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601  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Will Russia Emerge As The Next Dominant Superpower on: October 13, 2022, 11:34:22 PM
Given that russia has been under threat from SWIFT sanctions. Part and component sanctions for many years. I'm surprised they haven't been able to do more to kickstart their own native and domestic sources of manufacturing and supply.

The one area russia has done well is in agriculture and food production. Russia has steadily produced higher quantities of food everywhere to alleviate economic stress from food imports being banned into the country. I assumed russia would do the same with its technology and manufacturing sectors. But it seems that they have suffered a steady string of defeat there.

While russia has been able to produce impressive technology in their fighter jets, helicopters, hypersonic missiles and missile interception systems. They have not been able to produce those items in any real quantity. It appears that they also lack many fundamental things necessary to having a basic war effort. Such as some sources claiming russian soldiers lack radio encryption. Can you imagine a modern military lacking radio encryption in the year 2022. In an era where many firefighters, police and law enforcement have radio encryption as a standard measure.
602  Economy / Economics / Agriculture HODL on: October 13, 2022, 11:21:24 PM
If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

Similar to being an early investor in bitcoin. Getting in early on agriculture HODL could be a good investment.

Shopping in a supermarket we can see that almond nuts can sell for $10 a pound. When I see this, I wonder to myself how much time and energy would it take to grow 10,000 pounds of almonds to profit a cool $100,000. Does rain, sunshine and the tree do all of the work? If food shortages hit the price of almonds and other food assets could rise dramatically. Instead of $10 a pound. We might see $15 or $20. Profit margins could swell significantly due to circumstantial conditions. As we have seen with other markets posting record profits correlated with price inflation.

Depending on which zone we're located in and the climate. It may also become possible to produce niche luxury crops.

Rising cost of oil could greatly restrict foreign exports. Which could produce a high and growing demand for locally produced alternatives. Which would stack on top of existing favorable market conditions.

It is possible that there is someone in the world who will begin farming this year. Grow and sell a harvest. To produce more next year. Who will possibly become a millionaire through the process. Rising cost of oil and difficulty associated with shipping food products from overseas could all contribute to making it possible.

Anyways what do people think about this. Share your wisdom please.
603  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin mining leads to cheaper energy, and also cheaper computation on: October 13, 2022, 11:12:57 PM
I think industrial crypto mining operations utilizing GPU's, are similar to an IT datacenter. We have seen in past years where surplus datacenter computation was dedicated to mining bitcoin. And the opposite was also true. Mining ops that were no longer profitable after rewards halving were converted into IT datacenters. Nations like iceland used local cold weather in an effort to save on server costs. This opened the door to crypto mining ops and datacenters industries flocking to their country.

In addition to this, rising demand on GPUs fueled by crypto mining likely incentivized AMD, nvidia and others to produce in higher volumes to keep GPUs affordable for gamer markets. Which could have in turn provided semiconductor manufacturers with greater profits and revenue to expand their existing operations.

The same positive precedents might also apply to ASICs even though they're optimized more for pure cryptographic operation rather than FLOPs.

But yes I think it is fair to say that bitcoin mining did incentivize the expansion of semiconductor production and distribution throughout the world. Which is something we can all be thankful for.
604  Economy / Economics / Re: Global recession alarm, safe money on: October 13, 2022, 11:03:28 PM
Coping with recession and economic downtrend will be more difficult for those who reside in cities, than it will be for rural more sparsely populated regions.

Access to greater living and storage space is a commodity which can be leveraged to elevate standard of living in a crisis scenario. Due to this we could see a mass migration from cities to the country. A greater migration to off grid living and organic farms. City regulation cracking down on homeless populations could accelerate the trend. Although to be fair we have also seen regulation imposed against collecting rain water and independent farms. Perhaps the regulatory maluses will be spread evenly across the board. But even if this is the case, I think having access to more living space to grow food and have greater options is still a commodity over not being able to even keep pets in a city.

Next comes asset options in terms of inflation and recession protection. Feasibility of storage. Ease of use. Market and merchant support. Insurance. Protection against theft. And so on. An emphasis on assets which help to alleviate rising full and transportation costs as well as food costs could be made. The value of diesel engines and diesel powered vehicles could rise due to their flex fuel capability. Diesel vehicles can run on vegetable oil and biodiesel. A farmer with access to crops that can be refined into one or the other could potentially provide for all of their fuel needs.

Food options could also be a concern. While money may not grow on trees. Food certainly does. And perhaps that is something people will make an effort to leverage more in the future. If indeed food shortages and inflation become harsh realities.
605  Other / Off-topic / Re: WHAT YOU DON'T HAVE, YOU DON'T NEED. on: October 13, 2022, 10:35:32 PM
I came around a post that reminded me of this very topic "WHAT YOU DON'T HAVE, YOU DON'T NEED and this very phrase was instilled long ago in me when I was still in school


Minimalist ideology has been around far longer than most realize.

Quote
"The root of suffering is attachment." (to material possessions)

-Buddha


"Minimalism does not imply not owning things. Only that things, do not own you."

It may seem counter intuitive. But some of the happiest children I've seen were the ones living in poverty with few worldly possessions. While by contrast some of the more miserable children I've seen were ones with a wealth of material abundance.

At some level an overabundance of worldly possessions could cause us to forget what is important in life. While the opposite may also be true.

606  Other / Politics & Society / Re: During the morning missile attack on Ukraine, the Russians hit Samsung Offices on: October 13, 2022, 06:44:50 PM
https://mronline.org/2022/10/13/u-s-rejection-of-moscows-offer-for-peace-talks-is-utterly-inexcusable/
"These two points taken together lend even more credibility an argument I’ve been making from the very beginning of this war: that the U.S. does not want peace in Ukraine, but rather seeks to create a costly military quagmire for Moscow just as U.S. officials have confessed to trying to do in Afghanistan and in Syria. Which would explain why U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the U.S. goal in Ukraine is actually to “weaken” Russia, and also why the empire appears to have actively torpedoed a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia in the early days of the conflict."



