Prediction for this week...  |
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The green daily candle forming today is VERY similar to that of 25th of June, the day after the previous downmove. It is a bearish candle generally showing a failed attempt at a rally. Today looks like another failed rally after a step down. So if history repeats, we may go sideways for a day or two, followed by a continuation of the downtrend ... or not  Okay, then I'll go long when this pattern is completed. What price should I place my buy order? I am looking at low 80's as the next target for a decent bounce personally Man, are you viewing my posts as I'm writing them?  |
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I almost think Bitstamp gives a clearer picture, much less manipulated than Gox... Just call it a "feeling" but I say we hit 80 ish on Bitstamp in the next few days (edited) (hard bounce). And it may be a very hard bounce, not a reversal, just a fake. I say that as there is so much downward pressure building that when it bottoms it is going to come up hard. I don't think I'll trade this, things might get violent, Kung Fu Violent!  |
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 what is the pattern? Please elaborate. The green daily candle forming today is VERY similar to that of 25th of June, the day after the previous downmove. It is a bearish candle generally showing a failed attempt at a rally. Today looks like another failed rally after a step down. So if history repeats, we may go sideways for a day or two, followed by a continuation of the downtrend ... or not It looks bearish as the upper wick of the candle is long, the lower short, and the body small, meaning the price pushed higher, but failed to hold the gains and closed only marginally above where we opened (if we stay like this). Not a good indicator of strength. Today is also an 'inside' day, meaning the price range is contained within the bounds of yesterday's, making today look even less like a possible trend reversal and more like a pause. These are the two circled areas on the chart How'd I do IAS and Blitz ?  |
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Notice a pattern?  I almost posted that with my charts from before (Yes ) We are on the same page. Wonder what happens the next two days... Nice "brother", IAS |
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According to your graph, starting in December 2013, people start paying you in USD to take their bitcoins?
I like that. Looks like a peak of -33USD/BTC in June 2014.
Ill take anyone's bitcoins at 0USD/EA, right now and thru Dec. 1 2013. Take advantage of this HOT deal while it lasts.
Send them here: 14YDg2knHWoYaDZpUFvuQfFP7kUpPpYL83
You're welcome.
I was looking at that chart and roughly came up with $30 USD as a bottom. (Perhaps lower if you use $2 as a bottom but using that to find a raitio is unrealistic considering the infrastructure being laid as well as growing awareness, bad economy, currency problems, etc.). I won't wait on $30 but will be a close watcher of the bottom as we go down. |
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But, money flow divergences have not been strongly correlated after the last crash. The Chalkin money flow once it went below the zero line did correlate. (Note - Again, this is 2011, not 2013 but it says so. Just notice the prices to the right)  |
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I have analyzed by this method again in 2011:
I do not predict trend in 2013 according to 2011 bubbles.
But, who in 2011 according to this method sold and bought spared large losses (sold for 10 to 12, bought for 2-4, it is more than 250%).
Also in 2011 but the price of most collapsed after breaking Support on about $ 12 and the uptrend started to price first breached the "red line".
On the other hand, in 2011 was vastly different accumulation and distribution.
I still expect that if he falls below $ 92 a declining trend even faster this year. If we break up triangle, uptrend begins.
I believe that will see up to 10 days the end of the triangle.
