ChatGPT is a revolution. It will change the way we live and work more than the google search engine did. Check out the haikus I let it write. I love the last two: Bitcoin, the future
Digital gold, a world of possibilities
Infinite wealth.
Virtual treasure
Bitcoin, the future of money
endless possibilities.
In the digital realm
Bitcoin grows strong and secure
A shining beacon
Bitcoin, digital gold
Rising in value, oh so bold
A treasure to hold
Bitcoin in the night
Digital currency shining bright
A beacon of light. Hmmm... None of the above qualifies as a haiku. It looks like ChatGPT doesn't know what a haiku is... |
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Yeah, here in WO we are very expensive people.
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An interesting take, I agree. Especially the part where he says that CZ should similarly destroy Binance....calls is an act of effective altruism, lol. I don't think people calling it fraud is defamation, though, since Mr. Ray (new CEO) already said that there were inappropriate actions. At least one Dem senator (Durbin) said pretty much the same (albeit I disagree with his generalizations). That guy doesn't know s-t about volatility. If he has concern about bitcoin volatility, how about META and NFLX, lol? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmwLkjQl-vYOne word about paying lawyers...I was a part of Enron unsecured creditors list (basically, stupidly bought a bit at a "bargain" $2-3). The recovery there was pretty good-around 30-32%, so Mr. Ray achieved something. Typically, stock holders receive something that is close to nothing and getting those funds at or close to the end of 2002-2003 recession allowed me to reinvest the proceeds close to the bottom. [...] I can see that the guy is making some decent points.. but I have difficulties giving any benefit of the doubt to SBF (including that the presentation of SBF recognizing that SBF is talking out of both sides of his mouth.. and sure maybe SBF wants us to hate him.. the psychotic, flabby vegan and purported ethical altruist wannabe), ...and I also have some trouble with the Defi is fine talking point... , even though there is likely truth to the fact that SBF and even Alameda were paying back Defi loans while they were failing/refusing to pay back real world people and while they have so far been running off with the money.. and another thing that I have not been seeing too much is how various political donors are actually donating out their money rather than giving that money back to the (rightful owners) through the bankruptcy proceedings (for the creditors.. and the attorneys as was pointed out.. yeah attorneys make a lot and probably too much to sort through these kinds of quagmires of trying to get back money that can be gotten back, in theory.. or hopefully through the difficulties of the current system.. in which there are a lot of ways to criticize the current system.. but a siding with the criminal seems kind of strange.. even though yeah his attorney will need to do that at some point.. if the guy gets locked up or maybe he will choose to represent himself.. since SBF seems to think that he is so smart about presenting his issues (I mean lies) in the court of public opinion)... I know my last paragraph is rambling.. but fuck that guy SBF.. even though the video presentation does make some decent theoretical, factual and for the sake of argument points. @Biodom, @JJG: I was a bit reluctant to post the link to that video by TechLead, because of the inclusion of his DeFi/crypto business promotion. I think the video is more (probably only?) satirical than it is informative, although he does make some valid points in a general sense. I don't think this guy actually likes SBF. He's just making fun of him and at the same time stressing the all-importance of NYKNYC. I believe SBF knew exactly what he was doing. For context, here are some of his private messages that were leaked to the press. Effective altruism... |
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Two hundred thousand.
ATH in USD.
You know what to do.
#2025haiku
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[...] @CryptoTea_ Looking at previous 4 year halving cycles: Bitcoin bottoms in the next few months And hits a new all time high around the end of 2025 Note: Historical data does not predict the future  https://twitter.com/cryptotea_/status/1599393742250602497[...] I’d argue that we’ll see $200,000 or higher at the peak of the next cycle (top in late 2025) but you get the drill. +1 to this! $200,000+ will be an easy target in the next cycle. Adjacent spirals are roughly one order of magnitude (one extra zero) apart ( see here for WO's very own spiral analysis showing this). This means that the next ATH is expected to be in the order of $500,000 and it will likely happen sometime in late 2025. Taking into account the FTX/Ukraine events and general logarithmic progression slowdown, I'd estimate $200,000 to be a pretty realistic next ATH. This will be followed by the usual dips and bounces, until the next one around 2029 that's going to be closer to $1M. You know when to buy (and when to strategically sell)... The pattern is pretty clear. Yet many fail to see and make use of it due to greed and lack of patience. And for those not wanting to sell some corn at the cycle tops (to later BTFD), they can play safe, time their buys (now is a great opportunity), and simply DCA/HoDL, which has never failed anyone so far. Just set your targets and add time. |
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No green dildos… enjoy black ones  Men think about sex every 6 seconds on average. So, no, if you don't see a sandal you don't need help, you're just a man. |
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Damn! I need to unsee this before I can set foot in a McDonald's again... |
