In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.
tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.
Eventually, I'll drain the liquidity, no matter how high I set my fee rate, and the channel ends up going stale if I don't take action on it.
Instead now, when the channel gets drained one way, practically entirely, I basically set my fee rates extremely low, like 0/10, and I start getting a lot of traffic coming back the other way, filling up my drained liquidity again.
Probably blatantly obvious to some, but I'm a tard, and just figured this out on my own over the last 48 hours, and it's working ridiculously well so far to re-fill drained liquidity.
As the channel gets more balanced, I start cranking up the fees, and stuff starts flowing back out the other way, for another round of profit taking on routing.
Neato.
It took me a solid 2 years to figure this out. And it is STILL significant work. Even though I do not know you really, you are one of the smartest people I know.  HOWEVER... eventually the nodes will be able to run themselves using these exact same strategies. I have been wondering what that means to the costs of the network. Lightning is a network that seems to be quite distributed. It might just be that the presence of people like you and I will create an environment where the fees will always be kept fairly low. Because there will always be nodes trying to draw traffic, so there is always a fee sale somewhere. See what I mean? Since pathfinding is markets on FAST FORWARD there will not be choke points like there are in the current system. Or at least they will have a much harder time establishing them. In fact I believe retailers will be incentivized to run nodes and now instead of a Krogers shoppers card you would have a Krogers node connection (or even wallet). The big "routing nodes" will be the retailers, not the banks. And those big retailers would be incentivized to keep their fees as low as possible to their customers, I think. At least that's what I have been seeing recently... who knows if it really means something lol. Then your lightning nodes liquidity becomes a total input vs output thing... They can just sit there and hum along for virtually ever. There are serious development opportunities in this particular space. I wish I was not so lazy. I would seize them! Lol. |
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Does anyone else feel like we are about to see a HUGE MOVE in the price... but do not know which way it is going to go? I almost hope I just doomed us to a month of crab walking... (oh, and barring a big ass move, I suppose this would be a last stop before we test the channel top. Barring a big ass move...)  |
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the sound of one hand
pointing at the golden moon
where is our dino? |
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..... I understand you are talking about the case, and not the coin... BUT! One of these things is not like the others...  Great catch cAPS..... I mean mR eAGLE eYE! I never even noticed that. Here's the certificate that came with coin. So direct all complaints to Julie.  Uh-oh.. with that terminology, surely she is fixin to get a proper batslappening from Jay....perhaps? Hmm, i was trying to desribe the problem yesterday, in one line of the three-pointed list of supposed blemishes. I shoud have used a descriptive image like cAPSLOCK did. We both obviously found that design inconsistency shortly after another. EDIT: For reference, my clumsy attempt to describe the red circled spot: 1. The upper dash (serif) on the left side of the BTC should be outdent, like the lower one.
EDIT2: ChartBuddy, pump it up, so i can backread several pages of WO tomorrow morning! Good nite  Oh cool! That was a perfect description. I did not see it. I actually kind of like this little discrepancy. It gives it flavor. And if I could only have one way, I like the outlier better (like Hueristic) ! |
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I recently installed my very fav FOSS OS (with the nvidia drivers) Arch Linux on a little external drive. So I can boot that OS up on the little USB3 drive and enjoy life. I decided I had room on this 1T drive to run a Monero node, so YEAH! Why not? Well I ended up seeing this:  Wow.. how spoiled we are by SSDs. So, I actually went to the trouble of moving this to a smaller but blazing fast 500G external SSD drive (it's an M.2 in a little case... ) And the monero chain will take up more % of the drive but, yeah... it's worth it. I was just ~6700 blocks behind, and it was estimating hours. On the little SSD external? Looks like it will take 15m (I have about 5m left. So anyway... just another reminder that indeed, Monero really really want's to be on an SSD for practical purposes. I would not want to wait hours every time I want to run my node after it going stale for a week or two... One more question: Why does "Feather" not get more love? I just installed the Monero CLI, and will run the node and Feather as my GUI. I truly appreciate the work that went into the official client, but Feather is just an almost perfect wallet... Even works with the Ledger! |
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He's out there somewhere...  [/url] |
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I know that Elwar sold his house for bitcoin around that time. Not sure about the origins of the house.
