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1121  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 07:41:21 PM
Have you ever thought how much your Bitcoin stash would weigh if it was converted to gold?

Man, I now realise how impractical that metal really is as a SoV.



I see he's in the process of being transformed to Talebozo the Clown.

Suits him fine.
1122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 14, 2021, 04:52:03 PM
Well... i have been dormant for a while, only recently came back on. I do not regret converting my BTC into Fiat, especially since it gave me the freedom to not be in Debt! In hindsight, i can say that i made full use of the bitcoin i had, it actually all boils down to what makes you happy i guess! In my case, i used it for paying off my mortgage much faster than the 20 year plan i had (paid off in 2 years!). Paid off a new car, bike and went on umpteen holidays which is something my wife and I both love, invested in my hobby of diecast collection, which in itself is worth a fair bit right now!

Do i regret not having all 21 BTC, sure i do, i would have retired without a second thought if i had that kind of purchasing power but then i am looking at a retirement at 40 opposed to 50 which was my earlier plan and it is all because of Bitcoin!

Forgive me for sounding a bit harsh, micky123, but I sense a teeny-weeny tiny little itsy-bitsy degree of bitterness and saltiness in your post. I can bet that you would die to turn back time and skip that car, bike and holiday spendings. It's OK, you had fun, I understand that, but was it really worth it?

What I would like from my BTC, would be to firstly and foremostly solve the problems that really matter to me. Life-changing issues like freeing myself from wage-slavery (not really a wage-slave, but not free either), taking care of my retirement, guaranteeing a minimum income for life, providing me with a decent standard of living.

After doing all of the math and all of the science of all of the above, then I'd spend some of my leftover stash for a car, holidays, or whatever else I fancy. But, I wouldn't even think of doing even a tiny fraction of the equivalent of buying a purse for 17 BTC, when I only have 17 BTC...

Edit: Fixed typo.
1123  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 08:34:41 PM
Wow! Guys!

I've just calculated that I can now use my BTC to cover my living expenses for the next 127.2 years!

Should I quit my job?

This is tough shit.

Yeah but how are you calculating the value?  based on $63k?  Sure you might get lucky, but we should not be basing our fuck-you lever pulling planning on luck (not to bring up luck again, because luck might be a past appreciation rather than something that you anticipate as a given, especially "good" luck).

If you are using $63k or anything close to that, then that kind of framing would not be a good measure.. there are peeps here that you could ask about their experiences in doing that (I am not going to provide names).  

Now if you are using some other kind of calculation, would be interesting to hear about it.  

You know my measure, which is currently just over $11k and seems to be going up a few hundred every week.. so in no time, we should be supra $20k with that one.. I am sure that there are other less conservative measures, and I suppose that those could be used as well for guys who might be on the margins (or is it on the cusp?  or on the threshold) of pulling the fuck you lever.. and not clear about if it would be too risky..

Also, is your 127.2 years accounting for medical?

By the way, any calculation that can go as far as 127.2 years, should also be able to have a built in function to figure out an amount (that might be slightly lower) that is perpetual.. meaning that you are ONLY living off of the passive income... of course, since all of us are mortal, we could have a kind of provision that ends up UPping the spending in what we project to be our last years of life in order to use up most or all of it - to the extent that we are not planning to pass on wealth.

By the way (II), even though I am using a calculator that only is currently giving me $11k per coin, right now, I am actually using 12% per year as an amount that I can withdraw based on that indicator rather than the traditional 4%.. so the low number is not as bad as it might seem, and it still gives me numbers that are quite great, even for my situation and projecting into the future.. I mean I already have income coming in that I am trying to surpass in order that I can start dipping into my corns.

