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521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2021, 05:16:05 PM
...

"It's not precisely the same so it's completely different". And your "It's your fault for making us force you to take the vaccine" (implied by your 'you can always change your vaccine status' to avoid government persecution) is despicable from someone with your username. But that's not the first time.

Slippery Slope

Slippery slope is a fallacy in purely academic debate. Turns out it's actually manifestly observable in real life. It can be avoided, perhaps, but you have to take notice and turn things around. It's not a fallacy to call slippery slope when you're on a slope and slipping. A straw man, on the other hand, means you are failing to engage with your opponent's actual position which leads nowhere useful.

And people wonder how the Germans let it happen...

(Sorry Lightfoot, I was willing to let it drop but these are too egregious to let slide).

In purely academic debate is it?
During a global pandemic a country tries to increase vaccination rate of its citizens by stepping on some liberties, next they'll be gassing all non aryans?
A cop asks for my papers while i operate a vehicle, ergo Nazi state?

Now, I fall into a camp of vaccinated but feel uneasy about how govs are going about the vaccinations, but lets not fool ourselves, comparing that to Nazism is a text book example of a slippery slope. If you're still confused, any comparison to Hitler/Nazis short of mass extermination of a certain group of people, is a slippery slope argument.
522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 20, 2021, 05:14:30 AM
Straw. Man. Try harder.

Nope. I'm just curious how people now are behaving like Nazis. I have met some real Nazis, both in the US atomic bomb programs and from the ex-Vichy regime.

They were quite unlike people who wish to vaccinate people these days, you might call them.... chilling, if you had met them.



We've had vaccinations for more than two centuries. The issue is not with the 'vaccine' itself. Indeed, many of those having issues with what is going on are vaccinated themselves. So yes, strawman as independently called out by someone else too.

Since we're calling out logical fallacies,
Quote
Slippery Slope
In a slippery slope argument, a course of action is rejected because, with little or no evidence, one insists that it will lead to a chain reaction resulting in an undesirable end or ends. The slippery slope involves an acceptance of a succession of events without direct evidence that this course of events will happen.
https://www.txstate.edu/philosophy/resources/fallacy-definitions/Slippery-Slope.html
523  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2021, 05:49:58 PM

"Faketoshi trial day 7 notes...


Has any court ever asked him how he managed to "sign" a message for Gavin from the fourth block's address, but now says he doesn't have the key as it's "held" by a bonded courier?


But why would they? The argument between both sides in this circus is whether Faketoshi is 100% Satoshi or 50% Satoshi. Both sides would gladly attribute 22M BTC to Faketoshi if they could.

BSv's law firm already opened up their cards and showed why they need this 50% or 100% judgement in their formal letters before action sent to all of the devs:  
Quote
10. In accordance with their fiduciary duties, each of the Developers is obliged to:
 a. Provide access and control to TTL of the BTC in the Addresses, which it owns
but cannot access or control due to the hack/theft.
 b. Take all reasonable steps to ensure that TTL has access to and control of the
BTC in the Addresses.
 c. Take all reasonable steps to ensure that effect is not given to the fraud, by
ensuring that the BTC in the Addresses cannot be dealt with by anyone other
than TTL (including those who have misappropriated the private keys or
otherwise wrongly have access to the private keys).
https://www.ontier.net/ia/a1letter-before-action-from-ttl.pdf

If you still have any doubts, here's the statement directly from Faketoshi:

https://twitter.com/MyLegacyKit/status/1457437100631105536


I found it helpful to stop using my logic while trying to analyze this case, (like why would you even need a supercomputer to mine on a testnet???) and just realize that the true answer to everything in this case is



this threats are most likely the reason why some developers already stopped working on bitcoin. future bitcoin devs must contribute their work completely anonymously.

and he wants to sue bitcoin nodes too? I can't wait to get mail from faketoshi's lawyers.

edit: can we just burn satoshis bitcoin? can someone make a BIP? Smiley

Yep i've been preaching for devs to go anonymous for a while. Every aspect of BTC will be tested over and over again. Every link in the chain will be hit many times in an attempt to find the weakest one. You have to be delusional to think that you can work on a new global monetary system in the open without any repercussions. Is there any example in history where people in power welcomed attempts to change the status quo? There's a reason why original dev stayed anonymous, all other devs should follow in those footsteps.

Faketoshi, he's largely irrelevant. If it wasn't him it would've been someone else. If anything, his stories are entertaining more than anything else, it could've been (will be?) worse if there was a more competent person attacking. Bitcoin doesn't fit in the current legal framework, how each country adopts it, was always to be decided at the highest levels, and not in some local kangaroo court.

