maybe if you take a break. sit back and relax for like 30 minutes and realise.. PRICE IS NOT VALUE

many people think the only thing that exists in life is the price. one point of measure. one level..
however this is not true.

the PRICE is made up of layers. like a sandwich

PoS is a meatless lettuce and tomato sandwhich...
PoW is a BLT of bacon lettuce and tomato

yes both have lettuce and tomato. but your missing out on the bacon
the underlying value is the bacon..
the lettuce and tomato is the supply demand sentiment

imagine gold. as explained before.. the cost of the diggers, the labour, the diesel the sluice machines the licences of water/land rights. all form an undeniable underlying cost.
however treasury bank notes. have no real cost. its like a quarter of a penny to print a piece of paper smaller then a post card

notice the difference
yes a $2k bank note and a $2k gold nugget both have the same PRICE. but their values are different.
people would rather have the nugget. as the paper bank notes price wont be as good in 20 years as a nugget

a bank note in 20 years will buy less loaves of bread than a nugget would

take anything. fruit. bread.. dont ever look at it as just the retail price.. learn and understand the wholesale price the manufacturing cost. then you will start to see if different items are being sold at excessive profit or at good value. never judge value based on retail price but based on how much they are skimming off customers from the underlying cost

governments set out what 'currency' 'asset' 'token' 'note' as the national currency. they employ laws like tax, minimum wage, courtfines to ensure that currency is used by citizens (aka legal tender)

this makes people need to have services to transfer, exchange, store, audit/log.

if a government was to adopt a crypto. they wouldnt just let it be wild where citizens can self transfer without logs/audits. they would want some form of custodian group, with regulations on what/who they monitor and how much citizens can move without presenting as a flag.

changing from fiat to crypto wont destroy banks. it would just change what banks handle

take even the altnets like LN. even now with just a few thousand users its already showing its weakness of independance by having some users not want to be full nodes because they just want the phone litewallet version. meaning people end up depositing into hubs custody as a multisig. these hubs are then banks

heck even on the bitcoin network in 2012. i remember times where instead of just withdrawing from one exchange to another. id use bitinstant 'codes' to exchange reserves between mtgox and btc-e to move funds faster when arbitraging the markets.

so there will always be some custodian service offering something that users want and these services will be the 'banks'

thats because in fiat world. when you buy shares from broker X those shares stay in broker X's portfolio service. and when you sell its from the same portfolio/broker so when withdrawing the fiat its easy to show tracability your your bank to not flag it as new income.

however fiat going to one exchange account and then randomly another allotment enters you bank account from another exchange does flag as new income.

this is why for the last decade some banks have been freezing accounts that show linkages to exchanges and why in some countries people get contacted by the IRS

i know that users playing with their sums dont see it from the same prospective. because they can see their movements. but get out of the box and see it from the banks prospective of what they cannot see and how they would perceive it

bitcoin mining does not have a centralisation problem

take antpool which for half a decade was smeared as being "china" truth is antpool as 3 stratums. one china, one american one european. so china cant exactly just shut antpool down.
all antpool need to do is change its website/server. a 2 second job, and business as usual if authorities came knocking.

as for mining farms. they suffer from what is known as facility limit. they can only house a certain amount of asics per building. again no pain for them. they can have several buildings. even less pain the buildings dont even have to be at same location. they can simply remote control which 'work' to sent to each building no matter the location.

as for the pareto problem. bitcoin is different. although the top 3 pools have most the hashpower. the hashpower is not all their own. its users voluntarily linking to that pool. and users if they see their pool getting to 50% most see their 'slice' of the reward get thinner and thinner.  and so they pool jump

there is however a 'class divide' problem
where home hobby miners with 1-3 asics due to residential limits on electric circuits. and affordability of only a couple low efficiency asics (s9) mean that their daily income per kwh is less than say a mining farm

this is also shown as a divide because say for instance an s9 at 14thash. vs an s19pro at 110thash has a 8x efficiency of hashes for only 2.5x of electric draw... the hardware price however is not in the 3-8x area.

it costs more then 8x price of a s9 which prices people out of gaining in the electric efficiency
.