Jay, and to the others who commented on my above quoted post:

This was a quick calculation based on $63k/BTC, but take into consideration that I'm not going to live another 127.2 years. A more realistic number would be 40 years, based on some standard life expectancy estimate. Doing the math & science on that, we end up with a more conservative Bitcoin valuation of about $20k/BTC. This is pretty close to where your 208-week moving average indicator is soon going to be, so I'm not too far off there, am I? My calculation was only meant as a semi-joke, which was sparked by a meeting we had today at work, where I disagreed on a few things, and almost threw a "fuck you" on the table, thanks to King Daddy.

No, my calculation does not include medical. My government will provide it once I reach a certain age, but not earlier (if I'm unemployed), which is an important factor to consider.

No, I'm not planning to quit my job just yet, but the fact that I can do it gives me peace of mind and enables me to handle things better and to my advantage.

Dabs gave a good answer. Also, I appreciate Jimbo's comment on frugal living, which certainly adds years to my calculation.
1124  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 02:53:20 PM
Wow! Guys!

I've just calculated that I can now use my BTC to cover my living expenses for the next 127.2 years!

Should I quit my job?

This is tough shit.
1125  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 02:48:06 PM
Yes, I like to buy 'them ATHs, lol.

Same here, I'm always afraid to buy the dip but never scared of buying at ATH.

I must be a bit dumb.

No.

Buying BTC at any time is the new definition of "smart".
1126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2021, 02:30:36 PM
Here I am, back from work, and I fire up Bitstamp & WO, and what do I see? A pump for ants?

Come on, Bitcoin, do something! $63k doesn't quite cut it.

VE NEED MOAR!
1127  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2021, 03:12:43 PM
^^^ I certainly keep hold of the keys to my life-saving, life-changing stash. Where it matters.

As for my coffee money, I don't care if they are held by someone else that I should have to trust. It's OK, I trust them. And if they steal my coffee money, so be it. I'll switch to another custodian.

Making coffee-sized transactions on-chain is like using a nuclear-bomb-reinforced safe to store your pocket change. I don't want to add that burden to the network.

That's the way I see it, at least...
1128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2021, 02:23:55 PM
One of my mates from Finland took his salary out in BTC in 2013 already Smiley

OK, now, can you please tell him to stop dumping and let the price go to $70k?
1129  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2021, 10:53:52 AM
$60k doesn't want to fall, it seems...

It looks like small, incremental ant-pumps won't cut it. We need a massive, mega-pump of the Elon/Saylor variety to be able to shift the equilibrium $5k-$10k higher.

Looks like $70k is a requirement, before $60k is gone for good.


Damn it, had to do some stuff @ work (@ home actually, but work stuff), and missed the Euro-ATH!

Come on, USD, you can do it too.

Is this the break we are waiting for?  Smiley

Oh, and I'll eat my dick on national TV if COVID-19 vaccines contain 5G chips. Which I won't, because they don't.

And many of us wouldn't be alive if there were no vaccines. Not saying we should blindly accept the current COVID-19 vaccines as safe, but we all know how conspiracy theories thrive in times of crisis. Alex Jones must be ecstatic—He's got years of new material for his content.

Use your brain, take off the tin-foil.

Ascending triangle still in play, should complete within 24-48 hours.
Some shitcoins doing wider swings, the gains would optimally flow back into BTC at that time -> B00M Smiley


I'm not good at this sort of thing, but I like the way you put it. Sounds like a well thought-out, math & science kind of thing.

Let's hope it b00ms soon.
1130  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2021, 09:53:25 AM
Damn it, had to do some stuff @ work (@ home actually, but work stuff), and missed the Euro-ATH!

Come on, USD, you can do it too.

Is this the break we are waiting for?  Smiley

Oh, and I'll eat my dick on national TV if COVID-19 vaccines contain 5G chips. Which I won't, because they don't.

And many of us wouldn't be alive if there were no vaccines. Not saying we should blindly accept the current COVID-19 vaccines as safe, but we all know how conspiracy theories thrive in times of crisis. Alex Jones must be ecstatic—He's got years of new material for his content.

