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3761  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2018, 08:59:40 PM
Bitcoin shits the bed again. Capitulation confirmed.
Market should be quite volatile as people try and exit positions. #dyor

1h
Shorts going vertical


D
default cloud settings


D
20,60,120,60 cloud settings


*edit*  Game over Doug. Sorry bro..tried like hell.
3762  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2018, 04:15:00 PM
Goo...   Well anyways.....morning all.   Undecided

Another sell off just when thinks looked to have reached equilibrium. 3 lower lows over the quarter. It goes down when it looks like its going up and vice versa..

Trolls and bears everywhere suggests we are at the bottom again but to be honest..I have lost faith in my own abilities to judge where the price is going. I will step out on a limb however and say I think the bottom has not been reached yet. I believe it will be in the $4.7k range. #dyor
3763  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2018, 03:56:18 AM
This might be the dip you have been looking for.

I think over the next 10 days will see a moderate increase in price for bitcoin. I have doubts we will see over $7k again this summer. Looking at $6.95k at or around July 1st. #dyor.


1h


4h


D
3764  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2018, 01:43:14 AM
Bored..so hang on.

Public safety notice. *Please make sure tin foil hat is firmly attached*

Ready Player One?

There is quite the flurry going around the twitterverse today. It has to do with a hash with was produced on June 19th. "00000000000000000021e800c1e8df51b22c1588e5a624bea17e9faa34b2dc4a"

https://www.coindesk.com/21e800-bitcoin-satoshi-mystery-twitter-obsessing/

Quote
Some background: There is a theory in physics that attempts to explain the interactions and dynamics of all forces, including gravity, in the universe with one simple mathematical structure known as the E8. Presented in a paper titled, "An Exceptionally Simple Theory of Everything" by Garrett Lisi in 2007, it still remains unproven.

Couple the unsolved status of the E8 theory with the equally unsolved mystery of the exact identity of the person(s) who brought bitcoin – with its supply cap of 21 million coins – into existence, and you get the hypothesis that "21e800" isn't just some random string of numbers and value. In fact, the theory seems to suggest, it is a "vanity hash" purposefully placed by the creator of bitcoin himself/herself/themselves, Satoshi Nakamoto.

Starting to get goosebumps yet?

This is a deep rabbit hole. The further you dive into it the more challenging the mysteries. What interests me is the dates these "theories" were published..a little over 10 years ago..just before bitcoin was launched.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Exceptionally_Simple_Theory_of_Everything
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mathematicians-team-up-wi/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/garrett-lisi-e8-theory/

Latest article on arxiv relating to e8 published this year. Pure goobly gook for most..but it shows the big brains are still working on it.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.09626.pdf

Was something discovered around 2008? Did a mathematician or group of them find a message from the future? Was it the root cause of the global financial "crisis"?

Fast forward to this year..   Quantum block chains and temporal paradoxes..
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.05979.pdf

Quote
As discussed below, all the subsystems of this design have already been shown to be experimentally realized. Furthermore, if such a quantum blockchain were to be constructed, we will show that it could be viewed as a quantum networked time machine.

Coupling these together makes for some interesting speculation imho. Is Satoshi from the future? Was he contacted from the future by a benevolent AI to develop an alternative timeline? Is time travel possible? Maybe..

Odd that I made this post just over a week before this was published..  The entanglement deepens..

Deep dive beyond bitcoin and what I think might be the greatest gift of this technology.

   The long term benefits of this technology might be this...for the first time when we look backwards in time, at history if you will. We will have cryptographic proof that the information contained is not tampered with. This is such a simple statement that I hope you all take the time to truly understand the profound impact of what it is that I am insinuating. True wisdom comes with understanding the space that you are observing, by accurately "mapping" a space..you gain more understanding of it. Having a map that stays consistent over time is a game changer on so many levels I have a hard time wrapping my thoughts around it.

This is how conspiracy theories are hatched..through sheer boredom.

 Cool  If nothing else this might be a decent script for a movie. Enjoy the read..ymmv.
3765  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2018, 04:17:44 PM
Good morning all.

1h
Slight rise in price over the next 24-36 hours followed by a weekend slump. It starting to look like bitcoin is falling into a typical legacy type pattern lately. Market makers continue to hold the price down in anticipation of the perceived low in August. I can not recommend bitcoin as a buy until this cloud structure ahead of us starts to weaken. #dyor   


4h


D
3766  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2018, 04:02:08 AM
Just a few things I have spotted today.