lastly. as for the PRICE.
people keep forgetting the bitcoin price is never and has never been based on all coins in circulation.
most(all currently) price movements are not movements caused by people having to own a whole bitcoin to put that whole bitcoin on a orderbook to sell at the whole bitcoin price just to trigger a movement.
instead people are making orders of 0.001($60) and making the price move a bit at a time. so the price does not need whales with hundreds of bitcoins
yes it would be good to have all the whales put in 'beached whale' orders(walls) at sat $55k so that no matter how many sellers want to sell they will never devour a $55k wall
but my point is the bitcoin price is not based on masses of coin

actual relations with china are not bad at all. its the media perception thats bad.
did you know that while media news were screaming that china is an enemy. THOUSANDS of businesses were shaking hands with china.
yep right now this second there are mcdonalds, kfc, nike, and pepsi and thousands of brands happily working in china. the media perception does not like US business going to china, but they cant stop it. so instead media presents china as a bad place to go to. yet business sees a new customer base of 1.3 billion people and if they can just earn $10 per person they can earn $13billion from china.

US media has been screaming WW3 with china for longer then most of us have been alive. yet everyday we all trade and work with the chinese.


large asic farms can afford to move. its the residential hobby miners that are stuck. they are the ones told to just stay in place but shut down and stop working in mining coin

"mixing coins" has no law or regulation against it. you are correct. but the vocal conversation of wanting to launder value (in any currency) is a AML flag(its why some exchanges blacklist coins with such taint by default)

changing fiat to say poker chips.. and then swapping different casino chips with friends in some basement. is not unlawful. but the act of starting with fiat deposited at casino #1 and ending up with fiat from casino #3+#5 would flag up as a AML flag that a bank seen $10k->#1    and then a few days later #3+#5-> $10k fiat

so although the act of casino chipping is not regulated/monitored. . the bank(fiat) will show a discrepensy of deposit-withdrawal from different places and ofcourse an investigation would occur. not just for AML. but just to ensure about tax into on the magical $10k the bank account later received that cant be explained. thus treated too simply as new income of $10k. rather than just a refund of an earlier $10k spend

EG the situation could have been seen as going to las vegas with $10k. and just spending it. hotel, hotdogs, tours, entertainment.. money gone. poof.  then a month later a strange new $10k appeared elsewhere.

so by admitting it was not a spend of $10k and then a refund of $10k (net zero profit). questions then arise as to how money went into one business but came out of another business

again. fiat regulations dont/mostly cant look at all the movements of crypto..
but if they see $10k go into one exchange.. and $10k come out of another exchange. it can light up some flags
then there are the exchanges own policies to keep them regulated on their fiat side by KNOWING more about the btc side to protect their fiat licences... they may see some coin deposits in and out that look suspect so they make a report themselves. which linked with the bank accounts flag draws more attention to the person.

i know i know you have been hearing rhetoric from certain devs that want 'mixing' to be normalised soo much that it becomes part of standard currency fungibility. but what a dev wishes society to be is not how the banking/government regulate society and investigate society

as for the shift in price.

imagine it this way

take it as a percentage
say 40% was in china at $0.04
say 10% was in khazahkstan at $0.05
say 20% was in america was at $0.12
say 30% was in europe was at $0.18

the average would be 9.9cents per %
now lets take out china

say 40% was in khazahkstan at $0.05
say 30% was in america was at $0.12
say 30% was in europe was at $0.18

the average would be 11cents per %
so although this is demo numbers and % per region is not accurate(random demo numbers). it just demonstrates the average is now 11cent

what you actually find out is this though
instead of 40% (chinese) willing to sell coin based on a low cost of $0.04% . meaning 40% would sell bitcoin real cheap if the price was to crash.
now its a situation of in this demo only 30% willing to sell at the next price point as the MINIMUM anyone willing to sell

so the situation is simple. if we imagine that the thousands of asics needed to mine in china led to say a combined cost of hardware, facility, labour of say $20k. ($4k being electric)

khazahkstan would become the next lowest cost. whereby facility, labour hardware is $22 and electric $5k makes the lowest cost mining now $27k instead of $24k

and as said instead of china 40% willing to at worse case sell down to $24k..
the newer situation in this demo. now has the lowest sentiment now being only 30% wanting to sell down to $27k worse case

if you have 1 BTC and the market is at around the ATH and your unsure if you want to sell out or wait out for next ATH..
.. the answer is not binary.. you can do both..

