I will buy at $200 and no higher.
Same for me. It is written that you shall never, ever, ever buy another Bitcoin so long as you both shall live. Honestly.  |
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If you need the money right now, sell. If you need the money in a few months, don't sell.
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I reckon China's stance will also go some way towards encouraging India to do the opposite  |
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I'm in China, and I have a local colleague in the office with me who has been helping with some Bitcoin things. We talked about events today at length, and I'll share here:
This is what he told me he read in this morning's press:
BTC-China 'heard' that financial institutions had been asked to cease providing/receiving cash for the exchange, so BTCC called around. According to the press someone at Tenpay confirmed to BTCC that government officials had told them they are not to transmit cash to BTCC during/after Chinese New Year - I don't know the exact date but roughly around end-Jan. BTCC made similar calls to the banks but they declined to confirm or deny anything on the matter. But generally the understanding is that government officials have notifified all financial institutions not to accept/send cash to BTCC - we assume the directive is also effective for all other alt-currency exchanges.
I will also share his thoughts, from a local perspective:
The move was driven by a desire/perceived need to control capital flows. My own view is that recent terrorist events, and well as recent regulatory moves overseas, also prompted this move by China's govenment. (Some may not be aware, but recently there have been several 'terrorist' attacks by persecuted Muslim groups. That is a whole 'nother, lets not start. I can confirm, however, that security at airports has tightened noticeably.)
As to the question of 'what comes next' he's of the view that the excange(s) won't be forced to close per se, and BTC cannot/will not be made illegal. He likened it to Porn on the web. Government can ban it, and do all it can to restrict it, but anyone who makes the effort can find it. My colleague said BTC trading will continue - but in what form and manner remains to be seen. We agreed that BTCC is going to have to either find a way to allow deposits/withdrawals, or somehow restructure its business.
As for arb / money flow opportunities, Chinese can get assets/cash to HK pretty easily, so there should be a robust arb between HK and BTCC, and BTC/value may flow into the BTCC exchange in that way.
My 2.
Thank you very much for this information. It would be very helpful if you could add more as and when you hear. Could I ask you to confirm whether or not people can make deposits from their banks directly into their BTCC accounts? Sorry if this question has already been answered but the current understanding here seems to be that while third-party payment providers cannot deal with any Bitcoin-related activities, citizens may still fund their BTCC accounts directly from their own bank account if they wish. |
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I agree that no-one can be sure. Investors need a stomach of steel on this one! But things have changed very much this year.
I think it is very likely that if Bitcoin is not wiped out or very seriously compromised then the next couple of years at least are very bullish. The media spotlight can give the illusion that most people know about Bitcoin. This might lead one to believe that many people have already decided whether or not they want in. I really believe that most people do not know Bitcoin (beyond perhaps reading a headline) and have not decided whether or not they want in. When they do come around to deciding, the main question will be "Will Bitcoin disappear or keep going?" I just can't see how it is going to disappear anytime soon, and with every new tech investment, with every new hedge fund endorsement, with every new decision to classify Bitcoin as an asset, people will find it more and more difficult to imagine Bitcoin disappearing.
Which means that with things as they are right now, the door to many milllions of people is swinging open for the first time ever. That's also the reason why the "China" news is not so bad - because there are so many potential new adopters everywhere (including China even if it is banned!).
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The last bubble:  We missed the big spike, but does this look familiar?   Don't you think that we are in a very different context now? |
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It's difficult to judge but ask yourself about the general trend of bitcoin. The reason it hasn't gone quite a lot lower (see previous bubbles) is because there are a lot of people: 1. ...Who have arrived over the past couple of months and put a "sensible" (relative to themselves) amount into Bitcoin and who are looking at it as a year or longer investment with great returns. Don't forget a year is quite SHORT in investment terms. These people aren't going to panic over dipping below the price they bought in because they really believe that in a year they will make better money than they could anywhere else. I believe that these people by far make up the MAJORITY of new buyers over the past few months. 2. ...Who are holding Bitcoins who also believe strongly that the value will go to 2 or 3 or 4 times the value over the next year and who certainly do not want to miss out on this because of panic selling now. Remember that long term holders have experience of Bitcoin volatility. Why do people think it will rise in the future? Because: 1. It has done so far for 5 years. In a very strong way. 2. Serious businesses with serious money are investing seriously in the technology. 3. Serious investors with serious money are investing seriously in the investment (  ) 4. Despite the uncertainty at the moment, it looks very likely that Bitcoin is acceptable to most countries in some category or other (asset, currency, etc.). Frankly, at the end of the day who cares if you have to pay capital gains on something that doubles or trebles in value over a year. And when more and more people start to use it, there is no law saying that it could not be re-classified. At the end of the day, you have to understand that it is still early days, despite all the media coverage. There is a lot more growth to happen. I am bullish even for the short term; by short term I mean a couple of months. People forget what short term means (or should mean) to most people on this forum! Take a step back, decide whether you think Bitcoin is here to stay or not and then don't worry about one day to the next if you think it is. |
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Good for you if you made a profit playing the market. But most people who do that lose. Holding over 6 months or more is as safe a strategy as they come, and gives better ROI than anything else currently available.