Well, a symetrical triangle often does run around 3 months and we are approaching 3 months. So, we'll have to keep an eye on the next few weeks. I just get the feeling we are in a longer downtrend. But will pay attention of course for a breakout. It is a bit challenging to stay out of something you believe in... The thing that has me concerned is the divergence of the money flow (up) from the price (down). This is bullish.The Chalkin money flow is not showing this however, though it often breaks up once crossing below the line, so something to keep an eye on.  |
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Dalib, I should have looked at 2011 and compared how the EMA's acted. The charts are eerily similar. Gonna have to watch the next few weeks closely... 2011 (Note, it is 2011, for some reason the date is wrong, but you can see the prices off to the right.)  2013 |
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Here is a chart I follow from that Twitter guy I mentioned - Sir Bits a lot... I'll keep an eye on his points...  Bit of a daft chart. Why not extend those purple lines back to Arpil/May - then they would look almost flat and pointing at the current price! Agreed, I thought the same but he is just looking at the move after the correction. Anyway, the guy is a programmer and claims to have found a "fingerprint" for some manipulation in the BTC. The thing about charts is even when you do what is accepted they still are not exactly consistent nor accurate. So, I'm going to see where his goes... |
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Here is a chart I follow from that Twitter guy I mentioned - Sir Bits a lot... I'll keep an eye on his points... |
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Funny, was just going to post this and see you (Phoenix1) curious - just a coincidence if you believe in them. I'm not going to play any bounces right yet. I'm going to see if any rally takes us through the 100 day EMA. We just crossed (under 10 day EMA) for the first time in a looooong time. The 20 day or so EMA hasn't crossed and to be honest I have just played around with the 10 and 100 day - don't know that it is an accepted method. The 10 day SMA has crossed under the 10 day EMA (slightly bearish) and that is accepted so I will still wait and look for strong confirmation of a reversal. Regarding the hourly candles - well, the 4 and 1 hour are not doing anything and even the 15 min charts look the same. $100 is a key psychological barrier. And even if we break it, do we stay above it for long? Next few days will be interesting and I'm curious is our WE dumper (and perhaps rescuer) re-appears.  |
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Well, well, well...back to double digits again. Love all the bearish talk from the "bulls" who "saw this coming". Pure comedy. Seriously, this is funnier. (There is nothing funny about backing up opinions with charts and other evidence.)  Honestly I found every fellow piss orange ignore button guy to be the most enjoyable reading experiences on this forum. But that's not me, I've found this opinion common with many people I hold respect for. (Many of which who don't even have a highlighted button) u jelly? Looks like you are having a competition for the darkest ignore button.  No, to be honest I don't get bothered by 99% of the guys. That Jar whatever guy that seems to annoy so many I find harmless. I have no one on ignore. The thing about coinseeker is that he has a brain but also has bi polar disorder ( ). One minute he is friendly and then the next he mixes fact with fiction and insults. But I don't dislike him (or anyone here - though Shroomskit is probably the one that really annoys - so, a bit like a teacher). Sort of like a family where everyone doesn't get along great but the diversity keeps things interesting. |
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Well, well, well...back to double digits again. Love all the bearish talk from the "bulls" who "saw this coming". Pure comedy. Seriously, this is funnier. (There is nothing funny about backing up opinions with charts and other evidence.) |
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I look at you (Rampion), Frozenlock, Blitz, etc. and know "I don't know as much as you guys". But that is good. It is "wise" to know that you don't know. It is ignorant to say you know when you don't know. And I'm not trying to pull a "known known" Rumsfeld, but there is some truth in the false if you pay attention. You know just as much as any one of those people you have named. Don't be fooled into thinking they know and see things you don't, they may have more trading experience than you have but bitcoin is quite a unique market where we all are learners. The bitcoin market is also so small and so many things can influence the price both ways that nobody really can predict what's going to happen. Yeah the chart looks bearish right now, but charts always look bearish until it hits a bottom and the trend reverses. And even then the reversal only becomes apparent weeks or even months after we have hit the bottom, and bears probably will still be convinced it's all a bull trap until we go way higher than 150. I also wonder what would have happened if USD withdrawals never had been locked at MtGox. The bid side and the entire market depth was actually building up quite nicely again up to that point and things were starting to look better. MtGox becomes less and less liquid after each of these