As far as burning Satoshi's coins, the topic is highly controversial, as such it'll most definitely cause a fork. It's best to leave such things in incompetent hands of Faketoshi. Let him fork the chain once again unlocking Satoshis coins to himself. That should be his last battle after which he'll become a footnote in bitcoins history.
524  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2021, 06:16:10 AM

"Faketoshi trial day 7 notes...


Has any court ever asked him how he managed to "sign" a message for Gavin from the fourth block's address, but now says he doesn't have the key as it's "held" by a bonded courier?


But why would they? The argument between both sides in this circus is whether Faketoshi is 100% Satoshi or 50% Satoshi. Both sides would gladly attribute 22M BTC to Faketoshi if they could.

BSv's law firm already opened up their cards and showed why they need this 50% or 100% judgement in their formal letters before action sent to all of the devs: 
Quote
10. In accordance with their fiduciary duties, each of the Developers is obliged to:
 a. Provide access and control to TTL of the BTC in the Addresses, which it owns
but cannot access or control due to the hack/theft.
 b. Take all reasonable steps to ensure that TTL has access to and control of the
BTC in the Addresses.
 c. Take all reasonable steps to ensure that effect is not given to the fraud, by
ensuring that the BTC in the Addresses cannot be dealt with by anyone other
than TTL (including those who have misappropriated the private keys or
otherwise wrongly have access to the private keys).
https://www.ontier.net/ia/a1letter-before-action-from-ttl.pdf

If you still have any doubts, here's the statement directly from Faketoshi:

https://twitter.com/MyLegacyKit/status/1457437100631105536


I found it helpful to stop using my logic while trying to analyze this case, (like why would you even need a supercomputer to mine on a testnet???) and just realize that the true answer to everything in this case is

525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will not be able to stay above $30k for 10 consecutive days ever aga on: November 08, 2021, 09:30:16 PM

if so, at least and give us the rationale, for example with some fundamental analysis or some techniques how to read Bitcoin price movements for the next 10 days. As a small trader I am very enthusiastic to listen to your discussion, not just mere speculation and leaving many questions.

Thankfully, Taleb put all the maths, science, and research into an easy to read 6 page, irrefutable paper. Bitcoin is worth $0. The knowledge of that fact is simply taking a long time to sink in because there's so much fake news about bitcoin and scammers. Of course, it's now apparent that more and more of the market is catching on, which is how I know for certain that bitcoin will not be able to stay above $30k for 10 consecutive days ever again. Every year from here out will see lower and lower bitcoin prices until it reaches it's mathematically proven value of $0.

526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2021, 05:25:58 AM
The next 24hrs are critical!
527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2021, 12:41:45 AM

Looks like a bear took a smoke break
528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 05, 2021, 05:53:43 AM
So, CSW taking the stand today in Florida.

What's the over/under on him being charged with contempt within the first two hours of him being on the stand?

*sigh*

My hope for that sort of thing is fairly low.  I feel like hes going to get away with very little bad happening to him at all.

Perhaps I am just projecting my fears.

I will be VERY happy to have been wrong.

I think he's playing with fire. All it takes is pissing off a judge once. Then it's all downhill from there.

What I hope is the judge is able to see what the meta game is he's trying to play.  He has made it very clear online.  

It's all part of a long con.  But there are several sub cons going on at the same time.  

Here is what I see as the big story arc:

1. Establish via the court systems that he is SN.
2. Use the courts to try to force the Bitcoin devs to give him control over a list of blocks he claims to own without having to use the private keys.

The courts have been fairly clear that they are not trying to decide whether he is Satoshi or not, I think.  But one possible thing is they could claim he owes billions of dollars worth of BTC to the plaintifs.  And if so I think the plan is to say he's lost the keys to those blocks and the only way he can get the money to pay the plaintif is if the court orders the BTC devs to basically code his access into Bitcoin Core.

That is a thumbnail of the long con.  And it is entirely ridiculous.  BUT the only thing that scares me is BTC has BIG enemies at the nation state level.  Depending on how corrupted our world is, I could imagine a scenario in which the courts were told to do it.  The is far fetched and nearly impossible to imagine.

The lesser con is to convince his faithful of the above plan.  That is what the BSV people are believing is the way at this point.  LAW is going to grant him the access to those blocks, and he is going to crash BTC and buy all the BSV with it and usher in his kingdom.  And they will dump all their BSV that they have collected up over time (?) on them.  Another angle here is they fail to get any traction on their plan to rewrite the BTC client to give him millions of coins, but they have well prepared the failthful to allow him to take those blocks on BSV.  So I think that's the last level fallback.  (Obviously legal claims on BCH will also be made, and probably fare as badly as they will on BTC)

Or perhaps Calvin Ayre is the anti-christ, and CSW is his prophet.  And BSV is the mark of the beast.  A panopticon  of evil.

