Their are forces at work in China that one way or the other, have served to ramp the sh1t out of Bitcoin, and then bring it crashing to the ground all across the globe. Lets face it, the Chinese government could send Bitcoin up to $2000, or down to $200 tomorrow on the strength of a single statement.
For the time being, they are the market makers and one has to wonder what their motives might be, or what the motives are of certain influential individuals with the Chinese hierarchy.
Get a grip. You speak of the "forces at work in China": these are the exactly same forces at work inside you and everybody else thinking of buying Bitcoin. And Bitcoin went up and down before China. From now on I predict news from China will have less and less effect. The Swiss government acknowledging Bitcoin as a currency they will work with; the American government drafting new legislation to set out a long term future for Bitcoin; the European Union banning every European from depositing fiat in their exchange accounts: all these statements have the power to change things immensely. Stop obsessing with the Chinese. |
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We are going a long way down now. This seems to be just the start of government regulation.
Being on the speculation forum and setting aside the integral anti-government philosophy of Bitcoin for a moment just so that we can consider things with a cool head, I don't understand why some people think that government regulation will make the price go down (I assume it is the price you are talking about when you say "we are going a long way down now" and not our ethical standards!). I think it is one of the several indispensible keys to making the price go up. Have I missed something? |
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I think its honestly going back up to $1000. The china news was priced in already and how could it be any worse. People still have $1000 dollars on their minds so anything under that is cheap.
Yesterday you said all the signs were pointing to another crash, and when the Chinese wake up they will start dumping more coins "en masse". I suppose things do move quickly in Bitcoin!  |
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& HODLcoin...
So much PUMP and so little DUMP |
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Its the exact same chart as last week - Chinese Arb cycle. Theyre only buying so they can dump on other exchanges, and they'll wait all the way till rally seems maxed out before they attack. Then suddenly the volume on BT China completely dies since there are no real buyers other than the arb, and they start dumping at the same time, causing a sick drop. Meanwhile every exchange is still wired to follow BT China, so everyone slides to hell together. SO As soon ad you see the volume on BT China die you GTFO. Next stop may be 350. This slide will continue until other exchanges support the price on their own and decouple from BT China.
Do you know how hard it is to actually make money arb'ing with Bitcoin? It's near impossible. The idea that there are a shit load of Chinese traders buying on BTC China to dump elsewhere is frankly a load of bollocks. +1 |
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I woke up today to see Bitcoin back up, pushing 700 again
Yeah, I think the bounce will be short lived. It looks way overpriced to me. Hey nice avatar. I was seriously thinking about starting a "Mr Greedy coin" the other day. It's just the pic I need! |
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My theory is that hedge funds are not going to throw money into BTC anytime soon.
Having worked in IT for 6 years at one of the top 5 hedge fund companies, I learned how they operate. Basically, they DO NOT take risks! BTC is just too volatile for them to invest in. They may have one or two guys in the Value department looking at BTC and keeping an eye on it to see where the future may lead, but I am pretty certain they are not going to make any large investments, if any at all. People get fired all the time for even suggesting risky trades and for coming across as "gambling". I once asked a trader what he thought of investing in stem cells and he laughed saying they wouldn't even consider it being that its way too volatile, and as we know BTC is insanely volatile. What they would do is play with the arbitrage opportunities which may explain all the money going through China. There is basically no risk in doing that.
Anyway, this is just my .02. Im not a trader, though I do understand certain things having studied finance at one point. I wish I knew what I know now while I was working there. I do know their trades are very conservative and right now the chance for loss in BTC is too great. Clients would get concerned.
The smaller start-up funds in the industry could jump in to BTC, but I just cant see the big whales getting involved anytime soon unless more arbitrage opportunities pop up.
You don't think some would want in at $300? I mean the charts are there for all to see and it looks like Bitcoin is going to be regulated as an asset unless something weird happens. |
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I played my hand very poorly here.
If you made profit as you say then you didn't play poorly. Surely it's the sum of your trades that counts, not the result of a single trade out of dozens? |
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Beauty is in the eye of the behodler
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Time to buy was most definitely yesterday under $500
No, really?  |
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Hint: I predict a meltdown, you predict a boom. Why is your post full of wisdom, while I am posting trite? My scenario is that bitcoin cant work, thus goes into single digits/cents. Your scenario (boom), cant be connected to a concrete price (or its much harder).
Please explain your "can't work" scenario better. Later you said "already had massive media coverage" but although I can't prove it, I really think that many of us here, with our noses in it every day, are under the illusion that every Tom, Dick and Harry in the world knows about Bitcoin, knows how to buy a Bitcoin, knows how a Bitcoin works, etc. I honestly believe that such a person is relatively rare on this planet at the moment. For example, I live and work in Belgium in Europe, and I can tell you that no-one in the office here knows about Bitcoin. The one person I started talking to about it had not heard about it and looked confused. And he is on the internet every day (but browsing in French). Although we (please excuse my talking for everybody) have Bitcoin on the brain, search for news etc, most people do not. And media coverage is fickle: it takes many repeats for it to sink in en masse. Why "Bitcoin can't work"? Please explain more clearly. |
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An altcoin will solve this. Believe in the ecosystem. It is competitive.
Sorry, I need more than this. |
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It's going to get banned, outlawed, and fought every step of the way, because it is designed to take power away from governments and banks.
Can I just ask, what if it doesn't get banned but it gets accepted as an asset on which you must pay tax on capital gains? I fear you may be banking on it getting banned when it looks like it is not going to get banned. What then eh? Tax offices, the Inland Revenue, etc. will treat Bitcoiners like everyone else. They will make use of the blockchain and the cooperation of Gox, Bitstamp, and all other companies and exchanges, present and future, that want to succeed (and therefore will have to comply) to track fiat going in and out of Bitcoin, and then track the gains of your stash in fiat terms and tax it like the gains made by any other human being living in their country. This looks like the most likely scenario for the future to me. Please tell me where I am wrong or how this doesn't make any difference to the "freedom from governments" philosophy. I'm interested to learn more. |
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To save completely new investors a lot of potential heartache and bitterness, this is a good demonstration of Bitcoin's price evolution.
But deep down I think a little conservative.
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Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF may get approved
I think this ETF has much less chance of going ahead than Bitcoin itself, though. |
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Can I ask just out of interest in psychological factors, out of those who think it's going back up to $1,600 by the end of the year what is the ratio of new people who missed out on the run up in November?
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Bitcoin below 10 dollars in 2014.
Bullshit. Or should I say "Porkies" |
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Ha ha!  I haven't seen that, honest. |
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I mean, anyone would have to be off their fkn rocker to buy in here, right?
The funny thing is it's actually the reverse. In my humble opinion they are the most likely to win. As long as they are only "quite greedy" and therefore decide to go "long" (one year) then they are looking at a dream investment by any standards. Its the people who so badly want to double their money in an hour who are off their rockers. |
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Shakespeare, in response to the question, once said:
"fuck it. All in."
Which book did he say that?  Bitcoin for Dummies |
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