Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.
Probably about right, always a long grind between cycle bottoms & tops. $250,000 by end of 2025! remind me to sell some during 2025 at 250K, or maybe even 190K,  |
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I hope he (B. Cowen) is wrong, but who knows. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxbpmp3HF4EComment: why nobody take under consideration the "potential" hockey stick of adoption? TL;DR 40K at 2024 halving. Yea, not very bullish, this one. |
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Well, we 'ate' all but 11-12% (at the moment) of 19780 to 67566 move from 2017 ATH to 2021 ATH.
This is a bit more of the give back than before, imho.
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So they froze the chain?
the coin was like 8 bucks in june 2021 cap 2 bil
then 4.37 in dec 2021. 837 mil cap
then 2.13 in april 2022 544 mil cap
then 79 cents in may 2022 182 mil cap
now 25 cents in june 2022 64 mil cap
looks like still trading, but down 48%...today..lost 10% betwen screen refreshes. Oh, my. "Another one....another one... bites the dust." Another pos coin as it is once again un mineable. If they would simple ban pos worldwide and just have pow the entire industry would benefit. sadly, no can do since they would lose the volume that supports all those exchanges, VCs, hedgies, fundies, etc. |
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So they froze the chain?
the coin was like 8 bucks in june 2021 cap 2 bil
then 4.37 in dec 2021. 837 mil cap
then 2.13 in april 2022 544 mil cap
then 79 cents in may 2022 182 mil cap
now 25 cents in june 2022 64 mil cap
looks like still trading, but down 48%...today..lost 10% between screen refreshes. Oh, my. "Another one....another one... bites the dust." EDIT: is it just me, or is the market trying to completely expunge ALL appreciation that accrued during COVID (in stocks, bonds and now bitcoin as well)? |
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Yes, I was thinking that something was not exactly "right" with them.
Thankfully, no account.
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I got liquidated again. This time, I didn’t see it happen. I saw the BTC ticker dropping, I ran into a computer problem, and by the time I got into my account—more bitcoin gone! Little itty-bit left. This really leaves me kicking myself. I had one month since my last liquidation to figure this out. I was (and am) totally trapped financially; so, I sat like a deer in the headlights. I should spend less time worrying about Bitcoin, less time writing about Bitcoin, and more time worrying about myself and whether I will have any Bitcoin. Time to be a ruthless mercenary capitalist. Oh, in case the newbies didn’t get it: MARGIN SUCKS!!! Six months ago, my financial position was beautiful. I was not rich; but I had a decent position, it was consistently improving over time, and best of all—my position was stable. If I had never touched margin, then I would now be munching popcorn, laughing at all the people who are worried, and looking for the best way to buy some cheap coins ( for cash, without margin). But I am financially dependent on assets that are, um, gone. Whoops. If even one naïve n00b is deterred from margin by my flouting this in public—well, I can’t say it will have been worth it. No way. But at least, some good will come out of this.
WTF, did I jinx myself by quoting mindrust in an earlier post?
If we really visit the $23k range, I could get liquidated again-again. I ought to avoid repeating the same mistake. a bit of humor in a sad situation: https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lxri1t/who_the_fuck_is_margin_and_why_do_they_keep/ |
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It would take 15,000 years to count to 500 billion!
who is counting? lol |
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Nice drops
BTC down
and all major shitcoins down worse.
Do you know what the miner breakevens are at these days? about 15c/kwh for S19pro (without mininer cost amortization). many people have much less price of power. Sorry, I mean the point where miners start shutting down equipment because BTC price is too low. Big down candle in 3.....2.....1 easy to calculate from my initial numbers....at 5c/kwh, they won't until about 8.8K/btc; at 10c/kwh until 17.6K/btc. it strictly depends on their electricity supply price. they would also mine at a small loss, but only for a limited time. |
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Nice drops
BTC down
and all major shitcoins down worse.
Do you know what the miner breakevens are at these days? about 15c/kwh for S19pro (without miner cost amortization). many people have much less power price. |
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Shitcoins are ultra shit. Look at Litecoin. $48. It was at fucking $48 when BTC was $3,800 !!!   litecoin is less of "that"...useful for some experiments...for example they are trying some privacy tools now. not for me, but less s-y. js |
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More pain is coming I fear. A possible black Monday event tomorrow in the shitstock market as the realities of inflation are only just becoming clear and inflation is going nowhere.
Regarding fuel prices.
We now pay around £100 in the UK for the average full tank of petrol. £46 of which goes to our beloved excellent government with esteemed knowledgable leaders who take the most upmost thought when it comes to long term planning.
Note that a year ago that same full tank cost £40! So less than the government profiteers from it today!
I had to take a step back a few days ago when I realised that the conservatives (who I did vote for btw several times - I probably will never vote again, ever, not even for who is the temporary weekly hero citizen at the old folks' home when I get there) have been in power for 12 years and I am now being taxed far more through almost everything whilst our national debt has continued to balloon and house prices are beyond reach for the average Joe almost.
We may be in an end game here with all of this continued tax - inflation - cheap money - cheap debt carry on and huge changes in the financial AND political landscape may be on the horizon.
Covid was perhaps the domino that accelerated towards the inevitable day of reckoning.
