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1841  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 13, 2013, 05:48:54 PM
If the market breaks out above, the market will be bullish.

Abandon, the market (Mrs Market) has been bullish for 7 days already (since 6 July).

What will happen or will not happen today has nothing to do with her being bullish or not.

Well yes, it has but it still appears we haven't broken (closed above) the downtrend. That is really what I am looking for and not just one day, but 3 or so...
Not sure where to draw the lines from but either way, we are still below the downtrend.
You could also draw a channel 30 bucks or so below the shown line...

Also, we could have said things were bullish on any of the moves up to hit the downtrend line (which wasn't exactly a line at it's start.  Cheesy


1842  Economy / Speculation / Re: The mother of all traps? on: July 13, 2013, 02:15:52 PM
Wouldn't demand increase with falling price?

It depends on the product and situation, doesn't it? And which came first, the falling price or falling demand? I'm talking manipulation, both physically (gold) and psychologically (trying to lower demand in gold from people.) With gold, they dropped the price in the paper markets to lower the price.

Aren't you basically saying that the demand did go up as the price fell but that they (the bankers, etc.) pulled out all the stops to sell the gold-demanders ETFs, futures, and other substitutes to satisfy them? In other words, they got people to stop demanding gold and start demanding "gold or substitutes," so the supply effectively grew, resulting in a lower price, or lack of price rise.

That would mean that the COMEX and ETFs are stretched even thinner than they were before, which could signal a major breakdown imminent; however, who knows how far they can stretch it?

Jim Rogers, whose opinion isn't one to take lightly, thinks things will come unraveling after the summer elections. He also very recently, after many months, finally changed gold from HOLD to (timid) BUY. Here's Max Keiser and Jim Rogers, with Jim explaining this very issue of paper inflating the supply:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwhzHy7FlEw

Yes and No to your question. But, it is much much darker than ETF's satisfying the public, as it doesn't. The ETF's are psychologically telling the public "Gold is losing value, is not a valuable store of wealth, etc." (So, you got that part right) And something very serious to consider, what Happens with the Winklevoss twins ETF and BTC. THE SAME THING CAN ATTEMPT TO BE DONE, but I doubt it will have the same affect, at least not for a while. It is why I hate the ETF for BTC. Why have an ETF for a digital currency??? Huh?

ETF's or selling gold puts have become a way of "controlling" the physical gold price. Most "regular people" have no idea about gold ETF's (it satisfies nothing), they just buy gold. But the hedge funds listen to what these people say and if they dump the price of gold, hedge funds add to the selling frenzy. It is quite manipulative and very very successful. It is actually like we have two gold markets, digital and physical and the digital rules. Think about that - a digital market for a physical assit sets the price. There is something very very sick about that.

There is next to NO GOLD in our vaults, it has been leased out. Again, look at Germany, they asked for 50% of their gold back and were told "2020". Can you imagine that!!!

I think I saw that video already. I trust what they (and many many others) have said regarding gold. Don't think of gold as an investment. There may come a time, not too far away, when gold will decouple with the US Dollar (as will BTC.) Runaway inflation and a collapsing currency can cause that, though the Dollar is still the world reserve and isn't crashing bad anytime soon, but it probably will.
1843  Economy / Speculation / Re: The mother of all traps? on: July 13, 2013, 11:38:59 AM
Assuming gold isn't overvalued and bitcoin isn't undervalued Smiley

Golds been dropping like a tank though but who knows maybe a bounce is in store
But +1  Smiley

Let me comment about gold as I used to be quite the gold expert. Without a doubt, gold has been manipulated in the paper markets by some very big banks and hedge funds (if not countries). When Bernanke said he would raise interest rates it hit gold hard but his backing off those comments have caused a bounce in gold. Consider these prices a sale that no one knows about. They are just trying to get interest out of gold and silver due to financial problems all over the world, but it isn't working.

A few interesting points:
 
Central banks all over the world are buying up gold right now. Why? (Notice that Cypress got 400 million Euros of gold taken from them for the paper printout, I mean loan, they received.)
Even with the drop in the paper price, the demand has not diminished. This is pretty good proof of a manipulated market. Also, find out more about that at Gata.org . In many places you can't even buy gold - Asian countries are having big problems. Japan comes to mind.
China and Russia are huge importers, don't even think they export anything.