Use your brain, take off the tin-foil.
1131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2021, 06:18:15 PM
[...]

But with Tesla accepting bitcoin I want to buy a Tesla, but if it's a battery technology I know that it makes sense to buy a new car. So the Tesla I'd like to buy is over $100k. I can certainly afford it. But it's such a huge leap. The first house I bought was nice, had 3 acres of land and only cost me $85k. I just can't imagine buying a car that's more expensive than what I'd pay for a house (don't get me started on the prices of houses right now...).

[...]

As someone once said here in WO, when you're buying a Tesla with Bitcoin, what's really happening is Tesla is doing the buying and you are doing the selling.

Eventually I'll need a car, and all I have is bitcoin.

So...the last time I needed to buy a car I was selling and the local guy I sell bitcoin to was doing the buying.

At least doing it directly I save the 3% fee.

Of course, if I had as many BTC as you, and only had BTC and not fiat, that's exactly what I would do too, and it would make perfect sense. I merely wanted to stress the fact that we should sell our precious coins only when we have to. Anything that can be bought with spare fiat, should be bought with spare fiat, until there is no more spare fiat to spend. Bitcoin should be the last asset to spend.
1132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2021, 05:12:32 PM
As someone once said here in WO, when you're buying a Tesla with Bitcoin, what's really happening is Tesla is doing the buying and you are doing the selling.

Not sure if on WO someone else also said it before me

When you use Bitcoin to buy Tesla in reality it’s Elon Musk who’s buying Bitcoin with Tesla.

You were the one! Thanks for reminding me (us).
1133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2021, 03:44:54 PM
[...]

But with Tesla accepting bitcoin I want to buy a Tesla, but if it's a battery technology I know that it makes sense to buy a new car. So the Tesla I'd like to buy is over $100k. I can certainly afford it. But it's such a huge leap. The first house I bought was nice, had 3 acres of land and only cost me $85k. I just can't imagine buying a car that's more expensive than what I'd pay for a house (don't get me started on the prices of houses right now...).

[...]

As someone once said here in WO, when you're buying a Tesla with Bitcoin, what's really happening is Tesla is doing the buying and you are doing the selling.
1134  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2021, 03:09:51 PM
Wasn't he referring to seasonal rains?

Isn’t it Bitcoin season?

Yes, since 2009 actually  Grin

Of course, overall bitcoin has done quite well since it went live in January 2009, yet who the hell really knew about it for some time... except for a few guys that were really in the nerdiest of nerdy circles in terms maybe having some potential technical knowledge.

And, still bitcoin did not really get any kind of attempts at tangible price discovery until around May 2010, the time of the pizzas transaction.. and maybe there have been some spreading of the news about bitcoin as the price was getting assigned to it and it was being found out about by more and more people.  I am pretty sure that I heard the word, "bitcoin" a few times before I looked into it, and maybe I just thought something superficial that it is a kind of invented money like Lindy Dollars or whatever.

I do believe that we should be attempting to consider some of the nuances of bitcoin's price movements and cycles which does seem to cause it to have seasons in which some folks could well be in a world of hurt if they are not able to figure out strategies to get through the cycles.. both financially and psychology, and surely hardly any of us were able to get into bitcoin in 2009 or even sometime soon thereafter be able to have some of the pleasures of experiencing the price appreciation of its whole life... We only know about bitcoin between 2009 and whatever time that we got in through the experiences of others - not that I am saying that you actually "have to" own bitcoin in order to benefit from its invention and they incentive systems that it has set up that will likely end up benefiting everyone, whether they own it or not... and sure the owners of bitcoin do seem to have gotten quite rewarded through the years and likely to continue to be rewarded as far as what seems to be likely in the future.

To level up, you need merits and activity, and to become Legendary you need 1000 merits and an activity of 775-1030 (chosen at random).

He had the merits, not the activity.

