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3541  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2019, 12:54:01 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIb2lmHgd5s
Joe Rogan Experience #1170 - Tulsi Gabbard
1,112,437 views

+2 WOsMerit's

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/rep-tulsi-gabbard-of-hawaii-says-she-will-seek-the-2020-democratic-nomination-for-president/2019/01/11/2f0c7b26-027c-11e9-9122-82e98f91ee6f_story.html?utm_term=.0c51217d0881

https://www.tulsi2020.com/

Looks like the young lady is throwing her hat into the ring for 2020. That was a great interview with Joe but I would like to see her in a more adversarial type format and see how she handles a little pressure. She is smart, well spoken and a veteran..not to mention easy on the eye's. I think she has a bright future and I really like what she is saying.  I will definitely be keeping close track of what she has to say as we approach the next general elections.


Wut? I've not seen anything anywhere to prove anything.

+1 WOsMerit




If you look through the court document's it appears that CSW has been involved since at least 2011. You are correct however mum that there has been no concrete proof.  #dyor


It is nice to see that you are placing low odds on CSW being satoshi, and even conceding that a decent amount of information remains unknown.

On the other hand, I find it a bit ironic that you were cluttering this thread with ideas that the negative had not been adequately proven or that there is really any kind of need to spend WO brain power on such question regarding that fucktwat who is most-likely a fraudster.

Wait a minute here...  We have brain power?

+1 WOsMerit

--------


Dapple wintertime
A gigantic bitcoin jump
whilst watching the dip
3542  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2019, 07:24:36 PM
<.. Sorry I don't have a better answer.>

I appreciate you taking the time to respond to my poorly articulated train of logic. Instead of going over your reply's point by point I will just say I think there is little doubt that Craig was at or near Bitcoin beginning's and that he currently controls a large bag of coins. That being said, I think you hit the nail on the head describing what I was implying and that is what was/is or could be the motivation. The primary reason for showing pros and cons is that the pro list is pretty heavy imo and the cons seem trivial except for the opsec. Which in CSW's case might be considered a pro as he's ego apparently has no bounds.

Cypherpunk's have never been about money..it was always the cause. If you believe as I do that a cadre of these giant's created Bitcoin then the first two thing's I mentioned have extreme weight in a logic tree and any continued obfuscation appears to be a zero sum game.

I will finish by stating that perhaps logic and rational thought are not my forte, I am much more comfortable in abstract and non-linear thinking. What I do have and had over many years imho is a outstanding bullshit detector...and I have to tell you jb...something stink's with all of this.  
3543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2019, 02:17:59 AM
Another good read here HM...though I detest factual errors, especially within the first paragraph. Is proof reading not a thing anymore?

Quote
<..In the nine years since its launch..>

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/blockchains-occam-problem

I could have sworn we just celebrated ten years..  Anyway..ymmv.
3544  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2019, 01:41:45 AM
A detailed argument for the bottom being in:

https://medium.com/@renato_shira/bitcoin-bottom-is-in-35ff1e2b9403

I don’t agree with it but worth considering. 

Quote
we can approximate the average price paid by people that have BTC now

I made it about this far into it(lies, I looked at the whole thing) before losing interest..   Sounds like another smallcoinerTM who bought the top. /s

From a purely theoretical view point, I applaud the energy put into trying to craft a reasonable fundamental metric for calculating bitcoins price. The reality is that we are still in a speculative market and I feel that is what will drive the price action for a considerable time to come.
3545  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2019, 10:20:45 PM
My question is can you or anyone else give me their best argument as to why the bottom is in or not.

From my perspective, your question is inappropriate useless.

Bitcoin is a new emerging asset class, in the initial throes of price discovery. To attempt to time this market is madness. Price goes up; price goes down - you can't explain that. All we really know is:
1) whether or not the world knows it or not, it needs a permissionless uncensorable form of money free from the whims of central planners; and
2) a vanishingly small percentage of the world has yet awaken to postulate 1).

From these two, we can conclude that the long term trend is up, and will remain so until such time that the world at large is onboard.

Ignore the noise. Buy today all you can conceivably afford to lose. Hodl on.

Pit pat piffy wing wang wong.

Bear waxes bullish..  Set defcon3.   Reluctantly issues +1 WOsMerit..

Quite being so speciest. I've always been bullish. Publicly, even.

Thanks for the merit. Smiley

My condition is much more specific..and by many considered much more serious.


---------------

I can think of at least one strong reason why satoshi would like to sow doubt about his existence.

So in your example of a possible scenario he (Satoshi) would come out and pretend to be a total dick to not be outed properly as a genius?

Or perhaps satoshi is a total dick. I mean, why not?

As I recall, the initial outing was not uttered by CSW.

Yes he did, he told various people 'in confidence' and left clues lying around in the hope they would be picked up.

https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/bizarre-saga-craig-wright-latest-inventor-bitcoin

A particularity dickish thing to do.