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I am all fine with proclaiming that something is not enough... yet? Do we want to go from zero to perfect? And, what is perfect? What would be perfect? Is perfect achievable? Is perfect even desirable? I am not saying don't do nothing, but still there are balances to any of these matters. Wouldn't progress be being made by first having all (or most) exchanges showing their bitcoin (showing what is verifiable, first?)? That would be a start, no? That would be a step in the right direction, no? Powell seems to be suggesting that it is totally worthless to show the reserves because it is not enough and it is misleading - but is it a step in the right direction? Do we believe that a company is going to show everything? Every single thing? Where's the incentive to show every single little thing? And where is the verifiability in terms of showing every single little thing? At least with bitcoin, and the bitcoin's blockchain there is verifiability.. and what else has anything close to the same level of verifiability as bitcoin? Everything else requires some level of trust, no? So I am not sure how you can show everything else without trust, so why not start with the verifiable aspects first.. and then once we get everyone showing the verifiable aspects (if that's even possible?), then we might be able to take some additional steps from there? Maybe some exchanges are willing to show some of the their liabilities, but getting to show everything seems a bit much to expect anyone to cooperate in doing or even to consider that we want that level of transparency? Then when is it going to stop? When are the disclosures going to stop? First institutions (such as exchanges) disclosing, but do the disclosures stop at that point, or then will we require individuals to disclose too? The way I see it, perfect is desirable, but, sadly, not achievable. But we can try our best to get as close to it as we possibly can. The problem I have with Binance's "Proof of Reserves" system, as explained by Kraken's Jesse Powell, is that they are adding up their assets and calling the sum "reserves". They are abusing the term, it is misleading and can give the wrong impression to clients who are not able to understand the terminology used. |
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#LNMETA
FWIW, according to the LNDg P&L display, thanks to all the auto rebalancing tools and shit, my node is set to officially turn profitable within the next 30 days, after a rather messy start getting established.
Life is keeping us super busy with the ranch. Lawsuit in full swing against the builder, and the general contractor is countersuing the builder, with us caught in the middle with a threatened lien on the parcels, so, just, fuck.
Tempted to just throw money at everyone to pay the bills and make things go away, but need to go through the legal process on principle, unfortunately. The general contractor legitimately created a Federal Issue for us and are clearly in the wrong.
Not going to be around much heading into the new year, but will lurk, as I often do.
Fighting a deep depression and rather unpleasant to be around, presently.
Not sure we're gonna make it, TBH, but I need to wait for the lawsuit to resolve before planning my next steps.
Think I'm gonna go do the whole life of hermitude for the last half of my life.
Bob, really sorry to hear about what you're going through with the lawsuit. My advice is to try to keep a balance between what needs to be done in principle vs. what needs to be done to make the problem go away as quickly as possible. Legal matters like this can drag on for many years, and this can result in high stress, frustration and misery. Usually the ones in the wrong are very good at using legal tactics to stall and drag the legal procedures forever. It's unfair and brutal, and the ones who suffer the most are usually the ones in the right. I sincerely hope the situation gets resolved soon and the result is in your favor. Life's too short to waste it in lawyers' offices and courtrooms. Keep us updated. |
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.... the epic bull run that will come in 2024 & 2025.
Now the saying is 24/25 ??..  God gives us health and a long life to live that.. (not in my mood these days/months.. some numbers are hard to digest) Always has been. 2024 halvening & then a big, powerful bull run in 2025. Just like previous cycles! 2023 will suck!  Bitcoin's cycle of 4 years is one of the few (probably the only) Bitcoin parameter that can be used to predict future price action with some degree of success. The White Paper explains it nicely, it is a mathematical fact. Using it smartly can result in immense monetary gains (rinse-and-repeat, LFC_Bitcoin knows!). Yet, people keep ignoring it and doing their own thing (mindrustenings, daytardening, etc.). I guess it's like the elections... 4 years is just too long for the average brain to process...  |
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When I was a teen, my dad (a heavy smoker -- died from it) told me that he had no problem if I wanted to start smoking, but he wanted to show me something first. He filled his lungs with smoke from his Marlboro, then blew the smoke on a white napkin. The napkin turned dark yellow/mustard color. He said "That's what you take inside you. Do whatever you want." I've never even thought of using a cigarette since.
Decades later, when my father passed away (lung cancer), a friend offered me a cigarette "to ease the pain." I asked him if this would bring my father back... I'm still a non-smoker and intend to stay that way.
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[...]
But maybe you are wrong. and it grows well over 500k btw it would need to be over 500k to be successful in 2060
Whatever doesn't kill you... Bitcoin will surpass $500k. You will be alive and well to witness it being worth more than $1M. |
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Do I remember correctly, that some time ago (2020-2021) there were some WOers that were posting about lending BTC to Celsius and similar sites to earn interest? I also remember other WOers warning them about the possibility of losing their coins, stressing the importance of NYKNYC and all...
I sincerely hope the damage was minimal or at least manageable. Let this serve as a lesson to all, affected or not, that uncontrollable greed is a dangerous thing that can take your coins, your sanity and even your life.
Speaking of greed, isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...