issues pops up and since most big holders don't like an illiquid market and have no real alternative it becomes kind of like a vicious cycle. I guess that's good for the decentralization of exchanges but it's certainly not good for the price. You bring up a good point and it has crossed my mind, actually a few good points, but focussing on the bold. I saw what you are talking about but the thing that still worried me was the sells. They were large and not always showing up in the books. I got the strong feeling that if things started to run up, then they would hold off on the sells, only to unload later. I'm curious what others think about this in general. (large size of sells relative to buys) I've mentioned it a few times and have yet to get a reply - Watching the sells closely shows me they are generally larger than the buys, and quite noticeably so. To me, that means we are probably going down still. It wasn't like that too long ago. I started to notice it (though perhaps it was happening before) when we were rounding off that $130 level). I really wanted to sell, but my emotion got in the way. It's all monopoly money in the end, so it doesn't bug me much. I really wonder if there is a way to investigate sell sizes. Thus far I find no technical indicator that looks at that specifically. Thanks for the words, I guess we are really all seeing things from our own perspective and each perspective is valuable. Like I said, I try to look at all forms of data, no matter how "out there". Funnily enough, the Bitcoin astrology chart was having some heavy transits happen and I didn't like it. Also summer in general (astrologically) is not a good time for BTC due to some of the transits. But winter into spring things change. Yeah, I know, it sounds crazy, but like I said, I look at all data. (I still remember Krishnamurti saying "See the truth in the false.") I don't give it more weight than anything else but I look at it. If it makes you all feel better, I only give it like 10%-20% weight or so and only at certain times. But when things look really ugly, I pay special note. |
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We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox
it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily) I won't chance it. Watching the tape, the sells are just too big relative to the buys. It seems like we have regular guys buying and some really heavy sellers selling. I won't risk that. Yes, technically, I say bounce, but watching the tape, they are not hiding the sell sizes very well. It seems almost orchestrated. I'll let the market calm down a bit before re-entering... However, I myself still do very well. I just watched it last fall after a couple of hours (about 7) before we returned over 100 Today (so far) looks even weaker with demand. I'm really still learning to go with what I "feel" deeply and what the chart is sort of telling me. I'm not ready to jump in. I totally believe you though. It is a skill or art to know this (short term vs long trading and such). Way back when (internet bubble) I could look at a candlestick chart and just interpret sooo much from it. BTC doesn't speak to me like that. I don't trust what I'm seeing in just the chart alone. The market data adds a layer (and yet it is manipulated often) that we/I use. Again, watch the sizes of the sells. I'm sure they will adjust them to hide them better but right now and for the last few weeks, the sell sizes have been noticeably bigger than the buys. I get the feeling like someone is playing us. So, no matter what the chart looks like, I don't trust it - go deeper. (BTW - If anyone knows of some way to monitor the size of sells relative to buys, I'm all ears.) The timestamp is key here also. (e.g. - You can see one seller put out a sale via a program and try to break it down, but it is all the same to the second, quite obvious. Nothing before or after it, stands out.) Something a great great friend and teacher taught me: Everything is data. Don't try to interpret the data. Just observe the data. No matter what you are talking about. So, with BTC, look at the charts, look at the posts, look at the USD, economy, banking, even esoteric things, etc. It is all data - don't judge it. Don't manipulate or organize the data. Just observe it. (Watching the matrix may help )That is hard as we are conditioned unconsciously to see things a certain way. Anyway, as I said before, if you can separate some of the more emotional parts (they are data - not wrong or right - you have to find out how true), from the mind, intuition, etc and develop an overall picture... Well, that is pretty powerful. But if you really get there, I don't think you (I), would be here. eheheh But you can sort of taste it as it comes your way. Grasshopper goes... |