EG how about sell 50% of your 1btc.
if the price drops you can use that $30k fiat to buy more then 0.5btc at a lower price
if the hoarded unspent original 0.5btc goes up in price you will get more then $30k
thus win win

if thte price just stagnates for a year. no major up or down
what you can then do is look at other official assets and find ones that are on their yearly LOW. and use that $30k fiat to buy in and sell out to increase that $30k to more.

just remember all good advice
1. dont put all eggs into one basket(dont throw all wealth into one choice)
2. buy low sell high

what many also find is never look to throw large investment into one thing. and then hope for a 2x in a limited time.
many people prefer to work with 10 allotments + of their wealth. and look for quick or easy 1-3% movements. knowing these 1-3% overtime add up to the 2x factor. but with less risk. less stagnated waiting/hoping/stressing.

as to what to invest in.
make sure its legit. EG not some crapcoin thats dev/HQ team is hiding behind proxies with glossy pamphlets of overpromises.
make sure the price of a legit asset is not in its seasonal high
make sure the investment/transaction fee's of getting in-out are not going to wipe out 1%+, meaning you dont have to wait for higher % just to move. thus able to grab profits sooner/faster

anonimity is about not associating WHO to a bitcoin payment
privacy is about not associating WHAT that bitcoin payment is for

lets take the previous poster who says anonimity is mandatory to him..(blatchcorn)
yet in 30 seconds
i have associated these addresses to him
bc1q9mks3l560y3tsauc0n4w4ym4nr0v6450tv6x7e
1J4ZCUuarqFTRRUtcQAaUJ4oLAVhx75bM6
^2 addresses of poster just publicly admitting his addresses

v over a dozen addresses using same wallet as the 1j4Z address
14ZveSen3Gmrmy3Acgq74UY1BMxRPPaT5j
1DzxpCB1i6j1JZygnhiqfTiL4hA3q5RYmr
1tm98b3uyngMaVUKpqKMgkB1QNm8r8DJL
1BUEPSa4q7dpedGrgpdTfKhkfmLBeLq2DQ
1NAb9qsmZ64pL6GA1DnkGktCtHTCFJvmVu
162QxHMPExaaYYX8jZtfB6mebu4N6WDZZh
139W3wAhtC3fqLLNvrPHxqDqyXUStL29aC
1HcWrqwmRHj1LXB8jh7Ls96zkZqwVuZeKZ
1KE27MdwfuCX7bSmBY4pfxP29fUAxVP5gR
1KutFw96EppvJUz4ed6ep1MKEUNzzANjCy
1GM4qUkP7eCwjJdR88S15yBMdegNjKyDXx
1HHu7BzFfZfxLq8sV19JTzjeiPrRejiMQC
1PauCQiDZXP3CfmHM73ysk48K4vDJAvv9t

oh, and he is from UK. and atleast 6 years ago lived in birmingham

and he has admitted and associated addresses have shown proof of his use of mixers. meaning he has admitted to a crime of laundering.

so 30 seconds has found enough info for UK police to spend more time on someone that confessed to a crime

oh and his binance hotwallet deposit address seems to be
bc1qdlue5pymx4hx8nlsgqsyllk8w9dexnac402uwh

..
just saying. its kinda easy to get info just by clicking a few buttons from a novice that doesnt even have all the analysis tools that some have

when investors pluck a random number out of their head. usually this number is actually based on their investment price x2

looking back at when he 'bought in' strangely it seems to be true because he bought in at the 2020new year period when the price was ~$34k

..
i have seen it many times before people pluck out prices like "$100k by year end" where it becomes obvious they bought in at the $50k level.
some call out $130k. and you read their social media/forum/texts history and you see they bought in at the last ATH of $65k and crying when it then corrected.

most people are happy to 'double their money' as their exit range.. and thats all i see happening with this meme. Elon getting excited that the price is only 15% away from being his 2x factor

no website link. not business name mentioned. no credentials..
i must be near the ocean because im smelling something fishy

my and pokers conversations about VALUE. is not about PRICE

again gold VALUE is ~$1k whilst the SPOT PRICE is like $1.8k

market forces (speculation hype, pump and dump bubble) is the PRICE determiner..

but the underlying VALUE is the determiner of the LOW where people stop selling down. you know the ultimate bottom.

electric and hash power does not determine the mid(active/spot) or any ATH(all time high) as again for emphasis thats the market speculation premium layer of volatility.