Holding 6 months from 32 in June 2011 gave you a ROI of -94%.  Things have sped up a bit though |
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What do you mean bullshit propoganda? China -- the country of 1 billion + and second largest economy in the world -- essentially banned bitcoin today. I'd say that's bad news... maybe the worst single one day event in the history of bitcoin, and it's really unlikely that we're going to rise back to the one thousand range anytime soon. It's a big blow, and the bitcoin nutters are going to have to really try their hardest this time to put any kind of positive spin on it. They'll try though.
By bullshit propaganda I am referring to the "drugs, anonymous assasins, evil hackers" stuff. The China issue is not so straightforward. The world is a big place. There is room for massive growth in America alone. Did you really believe that Bitcoin would become the currency of the entire World? Bitcoin also grew plenty in the early days, without the whole "China" thing. Most of the logarithmic percentage graph shows progress in the days pre-China mania. Of course it is an obstacle, but at this stage of early growth it is not at all as bad as it may seem when phrased as "The second-largest economy of the world pulls out of Bitcoin!!" |
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I'm just hoping it holds just a little longer so I can cash out my little play money I bought last week. Liquidating all my play positions to get my bitcoin back. We are only talking like 3 bitcoin here, but $850-950 dollar bitcoins.
Luckily I bet good, because I am still up at the moment even though losses are heavy.
Hopefully the bulls can be optimistic just a little longer.
This is why I didn't speculate in 2012, because after watching bitcoins fall from $30 to $2.01, really didn't want myself putting fiat into it at the time. Easy to say I was stupid now, when bitcoins rose recently. However, now I know why after being active during that time why I didn't invest even though I really do like the idea.
My plan was to invest when bitcoin reached a longterm stable price, that would have been around $10.00 but stupid me just forgot about bitcoins.
$750 bitcoin price right now is way too high. I would say with china slowly being put out of the market, things should go back to reasonable growth levels. We were at $13 in January, I say we really shouldn't be higher than $100 at this point. I doubt it will fall that low, but the risk is there. The risk is far too high to be investing in bitcoins at anything higher than $200 dollars.
I just don't see the long term gain here when you could invest in other currencies that may come out in the future. Downloading over 10GB of data didn't make me feel really good about bitcoins long term growth.
It is far easier for you guys who own bitcoins, when they were under $20, to stick in the game, but buying them at $650 or $500 or $400 is still a highly risky investment, unless it stabilized around that point for a really long time.
Yes but a lot of people really believe that Bitcoin is going to go up much more next year. And with this thinking comes the thought that whether or not I buy in at 400 or 600 or 800 now, best be on the safe side and at least have Bitcoins. Because the returns in a year will be good any which way. I would not wait more than three weeks before getting in. |
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Up until recently I've been quite bearish but seeing all the "strong hands" out there is impressive. And let's be honest, the China news and the bullshit negative propaganda is losing its power rapidly - generally things are looking bright for the future. I'm starting to believe that things are going to keep moving between 700 and 1000 until January, when things push upwards. Are all those waiting for the 450 mark really never going to see their dreams come true?
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What's nuts is that we were trickling downwards today anyway. Then the China news a few hours ago. A few coins sold and "boing" up we go like we hit the bottom!  All those people with itchy trigger-fingers getting ready for the bottom of the trickle bought in early! Ironically the China news gave the price a new lease of life. Let's see where it goes. |
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The funny thing is, I get the impression that a couple of hours ago a lot of people were thinking "it's heading down; I'll get my fiat ready for a few days time", and then the China news comes out and after some minor coin dumping for an hour these same people think "It's hit bottom! Let's get in there now or never!" and get back in days before they would have done if they remembered what they were doing!
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Yep. The Chinese government wants it phased out of existence quickly.
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It was fun being bullish for the last few weeks, being surrounded by so much enthusiasm and having high hopes of BTC going to the moon. It was fun believing for a second that we may finally be a part of the wealthy elite thanks to believing in bitcoins early on. But looks like our dreams are coming to an end, at least for now. BTC and LTC is going down HARD. Once that dreaded China rumor turns out to be true, it will go down even faster... probably back to around $200 or less in the next few days/weeks (which is not unusual at all for bitcoin, people seem to forget how incredibly volatile this is). 55 LTC and 15 BTC losing value like it's nothing.... my entire life savings is going down the drain right in front of my eyes.
Looks like I have to continue giving handjobs for a living and get back into putting up my services in the "Casual Encounters" section of craigslist. Thanks guys. We're done. Finished.
not serious, can't wait for 2014, china showed us the potentail for bitcoin, btc will be big in USA in 2014 when wallstreet and other huge players get in
*queuing up with a bag of sexcoin* |
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If you can be bothered to do all of this why not just go and meet them face-to-face and sort it out like that? Much easier.
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Get out of Bullion, Franko, Gamecoin, Infinitecoin, Stablecoin and get into Litecoin and... Sexcoin! Yes, a pump and dump coin is surely a good buy...  There are intentional pump and dumps by devs and secondary pump and dumps by troll traders - sexcoin was the latter. No coin is safe from this type of "pumping and dumping", ahem. |
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Some tank better than others |
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I think there are some good people behind Sexcoin, but they might be a little slow sometimes as they have plenty on their minds |
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