This is all you need anyway  That *is* an unnecessary chair? |
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I understand you are talking about the case, and not the coin... BUT! One of these things is not like the others... Funny thing is I prefer the one in red. Me too actually. It gives it the double line vibe. It's good like that! |
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........
You don't mean the placement of the pocket is off center (vertically)?
.......
Off center.... correct! ....But in reality, its offset about 2 mm in the X-axis (horizontal), not the Y. But without that top view I can see that it does appear off in the Y. ........
Barely noticeable. But what's that dent/chip on the upper lefr corner rounding on the first photo, with the coin pocket is facing upwards? Just a reflection?
.......
Ha! I forgot about that and didn't even notice it showed in photo till you mentioned it. Indeed another fubar. And I didn't make a big enough chamfer to clean it up.  I understand you are talking about the case, and not the coin... BUT! One of these things is not like the others... |
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Looking at this from the reverse view, I remember a young guy posted here a long time ago that he had sold a house he had inherited from his father and bought bitcoin with all the proceeds. I think the BTC price might have been $300 at the time. I often wonder if he held on long term to his coins. Which would now buy him an entire street of 100 houses or more. At the time many here were saying he was crazy to risk all of his fathers lifetimes work, while others - who had a good inkling of where the coin was heading - applauded and encouraged the young guy. I have been around a minute. My guess is the majority of early holders have sold. Quite a few I'd say. A few of them went on to make a killing in ETH and other emergent alts. MANY of them lost most of their stack with alts. An elite few (some of them here) went on to bolster their stack via trading, but most traders lost, of course. And some, a minority in my humble opinion, have held through into the years. I am proud to be among those, though what I DID NOT do is ever buy enough lol. Duh. Some proudhons.. erm, I mean people, did sell a lot, but had so much they were still in pretty good shape. I think that probably a majority of the "winners" are in this category. I remember Laszlo posting a picture of a couple pizzas he bought on Pizza day what was is... 17? 18? I am not sure... But the fun part is look at his house in the background... looks new. Looks like it's pretty fancy.  |
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Oh GOD. Are we ALREADY starting back up with the damn EOY predictions again? Is less than ONE MONTH long enough to forget all our lessons learned?!?!? lol. |
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A while back I did a comparison review of various lightning wallets. I did not rate Bluewallet very highly as at the time their software was clunky, primarily custodial, and hardest to move coins around with. They have come a LONG LONG way since then adding several features that are unique. For example you can even add LND (and CL I think) based seed words and produce the onchain wallet associated with that LND node. I don't think any other wallet does this. Anyway... their software has found a place on my phone for some basic lightning uses... and I have come up in my appreciation of what they build. I was dismayed that they were opne of the projects that planned to implement the spy features... and I expressed concern. As it turns out my understanding is they are reversing course. This has been an extremely interesting little event in the Bitcoin world, and encouraging to see. I also did not want to have to do a holy journey to El Salvador to ceremonially throw my Trezor into a volcano...  |
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How much UP movement in BTC price does it take before you personally are going to start to believe that the bottom for this particular correction is "in"?
By the way, if you have not looked at the BTC price charts recently (out of fear, detachment or for whatever other personal reasons) our current bottom is at $32,951 - nearly 4 days ago as I type this post.
Yesterday (or was it the day before? the days all mix together sometimes, no?), I had already provided my tentative answer to this question, but I would not mind hearing what other WO posters consider a sufficient UPpity BTC price threshold in order to start to feel a wee bit cocky that the bottom for this correction may well be "in" (sure your might want to account for time, too.. but mostly I am trying to focus on price in this here question with a kind of presumption that the threshold could get crossed in the next 1 hour to 6 months).
