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1761  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 23, 2013, 03:46:32 PM
Whatever it is I don't know if I am feeling to confident about it. I just moved everything I had on Gox off. Better to play it a little safe right now. IMO.

Agreed. When they prove that everything is ok (and I don't mean by getting a non accountant BTC personality to vouch for them), then all is ok to go back there.
Till then, we should be careful.
1762  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 23, 2013, 02:58:51 PM
I remember the wall observer threads when the market was bubbling. Zoomed out, the buying wall looked like a tsunami, ready to overflood the gradual upward curve of the selling wall. Some made drawings of surf boarders on the buying waves, and on the selling wall, drawed people fleeing from the wave etc.

Since the crash I've seen the inverse, now the selling wall looks like a wave, sometimes tsunami, ready to overflow the gradual upward curve of the buying wall.

I'm surprised these pictures showing the strong selling tsunami and making funny drawings on it are not posted here though. Or did I miss those?

ehheeh, I liked to describe that breaking wave of sells in the same way. It is building as we speak actually. Even though the price is rising, I'm reluctant with that building sell wave there.
1763  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 23, 2013, 02:50:38 PM
so, we will retest 100 $ soon.

We really need to break that resistance.

It really looks to me that what is being bought on Gox is being dumped on BitStamp in a hurry
I think we could be about to see a REAL price dislocation in the coming days. Something wierd is going on.

I'm thinking about this... why would someone do that? What would it get them?
Are they trying to get BitStamp to explode up when the selling there stops? And then folks react on Gox, and so on?
(Sort of like creating a coiled spring on BitStamp. Then they sell their coins higher on Gox at a later time (as the rally continues).

Something just seems weird (as usual) with the movement...

What it gets them is fiat in their bank not a Gox IOU ...
Perhaps they were tying to create a bit of panic selling on Gox by slamming Bitstamp, and doing it the other way round. ie selling coins on Bitstamp and then buying on Gox after. Not a problem if you already own a bunch. And has the same net effect of moving out of Gox.
Didn't really work though in terms of panic. Just cost them more in slippage  Cheesy

I think it's for effect.

If you have 1k in coins, you really need fiat bad enough that you will dump them on Bitstamp at up to $10 lower than you can get them elsewhere? Doesn't ring true to me.

Exactly my thinking... why would someone sell on stamp for $83 instead at gox for 94$ (13% lower). There is some strange info we don't know yet about.

Hmmm, what about Gox actually having liquidity problems. Is it possible they are manipulating the price there to get others to follow and then sell coins to raise $$$?
1764  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 23, 2013, 02:29:55 PM
so, we will retest 100 $ soon.

We really need to break that resistance.

$115 is when I get excited... not before


Isn't 105 kind of key? That is the 3rd lower high. We need to still make a 3rd lower low.
1765  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 23, 2013, 02:19:23 PM
so, we will retest 100 $ soon.

We really need to break that resistance.

It really looks to me that what is being bought on Gox is being dumped on BitStamp in a hurry
I think we could be about to see a REAL price dislocation in the coming days. Something wierd is going on.

I'm thinking about this... why would someone do that? What would it get them?
Are they trying to get BitStamp to explode up when the selling there stops? And then folks react on Gox, and so on?
(Sort of like creating a coiled spring on BitStamp. Then they sell their coins higher on Gox at a later time (as the rally continues).

Something just seems weird (as usual) with the movement...
1766  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] KnCMiner Jupiter Shares GB3 .1/per share = .4Gh/s on: July 22, 2013, 09:50:17 PM
PM Sent
1767  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 06:40:34 PM
Guys, check my charts above, we have a huge BEARISH RSI divergence and look at how violent the last one was (triangle area in my pic - look what followed that divergence with RSI)

I am not an expert on indicators, but isn't the divergence you spotted a hidden bullish divergence? It certainly isn't a regular divergence (indicating bearishness).

That was my first thought so I posed the question on tradingview.com and a couple of guys said it was bearish.
That is confirmable by looking at the last divergence like that (look at the triangle area). - Big drop afterwards.
Nothing is in stone of course. I'm just watching.
1768  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 06:35:10 PM
Must - resist - short - selling.