but the underlying value is the low

imagine it like farming fruit. it costs a farmer 20cents to grow an apple but the retail price for a customer is 60cents.
the price can swing up and down from the 60cents but will never go below 20 cents because thats the price the farmer costs it at to sell to supermarkets.. and supermarkets are not stupid enough to sell at a loss.

so whilst retail PRICE is market determined. value COST is cost determined.

have a nice day

put it this way. chinese mining at say 140exa hash had a $20k underlying value.. meaning no one dares sell below $20k unless foolishly making a bug in their trade bot.

now majority of mining maybe outside of china. the lowest cost value is already higher. so say america is majority the average underlying value is about $37k

meaning thats the new 'bottom' and toughest resistance to break that no one will dare sell below
so its not just hash power but also yes electrical price. slowly making the min price ever to be seen again be on a rise. supporting the price from ever going below a certain value.
the only time this bottom value support can decline is if hashrate declines

PoS works by people staking their coin. . no intense computation needing superior hardware
it creates no value. there is no 'cost' in mining. people can put their stake in. and later take it out. no loss

this makes altcoins with PoS have no underlying value in its coin creation. thus reliant on value from the features of what that coin can do/be used for after the creation to keep the coin active/alive.

bitcoin has a real cost of creation via the mining hardware. much like golds underlying cost is in gold mining costs.

because it costs $10's of thousands in electric/hardware to make just one bitcoin. (more precisely hundreds of thousands per 6.25 reward) that gives bitcoin a baseline value. which no one wants to sell below. thus giving bitcoin a good actual store of value.
yes there is the vapour/speculative/bubble premium ontop thats volatile. but thats the same with gold

golds underlying cost value is like $1k and the rest of the 'premium' that makes up the combined 'spot' price is the speculative supply/demand, hype

the only reason people want PoS is because the fantasy of profit for nothing. or no-loss profit. but the thing about PoS is if a coin was successful and everyone was using it. eventually the slicing up of the reward being split between everyone involved would leave everyone with nothing. thus majority lose interest

PoS is just a fantasy of getting rich for free. whereby it only really works by pump and dumping the coin to keep it viable and entertaining enough to avoid just turning into a zero utility coin.

because the amount of blocks are limited a viable coin would end up with people having to syndicate their stake into a group of people. much like how bitcoin mines in groups. thus again making it no different and having the same competition. but with an PoS altcoin its a fight to the bottom rather than with bitcoin which is a fight to the top

bitcoins mining method is more secure then PoS and the more hardware competition to mine = stronger hashing which cant be undone as cheap. bitcoins security grows.  cost grow. meaning base value grows.

altcoin PoS security does not grow. no matter how much is staked. and if it got popular. there would end up being more people wishing to break an altcoin for quick riches rather than stick to the rule. PoS only survives by having a small userbase of stakers and just enough enticement and fantasy to keep it active.

basically the more that use bitcoin the stronger it gets.. the more that use PoS altcoins the weaker it gets. but it requires enough peters to pay pauls so that the early stakers can leave, but have enough later stakers to keep the fantasy alive.

PoS is not a thing you want to use for something as big as bitcoin.

smart parents that disagree with a schools direction, advice, just home school their kid or change school districts, and then lobby to change school policy

idiot parents threaten to kill the teachers..
and then badecker posts a conspiracy site article saying they dont understand why authorities then want to react to death threats..

hmm. maybe because idiot parents are making death threats.

if parents want change. they can collectively petition the school board.
death threats wont change policy. al that occurs is the parent gets arrested

the binance.us UI has those warnings. but its API that bots use have different signals.
that said it was the sellers fault so i dont think he would be asking for support. he will just knotch it up to his own stupidity and treat its as a learning experience.. eg we all make mistakes.

as for luck.. well many people that cant be bothered storing coins in cold wallets/private wallets offline. and prefer to use exchanges as their 'bank account'. many of them do just leave their coin as active orders at low numbers. they dont really hope or pretend their orders will ever get filled due to happy accidents. .. but for those that did on the binance.us orderbook that day. they will be very happy they did.
cant say it will ever happen again. and i dont suggest people to leave lots of coin in exchanges for long periods, for the 'hope' of 10x discount accidents.. as it is more likely that a MTGOX 'we lost your coins' is more of a chance of happening instead of profiting

instead of a central exchange with millions of people all ordering from one orderbook, bitcoin is based on dozens of exchanges. meaning low volume per exchange. meaning thin 'walls'

so instead of the combined 1mill coins making thick walls to protect the price. dozens of exchanges offering dozens of different fiat/btc orderbooks weakens the walls yields.
binance, yes just binance alone doesnt just have one order book of say 100k coins for usd/btc. it actually has a few diluted books of usdT, usd, tether and other fiats of 'dollar' to btc meaning that on that certain USD/BTC book it only has combined order yield of like 600 coins protecting the price.