What do they mean when they say their goal is to weaken russia?

I interpret that as meaning their intent is for russian shortages of replacement parts and vital components to be exhausted.

Due to sanctions russia has a limited supply of components to repair destroyed military hardware. As well as construct new units to replace old ones.

If that is true. Is it really a large leap in logic to say that this conflict will eventually focus upon that aspect of supply & logicstics.

As it has done so for a period of years now.
607  Economy / Economics / Uber Doordash plunge after regulation proposal change to worker classification on: October 12, 2022, 11:54:37 PM
Quote

  • The Biden Labor Department released a proposal Tuesday that could make it possible for gig workers to be reclassified as employees, rather than contractors.
  • The proposed rule sent stocks of gig companies like DoorDash, Lyft and Uber down.
  • It comes after a court reinstated a Trump-era rule Biden’s Labor Department tried to block that would have made it easier to classify gig workers as contractors.


The Biden Labor Department released a proposal Tuesday that could pave the way for regulators and courts to reclassify gig workers as employees rather than independent contractors.

The proposed rule, if adopted, could raise costs for companies like Lyft, Uber, Instacart and DoorDash that rely on contract workers to pick up shifts on their own schedules. Shares of Lyft fell 12% on Tuesday, while Uber dropped 10.4% and DoorDash shed 6%.

The companies have argued that flexible schedules are attractive to workers, pointing to surveys showing the popularity of the model, which they say is made possible by the use of independent contractor status. Some labor experts and activists have disagreed, however, saying the companies use the contractor model to reduce their own costs while denying workers important protections such as health-care benefits, overtime pay and the ability to organize into unions.

In 2020, a California law went into effect requiring many companies to reclassify contract workers as employees, but later that year, voters approved a proposition that exempted app-based ride-hailing and delivery companies from the law.

Last year, the Biden administration rescinded a rule created under Trump’s Labor Department that would have made it easier for gig companies to classify workers as independent contractors instead of employees. But after a legal challenge, a court reinstated the Trump-era rule.

Biden’s Labor Department said in its notice in the Federal Register that it had considered waiting longer to see how the Trump-era rule played out. But it decided to move ahead with the proposed regulation instead because it believes keeping the earlier rule in place “would have a confusing and disruptive effect on workers and businesses alike due to its departure from case law describing and applying the multifactor economic reality test as a totality-of-the-circumstances test.”

The proposed rule would allow the determination of whether to classify a worker as a contractor or employee to rely on a more holistic assessment, including whether the work is an “integral” part of the employer’s business. The goal is to protect workers from being classified improperly while providing consistency for businesses that wish to employ independent contractors, the agency wrote.

The new proposed rule will still need to make its way through the formal regulatory process, including allowing time for the public to submit comments, before it is adopted.

Uber’s head of federal affairs, CR Wooters, said in a statement that the proposed rule “takes a measured approach, essentially returning us to the Obama era, during which our industry grew exponentially. In a time of deep economic uncertainty, it’s crucial that the Biden administration continues to hear from the more than 50 million people who have found an earning opportunity with companies like ours.”

In a blog post Tuesday, Lyft wrote that there “is no immediate or direct impact on the Lyft business at this time,” noting the 45-day public comment period. It added that the rule “Does not reclassify Lyft drivers as employees,” and also doesn’t force it to change its business model. Lyft said the rule simply reverts the standard to that used under the Obama administration, which previously applied to its company “and did not result in reclassification of drivers.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/uber-doordash-plunge-as-labor-dept-proposes-gig-worker-change.html


....


The dispute here is uber, doordash, uber eats and similar platforms. May have to provide health insurance and benefits to everyone who drives for them, if this regulation is implemented.

Given the enormous cost of health insurance in the united states, the regulatory shift could make business models of those enterprises unsustainable.

A better compromise could be for businesses to provide independent contractors with plane tickets and funds to receive healthcare in mexico.

Many americans already travel to south american nations to receive dentistry or healthcare due to the greatly reduced cost.

If healthcare in the united states cannot be reformed properly, delegating the role to other nations who can provide quality care at reduced cost would seem to be a natural progression.
608  Economy / Economics / Court win for worker fired for not keeping webcam on on: October 12, 2022, 11:42:44 PM
Quote
A telemarketer who was fired after refusing to keep his webcam on while working had his rights breached, a Dutch court has ruled.

The employee of US-based IT company Chetu was awarded approximately 75,000 euro (£65,700) by the court.

In August, the man, in the Netherlands, was told to share his screen and leave his camera on while working.

After he declined, he was fired for "refusal to work" and "insubordination".

Chetu did not provide a statement to the court, nor did the company appear at the court hearing, the judgement says.

The court ruled on the case in September, but its findings were published this month and reported by the Netherlands Times.

The BBC has approached Florida-based Chetu, which has a branch in the Netherlands, for comment.

Increased monitoring

Earlier this year, the TUC, which represents unions in England and Wales, warned use of workplace surveillance tech - including the use of AI to monitor workers - had taken off during the pandemic and was "spiralling out of control".

Methods included monitoring emails and files, webcams on work computers, tracking when and how much a worker is typing, calls made and movements made by the worker, through use of CCTV and trackable devices.

It called for stronger regulation to protect workers.

Max Winthrop, a partner at law firm Sintons LLP, said surveillance of employees had increased massively as the necessary tech became more accessible and as employers sought to keep tabs on employees working from home.