Wouldn't demand increase with falling price?

It depends on the product and situation, doesn't it? And which came first, the falling price or falling demand? I'm talking manipulation, both physically (gold) and psychologically (trying to lower demand in gold from people.) With gold, they dropped the price in the paper markets to lower the price.

There are plenty of things that don't sell well (falling demand) so they drop the price but demand doesn't necessarily go up. When demand starts to rise, supply can go down (if demand can't be met, as with gold) and prices increase. The gold supply can't meet the gold demand right now and prices are dropping (even in an inflationary environment). (Funny thing - The Indian government has actually tried to get their people to stop buying so much gold but can't stop them while the Chinese government encourages gold purchases - go figure. Hmmm, maybe China owning so many USD's is protecting itself...)
Gold has seen a shrinking supply, increasing demand AND a drop in price for years now.

The gold price has been related to dollar strength historically (and also to the times - when things are tough, people buy precious metals). When the dollar fell in price it was due to inflation and that meant it required more dollars to buy the same amount of gold, so gold went up - basic math. That had never changed, until the US's new strong dollar policy came into effect a few decades ago (Maybe around Reagan but don't quote me on that). Starting then, the inverse relationship was halted. What the banks devised was brilliant (and very manipulative). They "leased" gold out of the central banks (at 1/2% interest rate!) to make up the difference between growing demand and shrinking supply. The problem is, that gold was essentially sold, never to come back (they used the term "lease" to get around the law). Now we see the suppression of prices continuing while countries like Germany have asked for their gold back (50% in January of this year) only to be told it will take till 2020 to get it back. This is a confirmation of sorts that the gold is not there. So, banks (maybe even China) are continuing to sell gold futures (puts) to keep the price down so they can start building up reserves. Basically the banks want to keep the price down to buy back what they have "leased" and should be in their vaults (as it is on their books as an asset).

So, with demand rising as much as it has, with inflation rising for years now, we should definitely have not seen a drop in the gold price (and silver.) I can't elaborate this as well as some and if you care to look further into it there are some people out there who really can break it down for you. Start with Gata.org. I think Max Keisser even got into this quite a few times on his show, not to mention other economists have brought it up.
1844  Economy / Speculation / Re: The mother of all traps? on: July 13, 2013, 10:39:21 AM
Assuming gold isn't overvalued and bitcoin isn't undervalued Smiley

Golds been dropping like a tank though but who knows maybe a bounce is in store
But +1  Smiley

Let me comment about gold as I used to be quite the gold expert. Without a doubt, gold has been manipulated in the paper markets by some very big banks and hedge funds (if not countries). When Bernanke said he would raise interest rates it hit gold hard but his backing off those comments have caused a bounce in gold. Consider these prices a sale that no one knows about. They are just trying to get interest out of gold and silver due to financial problems all over the world, but it isn't working.

A few interesting points:
 
Central banks all over the world are buying up gold right now. Why? (Notice that Cypress got 400 million Euros of gold taken from them for the paper printout, I mean loan, they received.)
Even with the drop in the paper price, the demand has not diminished. This is pretty good proof of a manipulated market. Also, find out more about that at Gata.org . In many places you can't even buy gold - Asian countries are having big problems. Japan comes to mind.
China and Russia are huge importers, don't even think they export anything.
1845  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] Bitfury ASIC sales in EU and Europe on: July 13, 2013, 10:33:01 AM
Anyone see this nice Bitcoin difficulty predictor? Looks like October might bring a difficulty over 100 million!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0
I can't imagine pre-ordering for October at the same price and Gh as August. Again 25Gh orders further out should be cheaper as with the 400Gh model.
1846  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: BitCoin mining difficulty forecast spreadsheet I made on Google Docs. on: July 13, 2013, 10:29:48 AM
First, thanks for sharing the great sheet and taking the time to make it up. A huge help and the best I've seen anywhere.

So, what do you guys think about the October 13' prediction, really way over 100 million? That means I most probably shouldn't buy a Bitfury 25Gh for 1240 Euro. Be much much better to just buy BTC's with the money, especially if they come down in price.
1847  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] Bitfury ASIC sales in EU and Europe on: July 13, 2013, 09:45:37 AM
Hmmm, why isn't there a discount on the 25Gh model for October delivery like there is for the 400Gh model?
With difficulty rates rising so much is it actually worth it to get the 25Gh machine in October? Anyone have a guess of the difficulty level then?
If it is at 25 mill (up form 21) right now and it changes every 10 days I think, and many companies are shipping, it seems like in October the difficulty rate could be around 50 mill.
1848  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 09:15:51 PM





We must search hard and find a stock pattern that resembles a cow bell.

