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521  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Social aspects of online gambling on: January 16, 2024, 09:49:17 PM
To the people that have maybe tried both online and physical gambling, how do you perceive the socialization aspects of online gambling?

Physical Vs online casinos are like night and day. The difference is huge. For physical casinos, maybe except slot games etc, the social element is often the most important factor for people to come there. That's especially true nowadays when everyone has access to online gambling at any time, so the only reason to bother to go to a physical casino is to meet other people.
The social element online is often lacking or non-existent, although there are exceptions, e.g. some poker sites or some smaller dice sites when people interact in chats and get to know each other overtime.

If social interactions are what you're looking for, I'd be looking for such outside of gambling. There are plenty of other, healthier activities where you could meet people.
522  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Good sportsbetting content on: January 16, 2024, 09:36:56 PM
If you guys like sportsbetting. What type of content to do you like to see, what where do you like to consume it?

Talking about regular content: daily/weekly picks could be OK, but I think there are plenty of those already. Maybe some picks of good value bets, where the odds seem to be misjudged by the bookies etc. That would be much more valuable, but harder to source.

As a one-time material, I've always been interested in how sports-betting sites determine odds for events, i.e. how things work "under the hood".

For example, do you like instagram shorts of daily picks, or blog posts on the match ups, or funny videos etc

Since you're asking on this forum, then bitcointalk would likely be the most preferable place, since all of the respondents are active here. For more lengthy comments, videos tend to work much better, so probably a youtube and/or other video hosting platforms.
You could make a dedicated thread here, posting updates, links to videos etc.
523  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Are successful gamblers seen as addicts? on: January 16, 2024, 09:23:54 PM
Technically speaking, whether or not someone is addicted to gambling is independent of whether they are profitable or are making losses.
But in practice, if someone is actually making a living out of gambling (which is almost unheard of unless we consider poker as gambling) that would indicate they are very analytical and can take emotions out of the equation, which, in turn, means they would only bet when/if they think it'll be profitable and have enough discipline to withhold from betting on an impulse. So pretty much opposite traits to what we would see in gambling addicts.
524  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 16, 2024, 06:25:13 PM
We can not blame others who think Sean Strickland got that belt because of luck as many here are fans of Israel Adesanya and because Alex Pereira defeated Strickland in the past and Adesanya made a comeback for his belt and won a great battle against Alex Pereira you can not blame them if they think that Adesanya can beat Strickland easily, as that Trash talking has got into him for sure Sean Strickland will still need to prove his worth, for sure that defense of Strickland really is effective against Adesanya for sure he is still enhancing that defense of him,

I don't understand how can anyone claim that Strickland won the belt due to luck. You could say that if he had won by a lucky punch etc, but they fought a full distance and he dominated Adesanya in 4 out of 5 rounds (iirc).
In his last 11 fights he lost only to Pereira who, since then, proved he's a real deal by winning the middleweight belt and then the lightweight belt.
There's no real shame in losing to a champion of a higher weight class. Plus, Sean probably improved a lot since that fight, also by having Alex as his sparring partner.
525  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou - March 9 on: January 16, 2024, 06:11:26 PM
I think he's going to be far more dangerous in this fight. The pressure of his first fight is off his shoulders and he knows what he can and can't do now. He's shown he can go the distance with the current heavyweight champion and on paper Tyson should be a tougher fight than AJ. Ngannou said he wasn't using full power against Fury either as he was worried about gassing out early. It's up to you whether you believe him or not but he didn't seem to be swinging as wildly as he usually does in the UFC so now he knows he can go the full 10 rounds I think we'll probably see a lot more power this time.

That's true, but pressure is not always a bad thing. It did work for him pretty nicely in a fight against Fury. Him getting more confident could result in becoming too reckless or overcommitting and getting countered, but hopefully his mma experience will prevent that.
Looking at it from other perspective, he potentially have more in stake right now. The first fight was probably planned as a one off thing, but since he performed surprisingly well, he now could be fast-tracked into being in the top of the top in boxing. But if he gets ridiculed by AJ, then it would be obvious that the first fight was just a fluke and his boxing career could be over.
526  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 16, 2024, 05:56:19 PM
The last thing I have heard about him that only in early 2024 he will get back to fully training MMA. His injury was torn achilles, and for normal person it takes half a year for a total recovery. For a professional athlete it will take quicker, but I cant imagine how long it will take to get back to previous results. Dont know how much it is gonna take Hill to recover. He is a puncher, but footwork is also important for him. If he was a kicker, then I think we would have to wait longer. I have checked his Instagram, and he is no way close to gym Cheesy

The last thing I heard about him was something about him assaulting his brother, or something like that.
Yeah, that's the problem, recovering from an injury is one thing and getting back to the previous shape is another. Many fighters fail to ever go back to their previous form after serious injuries. And on top of that, whoever he's going to fight next, it won't be an easy fight, so getting a lot of proper sparring sessions will be a key for him.