But he said there was not a simple answer to whether any particular monitoring infringed on an employee's privacy in the UK.

"It depends. A legitimate reason to monitor, such as the prevention of theft, or physical harm to employees, is likely to be considered favourably by a court or tribunal," said Mr Winthrop, a member of the Law Society's Employment Law Committee.

"Merely imposing an intrusive monitoring regime for no good reason, especially if monitoring takes place in areas or the workspace where employees could have a reasonable expectation of privacy, is not".

'I don't feel comfortable'

The employee in the case in the Netherlands had been working for Chetu since 2019, when in August he was asked to participate in a "Corrective Action Program ("CAP") - Virtual Classroom" during which his webcam was to be kept on.

According to the court record the employee refused, saying: "I don't feel comfortable being monitored for nine hours a day by a camera. This is an invasion of my privacy and makes me feel really uncomfortable. That is the reason why my camera is not on. You can already monitor all activities on my laptop and I am sharing my screen."

In response to the employee's objections, Chetu argued that this was no different from an employee being observed in an office environment.

But the court disagreed, citing a European Court of Human Rights ruling which, it said, stated that, "video surveillance of an employee in the workplace, be it covert or not, must be considered as a considerable intrusion into the employee's private life".

The court found that the there was no sufficient justification for the monitoring by Chetu, and it had therefore violated the employee's privacy rights.



https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-63203945


....


Interesting:

Quote
In response to the employee's objections, Chetu argued that this was no different from an employee being observed in an office environment.

But the court disagreed, citing a European Court of Human Rights ruling which, it said, stated that, "video surveillance of an employee in the workplace, be it covert or not, must be considered as a considerable intrusion into the employee's private life".

So it seems europeans have laws against intrusion on personal privacy, which are currently being upheld in court.

Could this turn into a landmark court case defining the future precedence for similar legal action in the future.

Or will it be overturned as Roe vs Wade recently was by the US supreme court.

Remote work appears to be a quickly growing market. And preferred standard of working by many. Countries like spain and portugal are currently rolling out support catering to digital nomads who earn revenue working from home on the internet.

On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the recent gamestop legal case which imposed fines for investment firms not doing enough to monitor employee actions.

At a certain point these two trends will definitely clash. And who knows what the outcome of it might be.
609  Economy / Economics / Re: Central authority can be biased. Referring to TikTok on: October 12, 2022, 11:28:40 PM
Incidents like these illustrate the need for a politically agnostic unit of exchange like bitcoin. Which doesn't allow for platforms to divert funds. Or for political parties to inject themselves into revenue streams as middle men.

The fees listed do not include taxes. Which they might not afford to pay with what tiktok left them.

Segments of islam claim usury in banking industries and finance go against their religion. Syria being a muslim dominated portion of the world. I wonder how they reconcile events like these with their faith.

It is possible that bitcoin is closest to the ideal standard for muslims. It is designed to prevent usury and ideology which deviate from their faith.

Mass adoption for crypto appear to have stalled in the middle east. Possibly due to lack of cellphone and payment support. But considering crypto has done ok for itself in africa. Perhaps it is only a matter of time.
610  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 12 years ago this man was accused to be Satoshi on: October 12, 2022, 11:02:45 PM
I still have David Kleiman as the #1 Satoshi candidate.

He is the only candidate considered a world class security expert. Which would have been necessary to adopt elliptic curve signatures over other encryption standards which were later found to be compromised.

Kleiman unfortunately passed away in 2013. Which would explain everything about Satoshi's absence. And the inability of other Satoshi candidates to provide private keys for early BTC mined by Satoshi.

Nick Szabo could be the #2 Satoshi candidate. But I think he lacks the technical and programming skills to create something like bitcoin. He lacks the engineering and security credentials.
611  Economy / Economics / In SEC Lawsuit, Grayscale Calls Spot ETF Rejection Discriminatory on: October 12, 2022, 10:43:44 PM
Quote
Grayscale Investments called the the U S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) June decision to reject its application to convert its flagship Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF) “arbitrary, capricious, and discriminatory" in an opening legal brief filed as part of its lawsuit against the regulator.

Grayscale filed suit against the SEC on June 29th, asking the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to review the regulator’s decision, which the SEC has published earlier in the day.

Grayscale is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, the parent company of CoinDesk.

Grayscale is far from the only company whose spot bitcoin ETF application has been rejected – over the last year, the SEC has denied over a dozen similar applications from other major players in the crypto space, including WisdomTree and Ark21Shares, citing a lack of investor protections and the potential for fraud and manipulation.

WisdomTree's latest application was rejected the same day Grayscale filed its brief.

While the agency has repeatedly rejected bitcoin spot ETF applications, it has approved several bitcoin futures ETFs, making a distinction between the offerings that Grayscale’s lawyers say is “arbitrary” and “outside the Commission’s authority.”

In the brief, the attorneys argue that, because Bitcoin futures and spot Bitcoin both generate their price based on overlapping indices, the spot price of Bitcoin in both spot and futures ETFs are subject to the same risks – and therefore, approving one and denying another is unfair.

“The Administrative Procedure Act and Exchange Act require rules and regulations to be applied without favoritism for one type of product or another,” said Craig Salm, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, in a press statement.

The SEC’s response is due Nov. 9.


https://www.yahoo.com/video/sec-lawsuit-grayscale-calls-spot-001120838.html


....


So it seems Grayscale's lawsuit against the SEC refusing to greenlight crypto based ETFs, in the united states, is progressing.

The following is a summary of Grayscale's legal claims:

Quote
In the brief, the attorneys argue that, because Bitcoin futures and spot Bitcoin both generate their price based on overlapping indices, the spot price of Bitcoin in both spot and futures ETFs are subject to the same risks – and therefore, approving one and denying another is unfair.

