-snip-
On a separate issue:
Question to TA experts: how likely would be a situation when we try to get to ATH, then fail (around, say, 15-18K) and revert to at least a short term, but significant bear?
Unlikely; possible, but not likely; likely (if you can show %% in your opinion)?
I am no TA expert, but my own estimate of those probabilities is 70%-20%-10%
In stocks, this happens all the time, witness the famous SP500 double top in 2000 and 2007-2008 at above 1500.
The reason I am asking is because essentially all predictions are showing the same fractal with $1600-3122 low, then a smooth increase (by an exponent) to 80K-400K.
The alternative take would be that in this (or next) cycle this pattern would be broken.
Certainly, I am NOT opposed to attempting to figure out longer term waves of BTC price and assigning probabilities to various scenarios, and to me there seems to b almost no great chance that anyone (even whales) can predict exact BTC price waves or even manipulate the price to such an extent to actually cause the wave that they would like to happen, so in that regard, a scenario in which BTC price approaches ATH but only gets within a 10% to 25% range of it and does not breach it remains decently likely, perhaps within a 30% or so arena. Of course, the overall sentiment remains that when momentum bring BTC within a 10% to 20% range of the previous ATH, then momentum is going to bring it over such previous ATH, and likely surpass such previous ATH by at least 50%, and that common sentiment drives what actually ends up happening and causes any alternative scenario to be really capitally intensive to carry out, so that is why I suggest 30% as the highest of such probability, but likely, a realistic probability would be below 15%.
So, even though the odds are against breaking back down after getting so close to the previous ATH, there is going to b a whole hell of a lot of FUD spreading and misinformation that actually describes such low probability scenario as if it is much more likely to happen than it is.. and that is likely to be a dominant narrative that tries (and will be somewhat successful) to trick HODLers out of some or all of their coins. So you would describe the possibility as somewhere between 15% and 3% of a pull back from the breaching the next ATH? or between 30% and 15%? or between 30% and 3%? You might be able to deduce why I am asking for something more specific. The ranges you postulate are fairly broad imho and I would really like to put you more on the spot with posting such a prediction.  |
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Good afternoon all. Increasing support has developed around the 0.382 fib seeming to indicate we might try another run at the $4k resistance level. #dyor 1h  Slow sideways ladder until the end of the month. 4  For all of you waiting for a lower low...scheduling a -20%+ drop between now and the end of the year is becoming increasingly difficult in my mind. I am not saying it cant happen, just that it is becoming less probable each day. D  #strongerhands'19 |
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House in Australia-being auctioned in crypto: https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-casuarina-129081390Not sure if any dolphins would qualify, but whales would do, probably  On a separate issue: Question to TA experts: how likely would be a situation when we try to get to ATH, then fail (around, say 15-18K) and revert to at least a short term, but significant bear? Unlikely; possible, but not likely; likely (if you can show %% in your opinion)? I am no TA expert, but my own estimate of those probabilities is 70%-20%-10% In stocks, this happens all the time, witness the famous SP500 double top in 2000 and 2007-2008 at above 1500. The reason I am asking is because essentially all predictions are showing the same fractal with $1600-3122 low, then a smooth increase (by an exponent) to 80K-400K. The alternative take would be that in this (or next) cycle this pattern would be broken. I would have to say 86.89% unlikely, 10.11% possible; but not likely and 3% likely. I would further add that I think after this cycle ends there is a good chance the next cycle will be much shorter as in the 2013-2014 run up/dip/run up. W  #stronghands'19 |
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All you do is attack again and claiming that I'm not being objective. It is you projecting your own evil character into my posts. You are naive. So naive that it distorts your perception of reality. And as a result you're a force of evil.
You haven't even quoted the literal scientific paper from a peer reviewed scientific journal that I've provided and keep attacking my person. And then you call me non-objective. You are literally the problem until you stop attacking and start discussing on neutral grounds. You're too deluded and emotional to even realize that I am not taking any sides you colossal fucking cunt. Your name is clearly a self-descriptor.
