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edit - my bad, bad clark moody chart. No gap up today.
Still, a strange market.
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If we break above 104/105 then maybe I get back in. But right now something just doesn't feel right. The order book / market depth is looking so much better the last few days and I don't trust it. For sure it is loaded up below the current price, but why isn't it moving up if there is so much there? Watching smaller buys go through and a rising price followed by dumps of coins again and again (that aren't showing up in the market depth as they are market buys (I got that right?)) doesn't feel right with me. Another thing - Looking at the sales that went through before as a bunch of sales up to 100 shares (were 2 of those) and checking the times, they were all within 2 seconds of each other = same seller? Totaled around 500 - 600, which isn't much but it did knock things or slow things down again. Anything can happen, it can be a bear or bull trap - a bit of evidence for both. We just have to pull our resources together and find out.  |
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Wait, Slovenia is where Bitstamps bank is located. And Slovenia is close to a banking crisis? Info here please, that is bad...
Yes, Bitstamp uses Unicredit in Slovenia, so any fiat is at the mercy of the Slovenian banking system. I don't have any ref's at hand, but if you do a bit of googling you will see that Slovenia has been claiming they don't need a bail-out (as all good politicians say right up until they do  ) and other's say they are the next domino to fall. I have no idea, but it was one of the reasons that I moved my cash off the exchange when I turned medium term bear. Not that I trust the UK banking system, but I am pretty sure Slovenia will fall before it ! So for now I can play with BTC on Plus500 and when the price is right I can buy here to track price , transfer fiat over there and buy BTC. Also instant and free to deposit fiat. Works for now ... Thanks and yes I did a search. WOW! I should have checked sooner. But, the good news is that they just got a lot of cash to inject into the system to help the banks out. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-16/mercator-sale-helps-stabilize-slovenian-banks-amid-fiscal-crisis That should go a while. But I have to come up with a better plan. Bitcoin.de doesn't have a bank so trades take like 2 or 3 days to finalize and people sometimes won't even send the money should BTC tank after the sale. So, don't sell during a downmove there. Bitstamp, like Gox, doesn't cope well with lots of people trying to move cash at the same time (not as bad, but definitely lags a few days). Whatever you do, make sure you are fully verified wherever you trade and have tested their system for withdrawing your cash. I put cash into Plus500 and then pulled it all out to see what would happen. It was fine the first time, but the next time they wanted extra verification, which I have done now. Make sure all of that is in place wherever you are trading. If there is ever a rush for the exits, you need to know that there will be no extra delays for paperwork. I am pretty sure that you already know this ... just saying for the benefit of anyone who does not. Thanks again, and no I didn't know that! My plan anyway (and perhaps not the smartest thing to do right now) as if things get rough with the banking system, I would just buy Bitcoins and get them out of there faster than you can say "transfer via SEPA". I would rather not even chance something going wrong with during the SEPA if there is a banking problem. I should do the verification if need be just for a regular transfer out (but I don't see me doing a non BTC transfer out). I didn't notice the verification on their site though, just a form you fill in from within your Bitstamp account with your Bank account details. (Perhaps the verification happens after that, as you alluded to them asking you for extra verification - which is a great idea, better to do that then get robbed.) I hope this was useful to anyone watching... |
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Wait, Slovenia is where Bitstamps bank is located. And Slovenia is close to a banking crisis? Info here please, that is bad...
