The replacement cost is calculated based on all hashing power coming from a single design so it shouldn't be taken as likely but more an upper bound.  I think there might be an error in the math as well.

The cost to reach the "break even point" is based on current cost so I don't find it too useful, because cost will decline significantly.  The network will approach a small margin below the break even point.  It is only a matter of time.  You can consider that the equilibrium point, we have seen it occur in the GPU era for a couple of years.  If more efficient hardware is produced then the hashrate will rise, if the exchange rate rises then the hashrate will rise, as mining moves to lower cost areas the hashrate will rise, if the exchange rate falls the hashrate will fall.  However the network will approach and stay close to a margin below the break even point.  How close?  It really depends on miners and what risk they are taking.

To "noob proof" it maybe just 1 day hashrate and provide the time since last block.  I am too lazy to do the math but given that Bitcoin is a poisson distribution one can provide a 95% confidence interval as a sanity check "WARNING time since last block exceeds 95% confidence interval for 50 TH/s".

Awesome find goat.  Congrats.


If the COA isn't to your liking them just make another one something that would be museum quality, I am sure LB wouldn't mind signing it if you destroy the original (so only one COA remains).  The block of an era.  Soon (3 years) we will be looking at 12.5 BTC blocks and it will likely require an entire datacenter rack with more than 1 PH/s to have any reasonable chance of finding a block.  It will be cool to see the single graphics card which solved the last 50 BTC block.

If you have a UPS store in your area (or neighbor you trust) you can use "My UPS" (on UPS website) to redirect a package.  There is a fee, I think it is $5.  You need to signup but you can't redirect a package until you have the tracking number.  If interested I would sign up now to avoid any problems.  The bad news is sometimes I have found you either can't redirect a package or it will show the redirect won't arrive until the next morning.  Not sure if this is an option set by the shipper.  Last time I used it was over a year ago so maybe it is better now.


If you really want to be sure open a PO Box at a UPS store and update your delivery address with KNC.  The UPS store will sign for any packages (not just UPS but any carrier including USPS) and send you a text message when you have a package.  You can get the smallest box because they will sign and hold packages of any size.  You never have to worry about not being there to sign packages or packages going missing from your front porch.  Given the value of one day of mining in Sept it might be worth it to ensure you get the package first day.


In hindsight this post looks like a UPS infomercial.  To counter balance the pro-UPS hype here is a spoof of UPS (why you always seem to miss the UPS guy).  http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6381207/how-ups-deliveries-actually-work

I think the term is "reversion to the mean".  

Honestly not sure why the author chose these timeframes because they do nothing but add confusion.  A 30 day, 7 day, and 1 day graph would be more useful. Maybe add in a "since last dividend" and "since start of mining" column.

ASICMiner's historical hashrate (all blocks over all time since the start of mining) has only averaged ~30 TH/s.  This lifetime average has flatlined (growth slowed to a crawl) over the last couple weeks.  Not sure why but, you only get paid on what is actually mined.

The issue here is you are comparing the chip level for one product to the board level for another product to the system level for the rest of the products.

For example if BFL delivers a 600 GH/s card which has 1,666 MH/J efficiency it requires a host system with one or more PCIe slots (50W min), case fans (3x12W ea?), and a AC PSU which is say 90% efficient at load.  So BFL would have a total DC load of 436W which is a 484W AC load (assume 90% efficient PSU).  600 GH/s / 484W = 1240 MH/J.  Of course with more fans, higher system wattage, or worse PSU it would be even lower.

Cointerra is even more an unknown.  We don't even know the board level wattage (@12V), what type of controller will be used, is it a custom enclosure, if so how many fans, etc.  That makes trying to estimate a system wattage totally unknown.  Also as indicated above I can't see to find a cite for Cointerra indicating a specific efficiency even just for the chip. However even if Cointerra chip(s) deliver 2TH/s using 1200W the ASIC (like all other ASICs will run at @0.8V to 1.2V) and need a DC to DC PSU to convert the 12V supplied by the AC PSU to the ~1V required by the chip.  The DC wattage would then be 1200/0.9 = 1,333W @ 12VDC.  If we assume the balance of the system is a Pi or other micro controller (5W and 3x 1A fans) it would make total system wattage 1374W DC = 1527W AC.  That would put the efficiency at the plug ~1300 MH/J.

Simple version
System AC ("at the wall") wattage = System DC Wattage / ATX PSU efficiency *   
System DC wattage = ASIC Board(s) wattage + balance of system (controllers, fans, waterpump, etc) **
Board DC Wattage = ASIC Wattage / DC to DC PSU ***

* Depends on ATX PSU efficiency at the particular load.  As a power customer you pay for wattage at the wall.  This will always be higher than the DC wattage used by the system due to PSU inefficiency.  If unknown a good upper bound is 90% efficiency.  More efficient PSU are possible but they generally require 230V and are more expensive (google "80 Plus Titanium")

** Rasberry Pi uses <5W.  BFL PCIe card will require a system with one or more PCIe slots which means a "traditional" motherboard and >50W.  If case fans or pumps are unknown an estimate of 12W per 120mm fan and 20W per pump (HashFast) is reasonable.  Without knowing the exact components we can't know the exact system wattage but for example nobody is going to use fans which use half a watt or a water pump that uses 100W or PC host which uses 10W.