Four days till fun and freaky Sean Strickland vs DDP fight and we barely have a discussion here Cheesy While we previously had a hot discussion when Strickland all of a sudden became a champ Cheesy What are your prediction right now? Will Strickland be able to make at least one title defence, or has got that belt by luck (or gonna lose it because he is such a reckless guy). Imho DDP is going to knock him out this weekend. I close my eyes and see it is going to be something similar to what Pereira did, also a punch.

For what it's worth, I have a feeling Du Plessis will be taking the belt from Sean. But from more logical approach, Sean's defence is pretty solid when he stays focussed and has a better cardio, so that's a slight advantage. The problem is both like to be the aggressive ones who keep pressing forward. If that happens, the risk of brawl increases, which benefits Du Plessis more. So the question is: will Sean be able to stay on the outside and play the long game?
527  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou - March 9 on: January 15, 2024, 11:43:58 PM
I've checked the odds and to no surprise, AJ is a favourite:
AJ to win: 1.26
Francis to win: 3.85

So even know he's an underdog, according to bookies Ngannou is not without a chance, less than x4 pay out is not a massive one.

I think Francis will approach this fight with much more confidence than in the first fight with Fury, but I'm not sure if that will work in his favour or the opposite - if he gets relaxed too much, he could get punished.
He definitely looked more confident than AJ during the face off. I almost suspect Anthony acts like he's a bit afraid and withdrawn on purpose to get Francis to feel overconfident and make more mistakes.
Link to the face off: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbkuzGl-m60
528  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 15, 2024, 11:25:36 PM
Truth is that Everton have performed well this season and if not for financial fair play point deduction, the club side will be battling for an Europa league spot at this stage of the Campaignl

Even with those 10 points, they would currently be at 12th place in the league table, so pretty far from Europa League.
They have fairly good defence with only 28 goals lost, but they have no attacking power and that's their main problem. They need to take more risks and and aim for wins not draws. Their current position is not pretty, they have only 1 point advantage over Luton, but Luton have one less game played and they will be highly motivated to escape from the red zone.
Burnley and Sheffield are already doomed.
529  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 14, 2024, 11:51:39 PM
that Capoeira move was really hilarious while Johnny Walker was doing it, and for sure it was really stylistic in doing the moves but for damaging Ankalaev it was zero effect on him, so why do such thing,

It looked like he tried to copy his tactic from their first fight, but he overdid feints and Ankalaev started checking calf kicks, so Walker was out of ideas and decided to be at least entertaining and memorable.
That capoeira move had zero chances of landing, absolutely anyone could see it from a mile away. But at least it was funny.

I think Hill is still not available so Magomed Ankalaev's next opponent should be Alex Pereira, if Jamal Hill still is not available,

This would make a lot of sense sport-wise, but I doubt Pereira would be very excited about such a fight. If Pereira is going for the money, his best move would be to go back down to the middleweight and fight the winner of Strickland Vs DuPlessis, or fight Adesanya again (in the middleweight) if rumors of Adesanya wanting to come back are true.
530  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin ETF officially approved! on: January 14, 2024, 11:25:10 PM
According to a Reuters article[1] from today, $4.6 billion flowed into the already available Bitcoin ETFs funds on the first day. All the more strange that the price hardly moved upwards yesterday and even fell significantly today. It seems as if the speculators are acting according to the motto: buy the rumors, sell the news.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/spot-bitcoin-etfs-start-trading-big-boost-crypto-industry-2024-01-11/

Thanks for the link.
It's not like there was an inflow of $4.6 billion to the Bitcoin market in one day. If that was true, there was no way the price would not go sharply up. That amount is the total volume of all ETFs trades, with the Grayscale being the dominating one. Grayscale were approved to convert their existing bitcoin trust into an ETF, so they've already held bitcoins that are now tradeable as an ETF and it's not like any money spent on buying spot ETFs will directly create a demand for bitcoins. It's more nuanced than that.
531  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 14, 2024, 10:46:15 PM
Newcastle has really been declining this season. A four-game losing streak is never easy, and it does raise concerns, when they were a top four team last season. The threat of missing out on UEFA tournaments looms large, and even securing a spot in the Conference League might be a disappointing outcome for the team and its fans.