1769  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 06:12:52 PM
You guys gonna buy the $92 wall or not?

Not buying with that big RSI divergence.
If it corrects at all like the last one, it is going to be ugly.
1770  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 04:41:32 PM
Guys, check my charts above, we have a huge BEARISH RSI divergence and look at how violent the last one was (triangle area in my pic - look what followed that divergence with RSI)
1771  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 04:23:47 PM
Look at RSI between beginning of May and end of May. Same thing, price decreased and RSI came back up to same levels and then price fell shortly there after. So, bearish divergence?
1772  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 04:12:55 PM
I think this (circled areas) is a bullish BEARISH (edit) divergence between price making a lower high and RSI making a higher high. (Or do I have that backwards?)

1773  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 12:44:01 PM
Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.

It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.

What about this indicator:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=0&address=


That looks like a pretty good sign. I wonder how much of that is day trading though?

I doubt they would hit the block chain. While you are trading at an exchange, you're just playing with numbers in the exchange's database. It's only when fiat/BTC are withdrawn that any action occurs.

That said, I'm sure you will get some people who withdraw all of their trading BTC each night for safe keeping.

Of course, I don't know what I was thinking. Thx

Rpietila - I've wondered about what you just brought up. I guess there are still quite a few people that want to unload, even though they are bulls, they take the occasional profits and if you have 10's of thousands of BTC, unloading some on a down move (to buy back later) might not be bad. But what a bounce that will be...
1774  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 12:20:12 PM
Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.

It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.

What about this indicator:

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=0&address=


That looks like a pretty good sign. I wonder how much of that is day trading though?
1775  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 21, 2013, 07:55:02 PM
if this thing doesn't move soon I'm going to have to stop looking.

Barring some major event, it's going to be a slow, and painful for some, slide into the 50's over the next few weeks.

What exactly would cause this, as about 5 million people are very interested about bitcoins and seek an entry point, whereas current holders have pretty much emptied what they want?

I entered into bitcoin at exactly this point in late 2011 and have not regretted.

One billion dollar market cap is nothing.

I think until we see BTC being used for a fair amount of online transactions, the other uses will be secondary and cause it's price to go back down. The online use will probably come, but when?
Countries like Argentina using more of it will help, but that seems a very very small percentage of it's use (which is overall already small).
A store of value and as an investment seems to be the current use. When daily use takes over that use, then we will see the price stay up above a certain level.
Those of us here are overwhelmingly bullish but we realize that BTC is still a little bit away from exploding up and staying up. It might only be months, but it is relatively clear we are not quite there yet.

I'm thinking the PE ratio (if we were to quantify it like a stock) would probably have us pretty low. We will be treated like an internet stock during the boom though, and the "PE" will be quite high imo.
But, in the short to mid term, a correction does make sense as use is still very very small. (But that can change and is changing - the question is when...)

Long term Big Bull, but right now it seems to be deflating a bit. Those big purchases on the recent leg up were probably due to the Satoshi purchase. And hey, more big purchases like that happen (and they will), we are gonna rocket. But when? The last one shocked us...
1776  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 21, 2013, 03:58:29 PM
...
Sure, but the point is that in bitcoin world big money doesn't automatically mean more money, because you can't print and loan bitcoins. That's pretty simple.

You don't think there were tycoons & beggars with gold standard?  We had the silly thing in US 'til the seventies!  As far as lending with Bitcoin, i can talk you through many interesting lending schemes where the total number of bitcoins in circulation is not the ceiling (hint:  when you borrow a million dollars from a bank, do you take it home in a trunk?)

insert large graph here

It was 1971 when Nixon separated gold from USD.

Do you want to say that a country with a currency backed by gold can't get in debt or go bankrupt?
History has so many examples proving the opposite.

Btw , how many times did Greece failed in the past? =)))

I think the thing with gold backed money is it reduces greatly the liquidity, and hence expansion, of the money supple. So those countries generally limit growth, which isn't a bad thing but when there is global competition, I can see why they did it (not that I agree with it fully.)
1777  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 21, 2013, 03:37:22 PM
...
Sure, but the point is that in bitcoin world big money doesn't automatically mean more money, because you can't print and loan bitcoins. That's pretty simple.