Gawd, i got it wrong (again). I'm not surprised, like most of you aren't too...  Roll Eyes

EDIT: Maybe BTC can buy me a reliable brain again in the future. But then i will be old, so i won't need it by then  Angry

Don't worry, the fact that you own BTC means that you belong to the top 0.1% of the smartest people on Earth. Your brain is fine.

I hate to quibble with a fellow bull - but seems to me that there is some level of smarts and luck in terms of finding out about bitcoin and then acting upon such knowledge.   When I found out about bitcoin in late 2013, I was so damned ready for it because it seemed to have been exactly the investment category that I was looking for and so maybe I am one of the rare ones in which the concept clicked almost immediately in terms of the proposition of bitcoin and my desire to get a stake in it, but I surely am not claiming to be any kind of genius in terms of the strategy that I established and if there might have been some better ways of going about my investment into bitcoin in terms of where I was at at the time that I found out about it.

And, yeah, I use the term "found out about it" loosely because I hardly even knew exactly what bitcoin was except for some descriptions of it and what it was trying to achieve, and so part of my initial goal was to start to get a stake in bitcoin but to also study the matter at the same time and to figure out if maybe I needed to readjust my strategies or my ideas about what it was that I was investing into.

There are so many people who neither had the luxury of being in the mental/financial place that I was when I got into bitcoin nor are there many people who have the luxury to spend a lot of time studying a matter...

Many of us heard about the August 2020 article regarding yuppies dismissing bitcoin (a r/bitcoin link on the topic, too), and yuppies are considered to be smart people, but the article is likely correct about some mental blocks that cause difficulties for them to take action in terms of either investing into bitcoin or researching into it more.  Most of them will likely come around sooner or later, and many of them are likely smarter than a lot of us here, just smart in different ways that end up causing them to be a bit of laggards in the likely largest transfer of wealth in our lifetimes, and perhaps the largest peaceful transfer of wealth in the history of man, perhaps?  perhaps?

I agree, luck has certainly played a role for many of us in our Bitcoin journey. But not just luck. I think that one needs to have a suitably capable brain to be able to get into Bitcoin and stay into it for the long run. The true early adopters were the "nerdiest of nerds", as you say, but they had brains too. At least those who kept their coins. Bitcoin was (and still is to some extent) a difficult thing to get into. You can't just go to a shop and buy it. You have to really want to own it, and, to some extent, you need to put some effort (physically and mentally) to get into it. This immediately pushes the lazy, weak, or dumb ones away from it.

On this coming Saturday (the 17th) I've arranged a meeting with a nocoiner cousin of mine, and we'll be meeting at my other cousin's house. So it will be me, my coiner cousin, and another nocoiner cousin. The purpose of the meeting is to initiate the nocoiner into Bitcoin, registering with an exchange, buying his first BTC (only BTC and no other type of coin, I will insist on this), transferring to a wallet, maybe a paper wallet, and also explain the underlying math & science behind Bitcoin. This takes effort, it's not an easy thing to do, even today. Just imagine those really early adopters. Setting up Linux boxes, installing the s/w, trying to understand the tech, and mining out of their CPUs/GPUs something that had no value, or very little value. It was not for everyone. You had to be nerdy, geeky, smartie, lucky, and open-minded, to want to do this. I applaud these guys.

As for me, I first heard about Bitcoin on the news on TV, can't remember when, probably back in 2010-11. Of course, news pieces are designed for dummies and did not really explain it properly. And it was quick too, barely 1 minute long. They just said "digital money", "being able to transact digitally over long distances". So what? Don't credit cards do that? What's so new about it? And the name "Bitcoin" didn't impress me for some reason. I actually hated the sound of that word. Yuck! "Who came up with that ugly name?", I said. And that was the end of it. I forgot about it. The next few times I heard about it was when Silk Road was shut down (2013), and MtGox collapsed (early 2014). Again on the news, and portrayed very negatively. And that was it again, I dismissed it, erased it from my brain and moved on.