Here are the response options:
1) Already enough UPpity to proclaim the bottom is "in".
2) Getting above $38k for more than a few hours will be enough
3) Getting above $40k
4) Getting above $42k
5) Getting above $46k
6) Getting above $50k
7) Getting above $55k
8.) Getting above $62k
9) Getting above some other price level not listed above (and perhaps some additional criteria?)
Pray tell. Opinions matters, especially the opinion of uie pooie (I won't even make any exceptions here.. for the sake of inclusivity.. hahahahahaha)
Edit:
Bonus question. Am I getting to be too presumptuous regarding conditions in which the bottom might be in with my asking the above question?
Bonus description: I acknowledge that there are going to be some WO active members here that want to fight with presumptions of the above question, and may well not want to participate in this proposition because they are having trouble accepting any conditions in which the bottom might already be "in"
Edit 2: After looking at a couple of responses: I believe that if you proclaim that "we need down before up" then you are fighting the hypothetical, and this hypothetical that I present is largely presuming up and asking "how much UP" do you need to see before you can conclude that the "bottom is in" which current bottom is already described as $32,951...
I see the tendency to fight the hypothetical, fight it...
This is a fun question... And my first answer was already disallowed since in this context I do not really think in "up" as much as end of down. So I am one of the ones that would like to see a sharp V shaped decisive bounce. Another possibly annoying tendency will be that I do not really have a "point at which" but rather a range where the confidence begins increasing to a place where it is fairly strong. So I will give that range with a brief explanation. AS WELL AS A PICTURE! WOO!  So I will start by assuming the last V shaped plunge was our decisive bounce, even though I do not feel it had exactly that 3/12/20 sort of vibe I would dump the truck into (like I did back then). Since the top we have created a fairly clear downward channel. I would like to see us: 1. ~40k Break out of that channel at which point hope begins. 2. ~43.2 Overcome the most recent top channel rejection at which point hope is strengthening 3. ~52k Where cAPS feels fairly positive. So translating that into the JJG chart I would see two ways to pinpoint it: 1. An Average which looks to be about your #5 @~46k 2. The top which corresponds with your #7 @ >52k So ultimately I pick 52k I guess... These are also somewhat moving targets. And I think the fundamental landscape is also going to potentially change things. For example Biden's scary "National Security" proclamation is both incredibly bullish (this is a biggest boss fight of them all, in my humble opinion) and scary. Depending on the USGvmt actions a big old bucket of water might be thrown on the fire of any rally... Then things will move around in time and levels... but ultimately Bitcoin still wins. |
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Maybe we all mix predictions with what we want? I still think that it is better to frame a prediction in terms of what you believe to be more likely to happen.. or even if any of us were to say that there is a 38% chance for x, a 30% chance for y and a 32% chance for z, then after we stated that, we might say, I prefer y.. at least we have framed the probabilities before stating the preference, and in that regard, there is a bit less mixing.. or at least you have stated both so we know what is your prediction and what is your preference, no?