The SEC has been more active in 2022 than I remember them being throughout their entire history. Aside from Bernie Madoff I don't remember the SEC cracking down much on wallstreet. Someone refresh my memory. What are some of the classic SEC keynote investigations I'm forgetting?
612  Other / Politics & Society / Re: During the morning missile attack on Ukraine, the Russians hit Samsung Offices on: October 12, 2022, 03:17:04 AM
Judging by the shape of the striking elements, a Ukrainian Buk anti-aircraft missile fell near the Samsung office in Kyiv. Do not build a conspiracy theory where there is operator error or the poor quality of an old Soviet guided anti-aircraft missile.


Its not a conspiracy theory, other better sources I saw seemed to agree with basic claims made in OP:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/samsungs-ukraine-headquarters-damaged-by-russian-missile-strike/ar-AA12PZ3Z

I don't know whether or not the missile landing in close proximity to the samsung building was an accident or intentional.

Can you think of a good scenario where a missile interceptor lands directly on top of the real estate it is supposed to defend?

Does it fit the profile of systems like iron dome in terms of impact and collateral damage.

From photos of the building covered in smoke, it does look a little like building may have been hit.

Samsung was also a target of at least one electronic hacking attack in 2022.

Quote

My interest in this is finding a motive to keep european and american economies strong.

We need both regions to be strong to keep russia in check.

Its not a conspiracy theory, last I checked its a fact.



The New York Times disagrees with you. They say that the Russians fired more than a hundred rockets, and killed only 19 people, which means they have poor quality rockets. Grin



There are some weird things about these strikes.

You know what I mean, right.
613  Economy / Economics / New ETF Plans To Make Opposite Trades Of Jim Cramer's Recommendations on: October 11, 2022, 11:59:10 PM
Quote
New ETF plans to provide the inverse performance of investments recommended by CNBC’s Cramer.

Tuttle Capital Management — which previously launched an exchange-traded fund betting against Cathie Wood’s stock picks — plans to debut the Inverse Cramer ETF with the ticker SJIM, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday. If approved, the fund would provide investment results that are approximately the opposite of Cramer’s investment recommendations.

The host of Mad Money on CNBC is an outspoken and polarizing figure in the finance world, known for his ardent endorsements of various stocks, with mixed results. In 2021, he praised Ark Investment Management’s Wood just before her flagship fund plummeted, and he also famously tweeted to buy AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. just prior to a 30% plunge.

“Jim’s mission has always been to encourage long-term investing and a balanced portfolio that includes index funds and individual stocks,” a CNBC spokesperson wrote in an email to Bloomberg News. “He regards Mad Money as his classroom and believes educating those who want to pick individual stocks through insight and experience is the best way to help them take control of their finances.”

The Inverse Cramer ETF would be actively managed, meaning financial professionals behind the scenes would monitor Cramer’s stock selections and overall market recommendations through Twitter or his television appearances, according to the filing. Fund managers would then sell those stocks short or use derivatives to produce a negative correlation to his recommendations.

If Cramer said he was negative on a stock or ETF, the fund managers would take a long position.

Tuttle’s anti-Wood ETF, known by the ticker SARK, is up almost 90% since its launch in November 2021 and has attracted more than $350 million in assets. Tuttle was acquired by AXS Investments earlier this year.

And for those who do have faith in Cramer, Tuttle is also planning a Long Cramer ETF, or LJIM, to bet on investments that Cramer endorses. The filings did not disclose the fees for the two funds, but SARK charges an expense ratio of 0.75%.

https://www.wealthmanagement.com/etfs/fund-helped-investors-bet-against-cathie-wood-taking-jim-cramer


....


There were past studies conducted by wallstreet investment firms which concluded stock traders would make more money doing the opposite of Jim Cramer's advice. Than they would by following it. These studies of Jim Cramer's past stock recommendations are more than a decade old.

It appears that a new ETF is revisting the old studies purely for promotional and marketing effect, I would guess?

Anyways if anyone doesn't know who Jim Cramer is, he has been portrayed in many hollywood films as the stock advisor who caps off his stock picks with him hitting a button that emits "BUY, BUY, BUY!" or "SELL, SELL, SELL!" soundbytes. Jim Cramer has been around forever. I don't think he has ever been controversial enough to draw this type of heat. But it appears that perhaps times are changing?

Given the nature of this new ETF. Is it possible for a crypto based ETF (outside the united states) to mimic the move for purely clickbait reasons? Perhaps an index of crypto fade material could be made that shorted all of the worst altcoins and tokens.
614  Economy / Economics / Made in America is back, leaving US factories scrambling to find workers on: October 11, 2022, 11:56:02 PM
Quote
New York CNN Business — US factories are humming, and manufacturers are scrambling to find workers as the pace of hiring hits levels not seen in decades.

Friday’s September jobs report showed US manufacturers added another 22,000 workers in September, increasing employment in the sector by nearly 500,000 over the course of the last 12 months.

The nearly 13 million workers employed in US factories make up the industry’s largest workforce since the Great Recession caused employment in the sector to plunge more than a dozen years ago. Since April, manufacturing employment has been growing at about a 4% annual rate, the fastest sustained pace of growth since 1984, when the sector had more than twice as large a share of US jobs.

And employers say they now are scrambling to fill even more jobs. The sector has had about 800,000 openings for most of the last year, despite the hiring binge, according to the Labor Department’s report.

With supply chains causing problems throughout the global economy, many US companies that depended on overseas suppliers have been shifting their focus to sources of parts and goods much closer to home.

