For some reason I have started arguing with Kurt Wuckert. It's amazingly circular and pointless. I wonder how much that guy gets paid... man, And I just rep the truth for free!  |
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Monero ded, pack it up boiz  Hey you wanna ddos minexmr for awhile and shake some of those miners loose.  Fun times! Why do i feel uncomfortable having you back in the thread  Because it's like someone took a dump on the floor when he shows up. But on the other hand I feel like if you went back the last few times he's a good contrary indicator usually... too lazy to go dump-hunting though. |
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BREAKING: The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged for now.
Rumor: 25 basis points each of the next two dates starting March.
So do we buy the rumor or sell the news? Oh yeah. I don't do either of those... I hold the waves.
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Y'all ready for this??? It's gonna get crazy... FAST... in my humble opinion.  I bet the IMF is PISSED. Because they know what's coming. The game theory part of the whole thing is about to kick in to the EXTREME. |
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Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run? There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis. So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet. Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression.... So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it. I think the first simple indicator we need to see to determine a top is in is a simple lower low. Which depending on your interpretation would be somewhere between 29313 and 30k.  I think, unfortunately this is DEFINITELY a non-zero chance scenario. :/ In fact... if we do not see a turnaround from where we are it's a fair certainty. I feel like this is the type of thing John Madden (RIP) would say. "For this team to win they are going to need to get the ball down the field, and score!". Well in this case, for Bitcoin not to go further down, it needs to start going up! Seems to me there are fundamentals that support the go-up scenario... and there are certain events, and some technical reasons we should be prepared for downity as you like to put it. Either way I will be fine, though I admit, a third push to a new ATH would be a nifty new thing to happen "this cycle". |
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Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.  I believe you are invoking Raja's prophesy. |
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 Hard to believe folks... if you ask me. That we are actually watching this happen. Right now. Even though we all believed it the whole time. How many times did we all say "If"? But here's the fly in this particular soup. Will the country with the worlds reserve currency decide to go the wrong direction with laws or regulations BECAUSE our "enemy" embraces Bitcoin? Seems a little too late to me... but I still worry since I live here. ____________________________________________________________________________ Other topic:  |
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Dude there’s more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.
Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.
I already admitted after that post that the chart is completely wrong. I understand your point, thanks for sharing the thread. I am learning Elliot Wave and tried to implement it on the chart.
Cheers!
Thanks for your input, I don't do drugs lmao. Dont take our scoffing too hard. Lol. I mean, that looks like the 5 up 3 down bullmarket plus correction EW graph all right. I just think it would take something catastrophic to make it go like that. The scary bit is we seem to be experiencing a good deal of catastrophe... ;/ |
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Dude there’s more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.
Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.
Had to google Margot Robbie since I do not know celebrities. Woof. OK. I would be willing for Bitcoin to go back down to 800 for you... It would have to come back up really fast. And I am also going to sell my house for the dip. |
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Elliot Wave Theory on BTC at Weekly Time Frame That's some highly refined doom right there. If Proudhon did EW? So, there is this thing I have always seen that has puzzled me about systems like EW, or S2F, or what's the other one with springs etc? For them to be always right they have to be able to overcome fundamentals, and macro forces. Seems to me they are like a ship in a bottle. Pretty to look at, and obviously a ship! But destined to never sail the seas. Take this hypothetical situation. Pandemics, wars, countries adopting Bitcoin, all FIAT currencies being destroyed before our eyes. The markets teetering on the edge of collapse. Really... if that chart comes true under THAT set of circumstances a LOT of people are going to die. Not because of the fact that Bitcoin crashed back down to $800. But that the world got to a place where fundamentally that made any sense at all. See what I am saying? I say consider all theories. And this one, to come true... Oof. |
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OK./ I just like making pictures. In this one we see Bitcoin going up, or down. This is almost a guarantee that it will go entirely sideways!  |
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^^^didn't somebody doxxed it as an Uphold wallet?