Or maybe you're just too fucking old and used up to understand how to look at problems without appealing to authority. You fucking pawn.
P.S. If you were actually objective you would've seen that I never denied climate change in any of my posts. I've even provided a fucking paper that shows evidence for climate change you fucking retard. So yes, you absolutely are the problem. Your laziness and intellectual dishonesty is the source of all evil and problems in this world. (By your I'm grouping you with all the morons that act the way you do.)
Why dont you tell me how you really feel? The problems I suspected go much deeper than I thought. Good bye. |
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In this particular instance all I see is hypocrisy on your part. You fling ad hominems around without contributing to the discussion whatsoever. The hypocrisy of yours is a direct result of you bold quoting "willful ignorance" while completely ignoring every single thing I've said.
Again, the only problem are people like you. I'm providing objective points of concern from both sides, while you attack people from a perspective that you've picked up in MSM that you clearly don't know shit about. Otherwise you would have a civil discussion instead of attacking me.
You are correct sir..I am calling your character in to question...flat out. If people like me are the problem then I thank the Lord that we still seem to have the majority and the World continues on its merry chaotic way. I hear nothing objective from your opinions other than a sense of bloated self-righteousness bordering on megalomania. Be that at as it may, I believe everyone is entitled to have an opinion and its completely obvious that you have yours and I have mine. Do not think for a second however that I wont call bullsh*t on you when and where appropriate as I have in the past and will continue to do so in the future. That you call my perspective main stream is laughable and truly shows how little you know and gives insight as to where you think you are. If you want to have a civil conversation fine, but I can not get over the feeling that you have almost zero real world experience in the things you talk about. With nigh 4 decades working out in the field in heavy industry and to have literally watched the sky burn and cry tears of oil I can tell you that from my perspective, humanity is impacting the planet. Your blasé attempts to provide "points of concern" appear disingenuous and frankly argumentative. Climate change or environmental change, whatever you care to label it is happening and waiting until hypothesis is proven out as fact in this case would be in my humble opinion nothing short of recklessness. Upon further thought I was not flinging anything around, this is just plain false. I specifically asked you to pick a direction with a expletive added in for vernacular. If you choose to take this as an ad hominem attack that is your prerogative. Honestly, it does not matter at this point as I do not feel I will change your mind with my opinions or experiences and we are pretty well off topic so why we dont we leave it with that. Good day. |
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seashells
you got any of those you wanna trade? we might be on to something here.. |
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the relevant technicians are on the scene and appear to be in deep discussion but there seems to be some sort of issue with communications, please stand by  |
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Aside from the fact that I think I threw up in my mouth a little watching that..there is but one thing left to do..  |
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#YangGang
  #YangGang |
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Looking ahead. 1h  M  #stronghands'19 |
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I do believe in science and math, that's precisely why I don't believe in a man made environmental change. It's an unproven hypothesis.
LOL how? How could you deny the environmental pollution causing by the industrial smokes, cars etc? How could you deny the fact that we are destroying the environmental ecosystem by cutting the forests? How could you deny that we are killing animals and imbalancing the entire food chain? How could you deny the climate change? How could you deny the increased sea level? Do you know what will happen if the last bee dies? Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjID1ugr1foOne of the largest challenges we face is the constant erosion of aesthetic expectations. I sit here in middle age, aghast at the degradation I have seen in my short lifetime. People younger than me never even saw it before we logged off the Pacific Northwest, before we built out the strip malls, before the fisheries started to collapse. They have no reference point to know or value the beauty that I remember, and my recollections begin in the early 1970s when the accelerated decline had been well underway for some time. Anthropogenic climate change may or may not turn out to be significant, but the dystopian cesspool we are creating is very, very real. +2 WOsMerits I'm not trying to be a cunt here, but it's important not to talk about things you don't even remotely understand the scope of as if they were fact.