“It was taking months for parts to not only get manufactured but come across and they decided they were willing to pay US manufacturing pricing to get that much faster,” said Hayden Jennison, production manager for Jennison Corporation, a Carnegie, Pennsylvania, company that makes everything from fire fighting equipment to construction machinery. He said there’s enough demand for his goods to staff an entire additional shift at the factory. But even though he’s paying $20 to $30 an hour he can’t find the workers he needs.

“Hiring has been a problem since 2020,” Jennison said. “Hiring experienced candidates that understand the industry, and understand what they’re doing, has been very difficult.”

Typically factory jobs and output take a hit during economic downturns, as they did during the Great Recession. But even with fears of a recession rising now, industry experts don’t expect factory jobs to default to their familiar boom-to-bust cycle this time.

“I think we’re in uncharted territory,” said Jay Timmons, CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers. “For every 100 jobs openings in the sector we only have 60 people who are looking. I think it’ll take quite a while to fill that pipeline.”

Timmons said that pay in the sector is up 5% over the course of the last year, and he expects it to keep rising as manufacturers scramble for skilled labor.

Experts say one of the biggest problems manufacturers face in attracting workers is their perception of the nature of the job.

“We often take a look at the images of manufacturing and we see the sparks flying and a welding environment and perhaps it’s a little bit dingy, dark. But by and large our manufacturing jobs today are high tech,” said Eric Esoda, CEO of a not-for-profit providing consulting and training services to small- and mid-size manufacturers in Northeast Pennsylvania.

One group employers are looking to for more help: women. Manufacturing remains a male-dominated industry, with only 30% of hourly factory jobs held by women, according to NAM. But that’s up from 27% only two years ago, and the Manufacturing Institute, an education and workforce development arm of NAM, has various programs aimed at raising the share of women workers on factory floors to 35% by 2030.

Today less than 10% of private sector jobs are in manufacturing, compared to more than 40% at the end of World War II. But it is still a key sector of the economy, one that pays much better than many others. The Labor Department reports the average weekly wage for manufacturing jobs is $1,250, or $65,000 annually — 11% more than private sector jobs overall, and 81% more than retail jobs.



https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/09/economy/manufacturing-jobs/index.html


....


This sounds very optimistic and upbeat. Although, if ventures such as these are having a real positive effect on the US economy. I don't think its being felt.

While the manufacturing industry will definitely see a boost from high fossil fuel costs impairing global shipping. Followed by a shift to local sources of parts, goods and components. I think many manufacturing jobs in the united states rely heavily on subsidies. Which could make them prone to failure, should subsidy programs come to an end. The manufacturing sector in the USA is simply not very robust or independent. In the way that the country needs to fuel an explosion in manufacturing capability and job markets.

I think what the united states and many nations of the world really need. Is for youth and small businesses to step up. Big business has become too monolithic, unwieldy and inefficient. Small start ups could help to fill the many needs and wants being created by our looming recession.
615  Economy / Economics / Switching The World To Renewable Energy Will Cost $62 Trillion on: October 11, 2022, 11:48:53 PM
Quote
Mark Jacobson and his colleagues at Stanford University have published a new study in the journal Energy & Environmental Science that claims 145 of the world’s nations could switch to 100% renewable energy in a few years using renewable energy technologies available today. They recommend the world make the switchover by 2035, but in no event later than 2050. Their goal is to have 80% operating on renewable energy by 2030.

The researchers looked at onshore and offshore wind energy, solar power, solar heat, geothermal electricity and heat, hydroelectricity, and small amounts of tidal and wave electricity. Batteries were the most common electricity storage solution, with the team finding that no batteries with more than four hours of storage were necessary.

“We do not need miracle technologies to solve these problems. By electrifying all energy sectors; producing electricity from clean, renewable sources; creating heat, cold, and hydrogen from such electricity; storing electricity, heat, cold and the hydrogen; expanding transmission; and shifting the time of some electricity use, we can create safe, cheap, and reliable energy everywhere,” Jacobson says. He is a staunch supporter of the Green New Deal.

The researchers say switching to renewable energy would avoid utility grid blackouts and save consumers trillions of dollars. One of the main reasons for that finding is that the combustion-based energy systems most countries rely require a lot of energy just to function. In switching to a clean, renewable energy system, Jacobson states that worldwide energy usage would go down by 56% immediately.

Renewable Energy & Efficiency

Those savings are attributable to the efficiency of clean energy over combustion systems, as well as the efficiency of electrified industry. There would no longer be a need to explore for oil, coal, and gas, drill wells or dig new mines, transport oil to refineries, build and maintain pipelines, or truck petroleum products to end users, according to My Modern Met.

Efficiency is something that people who drive electric cars should understand quite well. A gallon of gasoline has the equivalent energy of a 33.7 kWh battery. Many electric cars today have a range of 300 miles or more, which means they can travel that far on the equivalent of 3 gallons of gasoline. A first generation LEAF had a 24 kWh battery, which means it was so efficient, it could go about 80 miles on the equivalent of about .8 gallons of gasoline.

A typical internal combustion engine is 20 to 25% efficient, which means three-quarters of what you pay for is wasted as friction or heat. An electric car is 80 to 95% efficient. In a world that is rapidly overheating, how much longer can we afford to be so profligate with our energy usage? Would you pay $100 for a suit that was worth only $25? Of course not, and yet every time people fill their tanks with gasoline, they are wasting three-quarters of the energy they are paying for.

The problem is similar when we consider thermal generation of electricity. The amount of energy wasted in the process it simply staggering, and yet we continue to generate electricity that way because it is what we are used to and we can’t see another way. Jacobson and company are shining a bright light on an alternate pathway.

Non-Economic Benefits, Too

The study is mostly about economics, but there are significant and quantifiable health benefits to not filling our lungs with air that is mixed with the harmful pollutants that result from combustion. People are hyper-vigilant about what they put in the bodies today and yet they never give a thought to the crud they breathe and drink and eat that is left over after fossil fuels are burned.