You don't think there were tycoons & beggars with gold standard?  We had the silly thing in US 'til the seventies!  As far as lending with Bitcoin, i can talk you through many interesting lending schemes where the total number of bitcoins in circulation is not the ceiling (hint:  when you borrow a million dollars from a bank, do you take it home in a trunk?)



It was 1971 when Nixon separated gold from USD.

What point are you trying to make?

LOL - Are you watching what I was going to type? ehehh

1778  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 21, 2013, 03:11:34 PM
The governments have made a trap for themselves by bailing out the banks, the banks have them over a barrel and they have no way out now.  If they stop QE and bank bailouts then the banks pull the rug out from under the economy and it collapses.  If they don't stop QE and bailouts then the population become so impoverished, desperate and angry that the result will eventually be a huge angry mob turning up at Parliament to lynch the lot of them.

What the governments should have done was to seize all the assets of the failing banks, jail those responsible and then compensate the people who had money in the banks. That of course would have been quite a blow to the economy but at least the total cost would have been finite, and possible to pay off and recover from eventually.  Instead because the government and the banks are the same thing they chose the route of bailing out the banks, now they're desperately scrabbling for money to fill this bottomless money pit, a task that is impossible.  The way that they've responded to this situation means that whatever they do the economy is now doomed.

I have a feeling that will still happen...

Regarding getting out of fiat. We are not going to collapse real soon (relatively speaking). Silver and Gold at these prices is insurance as is BTC. But having some food and water for you and your family AND neighbors is going to be the smart move if the Shit hits the fan. I just hope these evil leaders don't lead us into another war...

We still have time to let BTC correct for a few months and then move fiat into it... (I hope).

The problem is that this does nothing to address the huge debts that the governments have accumulated and continue to accumulate. We will more than likely see bail-in's in future, and banks being shutdown, but the Gov's (and by extension citizens) are still left holding the overflowing bag they have been forced into carrying thus far. And in the crisis scenario you are talking about, we will end up with economic stagnation. Growth will collapse, The Greatest Depression will be finally revealed to all.

Have you seen the TV series 'Continuum' ? Set partly in a future in which corporations rule the world directly after bailing out countries when their govs collapsed. It is not entirely impossible - pull back the curtain and that is what is already going on. The upcoming cirsis could well provide them with the opportunity to just get rid of the middlemen and appear as saviours. Bringing back all those triliions of offshore dollars and DIRECTLY buying countries, by bailing out the bankrupt govs, rather than just buying political influence. All the while being viewed as 'saviours' by the sheeple.

It is *possible*. The corporate endgame ...
And the first thing they would probably do ... issue a new (digital ?) currency

Like you, I agree that none of this is going to happen overnight (until it does!), but we are not getting out of this without a whole world of pain disproportionately doled out to those who least deserve it.


I should probably have said that I don't have much money and live minimally. If I did have 100's of thousands I would not have all of it in Ferns (fiat).
I wasn't offering a suggestion to correct the problem though. I don't see there being one. We are past the point of no return.

Short  term (say 6 months), what is more that likely to lose more value, the USD or BTC? I'd say BTC and it isn't close. So, I'm just hoping and playing that. Before the USD collapses you will see symptoms all over the world of other monies collapsing first. We are not quite there yet, though when it happens I think it will be quite sudden. We are seeing the early symptoms though and I imagine in the next 6 months there might be an escalation with more EU countries needing money and perhaps another bail in. When that next bail in happens, that will be a tipping point (depending on the country of course.)

Anyway, my idea is to get in BTC and then mostly stay there, maybe use 20% to trade in and out and build a bit.

What you said though is a good warning to take heed. We are all talking about a coming collapse but really don't understand how messy (and needed) it will be. By needed I mean getting those in power out of power.

Thx for the series recommendation, I'll look it up.

IAS
1779  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 21, 2013, 11:15:43 AM
The governments have made a trap for themselves by bailing out the banks, the banks have them over a barrel and they have no way out now.  If they stop QE and bank bailouts then the banks pull the rug out from under the economy and it collapses.  If they don't stop QE and bailouts then the population become so impoverished, desperate and angry that the result will eventually be a huge angry mob turning up at Parliament to lynch the lot of them.