There was a some volume spikes over the last 36 hours or so that piqued my interest somewhat. As illustrated on the chart, they were moderate spikes in buying and selling. What catches my attention is the selloffs. All those coins where scooped up with the price staying relatively flat. More recently the cloud is showing a nice ramp forming instead of a vertical wall. Healthy(er) market conditions forming imho. #dyor





---------
Can anyone please explain what is this list about? and how its generated?

The goose started some price guessing games a few months back..these are the contenders still involved and those that guessed wrong with the sad faces.
3767  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2018, 04:04:47 PM
Good morning.

1h


D

#cryptouplift
3768  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 19, 2018, 01:37:05 AM
there it is...perfect timing
Wink 

I didn't even have to read to guess that after that 5% rise the forum would have gone full bulltard. Should I even read the last 5 pages. I think my head will explode looking at all the nub charts.

Tera-bull posting bullish charts...oh my. Cheesy

I am lost. 

Perhaps I am missing a variable, or the math is beyond me.

Just leet speak Jay..a bit of fun. I enjoy giving that one thousand three hundred and thirty seventh merit..thats all. Besides..I think the period as placed by jojo was proper. Your post could have ended there and I would have agreed and understood. That you chose to elucidate farther and take the time to try and explain yourself to the little bear is worthy of applause. *golf clap* 
Seriously..well done.

----
1h
I have adjusted the cloud settings some. Trying to figure out the best settings for bitcoin still. I was using just a doubling of the defaults(9,26,52,26 to 18,52,104,52), but I feel that still does not reflect the 24/7 nature of crypto. Going to try 30,60,120,30 for awhile and see how it syncs up. Work in progress.


D
I would like to see $6.95k to confirm uptrend.

#hodl




3769  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2018, 05:39:59 PM
Baby boomers Roach??   I dont think so. This is institutional.  I have decided to cut you some slack because I have realized you must be very young. Try to forgive..it will blow your mind. There is still hope.


I am referring to the right here, right now situation. In the past few weeks Bart is up and running. I said I'm here for the long run many times, no need to explain further. Simply warning that there are green candles and green candles.
DYOR, always  Cool

EDIT: two upperbarts...

But..but..what if its a reverse Bart?

3770  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2018, 05:11:31 PM
Still some Barting activity. I don't buy it sorry.
Sad to admit a few people are making a shit-ton of money due to this self-evident manipulation.


Well..that is your prerogative I guess. My take on it is this..  I know for about a 95% certainty that bitcoins price will at least double in the next twelve months. I dont know where you can find better odds than that at present.

D
I would call this a corrective move upwards not only due to technicals but also fiat fleeing legacy markets on a downturn. On the daily we are still well below moving averages. I would estimate a conservative target of $7.26k by months end.


W
Perspective

#dyor
3771  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2018, 04:44:11 PM
Good morning all.

9am...banks opened..dumping filthy fiat...weeeeee! (This is also a technical term for those in the know...fyi)







3772  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2018, 02:09:19 AM
Most divorces don't end on friendly terms. Out of curiosity, what did you end up being forced to pay to her and how old were your kids when the divorce happened?

No pre-nup but I gave her the house we lived in at the time. Zero fault state so no alimony...but I payed substantial support for the kids. Worked out to about 50k for each kid..pretty cheap imo. This does not count the cars, clothes, college fund and endless trips to the mall typical of young girls. Kids were pre-teen at the time..just spent a great day with them actually..was real nice.
3773  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2018, 01:24:40 AM
Meh..I disagree completely. I have been divorced now for 10 years after 17 years of a mostly wonderful marriage, I have 3 beautiful children and a solid relationship with my ex that I would not trade for the world. Marriage and life are what you make of it. If you put a negative connotation on something it will most likely be that in reality. Just a thought.


------------
Bitcoin

Do we have enough shorts lined up to wreak yet? Sideways with a side of downwards.
I guess it needs to dump down to $5k and see what pieces there are left to pick up..  #dyor



3774  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 17, 2018, 04:18:52 PM
So...I think the big question now is....is the bear run this time around like 2013



or 2014-2015


Or will this be totally unique?



No.
No.
Yes.
I also find if your going to compare apples to oranges..at least try and line up the time frame and scales somewhat. It helps to add continuity to your dialogue.

--------------

Bitcoin is the path to lambo. Lambo leads to women. Women lead to marriage. Marriage leads to...suffering.

Naw, women lead to getting laid which leads to dumping that nasty golddigger. Unless she's that one in, quite literally, a million who is worth a fuck beyond fucking. Better odds playing the lottery. Even better playing the roulette.

Can I get some contact info from you guys?  I want to meet the women who fucked you guys over so badly... I am detected possible future ex-wives.  Cheesy

3775  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 17, 2018, 03:35:55 PM
Good morning peoples.