The cost of making the changeover to 100% renewable energy would be a staggering $62 trillion. Wow! That is a ton of money, people. But here’s the thing. Jacobson and his team say the savings from switching the world to 100% renewable energy would be $11 trillion a year. In other words, the initial investment would be paid back in just 6 years! Many people have a hard time distinguishing between an investment and an expense. They tend to see that $62 trillion as an expense and ignore the payback.

Ford is spending $40 billion to transition to making electric cars. Volkswagen, Mercedes, GM, BMW, Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota are doing the same. Does anyone think that money is just an expense or that the managers of those companies have not calculated the expected return on their investment down to the fraction of a penny? Why do we continue to view the cost of transferring to renewable energy as an expense and not an investment, one that will pay economic and non-economic benefits for generations?

Wind and sunshine are free. Once the systems to harvest energy from them are completed, the cost of fuel is zero. Yes, those resources will need to be updated, refurbished or replaced over time, just the way utility grids and thermal generating stations need to be as well. But the cost of fuel remains at zero while the price of fossil fuels gyrates radically over time.

There’s one other aspect of renewable energy that you can’t put a price on but it’s extremely valuable nonetheless — energy security. Nations that generate their own electricity don’t need to be at the mercy of lunatics and despots who can decide at any time to cut off the supply of oil, or unnatural gas, or coal. How much is that worth? It may be  hard to answer that question, but it is clearly not nothing. The people of Europe are facing a long cold winter because the supply of cheap methane from Russia has ended abruptly. How much would energy security be worth to them?

The Takeaway

In the conclusion to their study, Jacobson and his research colleagues say, “Transitioning to 100% [renewable energy] in 145 countries decreases energy requirements and annual private and social costs while creating about 28.4 million more long term, full time jobs than lost. A 100% [renewable energy] economy uses only about 0.53% of the 145 country land area, with 0.17% for footprint and 0.36% for spacing.”

People may quibble over some of the timing and access to the raw and manufactured materials needed to complete a changeover to 100% renewable energy. They may worry that there is not enough political will to make this happen. Those are valid concerns. But what the Stanford team is doing is setting a target. As Forrest Gump said, “If you don’t know where you are going, you’re not likely to end up there.”

It’s easy to say the task is too hard or too expensive or pushes too far, too fast. Those might be concerns for ordinary challenges. But when the objective is preserving the Earth as a sustainable place where human beings can live, making bold plans is really the least we can do.


https://cleantechnica.com/2022/09/06/switching-the-world-to-renewable-energy-will-cost-62-trillion-but-the-payback-would-take-just-6-years/


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They claim a global shift to renewable energy would cost $62 trillion and pay for itself in 6 years. Very ambitious and optimistic. Unfortunately we haven't seen much in the way of pilot programs or small scale ventures of this type which have shown promise of being successful. Which would draw public confidence given the negative direction energy markets have taken recently.

If the market price of bitcoin were higher. The same goals might be achieved by setting up wind and solar farms to mine bitcoin. Then using the profits to fund the expansion of renewable power and EVs. These sentiments have been echoed for many years. And I have recently seen some big authors on substack propose using this format to fund the expansion of renewable energy in africa.

The fossil fuel vs renewable energy debate will continue to rage on. Fossil fuels definitely have greater energy density at significantly lower efficiency. While renewables trend towards lower energy density with higher efficiency. Its an interesting contrast. I think technology has advanced to a point where EVs and renewables now have the advantage. Although it will take time for mass adoption to occur.

616  Other / Politics & Society / During the morning missile attack on Ukraine, the Russians hit Samsung Offices on: October 11, 2022, 11:26:46 PM
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The morning did not begin with good news. Ukrainian cities were subjected to massive shelling from the enemy. We hope all our readers are staying safe. Unfortunately, there are victims and destruction. Russian terrorists attacked civilian objects. In particular, in Kyiv, a rocket damaged the building of the 101 Tower office center, which housed Samsung’s office and the company’s R&D center.

As the Director of Consumer Electronics Division at Samsung Electronics Ukraine Andrii Skira reported on his Facebook page, all company employees were outside the office. We also hope that employees of other offices managed to respond to the alarm and get to the shelter.

Any evidence that Russia is a terrorist country is no longer needed. It should not be feared, it should be defeated. Therefore, we remain calm, believe and donate to the Armed Forces, and continue to work.


https://mezha.media/en/2022/10/10/russians-hit-the-office-and-r-d-center-of-samsung-in-kyiv/


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It is known economic sanctions on russia deprive the russian war effort of vital parts and components, such as semiconductors and computer chips.

Could russia target chip makers like samsung as primary military targets in the future. In an effort to pressure them to supply russia with much needed components?

In this instance russian rockets appeared to target samsung office bulidings. No one was hurt thankfully. Everyone had evacuated to a bomb shelter. How much pressure and destruction of real estate and assets can a chipmaker like samsung endure before they begin to reconsider sanctions and decide to rethink their stance on supplying russia with vital parts and components?
617  Economy / Economics / The end of cheap money reveals global debt problem on: October 10, 2022, 11:58:41 PM
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LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - The global financial crisis of 2008 was supposed to have taught the world the dangers of excessive debt. But borrowing has shot up since then. The debt of governments, companies and households was 195% of global GDP in 2007, according to the International Monetary Fund. By the end of 2020 it had reached 256%.

These debt mountains are harder to bear because interest rates are rising to stamp out inflation, the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis have clobbered growth, and investors are more averse to risk. This will cause economic stress especially in Europe, China and the Global South, poisoning domestic politics and geopolitics.