You think I am joking with that last part... but there are people who believe this line as well, and I think CSW has played into the image with all the red socks etc...   The anti-christ is indeed called "the father of lies".  It kinda fits.

I seriously hope the courts crush him, and we can really start to put this chapter fully in the rear view.



Once he gets the judgement saying he owns either 50% or 100% of unchallenged addresses he pulled from his ass, the way i see it play out is:
1-He forks BSv, unlocks all of the coins. In order to build up his Faketoshi goodwill, right away he burns most of them and donates remainder to lost puppies and overweight children.
2-He starts suing everyone he can, anyone who ever did a git commit for Bitcoin to force them to unlock the BTC coins for him.
3-Obviosuly that won't get any traction, after he administers maximum amount of pain on the devs, he'll then try to fork BTC himself. Claiming that after the fork, anyone that'll continue to use "legally non compliant" chain will be a criminal and promise to sue every single person.
4-Send multiple preemptive lawsuits to the biggest players he can think of (Visa/Google/Amazon whatever gets him the most attention)
5-Despite no one following his fork, he slithers into oblivion a filthy rich man, because they front ran/shorted before his every grand announcement.

or at least that's how i'd play it out

  
529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 04, 2021, 04:08:41 PM
So, CSW taking the stand today in Florida.

What's the over/under on him being charged with contempt within the first two hours of him being on the stand?

*sigh*

My hope for that sort of thing is fairly low.  I feel like hes going to get away with very little bad happening to him at all.

Perhaps I am just projecting my fears.

I will be VERY happy to have been wrong.

I think he's playing with fire. All it takes is pissing off a judge once. Then it's all downhill from there.

Nah his lawyers covered that angle by playing the retard card. Now he can get away with anything he says, by claiming it on his autism.
530  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! on: November 04, 2021, 03:16:38 AM
Digital Currency Group, the parent company of Grayscale, is recruiting a team of financial advisors for the asset management division. According to The Block, the new business direction will be focused on cryptomillionaires, that is, those who, for example, with $150,000 managed to earn $2 million and simply do not know what to do with them next. DCG will work with the world's leading cryptocurrency blockchains and entrepreneurs and investors DeFi

Now that the GBTC days, as a 200 basis points yearly revenue are numbered, DCG is seeking new revenue flows to stay afloat.
I have doubts about their strategy, but probably they made careful planning of this move.


Why do you say their 200bps days are numbered? Do you expect US to approve their application to convert GBTC into spot ETF? At current -14% discount to NAV market doesn't seem to think that it'll happen anytime soon. If market values GBTC shares at 14% discount to NAV now, wondering if hype of spot ETF will be enough to offset the redemption rate once people can exit the $28BB fund at NAV
531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 03, 2021, 07:48:03 PM
Haha where you moon boys at? NGD Technology doing what it does yo.
Confirmed by math and science.

Might short this ponzi into oblivion.

Eeeeuhm where we at

Somewhere on our way to a 100k and into …………..

Okay moonboi



It's like good ol' times, even Lamby is back
532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 07, 2021, 01:09:26 AM
No more tres comas, now we're into "cuatro comas"™!

Will need an updated image


533  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 04, 2021, 05:56:59 PM
Whatsapp, Instagram and Facebook services down right now.

Bitcoin never went down in past 12 years.

Ahh the beauty of centralization, would be interesting to see the effects of Visa going down for few hrs.
534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 04, 2021, 05:48:21 PM
if we all can agree that air pollution is already an issue at many local levels, how can anyone argue that it has no effect on the global level?

Because it is local, not global. One just doesn't follow on from the other. The world's an awfully big place.

The problem with "trust the science" is that so many think this flaky deductive reasoning is science.

Only it does, atmosphere doesn't follow city borders, and local air pollutants don't stay local. The fact that the world is an awfully big place, only leaves the extent of the effects debatable, but in no way does it rule it out. The question becomes what are the side effects at each level of pollution. And finally, the cost/benefits analysis, personal risk tolerances, who benefit vs. who suffer etc etc etc... come into play. Saying that the city/state/country next to yours can fuck up their air pollution as much as they want without it having any effect on you is borderline delusional.


 
535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 04, 2021, 03:27:47 PM


Pretty sure everyone (everyone sane?) will agree that we (humans) already managed to fuck up environment at the city levels in many locations around the globe (possibly country levels, fancy a health retreat in Bangladesh?). Yet even the thought, that combined effect of all those fucked up cities could have some not so positive effects on a global scale, is completely incomprehensible and alien to them.