This is most certainly true! In fact, I think it is fairly common to COMPLETELY twist what we want to believe with what we think will happen. In the area of markets, this is one thing all the prophets I admire have in common. That they know how to separate their emotions from their view of reality. The tendency to conflate ones wishes and fears with ones beliefs is a thing folks MUST overcome to be successful. And it can be expressed negatively and positively. For example. I think a common mistake people MIGHT be making right now is based in a fear of repeating the last 4 years (again). My conversation with LFC is in this area. Although I think his belief has a rational basis I am also aware that the adherance of this belief may be because of fear. Just as the rejection of this belief may be because of a bias to bullishness. Around here we all know that it is possible to let our fears/hopes get the better of us. Mindrust is often cited. And people have bet the whole farm (or at least a BIG BARN) on an alt with a narrative that resonates for them and lost nearly everything as well. A couple famous WO members come to mind here, but I will refrain from naming them out of respect. So far as the current circumstances go? I am having a hard time separating the likely scenarios from the ones I want (or am afraid of). We are currently at a real crossroads, in a sense. Hanging out right above making a new low. And this "cycle" has already been different in that it had a double top. Not two peaks, but a second peak just a little above the first. That is unique. If we are to fall from here, then we will never have really had the typical "blow off top". I personally think an 80% decline is hard to imagine in the absence of a blow off top. But who knows? The positive scenario is we either make a higher low, or we spike lower but still bounce. Then we make a third top. I also think it would make sense for the market to continue to oscillate at a higher frequency and smaller bandwidth. Shorter waves without blow offs and winters. +175% -45% and so on biased to the upside. Perhaps there are still some halfing related effects, but I expect them to reduce.The above is where my money is. Is it what I *want* to happen? Well sort of, yes. I would not mind the crazy moon rocket too, but I also would not miss the winters.Is it what logic and reason makes me think is going to happen avoiding emotion? Sort of, yes. I do think it is a narrative that actually MAKES SENSE. And could be the way things unfold.Do I feel strongly about it? No.But here's to trains rockets and Carolina for us all... one way or the other. |
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It is indeed a large risk. And with this puppet in office guiding the "free world" I could imagine all sorts of draconian bullshit coming from the west. But it's already game over. The next "dancing guy" country is about to show up. |
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But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily.
I think we’ll see $25,000 too, it might not be until early 2023 though. We’ll bottom above $20,000 & then we’ll start the low climb up as we get close to the halving in 2024 & then transition into the next bull run. We’ll hit over $150,000 in 2025. I could be totally wrong & we moon sooner which would be great. I think we’re in a bear market now though & we’ll have to wait through a crypto winter before we all get girlfriends in 2025. I think this position is EXTREMELY sensible. If we are re-experiencing a cycle pattern like 2017. My soul was also stretched to the breaking point between 2018-2020. But that combined with all the other boom/bust cycles has sort of changed me. Lol. But I think there are reasons things might just be "different this time". 1. Bitcoin is now a huge brand. 2. ONE country is using it 3. Several countries (Turkey, Russia, Iran, etc) are looking at it 4. Large publicly traded companies (including the darling tesla) have put it on balance sheets 5. Normie on ramps 6. Brrrrrr 7. Mining is in great shape. 8. Bil/Millionaires want in. 9. @Jack (just one guy and his co... but this is a super big card in the deck I think...) People KNOW about it, but still a very small # are IN it. It can only dip so low before big money comes in to buy. In fact I guarantee a lot of smart money was edging in between 31k and here just recently. I just don't see how a winter lasting to 2025 is even remotely possible. But a LOT of things could happen... |
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OS: windows 10
GUI: 0.17.3.1
Remote node.
wallet blocks remaining dont can complet.
Maybe try a different node? |
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Okay so, I made this chart where my target was almost 19k however that was the case if BTC drops on that weekly candle itself.Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.  If we take time into consideration for the price to meet the Weekly 200 MA, it will be near about $24k.This changes the price drop from current price from 46% to 30%.  Thanks for reading! I have been doing various things with coffee stirrers and crayons, and ~25k also looks like a good target for the drop from the giant head and shoulders considering it top portion. So I think this theory has some pretty good possibility of happening. Unfortunately that would also paint us a lower low... which seems kind of bad. But at the same time in the current macro environment I could see us springing up from 25k pretty handily. Of course I would still rather see a higher low and a third peak... But, who knows? |
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For some reason I have started arguing with Kurt Wuckert.
I just ended up blocking him. His "I'm rich with a loving family and friends" bullshit was the weakest of sauce when really getting savage with him. The guy probably cries himself to sleep every night. What the hell is wrong with him? I wonder if he kept all the payments made to him as BSV? I do feel like he is losing his mojo a little... |
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