Debt has risen for three main reasons. First, governments bailed out the financial system. Then they supported households and companies during the pandemic. Now they are cushioning the blow of eye-popping gas and electricity prices.

QE DEBT SPLURGE

Cheap money enabled these splurges. In the West, this came in the form of quantitative easing (QE), where central banks bought government bonds and other assets. While they were right to use QE to prevent an economic slump, cheap money has been a painkiller. Many governments stopped worrying about balancing their books. Companies and emerging markets also leveraged up.

If the borrowers had used the money to fund productive investment, that might not have mattered. But instead, they spent much of it on unproductive investment or consumption.

China’s excess property construction is the prime example of unproductive investment. The country’s debt as a proportion of GDP has doubled since 2007, according to the IMF. This is suffocating its economy and is one of the reasons the World Bank has just slashed its growth forecast for China this year from 5% to just 2.8%.

Meanwhile, European governments’ massive support operations during the pandemic and the energy crisis are a classic example of borrowing to fund consumption. Politicians have made little attempt to target subsidies at the most vulnerable.

The poor productivity of this borrowing can be seen in the data. In the past decade, global debt has risen by $90 trillion, whereas GDP has grown by only $20 trillion, according to Sonja Gibbs, who leads the Institute of International Finance’s (IIF) debt policy work.

Artificially cheap money has also encouraged risky behaviour. Investors have used leverage to help them chase higher returns, while funding long-term assets with short-term borrowing. The UK pension fund industry, which effectively received a bailout from the Bank of England last week, is a good example of the former. The British habit of funding house purchases with mortgages whose interest rate is floating or fixed for short periods is an example of the latter. Other problems are bound to emerge now the era of cheap money is ending.

ROADRUNNER POLITICS

It’s not just central banks that are pushing up interest rates in a belated attempt to restrain inflation. So-called “bond vigilantes” – debt investors who impose discipline on profligate borrowers – are waking up from their long slumber.

The sharp fall in British sovereign bonds last week before the BoE stepped in is the first big sign of this in rich countries. Investors lost confidence in Liz Truss, the new British prime minister, because she is borrowing to cut taxes as well as to cushion consumers from high energy prices; and because Brexit had already harmed the country’s economic prospects.

But Truss’ willingness to take the risk is evidence of a generation of politicians which has grown up thinking there are few consequences for rising debt. They are scared that voters will throw them out of office if they balance their budgets. Central banks are worried about deepening recessions and provoking financial crises if they tighten monetary policy too much. But if central banks become government stooges, investors will lash out.

It’s not just the United Kingdom which is at risk. Italy and Greece are especially vulnerable because of their high ratios of debt to GDP. If investors conclude these are unsustainable, the euro itself may suffer renewed strains.

OUR CURRENCY, YOUR PROBLEM

Compared with others, the United States has some protection from this problem. Reserves of shale gas make it a relative winner from the energy crisis. And the rising dollar will help it stop inflation faster than other countries.

But the strong greenback makes life harder for almost everybody else. It is pushing up inflation in the rest of the world and adding to the distress of those that have borrowed in dollars. It’s more than 50 years since the then-U.S. Treasury Secretary told his counterparts that the “dollar is our currency but it’s your problem”. The adage is relevant again today.

We are in the early stages of a new debt crisis in the Global South. Poor countries are especially vulnerable to high food and energy prices. Investors’ increased risk aversion is also hitting them hard. The spread on high-yield sovereign dollar debt over U.S. Treasury bonds is now more than 10 percentage points – around double what it has been for most of the last decade, according to the IIF.

Sri Lanka, Ghana, Egypt and Pakistan have already called on the IMF for help with their debts. About 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or at risk of it, according to an IMF article. So far, this isn’t as serious as the Latin American debt disaster of the 1980s, which also infected Africa, or the East Asian crisis of the late 1990s, which dragged in Russia and Brazil. What’s more, the large western banks have less exposure to emerging markets than in the 1980s. But the flipside is that the debt is spread among many bond investors and that China is a massive lender. This fragmented creditor base makes it harder to restructure countries’ borrowings: no lender wants to take a hit unless they are confident that others will share the pain.

Poor countries could explode with anger, as they feel they are the victims of richer countries’ actions. They didn’t flood the world with cheap money, they didn’t get many vaccines to help with the pandemic, they didn’t cause the food or energy crises – and they are not to blame for the climate crisis which is hitting their countries particularly badly. Nevertheless, as in Europe and China, the problems caused by more than a decade of seemingly free money are now coming home to roost.


https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-end-of-cheap-money-reveals-global-debt-problem


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There is a concept I have read in a few places that claims growth is a fundamental necessity to debt based economies. Each year the economy must grow to pay off debt created by the previous year. If that doesn't happen, we risk spiraling into a vicious cycle where debts and liabilities grow at a faster rate than our ability to pay them off. Which eventually results in financial doom and gloom. Its certainly an interesting claim and idea to consider. I think such a trend would not immediately be fatal. There would be a window to address and fix the issue. Some margin of error and perhaps time measured in decades or years before the worst case scenario. But still it does sound somewhat concerning.

I wonder if a good strategy here could be to forget about recession and economic collapse. Focus on the rebound. Begin planning. Preparing. Taking steps for a return to a pre pandemic economy. What would that look like. What can people do to fast track a trend in that direction. Its been said that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Being an early adopter of bitcoin showed the world the value of getting in early. Is it possible the same trend will also apply to any economic downtrend which occurs and its recovery?
618  Economy / Economics / Re: "The times ahead will be radically different from those that we've experienced". on: October 10, 2022, 11:47:14 PM
If there are new world orders, is it safe to say their goal is to conquer the world?

Has the world seen past conquerors who tried to achieve something similar? Alexander the Great. Genghis Khan. Napoleon. Etc.