While we still have rougly 9 hours before infofront's poll closes...I think I am going to be a bit shy on the daily high prediction for today.  Huh  Tongue  It appears that roughly 10% of us know what the fuck is going on around here..somewhat reassuring I suppose.  Cheesy


That being said..it appears that we will be heading in that direction over the short term as Bull's maintain support in the $6.4k range. Key resistance is still hovering in the $6.8k to $6.9k area. The price has moved upwards over the night to break out of the wedge we have been seeing but not with a decisive move. This is telling me we will most likely retest support in this range again before moving upwards and sideways after the close of today's daily candle.
------------
On an aside..  How about some of these alts..  How would you feel if bitcoin "paused" all transaction?  Uh..sorry guys..hold on while we stop the blockchain.  Ok..its back up...everything's fine...nothing to see here. Or another that released some kludgy code...one small typo and the entire chain became unusable.

Makes me grateful for the methodical conservative approach of bitcoin dev's. First and foremost I want my coins to be absolutely secure as possible.

------------

1h
Cat stands with arched back


4h


D
Was the large dump coming into June a good thing? It might have been, it has taken the price well below the MA's and that sharks tooth jutting out below the cloud. Now that it is upon us will we start to recover upwards? Or will we continue to shy away due to the perceived low coming in August. My take on it so far..at least on the daily scale is we are so far below the Ichimoku that it has become almost irrelevant for now. #dyor

3776  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2018, 06:50:00 PM
It seems nearly impossible at this point, but I seriously want to see Doug Polk win his bet.  Not just because I don't want to see it drop more, but also because I am a shadetree poker player, and also because Vays has been so smug recently.  It would be fun to see it bounce off 6200 and never go back. Wink
+1 WOsMerit

Same here...always side with the degenerate gamblers obviously.


They state transactions not revenue so BCH is 859 dollars each and a doge is one fifth of a cent each.     So triple the transactions would not seem much when its likely far less revenue in value terms, less significance.   If thats what they meant by the graph

Code:
Volume (24h)
$334,153,000 USD
50,989 BTC
vs
Code:
Volume (24h)
$8,586,680 USD
1,310 BTC

39x the revenue in BCH favour.   This is why people dont trust graphs and statistics I guess.    Maybe their point was people, not value so doge is more widely used but I cant tell that


6639 to beat for btc and 6200 base is my rough view

+1 WOsMerit

It is terribly easy to bias numbers and charts. I think it was trying to illustrate community size. But it also brings up a great point for everyone here.

Do you USE bitcoin? or do you prefer to HODL bitcoin? I think many of us have got into the habit of just hodling..and there is something to be said about Metcalfe's law. I would encourage all of us to increase our USE of bitcoins...even if its just sending from one wallet to another.

-----------
Bitcoin
Not sure I can remember seeing a flat spot on the cloud quite like this before. Next week is going to be interesting imho. Nice hourly candle btw....wtg team green.
3777  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2018, 04:35:55 PM
-edited-

Might have some relevance.

Speaking of relevance little bear..


Is this really about bitcoin and bitcoin cash fighting it out? or is this about a community that stands together against the status quo of fiat and centralized banking? Seems to me there is much effort wasted in this dialogue worrying about "future problems" when we are surrounded on all sides.
3778  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 16, 2018, 03:34:46 PM
Good morning all.

Bitcoin has been trading in a increasingly narrow range over the last 24 hours as volume has fallen. This is usually a indication of approaching higher volatility, however with market sentiment down I am unsure how much upside potential there is going to be. A key resistance point is still at $6.95k and Bulls have been unable or unwilling to challenge this area. On the flip side..Bears appear to have run out of steam to push prices down past a key support level of $6.25k, leaving traders stuck in a fairly shallow channel.


1h
Sideways in the short term until late Sunday, early Monday morning.


4h
Still clinging to the tenkan-sen but well below cloud cover, there was a downward breakout from a pennant this morning. Again, bears seem to be low on ammo to drive the price down farther.


D
In what I would call the short to mid-range time frame, bitcoin's price appears to be heading for a slight uptick over the next couple of weeks. Indicating that at or around the beginning of July will most likely be our summer time high.

#dyor
3779  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2018, 05:02:31 PM
+1 WOsMerit

Anti-paywall measures activated..

Quote
University of Texas at Austin finance professor John Griffin and graduate student Amin Shams just posted a paper suggesting that cryptocurrency prices are manipulated.  The paper has received a great deal of attention in the media, but there is a disconnect between the paper and the press coverage in terms of quantification.