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ATH (2021) / ATH (2017) Ratio: $69000 / $19666 = 3.5
Since the numbers/ratios for the previous cycles are not 3.5 and 6.3, they will most probably not be 3.5/6.3 for current/future cycles either. So the math is too simplistic and, sorry, but probably wrong. You're probably right, but consider that Bitcoin is maturing, so things get progressively more stable and, dare I say, more predictable. Will see how things play out. |
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WARNING: Extremely simplistic math predictions follow:
End-of-2017 ATH: $19666
End-of-2018 Bottom: $3122
ATH / Bottom Ratio: $19666 / $3122 = 6.3
4 years (a Halving) later...
End-of-2021 ATH: $69000
End-of-2022 Bottom (predicted): $69000 / 6.3 = $10952
ATH (2021) / ATH (2017) Ratio: $69000 / $19666 = 3.5
4 years (a Halving) later...
End-of-2025 ATH (predicted): $69000 x 3.5 = $241500
Bitstamp prices.
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I've just received an email from Kraken, with the usual "your funds are safe, we keep our coins 1:1" message. I don't have any significant amount of coins in there (just some leftovers from moving whole amounts of coins out to my Trezor), but I guess the email gets sent to all registered users.
Personally, I don't think Kraken is at serious risk of collapsing in the manner of FTX/Celsius, and I would be very surprised if this happened. But one can never be too careful when it comes to coin custody. So, even with Kraken, and as always, I would apply the "not your keys, not your coins" rule.
Be extra careful, WOers. It's one thing to be a nocoiner, but quite another to become a nocoiner. The pain is orders of magnitude greater.
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"Speaking for all the bitcoiners, we feel like we're trapped in a dysfunctional relationship with crypto and we want out."Never have truer words been spoken. Although I have some criticisms of Saylor, I do tend to find myself agreeing with almost everything he's said over the last couple of years. +1 A true and perfectly phrased comment by Saylor. The faster the crypto space disintegrates, the better. I hope this latest collapse serves as free NYKNYC education for the masses (free for most, very expensive for some). I was pondering whether I should say anything about that Saylor interview. Let me break my silence. I thought that the interview was not very good - because it seemed to me that Saylor was not really answering the questions very well - because Saylor kept suggesting that bitcoin is the best, and shitcoins suck and even there are needs to regulate scammers - and even though there may be some correctness in points that he was making, I felt that the points were not really being very well expressed to get to the heart of the matter, even though it is possible that regulation could have fixed some of these matters, but it is almost acting as if there is a need for a world-wide government to regulate exchanges - and surely legislators are not going to carry that out in any kind of way that is going to be helpful in terms of empowering regular people to not have their money stolen or to have central parties engaging in fraudulent misrepresentations regarding their solvency and their use of client funds to gamble or to rehypothecate multiple circular propping up of the value of their Ponzi-scheme shitshow of appearances of value.. until the many houses of cards come crumbling down way quicker than anyone would have expected.. .. like going from something like $32 Billion to zero or even lower than zero in a matter of a few days. It's not that I really disagree completely with Saylor - but it seems that fraud laws are already in place - so the vague calls for regulation seemed problematic in terms of solutions to the problem of attempting to re-inspire confidence of institutions in regards to the likely ongoingly good long-term investment thesis in bitcoin. For me, it is surely NOT any kind of "hit it out of the ballpark" interview in regards to the sad times that we are currently going through with our ongoing negative price pressures on our lil precious.. I don't disagree with any of the things you're saying. This was not one of the good interviews of Saylor. My post was referring to his comment, highlighted in purple above, which I think was very well put. It is true that over the last several years the Bitcoin space has been invaded by thousands of "crypto projects", the vast majority of which are greed-driven "solutions" searching for a problem, and negate all the important properties that make Bitcoin what it is. But, yes, Saylor was not at his best in this interview. He seemed a little uneasy and frustrated. Bitcoin is not currently where he was expecting it to be, as, I'm sure, is the case for many of us WOers, including yours truly. But I'm not worried. To me, all this Luna, Celsius, FTX shit is a robustness test for Bitcoin. It was bound to happen, and it will keep happening. There is no point in trying to shield Bitcoin from all this. The network should be able to handle it without external help. And it does, with flying colors. And all this makes it stronger, while weeding out all the scams and shitcoins and Ponzis. There are side-effects, for sure. Every time this happens, the price dips and progress gets delayed by a few months or a year. Smart players take advantage of those situations by stacking more coins at bargain prices and patiently HoDLing and waiting it out, while weak hands sell at a loss or get wiped out by having given their keys to scammers like SBF. I think all of this is organic, inevitable and expected. And it strengthens Bitcoin in the long term. Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme, and anyone who treats it as such will have to face the consequences sooner or later. |
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"Speaking for all the bitcoiners, we feel like we're trapped in a dysfunctional relationship with crypto and we want out." Never have truer words been spoken. Although I have some criticisms of Saylor, I do tend to find myself agreeing with almost everything he's said over the last couple of years. +1 A true and perfectly phrased comment by Saylor. The faster the crypto space disintegrates, the better. I hope this latest collapse serves as free NYKNYC education for the masses (free for most, very expensive for some). |
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