I wouldn't be too hard on them, at least not yet. They had a good performance against Sunderland in the 3rd round of the FA cup (won 3-0) and 2 of those 4 Premier League losses were to the top 2 teams, Liverpool and Man City and they were really close to earning 1 point against Man City.
Realistically speaking, comparing their budget against the other teams etc, they're performing in line with expectations.
532  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 14, 2024, 10:15:17 PM
Finally Ankalaev got a win. Finally his the black streak has ended and he is about to face either Pereira, or Hill. I liked the way second fight went. It showed that during first Walker was lucky it was an illegal knee. The inevitable happened - he still got KOed Cheesy

I wouldn't call that a black streak but more of a weird streak. Overall, that 'no contest' first fight against Walker turned to work fine for him after all. He got paid twice and got his win anyway.
Walker was quite entertaining, but he looked afraid of Ankalaev, like he was throwing all those stunt moves in an act of desperation, to keep Ankalaev away or something. It didn't look like a well-thought-through strategy.

Does anybody have any update on Hill? Has he fully recovered from whatever injury he had suffered? If so, he should be the one fighting Pereira next and Ankalaev could face a winner of Prohazka Vs Rakic, and whoever wins gets the next title shot.


Ankalaev Vs Walker 2 highlights (only 5 mins):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KXTWuxRLl4
533  Bitcoin / Press / [2024-01-10] Wired: Bitcoin ETFs Have Arrived. Here’s Who Stands to Get Rich on: January 12, 2024, 05:31:33 PM
Just one of the many main stream hits on the approval of spot ETFs.

Bitcoin ETFs Have Arrived. Here’s Who Stands to Get Rich

https://www.wired.com/story/spot-bitcoin-etfs-launch/

Quote
US regulators have approved a new breed of financial product that will give people a way to invest in bitcoin through their brokerage for the first time, as if it were a regular stock.

A selection of financial institutions, including household names like BlackRock and Fidelity, have been given permission by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), whose value tracks the price of bitcoin. The approval comes after a peculiar incident on January 9, in which a hijacker used the agency's X account to announce the ETFs prematurely, leading to market chaos and forcing the SEC to publish a retraction.

The arrival of the spot bitcoin ETFs has been celebrated among investors as a source of new demand for the asset—now available in a more accessible format—that could push up the price. Yet a significant portion of the financial upside will be captured behind the scenes, not in the open market.

The ETF issuers will take a management fee, as a percentage of the sum people invest. One layer deeper, though, another subset of companies—intermediaries that provide the plumbing necessary for a spot bitcoin ETF to function—stand to earn big. These firms are responsible for storing bitcoin on behalf of the issuers, as appointed custodians, or creating new ETF shares and cashing in existing ones, in the case of authorized participants, or APs. The job of another set of third parties, market makers, is to help price ETFs accurately and ensure that trades run smoothly in the public market.

The pool of firms that perform these trading-related functions is limited, says James Seyffart, ETF research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, partly because of the amount of cash required to deal with large quantities of assets flowing in and out the door. With respect to custody, the Venn diagram of willing and qualified candidates is restricted further by the challenges of handling bitcoin, which sits on entirely different technical rails than regular shares. “It’s a whole different area,” says Seyffart.

As such, the spot bitcoin ETF issuers will share a small group of service providers, at least at launch. Between them, crypto exchanges Coinbase and Gemini will provide custody services for practically all the new ETFs. Only JPMorgan, Cantor Fitzgerald, Virtu Financial, and Jane Street, all multinational financial services firms, have signed on as APs to date.
(...)
534  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: We dont own enough bitcoin on: January 12, 2024, 05:25:37 PM
Trying to balance Bitcoin, real estate and gold investments is fraught with challenges. If I can still try to keep Bitcoin regular with DCA, I also do gold based on financial conditions. Trying to add to real estate is still out of my reach.

One of the issues is a dilemma of whether to re-balance your portfolio, or just put a specified amount on a regular basis and just let it be. Re-balancing is probably a sensible option, you aim for your crypto-holdings to be no more than 20% of your portfolio, so if BTC shoots up and becomes more than that 20%, you sell the excess to put in other assets. But than many would ask themselves why sell their best-performing asset in favour of anything else.
As for real estate, just as with BTC, you don't have to buy a whole house or whole bitcoin. You could purchase property jointly with other people or just invest in REITs.
535  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin ETF officially approved! on: January 12, 2024, 05:12:14 PM
Approved is fine and dandy, but until we see some trading, we will not see the results of this approval (other than the speculative side, of course). So thats begs the question of when will the trading finally be unlocked?

Isn't it already "unlocked"? I think I've read somewhere that the Blacrock ETF is already available on some platforms or with some brokers.
The speculative side is already exhausted. If the price doesn't start climbing up shortly, we'll probably see a drop as all those who "bought the rumours to sell the news" will get a signal that there's no more to be earned and that it's time to sell.
We might be actually witnessing this already, as the price dropped to around $43.5k. Hopefully the demand for the ETFs can turn this around soon.
536  Economy / Economics / Re: 4 COMMON MISTAKES PEOPLE MADE WITH THEIR FINANCES IN THE PAST YEARS on: January 12, 2024, 05:05:47 PM
Basically what makes people become more burdened is because they are unable to meet their family's needs, so pessimistic thoughts will arise about doing anything. So before getting involved in many things such as investment, we should look at the position of the financial structure first and then look for patterns to get involved in investment. When our daily needs are met properly, when we invest, we don't have a burden, so we can focus more and not place risks in it.