I started seriously investigating about Bitcoin in late 2014. Here's an email I sent to a dear friend of mine (now a coiner), dated November 2014 (copy/pasted from my "Sent Mail" folder just now):

                   Sorry for not getting back to you earlier, I forgot to send you those links about the topics we discussed on Sunday. Actually I can't remember all the things that I should send you links for. Here are the topics I do remember:

Ponzi Scheme (Wikipedia's article),
bitaddress.org (Bitcoin wallet generator),
offlineaddress.com (similar to the above),
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System (Bitcoin's White Paper, by Satoshi Nakamoto).

Let me know if I've forgotten something. One thing is certain. This is a big thing that has the potential to change the world. We should investigate about Bitcoin as soon as possible and understand it as much as we can. Study it (esp. the last link), and we'll discuss about it again.
                   

The above is the earliest email record I have, where I'm seriously discussing about Bitcoin. Notice my first link: Ponzi Scheme. I was reluctant to accept Bitcoin at the time, because I had not studied it and did not really understand it. I remember reading the White Paper and getting goose bumps on my spine. It was like a revelation to me. I spent the entire week researching about it. I then called my friend on Skype and told him: "We've got to buy Bitcoin ASAP!"

I bought my first 0.5 BTC for about $100 in mid-2015, using a local Bitcoin ATM. 3 months later, I bought another 2 (or was it 3?) BTC for $1000 from the same Bitcoin ATM (price had risen since my first purchase). And that was my (admittedly, very late) start. Then came Andreas Antonopoulos, with his wonderful books and talks, that firmly cemented and gave rigor and structure to what I had already understood about Bitcoin. That was the "point of no return" for me. I was sold. I just knew that this was something big, something very big, and I was so excited to be part of it. And here we are, posting "come on, Bitcoin, do something" memes @ $60k...

So... Luck? Brains? Nerdiness? Craziness? All of the above? I don't know. But it sure has changed my life. And so far it's been the most exciting journey I've even experienced. And the best is yet to come!

Thank you, Satoshi, whoever and wherever you are.
1135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2021, 11:14:22 AM
Play this tonight/tomorrow, while we fight and win the battle for $62k...

Two Steps From Hell - Victory
1136  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2021, 09:17:10 AM
Breaking ATH today will be so cool!

I'm going to visit my little niece & nephew again tonight, and their daddy is the cryptocurrency coiner cousin I posted about earlier! Sadly, he doesn't own BTC, but he's OK with his altcoins, and he's in (modest) profit too, so it's always great to chat with him, the vibes and atmosphere are so upbeat. Whenever we meet, I always recommend to him to move all his altcoins to BTC once he's satisfied with the profits. I hope one day he'll listen to me...
1137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2021, 09:05:22 AM
To level up, you need merits and activity, and to become Legendary you need 1000 merits and an activity of 775-1030 (chosen at random).

He had the merits, not the activity.

Gawd, i got it wrong (again). I'm not surprised, like most of you aren't too...  Roll Eyes

EDIT: Maybe BTC can buy me a reliable brain again in the future. But then i will be old, so i won't need it by then  Angry

Don't worry, the fact that you own BTC means that you belong to the top 0.1% of the smartest people on Earth. Your brain is fine.
1138  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2021, 08:47:56 AM




Did you level up?
If so, congratulations!

Why did I need 1000 merits to level up? I don't understand the level system any more.

To level up, you need merits and activity, and to become Legendary you need 1000 merits and an activity of 775-1030 (chosen at random).

He had the merits, not the activity. His lucky number was 924 (or slightly less).
1139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2021, 08:12:05 AM
There is a big sell wall at $61,200... Why?

OTOH, why not?
1140  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2021, 06:46:46 AM




Congrats, VB1001!

Merits we can help you with, but activity is all up to you...

Well deserved!
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