its allows for people with just a few coin to shift the price alot.

if we were in a situation where all exchanges were brokers for 1 central orderbook. where by the collective value was 1mill+ coins. then a user with 500 coins would not put a scratch in the price.

however the decentralised nature means that the particular small yield orderbook of binanceUS usd/btc means he did put a big sinkhole in that orderbook.

luckily though. the usual arbitrage bots that like to take advantage of this and replay the moves on other exchanges to shift other exchanges into the same motion, did not trigger. because if the did, even if there was no trader with a bug that inputed sell down to $8k trading on other exchanges. arbitrage bots woulda caused a ripple effect to cause a movement downwards just to stay inline with the exchange that had the incident.

so that has become a lucky good sign that exchanges are now becoming more decentralised and not so trigger happy to copy/paste order patterns across multiple exchanges

if this incident happened in say 2016, we would have seen many exchanges and their multiple fiat-btc orderbooks sheeple arbitrage react and follow the pattern causing the overal price of all exchanges to drop.

so lets be glad, that the recent event didnt cause cross exchange triggering of prices. but also lets take this as a learning experience that the yields of coin per orderbook is very light of coin. meaning very fragile to change prices easily with little coins.

where by. someone with say 5000 coin. could position themselves to spread their coin over 10 main notable orderbooks. and effect 10 orderbooks simultaneously to dip the price down vastly per exchange and force a trigger of the arbitrage bots of other exchanges to follow suit down.

learn atleast that although there are 18.85mill coins in the bitcoin network. there are not 18.85 mill coins protecting the bitcoin price. in this case binanceUS usd/btc only had about 600 coins in its orderbook listing down to $8k

the institutional trader made a mistake with his bot. so his fault for HIS bot selling HIS coin.
the other people on the exchange, if they are effected, well they are buyers. meaning they got cheap coin at discount.

i dont have the order history (maybe other people in topic can provide that) but most volume/orders are usually 'full' in the first 10% of orderbook so most of the 500+ coins would have sold at $63k->$57k and then a few dozen below that at probably $57k-$37k and a few dozen $37k-$8k. because the volume at the lower orderlines would be low of yeild the further away from the main spread price minutes before the action

in short it didnt sell all coins at $8k. but alot of coins above $60k, and less and less coins as the orders got eating down the price wall. so the loss, averaged out is not as bad as some think..

but for the lucky buyers that did happen to have orders sat at low numbers for the ;just in case' well. lucky for them.

just goes to show what happens when instead of one central market yielding combined orders that total 1mill coins to defend a price point. but instead there are multiple markets of the same currency pair where many markets only yield a combined orderbook of under 600coin each..

it then doesnt take much to eat through them orders.
just be glad that the arbitrage bots of other exchanges didnt trigger their own mass sell off to match the sudden event on binance US,

its one of the many reasons for bitcoin volatility. many exchanges with many having order lines that just a 0.001 can change the price by over 10cents

yep $60 can manipulate the price by 10cents. meaning a market cap that was:
18.85mill coin X $63,000.10 = $1187551885000
becomes
18.85mill coin X $63,000.10 = $1187550000000

meaning that these WEAK exchanges with WEAK volume and WEAK orderline value and WEAK gaps between price points can change a 'market cap' by $1.8m on a particular exchange, by just a single order of $60 of fiat

and also the other weakness. by having low volume of combined orderbook. can send the price of the exchange into free fall with just a few hundred coins.

..
again for emphasis. this bit of drama could have been far far worse if the arbitrage bots were triggered to sheep follow the crash on other exchanges. causing all exchanges of low volume to crash/dip

but LN isnt hidden. part of routing is to allow the "gossip" part of the network to gather all info on the network about balances of channels... and also when payments are done the gossip updates new balance.. heck there is even graphic maps of channels, listing the channel partners and much more info than bitcoin reveals.

yes you can pretend that it offers no 'history' but if your watching live, over time you can just record your own records of the changes channels make. and then make your own 'history'