Jbear

In your opinion, what are the odds that CSW is Satoshi?

I would be interested in you stating in clear terms what probability you consider this to be true?  I appreciate that certain things may be unknowable with present knowledge, but that is why we assign probabilities. 

So please tell us what is your probability that CSW is Satoshi.   

I have a vague curiosity as well. Personally, I have never had any interaction with Craig so all of my data is either second or third hand speculation. Be that as it may, what I am able to intuit tell's me that he is narcissistic to the point of arrogance. That he thrives on the attention that the uncertainty of he's identity creates and seems to have no problem at all dealing with what some could call shady personalities.
These things and other "facts" lead me to believe with 99.9% confidence that he is not Satoshi.

Logically the reasons behind hes unwillingness to disclose whether or not he controls the key to the genesis block make no sense too me.

Lets look at these rationally.

Pros
1) Revealing control of the genesis key basically tells the world it was never about money. Coins could and should have been dumped many times over if it had been.
2) Even controlling such a big stake of coins that there was a true belief in decentralization. A hands off approach or at least a behind the scenes one over the project direction has been encouraged.
3) The incredible social network effect that would happen to Bitcoin knowing that the creator was still around and interested in development.
4) Banishing doubt over dishonesty or fraudulent claims.
5) ?

Cons
1) Opsec becomes increasingly difficult.
2) The continuation or creation of a cult of personality.
3) Becoming(more of) a known fraud and liar.
4) ?


This is just a short list off the top of my head..I am sure it can be made much longer with some creativity.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/4-billion-lawsuit-against-craig-wright-moves-forward-as-judge-declines-dismissal-request

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/6309656/68/kleiman-v-wright/

Interesting how the last dump occurred about this time no?



I will be following this case with interest as I am sure many are. What are your thoughts jb?
 
3546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2019, 07:06:19 PM
My question is can you or anyone else give me their best argument as to why the bottom is in or not.

From my perspective, your question is inappropriate useless.

Bitcoin is a new emerging asset class, in the initial throes of price discovery. To attempt to time this market is madness. Price goes up; price goes down - you can't explain that. All we really know is:
1) whether or not the world knows it or not, it needs a permissionless uncensorable form of money free from the whims of central planners; and
2) a vanishingly small percentage of the world has yet awaken to postulate 1).

From these two, we can conclude that the long term trend is up, and will remain so until such time that the world at large is onboard.

Ignore the noise. Buy today all you can conceivably afford to lose. Hodl on.

Pit pat piffy wing wang wong.

Bear waxes bullish..  Set defcon3.   Reluctantly issues +1 WOsMerit..


-----------
bitcoin

The market still feels at odds to me. The sentiment is high now but the trend is still downwards. This has led to a shallow channel over the last couple of days.

On the hourly it appears we will continue to trade downwards and sideways.
1h


Thing's are not so clear further out. Its hard to judge if the cloud has already taken into account the bart sell off we just experienced. My gut is telling me that longs have not been squeezed enough nor has the bottom been tested thoroughly enough yet. Do your own research.
3h

#stronghands'19
3547  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2019, 05:13:53 AM
I thought I had just seen a report indicating a majority of old wallets were inactive for the most part. Now I am seeing this..  Hows the worm sign out there?



Quote
“It’s definitely a big shift. There’s more potential than usual for price swings.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/long-dormant-bitcoin-whales-resuming-activity-could-rock-price-action-analysts-say

---------------------

D




3548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2019, 12:54:29 AM
Ин yaлл oбзepвep, yйpд бaлeт дaнcep интepэкт yитъ ю.

Мой разговорный русский довольно плохой .. ты только что сказал под руководством балерины?
Ты пьян.

lol'd

+1 WOsMerit

-------
I get (and like) everything about bitcoin with one point that is not clear to me: is credit possible in btc-based financial system?
If yes, then how? If no, it could be a limitation, albeit most people might think that this is a feature.

I enjoy short term zero % credit (as i pay my bills in full every credit card cycle).
I fully understand that it is a gimmick and most people don't do that and accumulate debt, although my personal interest payment is -1.5% (1.5% reward and NO interest).
How bitcoin can/will fight this?

I would be happy to lend my btc (on a monthly basis) to a reliable party (if there is such a thing in btc world) and get back 2-3% interest on a yearly basis, but only if interest is in btc and not fiat.
IMHO, btc lending needs to be established and sooner rather than later.


Yes you can have credit. Credit just means that someone else is paying for you.
They simply pay your bills with their own money/bitcoins and then you pay them back at the end of the month or whenever the bill is due. It's just another word for loan.

However, a real loan, over several years, would be impossible to pay back if you get paid  in fiat and would have to convert to bitcoin every payment because of bitcoins rapid deflation. But that's another question.