Yes, Bitstamp uses Unicredit in Slovenia, so any fiat is at the mercy of the Slovenian banking system. I don't have any ref's at hand, but if you do a bit of googling you will see that Slovenia has been claiming they don't need a bail-out (as all good politicians say right up until they do ) and other's say they are the next domino to fall. I have no idea, but it was one of the reasons that I moved my cash off the exchange when I turned medium term bear. Not that I trust the UK banking system, but I am pretty sure Slovenia will fall before it ! So for now I can play with BTC on Plus500 and when the price is right I can buy here to track price , transfer fiat over there and buy BTC. Also instant and free to deposit fiat. Works for now ... Thanks and yes I did a search. WOW! I should have checked sooner. But, the good news is that they just got a lot of cash to inject into the system to help the banks out. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-16/mercator-sale-helps-stabilize-slovenian-banks-amid-fiscal-crisis That should go a while. But I have to come up with a better plan. Bitcoin.de doesn't have a bank so trades take like 2 or 3 days to finalize and people sometimes won't even send the money should BTC tank after the sale. So, don't sell during a downmove there. |
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Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.
I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD. edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources) YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M. ... and there are only 12M existing ). The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world. Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you? I would not put it that strongly ... they are just feeding a nation/world's addiction to gambling Yes, I know they are UK based. I feel safer (for now) having fiat with them than in an account in Slovenia, which is rumoured to be on the edge of a banking crisis. When I think its time to actually buy and hold BTC I will use my Bitstamp account. Meanwhile Plus500 is quicker and safer from my experience. No wallet to get hacked and a nice fiat paper trail. Leverage and shorting is another issue ... really depends on the net house position, on which we can only speculate. Bad risk management, yeah, could get fucked. I would be more worried if they only traded Bitcoin. As it is, they have other revenue streams. I agree, if they lose and go bust, customers are left holding the bag, but that's the same if an exchange gets hacked/closed down. We are always on the wrong side of these things and always will be . It's part of the game right now. Wait, Slovenia is where Bitstamps bank is located. And Slovenia is close to a banking crisis? Info here please, that is bad... |
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duly noted but vetoing  i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha and thats why BTC is hard to TA. the sentiment here turned bullish  You might be right but at the same time wrong. Look at my comment above on how the order book looks good but those sells keep smacking it down (And they are not showing up there.) |
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duly noted but vetoing i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha I'm split. You are right - the order book is looking good and has been for days (at least within $5-$10 of the current price). But notice when we start moving in those sells just hit us down again? It just happened a few minutes ago as I was watching the Gox market. Maybe 350 - 400 BTC sells came through in batches of 50-100 or so. That has been happening for a while, so I don't exactly trust the order book. |
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Anyone see another negative divergence? We are again having an up day on lower volume then the day before. That happened on the rise last week (and then we came down to current levels).
Careful careful here though, you never know when another move will happen. But that negative divergence is a warning sign, quite reliable...
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First, let me say relying just on TA with BTC is risky but I do use it a lot.
TA for sure works. That is not really the question, the question is how often and how accurately. Looking at my (past) record, I'd say it works more times than not and a lot better than guessing. That has been proven over many many years.
If anyone thinks TA doesn't work I'd say you have to try it for a few months after learning it pretty well (spending a couple hundred hours studying and practicing).
To define how it works, that is a tough one. The underlying things we see in a chart are composed of many variables (e.g. emotion, economics, fundamentals (yes!), etc.)
So, I use TA but with BTC I am a lot more careful with it as a lot of BTC is driven on sentiment (aka The world situation). We could be going down fairly hard and if another country pulls a Cyprus - BOOM UP. And vice versa in a sense. But I think all of us know that, the thing is, the world is a tough place today. Some currencies/economies are getting closer and closer to collapse by all accounts and to me, that will be the real determiner - after all it is in large part why BTC is where it is.
Unless you get consistant results above the 50% marker, TA has no added value in BTC and a coin toss suffises. if you only get 30% and don't consider it the process to get above the 50% marker no value is added. you hit the nail on the head that BTC is mostly emotion driven. It is not backed by anything then (fragile) trust. If you have ALL the parameters you can use TA effectively. Marketcap is small and whales are big, reducing your chances of success. Just keep that in mind. Lets say I used it to call the bottom a few times and was 100% correct. I don't overuse it and I don't underuse it. I use it as much as it seems to remain fairly accurate. And of course I adjust. All valid points, I don't really think we can make this a black and white thing as it is a bit more than that... |
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It's not the same at all.