Hopefully many will realise Bitcoin is a long term solution and not just a get rich quick opportunity.
I don't want my government to give me any fucking cash / rebates / help. I want it to scrap most of the payments to the middle class entirely and just fucking take less in the first place! And take a 50% haircut themselves. We don't need half of those bozos.
There's that old saying that goes "don't fight the fed". Really? Didn't they proved to be incompetent with their "temporary inflation" shtick? |
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26 fucking k. Give me back my $30k sideways... please...  here...have 27 (for now)  EDIT: I feel that at some point in the next 2-3 mo we will find out how much hypothetication and re-hypothetication was going on various exchanges and loosely attached funds of Blockfi and Celsius ilk. |
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Maybe this is a good sign for the price begins its recovery, I would like it to reach $ 35k, if possible ...
Today's longs are tomorrow's liquidations. Beware of market imbalances, because sooner or later some bad guy is going to use them in a non-trivial way. whatcha talkin' bout...fillippone? https://youtu.be/atx5i_9OnWc?t=6 |
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I wonder if that chatty google AI is posting here (if it has Internet access)?
Spooky, but not unexpected (many predicted that a chatbot would be a first "real" AI).
If is true, and there is a "real" AI out there, it would be mind-boggling on many levels.
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This price is still too high for me to buy Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!! Why does it need to be 70% from the top? Haven't heard that one before. Better than 83% from the top theory at least. I could argue price needs 1 year to bottom out since the downtrend begun on the week of May 10th 2021. This would mean price bottomed out for the cycle 4 weeks ago  Meanwhile, today looks more bullish than bearish now. The week looks bad though.
Or it can be greater then 70%+. I was half assing it. Because the truth is that it is similar to a folding paper mechanic. You fold it until you can't, because the pressure is too great and you are just physically incapable of doing it and the paper will spring back. But basically at around 65%+ we start to go into 'retarded territory' and that theoretical spring starts to coil. After 72% it's just a hot potato game, or a chair game, where the last one holding the cash keeps the crash. I like the analogy, at least the 70%+ theory for 2018 rang true, that of selling below $6K. Sure it came down to $3.2K, but unless selling was to buy lower, it was a stupid selling moment long-term. However in 2020 while price did drop 70%+, the "retarded territory" (of selling) you reference was more like @ 60+%, that of $5.5K or the 200 Week MA more specifically. A 70% drop I consider a bear market, even if short-lived. Currently price is already down 60% @ $27.5K. 70% would be around $21K. While I still don't doubt price could come this low, it certainly doesn't "need to". Point is if price did bottom out at ~$25K, then it'd be because price dropped 83% in 2018, 73% in 2020 and the 63% in 2022. The irony would therefore be statistical, that of crashes being less by %, after increases being less by % terms. I feel like some people are overlooking what is happening here per cycle, that of a confirmed pattern of Bitcoin's recoveries from bear markets. 2011 could be considered a miracle (first recovery) 2014 could be considered a coincidence (second recovery) 2018 would be considered as a confirmed pattern (third recovery) 2022 would be what you'd expect from a pattern (fourth recovery) It'd impossible to claim that 2022 needs to be correct as previous years, as since 2018 Bitcoin confirmed a pattern of recovery from bear markets cycles, so the risk is exponentially less. ...unless someone claims that 2010-2021 was a secular bull (with cyclical bulls and bears) and there is a possibility that this one would be a secular bear (due to stocks and bonds also crashing at once). To me, it is too early to have a secular bear; it could happen maybe after we reach 500K or above ($10 tril or above). In a secular bear, decline could be below (or much below) prior cycle height, imho. EDIT: I just found that in 1982 DOW went back to 1916, inflation-adjusted. Wow. This suggest that we might go back to 10-15K Dow in 8 years, inflation-adjusted, of course. Nominal could be 25-30K. https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart |
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This price is still too high for me to buy Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!! Why does it need to be 70% from the top? Haven't heard that one before. Better than 83% from the top theory at least. I could argue price needs 1 year to bottom out since the downtrend begun on the week of May 10th 2021. This would mean price bottomed out for the cycle 4 weeks ago Meanwhile, today looks more bullish than bearish now. Exactly! |
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This price is still too high for me to buy Come on, bears, you can do better! At least try again to break 25K unless you have small d..ks!!! But I wouldn't wait for 20K ...21-22K would sufice. Maybe even 23K if people will FOMO on 22K or lower and won't stay long there. There is no 'have to get' number: not 70, 80 or 85% It just "finds" the buy/sell equilibrium, that's all. There are too many factors involved to claim that it "has to" hit a certain number. Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.
For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.
Don't wait too long we are very close to the bottom and when it goes up it be it will be explosive. The bottom has traditionally come a year after the top, this cycles top was however a twin top and weirdly low, so it might be different this time, but I doubt it. So, in short, I think the bottom is in around december-ish. Maybe a "weird" double bottom to balance things out? like 25->45-50->24? Besides, most people are now in agreement that the "real" top was in April (based on momentum, etc). November was an especially wimpy "top-lite". |
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Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.
For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.
yea, my most "stupid" investment-treasury money market fund is the best performer this year. That one and some small biotech (most biotechs are down as well). |
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