the really good players are probably not "playing" on the forums and such.
IAS
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I think the inverted head and shoulders is not a good one.
We need volume on the left shoulder and it isn't there.
We need an increase on the right shoulder and it isn't there.
This is rather a confirmation of my call down imo.
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Going back in the historical data of the Money Flow Index indicator you refer to, we have seen it look like it's trending down before yet the price has gone up. Look back to October and end of December. MFI pointed down, yet price went up. This happened during a very, very slow grind back up towards the 2012 top of $16.
I'll say one part, When is the last time we've had two red candles in a row?
June 26/27? I was told that MFI should be used when the stock is trending up and down, not moving sideways. If that is true (and we will see), then it was a false call. Even then, the MFI divergence happened at end of May - early June. Look what happened then - Big move down. But yes, the last time we had two red candles was in that period you mentioned. Not a bit deal, but think about it, it has been a month. That is a long time and the chart is rolling over slightly. The volume isn't there, clearly, but let's see the next 2 or 3 days. |
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Is this a bit of a reverse head and shoulders? Or too much angle?  |
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I say we are heading down in the next 2 or 3 days and hard. I just see it in the recent candles
The recent candles? When I look at the recent candles, I see green on the days with higher volume and red on the lower-volume days. You missed one BIG obvious thing. We'll see what happens, but I'm calling a dark week. mind sharing what, Its About Sharing? I'll say one part, When is the last time we've had two red candles in a row? |
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If I was partly in BTC I would hold some but I would be very very careful. For sure there has been buying pressure but the chart is starting to remind me of the roll from $130. A bit more than that though. |
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I say we are heading down in the next 2 or 3 days and hard. I just see it in the recent candles
The recent candles? When I look at the recent candles, I see green on the days with higher volume and red on the lower-volume days. You missed one BIG obvious thing. We'll see what happens, but I'm calling a dark week. |
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Great thread, I wish I would have thought of it.  I think many of you are taking things out of context or trying to make it more than what the OP was getting at. The feeling/attacks around here is the same as a BTC Bull Long being a bit attacked because he is a BTC Bear short-mid term. Don't shoot the messenger and don't lose site of the message. It is better that we all know the rules. That is the point - period/full stop/Punkt. I don't believe what Frozenlock said about the miners not having a say regarding the POW is in question. It is better off that we know it. -I agree though, that there is no danger anytime soon of the POW being changed. I don't think anyone here said anything to the contrary. -I also agree that there is no chance that a move to LTC would take place due to Scrypt, we would just integrate that (or a combination) into BTC. No sense at all in dropping your investment, some of the infrastructure, etc. just to change POW. I am starting to get a little involved in mining, and personally, I'd "give up" my 15% BTC investment (% in mining) in it if I thought it was good for BTC. Again, I don't think we are near any situation warranting that. IAS |
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I'll take the last 20 shares.
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Has anyone actually calculated what an Errupter in hand would need to sell for to be profitable? I bought one at 270 Euro and am at 15 Euro or so in 5 weeks or there abouts! I just see them as a novelty and to help the network. To buy 3Gh for 1000 is just not worth it right now, though with BFL still behind on the Jalapenos it is a bit amusing. Now, if they drop the price to 100 dollars for 3Gh, then they will sell like Hotcakes. Can you imagine buying, right now 30 Gh for 1000? I think that is possible. Come on Chinese  |
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Interesting, hadn't heard of that company before.
Do you guys know when they are expecting delivery of units for orders placed now?
Thx,
IAS
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I can't remember seeing such a disparate price and money flow divergence in recent memory. The volume is not alarming but the divergence alone is. Look at other signs/indicators that you follow. The Gann guys have mentioned us coming against a wall as well. And we are just below the 100 day ema as well. Stoch turning down. We are sitting below key resistance levels as well. I would not go long here but watch closely.
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A large update regarding all of the above, and initial pricing and order forms will be coming in the next seven days. I'm hard at work getting into pre-production stage, and things are progressing quite nicely Cheers, Garrett PS: Batch one chip pricing temporarily lowered from 0.5 per chip to 0.2 per chip! Hi Garr255 If I'm in Germany, would it be possible to just order 20 or 40 chips (and maybe a couple extras to be safe) from you and have you send them to http://www.burninmining.com/contact/ in Germany to be assembled in one of their units? Not that I favor them, but I thought it would be quicker and and cheaper with customs? I'd like to get in on the .2 per chip BTC price if possible from that first batch. If not, how much would a 20 chip or 40 chip unit cost from the first batch of chips? Thanks, IAS |
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No issues on my end. I've been logged in for the last 6 hours without a disconnect, happily trading away. Just curious where we will move next. My gut says up, thanks to gold and silver. TA says down.
Why does TA say down? I'm not back in due to the resistance we are at as well as 100 and 105. So, I'm watching the battle from the hills (but I got my gun with me ;-) The gold silver thing is interesting. I am pretty sure we are going to see an unraveling of the gold shorts at some point. This is going to expose the dollar. Once the price of gold decouples from a few currencies that are a bit too inflated (not really the dollar yet) we will see BTC pop. Though, BTC may pop first. (I mean up). Even though the USD isn't too inflated yet (that 85 Billion a month they print is not seeing many peoples hands, mostly it's asset investments) the gold supply is starting to dwindle. Watching Max Keissers 2nd to last video was really interesting, strongly recommended: http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-474-max-keiser-421/ |
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buy buy buy!
We are at a critical place, resistance wise - both technical and psychological. I just can't see entering here - too low a reward to risk ratio. If we get through 100 and 105 then we might pop and you will have to act fast, but I say let those with money do the fighting. Especially since I think we need to still capitulate, but who knows there as a few balls drop the wrong way (e.g. - gold shorts unwinding) and BTC can really pop up. What do you all think? IAS |
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Assuming that the recent rise is partly from people desperate for fiat and buying coins to dump on Bitstamp I thought I would check MtGox's facebook page for any clues that they are actually starting to clear the wire backlog. This from yesterday shows no improvement: "Alexandra Sokolova Not kidding, they are dicking me and many other around. I know someone who decided to cash out in 130k April, and wire transfer in seperate transactions thoughout late April and early May, they proccessed some of the smaller ones but all the larger ones are still pending 3 months later."https://www.facebook.com/MtGoxIt is really hard to take part in a rally (I have yet not) when one thinks that the rally is partly driven by people just wanting to move cash off Gox. First we had a 2 week wait and then at the end of that wait, "things are working but it will take another couple of weeks to get caught up". When is that next 2 week period? (Either this or next week - someone?) Gox - $95 Stamp - $87 |
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Whatever it is I don't know if I am feeling to confident about it. I just moved everything I had on Gox off. Better to play it a little safe right now. IMO.
It's possible that this is exactly what the dumper on BitStamp was aiming for. Scary thought... |
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