Weather forecasting is running mathematical models through a simulator, looking for convergent outcomes, and assigning probabilities to them. It is mathematics based on science. It is not always accurate -- that is the nature of probability; and the models can always be improved.
Technical analysis is based on the assumption that markets are predictable in behaviour. TAs will tell you that they are modelling market emotion. However they are not -- you will never see any such model presented. Rather they are using patterns in historical price and volume to predict future price and volume. Usually based on premises (such as Eliott Wave) that are 100 years old.
You will see lots of fancy indicators -- however they are all based on the same raw data: historical trades (There is no other data available). They are not even remotely modelling the underlying users and markets at play.
Finally, another way that TA and weather forecasting is different... consider this. If TA could even remotely accurately model behaviour, the behaviour itself wouldn't happen and the price wouldn't move. This is the key as to why TA is effectively worthless. Is the TA influencing the market, or the other way around? Read around and you will soon realise it is the former. TAs are only market oracles to their herd of market sheep.
Yes, comparing TA to weather forecasting was a bad example, as you have described. TA is not effectively worthless, as you have stated, because I have used TA to make profitable trades. If I did not use TA, I would be stuck in a losing trade right now. You don't know that. It could be simply luck, maybe there are just as many people making losing trades using their TA but only the profitable ones will post here about the wonders of it. Successful traders use it every day to make money trading stocks, commodities, and currencies. I don't understand how you can say it's worthless. You have people on Wall Street, working for immensely profitable institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and their only job is to trade. These companies recruit from universities such as Harvard, Yale, you name it. And what do they teach them? TA. What do they use to trade? TA. These hotshot traders make those trades with TA and bring in the dough and help make these banks rich. Why would GS hire traders and teach them TA if it was worthless? Perhaps TA only works when enough people use it and interpret it the same way? If you get enough sheep to follow your method it will automatically become a succesful trading strategy. Not so sure if that's the case in bitcoin, it's kind of a different creature with lots of inexperienced traders who stubbornly follow their own method like myself. First, let me say relying just on TA with BTC is risky but I do use it a lot. TA for sure works. That is not really the question, the question is how often and how accurately. Looking at my (past) record, I'd say it works more times than not and a lot better than guessing. That has been proven over many many years. If anyone thinks TA doesn't work I'd say you have to try it for a few months after learning it pretty well (spending a couple hundred hours studying and practicing). To define how it works, that is a tough one. The underlying things we see in a chart are composed of many variables (e.g. emotion, economics, fundamentals (yes!), etc.) So, I use TA but with BTC I am a lot more careful with it as a lot of BTC is driven on sentiment (aka The world situation). We could be going down fairly hard and if another country pulls a Cyprus - BOOM UP. And vice versa in a sense. But I think all of us know that, the thing is, the world is a tough place today. Some currencies/economies are getting closer and closer to collapse by all accounts and to me, that will be the real determiner - after all it is in large part why BTC is where it is. |
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Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes.
The ones who see things differently. They’re not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them.
About the only thing you can’t do is ignore them. Because they change things. They invent. They imagine. They heal. They explore. They create. They inspire. They push the human race forward.
Maybe they have to be crazy.
How else can you stare at an empty canvas and see a work of art? Or sit in silence and hear a song that’s never been written? Or gaze at a red planet and see a laboratory on wheels?
While some see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.
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Look, we can play this game forever.
Fact is if this is real and he is not trolling then pretty much everyone, with the right background or not, would agree he is not mentally sane. Period.
It doesn't get much clearer than a case like this.
Unless you want to be all political correct like you. Which never helped anyone, anywhere.
