software engineers for FAANGs get 500K/year salary (I learned about this on reddit).
That's 10K/week, roughly.
I am not one of them, so my investment is more limited (only 'buying' mined btc).
phil had posted many times that he mines eth, ltc and doge and converts it all to either btc or cash.

yes, like China is doing the fudding and dumb (or potentially commie-infiltrated) Western governments are nodding in approval.
...but i am going to utilize bitcoin (for lawful ends) whenever I please.

@Paashaas traveled back in time to bring us a fresh fud-zicle.
I fell for it...almost.

it went down because @JJG repeatedly denied that there is any resistance at 42-43K  ..., but the pic above says it quite clearly: there was such resistance.
let's the blame game commence...he he
Every time he/she utter some "non-technical" analysis, it does the EXACT opposite.
Almost a perfect indicator (in reverse)-those are actually very valuable for traders. Unfortunately, I am not doing much trading.

Interestingly, bitcoin is less than 1% of total wealth, but they are talking 50% of time about it on various media outlets vs stocks/bonds/etc.
Does it mean that we are going to 150 tril or 75tril if stock/bond market gets halved? lol
Bitcoin is definitely punching way above it's current weight.

see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg57059967#msg57059967

People proclaimed that the guy is midrust-lite, but examining his lines makes some sense (as a possibility).

A quick 2021 vs 2013 comparison...

2013: up from ~16 to $250 (1300%), down from 250 to 65 (-71%)
2020-2021: up from ~10K (where bull started going vertical) to ~65K(450%), back down currently to 30K at the current low (-53.8%).
At 25K (hypothetical) it would be -61.5% (close to a Fib number) and at 13K (close or at 200wk average) it would be -80%.
This shows to me that 25K is possible as this downturn low, but even this one seems excessive since we did not peak as dramatically as in 2013, therefore it is more likely than not that we either already bottomed at 30K (almost -54%) or would bottom somewhere between 25 and 30K.
 
Pure tech analysis guys would probably love for it to go to -61.8%, which would be just a tad below 25K (something like 24.7K if the top was actually 64.65 and not exactly 65).

TLDR; We already had enough decline compared with 2013, but could go to about 25K in the oversold scenario. Anything lower would be a problem.

never? check out that 2013 bull run..$250 in April, then $65 in July.
The structure looks very similar...so far, albeit the move from Jan to April is shallower in 2021 and so is the dip (so far).

Are we still in denial or moving to anger? Probably the latter with China/Russia being the culprit yet again.
The funny thing is that China/Russia wants to suppress bitcoin because it represents freedom and dummies on the West suppress it because it represents China somehow?!
WTF

an attack to cause "plebs" to release bitcoin, which then could be bought by the "investment class" (wall streeters, hedgies, VCs).

large amount of FUD is actually bullish...long term.

Well, he already sold and is not asking for opinions.
Mindrust asked, was told not to do anything abruptly, did not listen, then started posting about why he was right.
One point, though, I have a feeling that one of the newcomers might be mindrust reincarnated (with some btc position or at least WAS before we went from 65K to 30K).
Act 2, maybe.

Nope, wrong again. Most of my investment was done years ago, now stacking via mining, mostly ("buying" at a fraction of the market price, mind you). I find selling the rips and buying the dips not worthy of constant attention. I am investing for the long haul (for all of my extended family and their descendants). I get enough "cash flow" as you call it to not bother with sells (I will sell if a good lake will become available as i like water, lol). BTW, I find it somewhat creepy that you try to entice people to reveal their holdings (on multiple occasions with separate folks).


a character guess #nohomo

You always seem to fight my opinion (directly or indirectly) without providing anything even remotely close to a prediction, but I turn out to be more right than wrong and you more wrong than right, like during much berated "stall" between Feb and May.
Why is that?

It is because you are all entertainment, and I like facts/science and interesting thinkers.
Are you into burlesque or something like that?

take the info with a grain of salt (I just post the link), but I never trusted that company enough to give them my btc.
I also never trust anyone with the name Zack, especially if he wants to give me an IOU but that's just me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/nheh5z/warning_blockfi_having_lost_millions_of_dollars/

EDIT: others on the same thread claim that everything is peachy. Maybe, it is just FUD (by competitors), but I still do not trust those services. At some point they might go insolvent, imho. It could take a a while, though.