I don't know. That an exchange? Or some sort of fund? Still a mighty balance. |
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Two things of note, to me. 2. The price is rising enthusiastically but the volume is NOTHING compared to the drop. This says to me AGAIN that the DROP was participated in by retail investors. But it is most likely that the recovery has been happening over the counter. This means OTC desks are where the buying is, and there is at least more retail involved in the selling. Par for the course.  Are you sure about that? Looking at the CB 3 day chart (as well as BLX index), the ~10% rebound actually had slightly more volume than the ~15% drop, as well as the highest 3D green candle since May 2021 I am sure about very little... but what I am comparing (and it's just by eyeball) is the amount of volume on the way down vs the amount on the way back up. And the selling looks heavier than the buying.... Could be wrong.  I'm not one to look at the 3D chart very often, but I'm aware that instiutions quite like it as a split between the Daily and Weekly charts, especially for mid-week analysis. The yellow line is otherwise the 200 MA, that's rising bullish, on this time-frame things looks fine - pretty good even ironically. Looks to me more like retail selling / short liquidations followed by institutional buying into strong liquidity, just as they like it. But hey, this is just my opinion. I remain bullish at these levels, but I'm also very biased as price remains in a bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows within a macro sized bull flag of consolidation.
Yesterday I saw a video on Tiktok from this Pablo guy (thinks he is Bitcoin Jesus). He is saying that Michael Saylor bought almost all of his Bitcoin in leverage, that he is only the CEO of Microstrategy and that if the others want, they can panic sell all Bitcoins without MS agreeing to it and that he lost trillions in the dot com bubble. I was always suspicious about Michael Saylor, but then again, I never trust rich people.
I have no clue about all this and wonder what you all think about this? Will MS be the new MtGox who will cause the next Bitcoin crash at some point?
Yes.. UnDerDoG81..you seem quite intent upon selling your BTC at the bottom.. and looking for reasons to do so. Lol. A possible mindrust in the making here  Someone has been buy bitcoin for days in lots of 50-100-500 coins each time. (T)He(y) now hold more that Saylor, and at a better price... They have been dumping ~20MM a day in recently. A single address... a single entity (of course could be a group, or corporation). Who is it?  |
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Yesterday I saw a video on Tiktok from this Pablo guy (thinks he is Bitcoin Jesus). He is saying that Michael Saylor bought almost all of his Bitcoin in leverage, that he is only the CEO of Microstrategy and that if the others want, they can panic sell all Bitcoins without MS agreeing to it and that he lost trillions in the dot com bubble. I was always suspicious about Michael Saylor, but then again, I never trust rich people.
I have no clue about all this and wonder what you all think about this? Will MS be the new MtGox who will cause the next Bitcoin crash at some point?
A man on the internet (ie a random fuckwit) said "any old shit" so it must be true. As Jay said just sell all your coins now you don't need an excuse But it wont make you any less stressed out as your fiat will have devalued 30% over next 4 years while you will never afford to buy those bitcoin back. DYOR on MSTR the NASDAQ listed company. Men this place has become so toxic. It was just a question of what others think. But the bashing was predictable. Jay is on my ignore list for a long time already so I ignore his toxic bs... Only a handful members are worth reading their posts nowadays... Internet suicides are always so underwhelming. I wish you the best sir. But I do not see this place as all that toxic... You should have been an a mac vs pc usenet group... or early linux kernel mailing lists. 'Round here people speak their mind and call each other out of their perceived BS... It's not that bad. The point you were making had some merit. Saylor is a great asset to the bitcoin community, but that makes him a powerful point of failure as well. But the point being made back was also good. Since he is the head of a publicly traded company he cannot exactly do a rug pull. And what do you suggest, that he cannot sell when he chooses to just because he has a big position? I want Bitcoin to remain as unregulated as possible. |
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Aren't we already at moon?
Yup. We have gone to the moon, and come back a couple times now... base is under construction. Next expedition is to Mars or Venus, I will guess. And we will probably launch that journey from the moon. Wonder when? |
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Well then. Here we are again... Two things of note, to me. 1. We are knocking on the top of this trough as long as you ignore the crazy woowoo candle that happened on Stamp (I guess some leveraged positions swept) 2. The price is rising enthusiastically but the volume is NOTHING compared to the drop. This says to me AGAIN that the DROP was participated in by retail investors. But it is most likely that the recovery has been happening over the counter. This means OTC desks are where the buying is, and there is at least more retail involved in the selling. Par for the course. |
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and of course it could go to zero tomorrow too. as long as you're cool with that Welcome!