For example:

    The authors suggest the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex buys bitcoin with another cryptocurrency -- tether -- to push up Bitcoin prices. How much? Four basis points per 100 bitcoin. With Bitcoin at $10,000, for example, that means Bitfinex spends $1 million to push the price up to $10,004.
    The authors assert that the purchases are not random in that they occur more often after Bitcoin prices have fallen. How much? After the biggest drops in Bitcoin price, 1  Bitfinex buys 72 extra bitcoin. More than 100,000 Bitcoin frequently trade in an hour, and often much more during periods of high volatility.
    The authors examined the 87 hours with the largest flows of bitcoin and tether and found that the hours following them accounted for 50 percent of the "meteoric rise" in bitcoin. That sounds impressive, but the rise over the period discussed was from about $1,000 to $8,000. The authors used compounded returns, which mean returns in those 87 hours averaged 1.2 percent. For the S&P 500 Index, a 1.2 percent move is a big hour. For Bitcoin, not so much.

To an academic, it's often more important that a result have “statistical significance,” which is to be clearly something other than random noise, than “practical significance,” which is to be of a size that would interest a trader or regulator. But, here too, the results are less than impressive.

    The four basis-point increase in Bitcoin prices explains less than 1 percent of the variance. While it technically meets normal standards of statistical significance, given the guesswork the authors had to do to collect data and the complexity of the analysis, I consider it more likely to be noise than signal.
    The authors have only 20 data points to support the claim of 72 extra Bitcoin, and they fit them using a model with six parameters. The usual rule of thumb is you want 30 observations per parameter to rely on the results, and that's not taking into account the data and complexity issues mentioned above.
    The 50 percent "meteoric rise” claim is declared significant because the authors picked 10,000 sets of 87 hours at random, and none of them averaged a 1.2 percent return for Bitcoin. That is indeed strong evidence that the 87 hours following the hours with the largest Bitcoin and tether flows are not random. But we already knew they weren't random, they were times of high transaction volume, which would be expected to have more volatile prices than average, and trading volume was much higher on the upswings than the downswings.

I don't mean to be completely negative on the paper.  I've played with the data the authors use, and it is very frustrating. There is a lot of work -- including a lot of guesswork, unfortunately -- to compile numbers that can be used to test hypotheses. The tests themselves are complex. Moreover, it's likely that the phenomena under study are evolving rapidly during the study period. As a result, any conclusions have to be taken as suggestive only. But in areas as little understood as cryptocurrency trading dynamics, even suggestions are valuable. (Full disclosure: I own Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.)

I've only touched on the headline claims of the article. There is a lot more substance in it. Some of the claims that got less attention have better support. Anyone seriously interested in these issues should read the paper, not as an authoritative last word, but as a plausible account backed by some data.

I also don't mean to deny that cryptocurrency prices are manipulated. I'm a crypto-believer, and am impressed by the huge amount of honest developer talent and innovative vision improving the crypto code base every day, whether prices are soaring or crashing, more for love than money. That is where I put my faith. But there are plenty of crooks and profiteers as well. It would be extraordinary if some of them weren't trying to manipulate prices -- and worse.

Moreover there are obvious inconsistencies in the complex and novel cryptocurrency markets. That makes it unclear whether behavior is manipulation or rationalization. This paper is a small step in improving our understanding, not an indictment of tether or cryptocurrencies.
 

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    Specifically, the paper looked at all three-hour periods from March 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018 and found that after the 5 percent with the largest declines, Bitfinex bought an average of 72 bitcoin in the following hour.

--------
Bitcoin

Good morning.

Cloud pierced. Time to push thru? Actual analysis after coffee? Maybe...still hodling.
3780  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 15, 2018, 02:03:58 AM
There is a thread out "there" already...but what ever. This is worth posting here imo.

Tom Lee of FundStrat is saying there is a reason for the cyclic sell-offs we have been seeing..seems legit. For all you daytarders it might behoove you to sync up somewhat to what is going on over there at the CBOE..  ymmv.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrat-s-thomas-lee-weakness-in-bitcoin-is-caused-by-futures-expiration

Quote
According to Lee, Bitcoin usually sees a drop of around 18 percent in 10 days before futures expiration, with prices generally recovering by six days afterward. Lee explained that if a trader is long on Bitcoin and short the futures, holders may sell large shares of BTC at the volume weighted average price as contracts move closer to expiring.

Near expiration however, they may sell the remaining Bitcoin, which causes the price to drop, and leaving the short position in the futures they close “with a handsome profit.”

----------
Forgot a 1h chart.
Hold through this and we might see some green cloud action soon.
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