Gentlemen, get to work...
1849  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 08:50:25 PM
I appear to have measured the wave's length wrong, and the support breached, so I don't really know what will happen now.





I'm working on an algorithm (very advanced with lots of variables and math) to pull the worthy posts from all the #&%#"! you spew!  Grin
1850  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 08:48:06 PM
I appear to have measured the wave's length wrong, and the support breached, so I don't really know what will happen now.


This needs to stay full screen.
I think the whole problem here is we need more cowbell arrows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjsUf_oIgp0
1851  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 08:32:59 PM
OK, raise your hand if you're a pig and did this:

@ $70
"Oh my God, Bitcoin really is crashing! (like they told us since $130) Sellll!"

@ $65
"Ah ah! I sold, now I can wait for cheap coins!"

@ $65
"Uh... just a rebound, now it's going down again."

@ $75
"Damnit... I can't rebuy now, I'll have less coins than before... I'll just wait for it to go down again and buy then."

@ $85 --> $90 --> $100
"What is happening!?!?!
I can't... my GOD!
Okay... Okay.... I accept my losses and buy now before it goes higher!"

Buy @ +$100.

 Roll Eyes

If you look into my PM's again, I'm going to have to buy me a plane ticket and pay you a visit...
1852  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 08:31:31 PM
I apologize to all the people who have been tricked into panic buying and are now making up stories how Bitcoin is worth well north of triple digits and going into denial mode again. Sad

It cost me 75 bucks, not count the pain and anguish of not playing the 68 bounce... Hey, isn't that a song?
1853  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 08:25:49 PM
And someone just made 200k...
1854  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 07:38:44 PM
I really just wonder if the guys who brought BTC to where it is now with their millions in purchases the last few days, will decide to bring it back down?

It's not a big buy.

It's a bunch of small guys saying "up Up UP!"



eheheh, I have been in Germany too long. I actually had to look up "Hold the bag" as it's not in my active vocab anymore.

How can you say small guys when it was 4000 bitcoins or so bringing things up.... And down we go as I type. (That was a sign).
1855  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 07:20:51 PM
I really just wonder if the guys who brought BTC to where it is now with their millions in purchases the last few days, will decide to bring it back down?
And it just seems like they like using TA too boot.

Basically, if any of us had a few million to throw around, we might be able to do the same...?
1856  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 07:17:33 PM

Nice, a bit like bitcoin.de before they got a bank.
You will still need to wait 3-4 days to get your coins (transfer needs to clear).

No.  You used to have to wait 3-4 days.  Now it is actually instant.

Oops, my bad, I was reading the bitinstant part.
Anytime you add easier access to BTC's you are increasing the market. We get a few more of these and we might have another bubble on our hands.  Cheesy
1857  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 07:08:52 PM

Nice, a bit like bitcoin.de before they got a bank.
You will still need to wait 3-4 days to get your coins (transfer needs to clear).
1858  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 03:26:40 PM
The astrology part has been really interesting and mostly spot on for a few months now.
And summer isn't over yet.  Wink

Same to me, it's very, very interesting. I noted Otoh's post about a glitch about to occur, right before the pirate collapse in 2012. I've been at least paying more attention to this esotericism  

I pulled this off of tradingview via nobulert. Very interesting with moon cycles and BTC.

1859  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 03:11:35 PM

And the sounds are nice. Wish it had a better graph of the bids/asks [with lag, or deltas] but its still very nice.
watching these walls and dumping start i hear in my head MEEP MEEP MEEP MEEP (trucks backing up)


The sounds on http://trading.i286.org/ are so much better spread (low vs high) than on Moody. When things are quiet on Moody and you get a sound, I really can't tell if it is a buy or sell as both are high. On http://trading.i286.org/ the lows are really low and the highs are really high. I hope Moody changes it already.
1860  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 12, 2013, 01:28:51 PM
Bitstamp really starting to deviate again. Lots on the sell side.
Leading or  Huh
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