Dude, I don't want to get in the middle of this discussion but you need to keep straight the differences between global and local and warming and pollution.

My argument was about the overall air pollution from the start (CO2 is a subset). Then i just took it to its logical conclusion, if we all can agree that air pollution is already an issue at many local levels, how can anyone argue that it has no effect on the global level? The levels of that effect can of course be argued. If we know that we already fucked up environments on many city levels, saying that everything is fine, that's just nature, so we should continue doing what we are doing just sounds retarded.

536  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 03, 2021, 11:57:55 PM
Pretty sure everyone (everyone sane?)

... because only insane people could think that the government got it wrong, again and again and again?

... typical ad-hominem in the question tactic, "only sane people ...." you only resort to that kind of rhetoric because your arguments are weak or wrong and not supported by data

Typical straw man, about the govermentz. Yeah i stand by it, at this stage it takes someone reallllly "special" to deny effects of pollution in some of the most polluted cities in India and China. Then i did a "slippery slope" argument, *hint, that's the one that's easiest to attack
537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 03, 2021, 11:23:55 PM


Pretty sure everyone (everyone sane?) will agree that we (humans) already managed to fuck up environment at the city levels in many locations around the globe (possibly country levels, fancy a health retreat in Bangladesh?). Yet even the thought, that combined effect of all those fucked up cities could have some not so positive effects on a global scale, is completely incomprehensible and alien to them.
538  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 03, 2021, 08:07:53 PM
Can’t believe so many of you buy the CO2 theory nonsense..

Bitcoin is not for everyone..
It’s only for people who are smart enough to start using it, and then for the subset of those who are smart enough to not lose them in the myriad of different ways possible to lose your coins from just losing your keys to being scammed or leaving them in another’s custody to be scammed..
Not to mention those smart enough to figure out how to make some coin, or smart enough to have extra funds for investment to put into coin, and then smart enough to delay gratitude not to sell out..
If they were smart enough to take their time to understand it well enough to believe in it.. Smart enough to understand enough about it in the first place..

Crypto is not even close to “for everyone”..

Equal opportunity? Yes..
Equal outcome? Ha ha ha.. No..

It is not so much the c02 concept

Take a pleasant place say one of the Hawaiian Islands cut down everything and plant pineapples and nothing else.

What will happen? you will fuck that Island up.

If you do not think that is happening around the world as I type and that it is sunspot activity fine.

Then save the coil oil and gas for the next ice age and jack up the solar while the sunspots heat up.  

The if you are correct and an ice age comes in 30 years you have the coal ,oil ,gas saved up. Especially the coal as the miners can mine and stack it for the ice age.

So if co2 is real you win

and if sunspot followed by cool down is right you win




Never in earths history has the climate/temperature just stayed the same.. It’s most likely that earth is just doing it’s thing as usual and we are powerless to stop it or change it..

We should NOT worry about and absolutely not let the fucking governments do anything whatsoever because of it..

It’s just an authoritarians excuse to control more shit and shuffle more money into the hands of their friends, not to mention bother excuse to keep the little guy down by increasing the cost of our energy and making us spend tons of money on CO2 reduction bullshit (that gets funneled to their friends pockets)...





I know right, caveman had those smog cities and toxic lakes in inner Mongolia back in the day too! What a nice place for a fishing trip, or perhaps a family vacation for kids to go swimming in the water? If you know for a fact that we shouldn't worry about it now, then care to share how bad should the man-made smog get before we should start getting worried? Throw some ppms or cancer rates or something at which you wouldn't advice your kids to play outside?


Cheap energy that you can actually taste. Like everywhere, just by breathing.
Think those Russians found the answer to the long life longevity, burn baby burn. Fuck the government for telling me what color my snow should be
539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 03, 2021, 06:30:03 PM
Is this the effect of the Pandora papers with money floating into BTC?
540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 30, 2021, 02:48:01 PM
Anybody like to share their thoughts on the current market, price action?

It looks weak AF to me. I mean, I think everything is OK & we should rally in Q4 but we really need to start moving up soon. Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.


Quote from: Google Translate
The state company Chivo negotiated with the largest gas station companies in our country, so that starting tomorrow, their stations will sell each gallon of fuel $ 0.20 cheaper, with @chivowallet
https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1443410462129983490

I got many questions on this (like why isn't the discount for payments in BTC only, and why Chivo app and not any lightning wallet etc...) but conceptually this is what it's all about. Sure you can continue paying with your credit card for "free" or get savings for transaction fees passed back to you if you pay with lightning. Market cap of credit card companies is (was?) $1T oops...

Let me provide discount on every global transaction and I care not who writes the laws (or BTC's current price action)
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