After 12 years we are now a lot closer to moon than to zero. i dunno man my moon is pretty up there. i like BIG numbers not mediocre (even for for ants) numbers. so $35k USD is closer to zero than my moon. Then you're gonna be waiting quite a while. I guarantee it'll take a lot longer for the price to go from $35K to moon, than it did from zero to $35K. That's why everyone that thought we'd be at $100K+ by now got burned bigly.This is what I have been preaching so obviously I agree. Along with the idea that BTC might just surprise us with one more big jolt up. The whole S2F model was predicting the 100k. And I have though the whole time we end up breaking the model one of two ways. Either by a tighter series of smaller tops, and less dramatic bottoms happening at a slightly higher frequency. Or that basic same idea but with one more giant (supercycle-esque) upward push. By the way... the S2F model is NOT broken yet (despite popular belief). Just the 100k by end of year prediction. For it to remain valid at this point we will need to see a third dramatic top in this "cycle". I don;t think it happens that way though. I also think as a corollary those expecting the giant crypto winter or 80-90% drops from the ATH (or even 65-70%) will be disappointed (?) in a similar way. Or that we will be in a bear 'till the next halving. And those predictions have been made here RECENTLY with even the 10k-14k prices mentioned etc. And twitter is COVERED in that talk right now... Here is a recent headline in the normie media! 'Crypto winter' fears send chills to battered Bitcoin faithful https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/crypto-winter-fears-send-chills-to-battered-bitcoin-faithful |
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I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.
The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.
I am sure it has been said several times, since you posted. Most of us will agree you have done something quite smart. But of course it could be a rocky road. Some folks think we will keep going down from here... others think it is a local bottom. Aside from my home, which I own, I have my entire net worth in BTC. It's tricky. If you have 10 thousand dollars it will remain exactly 10k$ for ever, whole goods and services go up in price little by little. With bitcoin you will also have (currently) a little more than .25BTC, but its value in goods and services can go up and down violently as it trends up (the opposite of the USD). So there are two differences. For it's whole life a single bitcoin will buy you more and more over time. Over the long haul. With 300% rises and 70% falls along the way, while the USD is steadily dropping in value, but more smoothly. at ~x%/yr. Though that has recently changed to a faster pace. Anyway. The thing you have to be ready for are the thoughts of "OMG I made a mistake" when it goes down, and strangely also look out for "WOO HOO!! I AM A GENIUS" when it goes up! Every time my wife and I look at property in Hawaii it is generally the top oif the most recent cycle. So I have currently tried to stop doing that... to see if, indeed, it is all my fault every time! Welcome, and best of luck to us all! |
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Relief rally? Or trap before the next bigger dump?
Exactly! |
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A little bit of light on a dim Monday. I feel exactly zero sympathy for this asshole. I feel a little bit for his family. But I watched him personally cheer on the lawsuits coming out of the project he supported.
What he built was so CLOSE to a good idea but based on such a bad idea there was no saving it.
I saw many people saying it didn't matter if CSW was a fraudulent asshole, what was important was the fundamentals. No, the character of people is important. Steer clear of such people as much as you possibly can. *I* may have said something that could be interpreted that way. It's be hard to steer clear of myself. But there is a great deal of nuance there if I did. The sad ruined frog-person who founded Twetch blamed his failure on Calvin and Craig by saying "The tech works, but brand is everything". And I think he is missing the elephant in the room. Because there is no doubt that those two are a major negative for BSV. I believe both of them to be different sorts of frauds. But the fundamental issue is running TWITTER on an immutable database that aims to add more than a whole hard drive per day will end up being run by a centralized group of people, and then those people can conspire to wreck a business like Twetch. I have watched this drama unfold. And I do not know all the details. But it is certain that this guy is on the outs with C&C, and they were pushing him out of the "BSV community". But ultimately I think storing a bunch of shitposts on an immutable database is a HUGE ASS fundamental error. And blaming your failure on a couple d-bags is missing the point. It has nothing to do with brand... it is missing the point of what a blochain is for and ignoring that 16 nodes is not decentralized anymore. C&C aim to get a court order to take Satoshi's coins... lol. The chain has to be centralized to even do that. |
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