What the governments should have done was to seize all the assets of the failing banks, jail those responsible and then compensate the people who had money in the banks.  That of course would have been quite a blow to the economy but at least the total cost would have been finite, and possible to pay off and recover from eventually.  Instead because the government and the banks are the same thing they chose the route of bailing out the banks, now they're desperately scrabbling for money to fill this bottomless money pit, a task that is impossible.  The way that they've responded to this situation means that whatever they do the economy is now doomed.

I have a feeling that will still happen...

Regarding getting out of fiat. We are not going to collapse real soon (relatively speaking). Silver and Gold at these prices is insurance as is BTC. But having some food and water for you and your family AND neighbors is going to be the smart move if the Shit hits the fan. I just hope these evil leaders don't lead us into another war...

We still have time to let BTC correct for a few months and then move fiat into it... (I hope).
1780  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 21, 2013, 10:38:46 AM
...It's about having good money. And by good I mean: scarce, easily transferrable, fungible, easily auditable, accessible to anyone, ownable (deny access to others). Once you have that the economy (= the people) will thrive and prosper because the market can do its thing without money injections bloating it up in various places and distorting price signals.

I just wonder if the market can *still* do its thing without "monetary injections."  It hasn't lived a"natural" lifestyle for so long, shooting meth to wake up, dope to get through the day & horse tranqs to fall asleep -- i doubt it could get clean without barfing all over the place, throwing temper tantrums & cleaning out my wallet for "just one more fix."  What if the best we could look forward to is a series of methadone clinics, AA meetings & ugly relapses?  "If you gonna be like this, might as well get back on the stuff, Lee."

You have to watch some of Max Keisser regarding "quantitative easing". The short answer "they" we can't stop. The debt has grown so large and once we slow the printing of money we can no longer pay for the debt as the interest rates will move up. QE will continue until things pop. (We have a bond bubble as well.) Interest rates are rising anyway. Seriously, it is going to get interesting, very interesting. Talk about the worlds largest social experiment, I say the money one ends as the others have (Boom).

Speaking of which, here is his latest episode - A GREAT ONE - on... Quantitative Easing. Coincidence?
(Worth 2 watches.)

http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-472-max-keiser-217/

Quote
In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert ask whether or not it will ever be possible to unwind quantitative easing as the parallel universe it has created sucks out interest payments and central bankers’ brain cells. They discuss the latest in a long line of market rigging - this time the traders who allegedly rigged QE.  In the second half, Max talks to Pete Comley, author of Inflation Tax, about inflation, how government regulated prices are rising the fastest, and the pound sterling’s century-long decline. Comley also asks where are the protests in the UK against the 11 percent theft of savings by quantitative easing?
Max Kaiser +1

Another thing that people don't seem to understand is that QE is a very effective way to tax the population without them realising it, they don't have to be sent a bill or made aware of it at all.

Let's take the example of the UK economy, for no other reason than that's where I live.  Suppose the real total wealth of the country and the total amount of Sterling in existence is £1trillion, and that it's divided equally between the government and us the long suffering population.  Next the government prints another £1trillion of fiat and keeps it.  There hasn't been another £1trillion of wealth generated to justify that so the only thing that can happen is for the value of Sterling to halve.  Now two things have happened, the first is that rather than having £500,000,000 of wealth the population only have half of that, they might have the same amount of bank notes but they can only buy half as much with them.  The government has £1,500,000,000 in bank notes now, they too may only have half the value they did but they've effectively arranged it so that rather than the government and the people having a 50:50 share in the unchanged real total wealth of the country it's now 75:25, and nobody has noticed.  Obviously these are fictitious numbers but that's not the point.

Yeah and I often wondered why the inflation rate wasn't rocketing (though it is still going up.) So obvious to me now that the Big banks are not sharing in their coming into money. Max talks about this in this and other episodes. And the terrible part (or a terrible part) is that they are causing the price of assets (stocks, homes in some cases and basically where ever they put their money) to artificially go up in their "asset investing" program (The rich get richer and we are making the payments). Instead of we the people getting the money, they are keeping the vast majority in their circles. But what happens when they stop this? Those asset prices will plummet and we are getting there. (Must listen to the show I linked.)

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