$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.
no dice. high-volume doji marks the short-term bottom:  we're still being held up by the mid-term moving support. --arepo 4 hour candles, how "short-term" are we talkin? Most likely scenario is a break through $825 by the end of the week then consolidation at this price |
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Should consolidate around $790 today; consolidation at $825 by the end of the week.
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But i get the point, again a ton of naive people without any market experience thinking that future is just honey and butterflies :-)...
I ask the question differently, is there anyone that thinks, that bitcoin price is still in a buble stage and that it will still go down (Around 450) an stabilizes itself around this value for several months?
I honestly don't believe we are going to stabilise at $450 for several months. There is no evidence this will happen. Guess I'm more of a honey and butterflies person really. Agree. I think you saw 450 for the last time, ever. Personally, I'd like to see it again but I'd be very surprised to see it get even as low as 550/600. ....unless some significant bad news came out. Not like China but out of the US or Europe. Do you know how annoyed I am that I didn't take advantage of $450? Five weeks ago after some thinking about it I calculated $450 as the bottom - no joke - but then being a bit of a noob and getting all freaked out by the China news, when the time came I didn't catch it, not even close! |
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Mtgox: 500 Support @ $795
Things might get interesting.
It would be interesting to see it get dumped through, again. In fact Id get a real laugh if one of the whales just dumped through the whole book all the way to 400. I'll head to the whale temple. Make offerings at the Whale Temple for successful bear trading!  In fact I should add an address. |
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Maybe I will stick around to rob more of your guys money.
Look out for the highwayman! He's coming to get your coins! |
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But i get the point, again a ton of naive people without any market experience thinking that future is just honey and butterflies :-)...
I ask the question differently, is there anyone that thinks, that bitcoin price is still in a buble stage and that it will still go down (Around 450) an stabilizes itself around this value for several months?
I honestly don't believe we are going to stabilise at $450 for several months. There is no evidence this will happen. Guess I'm more of a honey and butterflies person really. |
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Rumour time! TIL that a major US hedge fund investor will announce a significant position in #bitcoin within the next several days. Happy New Year! Source: https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/417769054326108160More details here: The investment firm has apparently raised even more money than SecondMarket's Bitcoin Invesment Trust. I'll repost with details and firm names once the full story is pieced together. if someone buys a Significant amount of bitcoin all within a couple days, will that make the price dip or spike? I read in another post someone saying that it would cause the price to spike but that doesn't make sense to me. Someone buying a lot would cause the price to spike, that's logical, right? Depends if someone dumps it in their lap but usually yes - if someone really wants to buy then they will buy upwards! |
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Good post.
Yes I agree with what you say: the sentiment for many is "too late". But beforehand there wasn't so much media attention to keep people informed that Bitcoin hadn't gone away and was in fact strengthening; now the media will be all over Bitcoin developments from Jan 1 2014. That's why I think the run up will come sooner than many expect.
It's also becoming much easier to buy Bitcoins, which is a big plus. When I opened my first wallet, exchange account etc. it took a while to learn to trust it. I bet a lot of people made some initial enquiries into wallets or got half way through the process of registering on an exchange before the crash, and these people will pick up quickly from where they left off.
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mining becomes less and less relevant as bitcoin grows
Sorry if I have misunderstood something but mining is actually necessary to keep the blockchain updated with payments. It is therefore important to factor this into the argument for the future. When Bitcoin takes off as a payments system (both Bitcoin transactions and Fiat > Bitcoin > Fiat [think Bitpay] transactions) then miners are powering the engine that keeps this system going. It will be necessary that they remain profitable in order that they stay in business to power the system - the price of Bitcoins must be satisfactory to the miners - but you should also remember that they will take a share of transaction fees within the system, which should count for more, a lot more, in the future. No one is guaranteeing miners anything, least of all profitability. If they are necessary and useful, transaction fees will go up to replace the reward Bitcoins lost per block. Note this requires that users must feel _some_ pain if they want timely transactions. I think miner's profitability will also naturally and intentionally get priced in to Bitcoin if the system keeps going as is. |
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I recently learned I am one-degree of separation from a great whale manipulator. Manipulation is happening. I also learned that the exchanges realize this and are cracking down on it behind the scenes (they obviously don't want to come out and discuss this openly). And besides, as the market grows, manipulation is becoming more difficult anyways.
But it's important to note that the great whales do not want bitcoin to crash to the point where it truly damages confidence. They know they cannot quickly cash out 100,000 BTC and nor do they want to because they believe that bitcoin is the future of money.