This will probably happen.
Not important for anyone in US with less than (currently) ~25 btc for gifting exception and ~87.5 btc for estate tax exception/gift or estate holder (double for a married couple).
Divide by 10 with btc potentially at 400K sometime later.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alangassman/2021/03/27/senate-estate-and-gift-tax-bill-will-reduce-exemption-to-3500000-and-take-away-many-opportunities/

I thought that above $10K reporting is already required as I recall an urgent message from coinbase in 2017 after >10K transfer out.
They wanted to confirm my credentials, which I did back then.

BTW, attacking bitcoin with bs basically undermines their tax base, regulation or not.
If there are much less gains, then there is less to much less tax. Ta-daaa (a knock on an empty head)!

They don't get it..lost about 1tril in tax base or maybe up to 100-200bil in revenue so far, give or take.

40K is just a number now.
We shall observe 42-43K, which was support before, but now a resistance line.
Besides, some kind of retest is healthy.
When something bounces back straight up to lower highs from a deep plunge, it is typically a bear market behavior.
We are good for the moment-consolidating.

In 2000 some hedgies were trying to 'bring down' high flying biotech and internet stocks.
Even Clinton chimed in with some nonsense.
Instead, the whole market crashed severely and caused a recession.

Now, someone wanted to bring high flying cryptocurrencies down..and look, the whole market might just could go topsy-turvy either soon or in the Fall.
BTW, a huge market crash would certainly stop or even reverse the inflation uptick that many are so worried about.

From my perspective, all I see is more work for the same or even slightly declining total compensation at the same job, officially.
Deflationary trends that Jeff Booth had described are real and maybe will be even accelerating in the future once more narrow AI gets going.
General AI would mean MUCH less or NO work, hence no work paycheck.

TLDR; A "cresting waves series" theory with progressively stronger waves. The lower bound for the next wave crest is projected at 170-510K (depending on a trough value) and upper bound is at 646K-1.94mil. This is for the current cycle, which might end up being the strongest of all, eventually.

Well, I am still not going to call it a secular bear, unless we go below 28-29K.
However, this bull is unique as it is the second wave within it that crests spectacularly, then crashes/troughs.
The first one was a crest in June-July 2019 (from 3K to 14K), then a trough in March 2020 (back to 3.8K).
This time, we crest at 65K (it even looks like a wave on a chart!) and now went down to 30-31.6K (Coinbase and Bitsmap both show 30, CMC 31.6) if I read it right.
So, say, it was 30.  Almost a complete retracement YTD, but still higher than prior ATH (20K).
Therefore, this cycle looks like a series of waves and not a smooth move.
It is possible that retrace is not complete and if so we might take some time to settle.

This "wave theory" would suggest that trough could be anywhere between 30K and a bit above 3.8K (purely theoretical, not a prediction, see more), but I favor the scenario that it would be above 20K, but I also outlined both 10K and 30K scenarios.

An any case, the third wave would then have to be the strongest (first wave-from 3.1 to 14 (X4.5), second from 3.8 to 65 (17X), then a third (strongest) from whatever it would be, but the multiplier in the series could be 64.6X (of course, it could be lower, but has to be above 17X in order for the thesis of progressively stronger waves to be correct).
Therefore, series projection (upper bound) would be something like this:
10K to 646K
OR
20K to 1.29mil (#3)
OR
30K to 1.94mil (#4)

Lower bound (if the third wave would be equal in strength to the second wave within this cycle):
10K to 170K
OR
20K to 340K  (#2)
OR
30K to 510K (my choice #1 with a caveat that the multiplier could be higher (>17X), but the starting price lower (<30K), so these two factor would balance each other out)

If (<1% probability) we would go all the way down to 4.5K (next in series starting with 3.1, 3.8, X), then next wave would be projected to crest at just 291K, not sure how many would be able to stand the plunge, though.

It all harks back to my reminiscences of a "At the crest of a the tidal wave" that I read with amusement, only it did not happen...so far and for the last 25-30 years or so!


 

It is almost the same "system" as @JJGs. It ought to be the exact reverse/opposite.
I know that it sounds counterintuitive, but it is supported by many leading market practitioners and my own 24 year long market experience as well.
Just my 2c.