Sanity is a very relative term. If 'sanity' is the norm I would say from my point of view that most people are not sane There is no monopoly on 'reality' and (almost) everyone views the world through lenses clouded by their own personal life experience That's what makes us human Add any label that makes your experience more comfortable and lets you believe you 'understand' most people thought I was insane when I went all in on BTC at $3 and quit my job and mined with 50 computers, slept 2 hours a night and trolled this forum 20 hours a day. Muahahhaah I showed them who is crazy! muahhahahaha~ QED ... go against the norm and think/act outside the box ... society says you are insane Nice one Goat Three great example posts and reality/normality should not need to be explained to someone who's handle is "ShroomsKit" - seriously, how ironic? |
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Rpietila, if you are real then you are obviously very mentally ill (not attacking you here, just interested).
I have friends in medicine concerned with brain, mostly neuroscientists and neurologists. Would you be surprised to learn that it is becoming more and more acknowledged among academia that psychiatry is a pseudoscience and metal illnesses as defined and diagnosed by psychiatrists are false concepts? And? That doesn't mean he isn't quite sick in his head. And it doesn't mean he is sick in the head. Think you might have missed his point. Mentally sick is defined by whatever psychologists define it to be and has been through our history. Perhaps Rpietila went through a hard time and that mentally taxed him, maybe even broke him - but that is what a sick society will do to people. I try to remember this quote - Krishnamurti: “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” Look, we can play this game forever. Fact is if this is real and he is not trolling then pretty much everyone, with the right background or not, would agree he is not mentally sane. Period. It doesn't get much clearer than a case like this. Unless you want to be all political correct like you. Which never helped anyone, anywhere. Don't turn my response into your so called "game". Are you becoming the psychologist now and defining what is real and not? Fact is, when he posts he seems like most guys around here, except for his admission of being in a mental hospital, being super bullish on BTC (and of course being super rich). I am not being politically correct, where do you get that from? Because I am "defending" him? You are taking an argument and removing the middle ground - it has become black or white to you. And reality does not follow that, if you haven't noticed... |
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Rpietila, if you are real then you are obviously very mentally ill (not attacking you here, just interested).
I have friends in medicine concerned with brain, mostly neuroscientists and neurologists. Would you be surprised to learn that it is becoming more and more acknowledged among academia that psychiatry is a pseudoscience and metal illnesses as defined and diagnosed by psychiatrists are false concepts? And? That doesn't mean he isn't quite sick in his head. And it doesn't mean he is sick in the head. Think you might have missed his point. Mentally sick is defined by whatever psychologists define it to be and has been through our history. Perhaps Rpietila went through a hard time and that mentally taxed him, maybe even broke him - but that is what a sick society will do to people. I try to remember this quote - Krishnamurti: “It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” |
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Rpietila, if you are real then you are obviously very mentally ill (not attacking you here, just interested).
I have friends in medicine concerned with brain, mostly neuroscientists and neurologists. Would you be surprised to learn that it is becoming more and more acknowledged among academia that psychiatry is a pseudoscience and metal illnesses as defined and diagnosed by psychiatrists are false concepts? I'd believe it. The consciousness defining industry, I mean, psychology, is serving the State, not people. They define people to better mitigate the state and to fit current paradigms/beliefs. http://www.madinamerica.com/2012/02/why-anti-authoritarians-are-diagnosed-as-mentally-ill/ |
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With all due respect, give some facts (fundamentals with numbers) for your perspective. The bearishness around here lately does scare me, almost a contrarian indicator, but it is also based on a lot of facts.