In fact, the more I think about "manipulation" and "whales" the less I see it as manipulation in the first place. What's wrong with putting up a 1,000 BTC sell wall to try to drop the price? By doing this you are risking a larger whale eating your wall in a single bite--live by the sword and die by the sword it seems.
In conclusion, the great whales--more often than not--are allies of bitcoin.
+1 The exchanges are of course wise to this and they have strategies implemented and are developing more. I was chatting with an employee of one of these exchanges recently about it. And the whales are not in a conspiracy as some might fear. Take Loaded's word for it. As growth continues they will have less power also. |
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My quote was essentially this. Give it three years. Bitcoin will be $10 or $5,000+ a coin.
Three years is much too slow for Bitcoin!  |
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don't know what huobi is
so do I, explain,please Just another Chinese exchange with fake volume. Barely worth mentioning. That's the spirit! |
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Maybe, I mean what do I know. But I still think 2014 will be a good year for bitcoin in terms of merchant adoption... but I think we will see those benefits (more money going into btc, significant increase of market cap due to merchant adoption) in 2015. I also think there will be more bad news in 2014 due to governments and banks being scared, and this will cause panic sells and make for a bumpy ride in 2014. Especially because more noobs are getting access to BTC.
I think people will want to get in early generally speaking. And for every noob who invests a week's wages there will be people already in for a while substantially increasing their investments - I believe there aren't that many "all in" at the moment |
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Here's my prediction:
Everyone is expecting amazing results in 2014... like super bullish results. But guess what, bitcoin doesn't give a fuck about what everyone thinks. In fact, it would rather do the opposite and be unpredictable like it's always been.
So 2014 will start slow, very slow.... I think it'll take until March or April for it to reach back to $1000-$1200. The highest it will go in 2014 is between $2000-$2500. I'd be more willing to bet it will go down from that ATH to around $1000-$2000 by the end of 2014.
Noobs will think bitcoin has stabilized to this value for good. The people who invested expecting 1000% returns will be disappointed, maybe even scared, and start cashing out. 2015 will begin slow as well. Stupid fucks form Business Insider and Forbes will make articles saying "has bitcoin lost its fire?" showing charts and talking about how it's not the hot investment as it used to be. Morale will be much lower than it is now (way too many bulls currently, imo).
And then sometime in 2015 bitcoin will skyrocket to 5 figures. No one will expect it and it'll probably happen in a matter of weeks. Those who hodled will be rewarded. People will start noticing and bitcoin will start gaining hype again. There will be another 'bubble' when it reaches 5 figures but from there on out bitcoin gaining or losing $1000 within a few days or a week will be normal volatility. It will reach new ATH's of $20K-$30K in 2015.
I'll bump this post when time comes so everyone can bow down and worship me for being right.
Your timescale is much too long. Why would it fall out of the limelight now? This is tipping point so by 2015 it will either be nice and high (around $5,000 minimum I think) or completely out (which I believe is not likely). Just my black and white opinion there. |
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I can see why some people are still so bullish now. They see action but don't know what huobi is and they think all this is happening naturally.
Interesting analysis. I can see why some people are so bearish now. They can look into the future and disregard new investors in bitcoin as a potential factor in price. They think houbi is the one to rule us all. I'm actually bearish for two reasons. First is huobi and second is even WITH huobi, this still looks like that weak trend in May that fell into final capitulation. So combine those two and I am extra bearish. May is a whole world away now though, don't you think? How much media attention, investment, start ups, countries giving their opinions (most of them quite positive) was there back then? How many key events - pending US clarification (looking very positive) for example - were just a few weeks ahead back in May? Things are very different now aren't they? What is your take on this side of things? |
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I wish I was a noob.
It's not that great I can tell you. |
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Amazing to read all the "IT's MANIPULATION!" posts. Where's that meme of the kid screaming when you need it?
Amazing to see so many naive people (probably young) who think market manipulation does not exist. Manipulators have existed since the creation of markets, in all markets. You're being too idealistic. Wake up. You don't live in a happy altruistic candy world. Not saying at all that it doesn't exist, just that a lot of people seem to shout "manipulation" when frustrated the price isn't going their way! I think I even did it myself once. Let's face it as well, things are getting so complicated it's also getting harder to point out every case of manipulation now. Sometimes its the bots, sometimes its noobs, etc. |
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But the holidays don't negate market sentiment and proximity to the recent hype cycle, IMO.
Recent? Don't know if you noticed but it's ongoing! |
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Amazing to read all the "IT's MANIPULATION!" posts. Where's that meme of the kid screaming when you need it?
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