To a degree, we might draw upon past history in an effort to put the present day world into its proper context. Empires rise and fall. People live and die. Bad ideas usually die off, having little real world application or value. While good ideas normally survive to define the future. The trouble with this line of progression is people forget history. They forget which ideas were good and which were bad. Which forces them to relearn through first hand experience. The generation gap prevents future generations from learning from their ancestors. Knowledge isn't transmitted as well as it could be.

Many of these topics come down to fundamental validity of ideas. People support ideas they believe are correct. Economic prosperity or recession occur as a result. If we're lucky people learn and make better choices in the future. That's all that we can do. Its our hope for the future.
619  Economy / Gambling discussion / Formula 1's Crypto.com Sponsor Is Falling Apart on: October 10, 2022, 11:31:43 PM
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Ad Age illustrates just how quickly a booming company can fall apart.

If you’ve watched a Formula 1 race this year, there’s a good chance you have — if only unconsciously — seen plenty of Crypto.com ads. Along with companies like Aramco, DHL, Emirates, and Heineken, Crypto.com has looked like it’s become one of the key players in financing the future of global open-wheel motorsport. But right now, all that money might be drying up.

A new report from Ad Age’s Asa Hiken describes a company that has marketed itself into a downward spiral. If you’ve watched any sporting events in the recent past, you’ve probably either seen a commercial or an eventside ad for Crypto.com, a cryptocurrency exchange platform. Now, it looks like thousands of employees are being let go as the “crypto winter” descends.

Just after Crypto.com announced that it had hit the 50-million user mark — and just after it had served as a primary sponsor for F1's Miami Grand Prix — the crypto market crashed.

From Ad Age:

Quote
In the months that followed, Crypto.com quietly downsized many of the partnership deals intended to garner mainstream attention for the brand, and in some cases the firm has attempted to pull out from these deals altogether, according to details shared by former and current employees at the company who spoke with Ad Age on the condition of anonymity.

The exchange also saw a reduction in its headcount of previously unreported scale, with 30% to 40% of its pre-summer workforce departing the company from June through August—the vast majority of which were due to layoffs, according to former and current employees.

A lack of internal directories prevented Ad Age from confirming exact numbers, as well as differentiating between layoffs and natural attrition, but multiple sources independently stated that just over 2,000 employees have left the company since layoffs began. Crypto.com was previously reported to have let go of just over 1,000 employees at most. Marketing personnel were some of the first to be targeted by the layoffs, including an entire in-house creative team that was eliminated mere months after its creation, sources said.

In the article, one advertising professional who worked with Crypto.com described the company as follows: “I’ve worked with many ambitious clients before, but Crypto.com is probably the most ambitious client I’ve ever worked with.” That’s because, in a span of less than a year, the brand became internationally known thanks to its intense marketing push that saw it become a massive enterprise. It worked well at getting Crypto.com’s name out.

But a downturn in crypto interest saw the platform tumble. Crypto.com has dissolved deals with Angel City F.C., Twitch Rivals, and the UEFA Champions League. It has maintained several other deals with sports teams or events but has in some cases reduced the number of hospitality packages available.

Right now, the future of Crypto.com and cryptocurrency as a whole is a little unclear. It obviously hasn’t become a universally adopted form of currency, and the initial allure seems to have faded. It could keep tumbling, or it could see a new rise in interest. Formula 1 likely won't fall apart thanks to Crypto.com — but it's yet another fascinating chapter in the sport's long history of accepting sponsorship deals that aren't quite cut out to meet their promises.



https://jalopnik.com/formula-1s-crypto-com-sponsor-is-falling-apart-1849626650


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Terrible news, if true. I had high hopes for crypto dot com doing well with their sports enterprise. As they own and operate a crypto exchange, I was hoping it would help insulate them from volatility and negative price trends. It would seem trading volume in crypto is on something of a decline.

Does anyone know if crypto dot com has sources of revenue aside from their exchange. They expanded so quickly in so many major markets. Maybe it will give them enough holdings to survive and prosper over the long term. Considering how easily they expanded into mainstream sports markets, is it possible that many sports in general are on a decline? Enough so that there is a diminishing demand for sponsorships which made it easier for crypto dot com to get their foot in the door.

Video games and esports seem like the main growth sports that are gaining in size year after year. Other more physical and athletic sports appear to be in something of a decline. Am I correct in making that observation?

Also if you were CEO of cryptodotcom what steps would you take to secure the future of your brand? Is there an exit strategy or recession proof business plan that they can deploy here to turn things around?
620  Economy / Economics / Re: Portugal will be "hodling friendly" on: October 10, 2022, 10:56:44 PM
Portugal recently implemented a digital nomad VISA to make it easier for whales earning internet revenue to travel to and reside in the country.

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Portugal’s new digital nomad visa just made working remotely from a European beach easier

When you think "digital nomad," you might immediately think about tropical destinations.

But the trend has also been growing in Europe, and Portugal just announced a new digital nomad scheme that will open for applications this month.

The government confirmed last week that from Oct. 30, workers from any countries that aren't part of the European Union or European Economic Area can apply for the remote work and residency visa.

Proof of tax residency, employment details, such as a contract, and evidence of workers' income will be required.

Applicants will also need to be earning at least four times as much as the Portuguese national wage. That is currently 822 euros ($798), so the minimum monthly income for digital nomads would be around 3,288 euros.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/portugal-e2-80-99s-new-digital-nomad-visa-just-made-working-remotely-from-a-european-beach-easier/ar-AA12NjO9

Spain also recently implemented a similar digital nomad VISA program.

I would guess countries like puerto rico are having success as popular financial safe havens for americans migrating abroad.

Enough so that european nations are implementing measures to emulate their success.
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