*** ATX PSU supplies high current power at 12V however no ASIC runs at that voltage.  Each ASIC board will need to convert the 12V to the voltage used by the ASIC.  This will vary from ASIC to ASIC but is generally in the range of 0.6V to 1.3V.  Good high current DC to DC power supplies are expensive (up to $1 per watt) and generally are less than 90% efficient.  Lower cost PSU will provide significantly reduced efficiency (80% to 84%).

Do you have a link to this.  I thought Cointerra simply said significantly below 1GH/W.  Also I need full system power not the chip.  Even if it is an estimate the manufacturer I will use it if they are willing to put it into writing.

IceDrill indicated they were not given the MPP it was for "retail" customers only and they also indicated they will take delivery of raw chips directly. 

As for a second run it is possible but unless they intend to do a second rocket run that would be tight to have completed by November so maybe they went with two lots (50 wafers) and that would give them more chips upfront.

FYPFY.  Lots are generally 25 not 2 wafers.  

If they are doing a rocket run a single lot is very likely.  As indicated above even at 100% yield 25 wafers is only 4,525 chips.
IceDrill has bought 250 TH/s of gear.  At a nominal 400 GH/s per chip that is 625 chips.  They sold another 550 direct and will have to allocate up to 2,200 more for the MPP.  So up to 3,375 chips are already allocated.   

I assume they will use the excess chips (plus any in the MPP allocation not needed) to either self mine or offer additional sales once pre-orders have been delivered.

Or once again ... sell the chips to someone else.

Then again all units have been sold, there is nobody for your to "protect" anymore.  Not really sure why you are here?

At $100 exchange rate and $0.10 electrical rate?  That is correct.  Obviously each miner's efficiency will vary as will their electrical rates and their "pain threshold" (how negative of a margin they are willing to accept before shutting down) but generally speaking yes.

Which is why nobody bought bitfury or Avalon chips.  Oh wait they did.   The company has already indicated they will have boards available and if there is a market (and 880TH/s is ~ 4x the mining capacity of all Avalon chips sold) third parties will offer the same thing.

Come on you don't honestly think the only option for someone buying chips is to break out their soldering iron and home build a board do you? 

Or you could sell the chips.  What do you think chips will be worth in GH/s in January?  $4 per GH/s?  $2 per GH/s $1 per GH/s?  Lets use $1.  1,600 GH/s is $1,600.  So sell the chips to someone else, maybe someone like you who was looking to buy a miner but missed the chance.  

Except in reality probably not.  Miners have generally not preferred technology which has a higher capital cost and marginally lower operating cost.  I don't see that changing anytime soon.   A company dumping millions (plural) into 20nm NRE knowing their marginal cost of production is higher than 28nm counterparts would be taking a massive risk.  The only way to put that risk on consumers would be through pre-orders.  I don't really see pre-orders that cost MORE (per MH) than available gear being popular.

If today you could get a miner from one company at $10 and 1 W per GHash with delivery tomorrow OR you could pre-order one from another company for $15 and 0.5W per GHash with delivery in 60 to 75 days would you really pick the latter?

Well he seemed to think the fact that they are included at all = the death of Bitcoin.  I was just providing a way for him to "save" Bitcoin from the ebil developers. 

You are free to use and distribute a fork of the client without any checkpoints.  Checkpoints aren't required. Assumming an attacker isn't attempting to DDOS your node by filling it with years worth of bogus blocks or try to perform a 51% attack months deep in the chain the lack of checkpoint will have absolutely no effect on your node.

So if you are worried then remove the checkpoints, compile it and use that node.  If you are really worried set up an online mirror and advertise your checkpoint free version.

See peer to peer at work.

In the long run yes however I was more looking for the short term.   Once shipping in volume margins on hardware is going to collapse and trend towards a small markup over cost.  Still even if raw silicon is $0.20 per GH/s the overall system is going to be higher.  Even simple stuff like high quality DC to DC PSU aren't cheap and can easily be more than the ASIC itself.  Throw in AC power supply, case, cooling, testing, assembly, labor, etc and you will be hard pressed to build a system below $1 per GH/s.

However the smaller stuff can be pumped out at an even lower price point.  Maybe $2 per GH/s.  The raw silicon costs have the potential to be the minority of the overall system. Take HF chip. 19mm x19mm @ 28nm.  If you assume $10K per 300mm wafer it works out to ~$0.15 per GH/s.  Granted you still have testing, cutting, packaging, etc so lets say $0.25 per GH/s. However say HF (or Bitfury or KNC) decides to just sell raw chips in bulk @ $2 per GH/s and system builder builds a rig for another $1 per GH/s. and marks it up a buck for say $4 per GH/s.  That is getting close to the build cost @ 110nm.  Now consider that even if you could buy a rig from either process for $4 per GH/s.  Why would you buy then one which uses almost 12x the power for the same hashrate.

The good news is that ASICMiner and Avalon should have plenty of cash to tape out a smaller process chip, something in the 28 to 55 nm range.

More expensive means higher MH/$.  Why would anyone want that.  I even pointed out it is likely there will be more efficient 28nm chips but given the higher cost of 20nm chips a given design (any design of any efficiency) would cost MORE not LESS at 20nm.  Once again why would anyone want MORE expensive chips?

Added.  Thanks.