There is one observation on which i base my statement of a bottom of 100 USD. And that is that a lower price-point has been tested several times after the bubble crash. And every time the bitcoin value re-bounced to above 100 USD very fast, indicating that the market will not settle for a price point below 100 USD! It is a tough one to call, for sure. When we look at the crash of 2011, we see the correction took 5 - 6 months or so. During that time there were 2-3 weeks of support at a variety of prices. In the current correction, we have had 4 or 5 days (not sequential) of support at 100. I would be very very careful if I were you. If this support holds for a while, then I am with you. But support to me, is found by either/and length of time and/or volume, of which we have had neither. (Which doesn't mean it is true, but just to be careful.) Maybe this correction will be shorter and you are correct, time will tell, but I certainly wouldn't base my position on us testing 100 5 times... IAS |
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If you are still bearish, don't be, 100 USD is the bottom. I do not see any bears anymore, to me the forum posters wih the bearish remarks are just some people hoping to get in at a lower price-point, because they are actually bullish! If you look back at the bubble crash, then it's obvious that afterwards when the price went down below 100, every time the price went back up to above 100 in a relatively short time. This happened several times, indicating that the market will not settle for a price below 100. Even when some big coin dumps put serious downward price pressure on the bitcoin value, the price rebounded to above 100 very fast. However; it is also clear that there is not enough confidence yet to have the price moving up again. We scraped 160 and we touched 140, but that is it. I believe it is now safe to say that the new bottom is 100 USD and in the mid to long run the value will increase again. In the short run there might still be a few big coin sell off's to below 100 USD, which you can profit from if you dare to, but the price will not stay below 100 USD for long anymore. When the price will start moving up again is difficult to say, might be a few months, might also take until next year. We will probably have to wait for some positive events to happen: e.g. new and improved exchanges, transparent regulation, big venture capital introducing new business opportunities, bitcoin acceptance by big online retailers (probably not soon), who knows the bitcoin ATM rolling out worldwide, or just some general global positive media attention. But it will go up. up uP UP  I'm a long term BULL with BTC but the short to mid term has changed. Services, places to purchase goods with BTC, etc. are minimal these days. I know that Bitpay has added a lot of customers but a large % of their income is just from BFL using their service, that can change. It is real, but it is also a part of the Bitcoin ecosystem and we have to see it as such but not discount it too much either. For the price to really have value at this level we need something of substance to take place. We can argue just as a store of Value BTC is great. But the current price seems to be looking to a future justification. That isn't all bad, as the economy doesn't look good, but I'm talking about just BTC now. If the stock market takes a crash, yes, we jump back into BTC as a store of value before others start. No where in your post did you give any real evidence of a 100 being a bottom. The chart doesn't look good (many traders as well as subscription services have said this), rallies being sold off into time and time again doesn't look good. The big buy that happened last weekend to stop the price from dropping was a terrible business decision as the slippage was huge. I do admit, as in my post above, that the market dept is looking great but it also has been manipulated time and time again. And, sold into as already stated. With all due respect, give some facts (fundamentals with numbers) for your perspective. The bearishness around here lately does scare me, almost a contrarian indicator, but it is also based on a lot of facts. |
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I agree with the rest of your post. But then you had to say this. Who the heck are you to say what bitcoin is "made" for? Read Fekete and what he has to say about the role of hoarding in any healthy currency. There is NO SUCH THING as a currency that does not have hoarders. Even the USD (which is losing value) is hoarded in ridiculous quantity. Socialist weenies made KeynesCoin (Freicoin and PPCoin) but if people hoard USD than people will hoard those. Bitcoin is a quasi-commodity and can be used to buy shit and to store value. In concept it's great for both. Enough of this demonization of responsible saving as if it is a built-in feature of the currency.
It is funny, if you save money in USD it is called saving, but when you do it with BTC it is called "hoarding". Is there a more negative word we could have chose to replace "save"? To save BTC is smart as it is a deflationary currency. I think where people get lost is in the assumption that we should only spend it, but that is consumerism. I think a smart thing to do is to save as much as you can (just like in general, don't be a consumer) and when you have the chance to buy something with BTC, you do it! Moving money out of fiat and into something trustworthy (not necessarily BTC of course) is smart as the printing of money and the way the banks are run is theft. Because BTC is so divisible (8 million bits per BTC), even if the float was decreased MASSIVELY it wouldn't matter, there are still plenty of "bits" to go around. I think I heard something like we have enough Bitcoin Satoshi's to have one for every penny in the money supply, something like quadrillions. |
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