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Just to throw a little bit of a monkey in the wrench (sorry, I'm in Germany and have lost some of my English)... Check out this guys Twitter - https://twitter.com/SirBitsALotI feel he is on to something. I look at you (Rampion), Frozenlock, Blitz, etc. and know "I don't know as much as you guys". But that is good. It is "wise" to know that you don't know. It is ignorant to say you know when you don't know. And I'm not trying to pull a "known known" Rumsfeld, but there is some truth in the false if you pay attention. One of the wisest statements that I ever read and it stays with me, I'm paraphrasing but J. Krishnamurti said something like "Be careful of the man that says he knows." I don't know but I'm learning. And when you (you know who you are ) come across others that clearly know more than yourself,... LISTEN, LEARN and integrate. That is what I'm learning to do... Peace out and rock on guys, Bitcoin Bear but not Bitcoin Blind, Watching, IAS ps - Thanks for the kind words Rampion. Cool that we are all learning together... phoenix1 - Thanks also for your kind words, but I really don't know as much as those other guys (I think). Perhaps I'm less cryptic and sarcastic than Frozenlock though . But I can help in my narrow scope of Candle analysis and intuition (if I care to listen past my enthusiasm - tough one). Dare I say a bit of a mirror going on, if you know what I mean (and I know you do!) pss - and after all that, this "thing" can turn on a dime and leave us behind. There are certain unknowns that I know I know but am not quite knowing, but feel... Be careful... |
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Well, not looking as bad as before, but clearly everyone is following Gox:
Definitely I Agree. Seems that the last minimum ($ 93 on a $ 88 MtGox) finally increased demand could be be temporary "double bottom". But for a few hours may be different. Notice that Bitstamp doesn't want to go below $90 ish. Sort of interesting seeing the spread go from $10 one minute to $4 the next, depending on the price. I am not chancing this market to make a profit. The size of the sells just doesn't sit right with me. People are unloading and regular guys like us don't see it. Well, I think I see it , so won't enter yet. This is not a stock, currency, etc. We have a beast one must be careful with. Below a certain volatility you can trade it, but above that, just better to get out of the way... |
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We will see $100 again before we see $89 on MtGox
it looks like we could bounce (at least temporarily) I won't chance it. Watching the tape, the sells are just too big relative to the buys. It seems like we have regular guys buying and some really heavy sellers selling. I won't risk that. Yes, technically, I say bounce, but watching the tape, they are not hiding the sell sizes very well. It seems almost orchestrated. I'll let the market calm down a bit before re-entering... |
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I don't see any cheap coins yet, not even at Bitstamp.
Right, i expected this answer. Because this is the standard answer i get everytime when i ask that question. Bitcoin goes down, people here are extremely happy and scream about cheap coins, you ask them how much they bought, they tell you they're not buying yet. There has been a lot of good advice about the price around here lately. Rampion posted some good information. I was a bit behind him in picking up on it but once I did I posted till no tomorrow the charts and what I saw. I actually called it pretty damn accurately. I just wish I would have gotten out at $130 when I first suspected things and not at $107. Anyway, thanks to Rampion for making me look deeper. One has to separate their feelings here, at least to a degree. Anyway, going forward, we've mentioned the resistance levels. Low 90's first, but I would be very very careful there as the 100 barrier is broken and that is a big psychological thing. Next is around $82, roughly. Then I have $68, $60, low $50's, then $20's. But this isn't in stone. You have to watch the volume and see how the price is affecting things on the charts. I'm super bullish about BTC, like most of us here, but when we see the charts clearly saying down, don't fight the feeling... I'll sacrifice some profit (though BTC isn't really about that primarily for me), in order to be a bit more certain of getting in at the right time. All the fun is in LTC/XRP right now - anticipation of how high they will go. Not how low like in BTC... Hate this but true for the moment! Notice my post about LTC in this thread. I think it is a really valid question and I'd love to hear some responses. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.2760Basically, do you want to invest in LTC while BTC is coming down and it seems LTC is more pegged to BTC than it is to the dollar? If today is any indication, then no, though it is a big down day... I watch LTC for a lot of time (since it was 0.007$) and I agree that when BTC/USD falls, LTC/BTC goes up but LTC/USD goes down too. So in times where BTC will probably lose value, like now, it would be wiser to go fiat. On the other hand XRP since 19 April gained value in BTC and USD terms - so I thought that it is an even better alternative than fiat (if BTC drop in general). But lately XRP too loses in dollar terms when BTC goes down... XRP has how many BILLIONS of shares? I don't care, but I am not going to invest in a debt based currency. Been there and done that, all of us have. XRP's benefit, from what I have read and heard, is to help reduce attacks on the network by making it costly. That sounds good, but when fiat money is endless I'm not so sure. When BTC guys can't quite grasp XRP and when most people can't quite grasp BTC, I think it's just safe to stay away from XRP. Excuse me for being a Debby Downer but something about XRP gives me a bad feeling. I for sure would use the network to get in and out of BTC, but it SHOULD NOT BE an investment. That is not it's purpose and if they make it that, question it thoroughly... |
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