That's the thing. It's easy to set up and maintain healthy financial habits if you have a nice surplus of your regular income over your expenses. But all the advice regarding emergency fund and investing is pointless when one does not earn enough to meet their needs.
That's why probably the most valuable advice, especially for younger people, is to "invest in yourself", i.e. get a set of marketable skills which will boost your income and make it way easier to manage your money or maybe even retire at relatively young age. Being on a low income your entire life can be a real nightmare.
537  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 12, 2024, 04:48:56 PM
Whether the stoppage in the first fight was caused by the doctor or because Walker put a joke in the wrong place, what is clear is that Walker has learned a lot from that first encounter. He should be able to know and study Ankalaev's fighting style to have a chance of winning. I see the first fight being Ankalaev's and if it continues it's possible that Walker will be beaten with a finish. I think Walker or at least his team knows that. The second fight became unpredictable because they already knew each other's weaknesses even though the first fight ended in a no contest.

That illegal knee was the best that happen to Walker in that fight. He was getting beat up by Ankalaev in those first few minutes and looked like he was about to get KOed or submitted. He did OK with all the feints and calf kicks, and that sneaky flying knee after faking damage from a body shot was quite funny - but all that wasn't good enough for Ankalaev and he must show up with a better plan.
But there's not much you can do when the other guy is equally good, if not better, in striking and better on the ground. Walker has to rely on luck. Bookies seem to agree.
538  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou - March 9 on: January 12, 2024, 04:31:09 PM
I think Fury could have gone into his fight with Ngannou unprepared, maybe he underestimated him. I think Joshua will win this fight comfortably. He has no choice but to stay 100%  focused in every pre fight training camp and be ready for every fight. If he loses many more his career is over.

According to Fury himself, the poor performance was not to underestimating Francis, but more due to the fact they had no material (footage of any Ngannou's boxing fights) to use to analyse Francis' style. Plus, I think he admitted that he was simply better than anyone expected, which is true.
Joshua is definitely in way more comfortable position in this regard. He knows what to expect and will not underestimate him. Then again, Francis and his team could surprise everyone again and present a completely different style than in the Fury fight.
I too favour Joshua to win, but it won't necessarily be a walk in the park.

Technically, no. You just have to be a top 15 ranked opponent to challenge for a belt and Ngannou is currently ranked 10th by the WBC so theoretically he could challenge for the title, which is crazy considering he's above Hrgovic, Joyce and Dubois.

How on earth is he ranked that high (or at all). He did do very well, but it was still a loss. Do they award ranking points for style etc?
539  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread on: January 11, 2024, 11:30:51 PM
But what about Poirier? What would be the benefits he could receive? Hooker, Turner or RDA looks more popular, much easier opponents.

All 3 mentioned are OK-ish fighters but no material for champions. Setting any of them up against Dustin would be pretty risky. If Dustin were to lose, his superstar status would be tarnished but none of those 3 could take his place as they're simply not good enough.
I've done my homework on Saint-Denis and the guy is the real deal + he's bringing in a lot of views from all MMA fans from France. Dustin is taking a big risk, but UFC can't keep sheltering their stars forever, they have to let some fresh blood in.

There is no way that Saint Denis is a favorite of the match. He has a good grappling but he is not that good to be a favorite. It's a low-risk money fight for Dustin Poirier, he also probably wants to get a title shot. Easy money and title shot, that's all.

Disagree. I could be misjudging him a bit by watching only highlights of his last fights, but BSD looks pretty sharp, is an all-round fighter, and is young and aggressive. The odds make sense to me.
540  Local / Polski / Re: Bitcoinowe fundusze ETF w Europie i USA on: January 11, 2024, 10:51:15 PM
czyli co sprzedać?Smiley  wiem -> ryzyko po mojej stronie:D czy trzymać. Kurcze czy to tak trudno zostać milionerem Smiley

Nie musisz reagować na każde wydarzenie rynkowe. Jeżeli nie masz planu jak to rozegrać konkretnie to lepiej trzymać spokojnie aż cena osiągnie zadawalający pułap.
Najgorsze jest podejmowanie decyzji w popłochu, pod wpływem strachu, czy innych emocji.
Teoria Janusza też zakłada że po korekcie będą dalsze wzrosty, więc nawet gdy jego przewidywania okażą się prawdziwe, to też nie będzie tragedii. Po prostu na pompę poczekamy nieco dłużej.
Osobiście uważam że popyt na owe ETFy może zneutralizować wyprzedaż spekulantów "sprzedających fakty", więc wolę nic nie robić.
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