There are and have been many btc loan services AFAICR. I think its the enforcement on default debitor's that is the problem. What recourse does a lender have if someone absconds with your coin? Civil litigation is expensive and time consuming in the US anyway. I think it far to easy for someone to run a long con to consider using larger amounts. Micro loans and payday loans could probably be profitable within the right jurisdictions. I guess it all really comes back down to having a "trusted" third party as a intermediary handling your private keys...   Not many bitcoiners favorite thing imho. A smart contract layer will probably solve many of these issues.
3549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2019, 10:02:42 PM
*giggling intensifies*



3550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2019, 07:38:25 PM
Oversold conditions continue to offer support to the current price levels. It seems a relief rally might present itself over the next couple of days. #dyor

4h
3551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2019, 06:44:31 PM
Ok so Ive been invested in BTC since 2018 with an average cost basis of about 8k per coin. Sadly I dont see how we arent going to have at least one more huge move down well below 3k. I have orders to buy 3 more coins if we hit 2k. I dont want to sell rn but I am considering taking out a short position here. I believe in Bitcoin, but Im tired of so much losing in my first year Embarrassed

Could a few members help me out and post their best argument for why we already saw the bottom, or their best argument of why we are gonna have another big move to new lows.

Thank you in advance.

Stop worrying about shorting the final gasp of the bear market and start thinking about when you are going to long the bottom and how you are going to do it.  Much more profitable.

I have thought about this, thats why I said I have orders to buy 3 more coins at 2k. Thats all I can afford to lose. It will bring my total investment to almost 40k. I will not invest another dollar after that. All ive known investing in Bitcoin is a terrible bear market and its hard not to worry as early adopters dump on my face Cry, but thank you for the advice.

Im interested in hearing other Bitcoiners best argument(s) as to why the bottom is not in yet(i believe it isnt but hope im wrong). If you have one id love to hear it. If not thanks anyway.

Get a fucking grip, Falcon Lover, over your own situation. 

Your continued whining (in a second post), after Hairybeary provided you with a reasonable response, shows that you are participating in this thread to merely spout out nonsense, and based on your assertiveness in this regard, including that you want to put the burden on others here to establish that the "bottom is in", shows that you are not really posting in good faith. 

Get a fucking grip.



I gave you a merit for having the balls to come in this thread and post what appears to be a succinct question. However, I would caution against using/posting monetary amounts and instead use percentages that indicate your portfolio allocations. Not only is this how gentlemen should behave imo, it is just good opsec that should be practiced by all. Especially when considering where you are posting such information. The merit and DT systems where put in place on this forum board for reasons beyond just identifying eloquent and prolific members. There are many colored hats that swim these waters...

Simply put..dont paint a target on your back if unnecessary.

----
To answer your question beyond what the v8 said, Karhu demands blood...we are here to give when needed.


--------------------

Please let him keep playing

82% post flop...ouch.

+1 WOsMerit
3552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2019, 03:33:05 AM
Exactly 10 years ago today something special was tweeted out to the World. Thanks Hal..you are missed but not forgotten.




https://twitter.com/halfin/status/1110302988?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
3553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2019, 10:24:57 PM
wth is that thing on ur face bro?



itsafeature.jpg

------

notsureifserious.jpg




notusuallyno.jpg
3554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2019, 08:38:50 PM
Bank the unbanked they said..  yah right. Like a poor person wants to worry about random 10% haircuts just because some asshole wants to draw on a chart. ftfy.

1h

#imout
3555  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2019, 05:43:18 PM
I often wonder if everyone is so focused on the hourly charts that they forget about longer trends. Anyway, looks like we will spend the next several weeks clawing back what we just lost...probably just in time for another dump at the end of April. #dyor

D



M
3556  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2019, 04:04:51 PM
1h



4h

#saveyourselves
3557  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2019, 07:05:17 AM
Did anything happen?





Or..its uncertainty over the upcoming ETH fork. Either way it nipped what ever rally dreams we might have been having in the bud. Wait for that rebound and then exit sounds pretty good right about now.
3558  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2019, 06:50:11 AM
Come on guys capitulation plunge. Let’s do this properly.

+1 WOsMerit


Why not. Good lesson to learn here. Always go with your first instinct.
3559  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2019, 06:37:41 AM



Barted

1h
3560  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2019, 05:32:55 AM
Welcome back to our regularly scheduled program folk's!  We do apologize for any technical difficulties you may have experienced during our last episode.

-----------
bitcoin

All the ingredients for a breakout are on the table. There appears to be very little resistance above us. A couple more solid pushes and there might be some fireworks.
1h


Give it another 12 or so hours and I believe another leg up could happen.
4h


On the daily we have almost broken through all resistance. I usually like to wait for confirmation of my biases and see full penetration into the cloud by the indicators. However I believe that we are still in recovery mode from the large selloff last year and the weekly chart is still ascendant. Taking thing's at face value it seems like at test of the 0.382 fib at least. $5k also is within shouting distance through the cloud if you look hard enough. #dyor
D

#stronghands'19
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