Try harder... and while your at it, try practicing what your preaching. Now gtfo and go invest some of those "millions" into an actual education. I don't think I need any more degrees. And I clearly state when I don't know the conclusion, which you would be able to tell if you read any of my numerous posts today. So how about you fuck off instead? Its not just about the destination..but also the trip along the way. See above. Anthropogenic climate change may or may not turn out to be significant, but the dystopian cesspool we are creating is very, very real.
Come on, Canada's not that bad yet.      Since the beginning of the oil sands development, there have been several leaks into the Athabasca River polluting it with oil and tailing pond water. The close proximity of the tailing ponds to the river drastically increases the likelihood of contamination due to ground water leakages. In 1997, Suncor admitted that their tailing ponds had been leaking 1,600 cubic metres (57,000 cu ft) of toxic water into the river a day. This water contains naphthenic acid, trace metals such as mercury and other pollutants. The Athabasca River is the largest freshwater delta in the world but with Suncor and Syncrude leaking tail ponds the amount of polluted water will exceed 1 billion cubic meters by 2020.
Natural toxicants derived from bitumen in Northern Alberta pose potential ecological and human health risks to northerners living in the area. Oil sands development contributes arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, mercury, nickel and other metal elements toxic at low concentrations to the tributaries and rivers of the Athabasca https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athabasca_oil_sandsI am sure this is all fine.. |
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Let's not get our opinions from rags, mhm? Well in that case its obvious there is only one thing left to do..  |
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I'm not trying to be a cunt here, but it's important not to talk about things you don't even remotely understand the scope of as if they were fact.
Try harder... and while your at it, try practicing what your preaching. Now gtfo and go invest some of those "millions" into an actual education. |
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As tempting as it is to debate the anti-vaxxer sewing circle, I am gonna let this one go.
+1 WOsMerit ------------ squirrel digs for corn 1h  #stronghands'19 ---------- https://support.binance.com/hc/en-us/articles/360024825992-System-Upgrade-NoticeFellow Binancians,
Binance will perform a scheduled system upgrade starting at 2019/03/12 2:00 AM (UTC). The upgrade will take approximately 8 hours.
Binance will suspend deposits, withdrawals, and trading during this period. Deposits that are not completed before the start of the upgrade will be processed after the upgrade is complete. Please allow some time for deposits to be reflected in your account following the system upgrade.
We apologize for any inconvenience caused, and thank you for your patience.
Please note: The 8 hours is based on our best estimates and may vary. As usual, we will maintain regular communication on the progress of the upgrade on our various social media channels.
Thank you for your support.
Binance Team
2019/03/11 |
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Another week goes by and bitcoin continues to show moderate gains and volume as signs of thawing slowly spread through the market. I am not sure I would say our ship is sailing..but there is a definite yacht leaving the harbor. #dyor 1h  Classic pincer move upcoming to penetrate resistance. That being said, I truly think the next couple of weeks and how we deal with the upcoming downtrend line will define the market for the rest of the year. #btd 3h  You have to wonder when we are going to challenge this 100 day MA on the daily chart. I think sooner rather than later. D  While not a perfect picture yet the bottom is much more clearly defined then we have seen so far. The upward bulge in the cloud in mid August is showing a growing level of support at the $4.5k range. W  #stronghands'19 |
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Fourth consecutive week closed in the green... and I still have no fucking idea what the price is gonna do next. Bleh. If at least I had the balls to aggressively scalp around this range....
Come on grow a pair but, but.. maybe next time it breaks out!  |
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Dog howls at the Moon crab arm raised in defiance soon higher we fly 3h  #stronghands'19 |
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Three hour snapshot. Declining volumes potentially herald increased volatility as support levels build at the 0.382 fib. #dyor 3h  #stronghands'19 |
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stalking.. a drink of liquidity and we are off again. #btd 1h  all systems primed. D  We are going to have to face this area head on. Let us not forget we traded over $5k+ from between Oct. of 2017 to Nov. of 2018. The halving need to be priced in soon right? We have been down in this hole long enough. W  we have weathered the worst of the storms children...rejoice..for brighter days are ahead. #dyor M  |
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