Bearish divergences on 2hr RSI now. I think we pull back a bit -- how far we retrace will determine how bullish the picture looks. Not convinced of a bubble/moon situation yet.  |
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Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction. Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]
No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid. The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small. From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time. Irrelevant. Every single bidder that showed up at this auction has funds reserved for a bid of at least 1 lot of 3,000 coins. Many have funds for more, and some for all lots. Many losing bidders will be left without coins. At some point these bidders made the decision to be buyers of Bitcoin. This decision is unlikely to change as a result of this auction. So we can expect most of the buyers to move their bids elsewhere rather than remove them entirely. This is a great deal more purchasing power than is required for the purchase of these <30K coins. However, there will be more coins auctioned by the US government in the future. And there is an OTC market -- only the perma bull case asserts that these buyers need to buy NOW. |
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I imagine price would immediately jump with panic buys and short squeeze, but I think the euphoria may be short-lived. BFX long stats continue to scare me, and fall in line with Coinsight flair count (  ). I think traders and bitcoiners are overwhelmingly bullish, and expects a bubble soon. But what about retail?  |
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Not sure I'm convinced of this rally. Feels like a relief rally. Hidden bearish divergences continue. I could see this going sideways a while, then failing. I think it might be a boring weekend. |
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Virwox is there, but I really don't recommend it. The fees are extremely high, and unless you're just buying a small amount, you won't be happy to find that you might be limited to < $100 purchase at first. CC --> Bitcoin really doesn't work at this point...
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The price will obviously go above the bitstamp average, no way they will sell below that, thats an auction not a sale.
Have you seen some of the prices on seized property/cars auctioned by the government? Bargain basement prices. Not the best comparison here, maybe, but it's not so obvious to me. |
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It depends if you actually wanted to win the auction. If I wanted to win Id put my bid somewhere between $600 and $630.
So you are pretty confident that the coins will be sold above the exchange rate? I can see arguments for both sides, but it's all very murky to me. |
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Buy some dogecoins, buy more bitcoins and wait until you make a nice profit in some months.
Yeah, I don't know about that. I don't doubt that a pump is possible, but DOGE really doesn't have much going for it these days. Be careful with alts, OP... |
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I figure most would go the Virwox route -- high fees and low limits, in order to mitigate the risk of chargebacks. I wonder how well that model works.
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When in doubt, hold. Historically, that has paid off very well. And while $120 doesn't seem like much, it could be worth quite a lot more in due time. Good luck. |
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How come there are people who use Bitcoin but don't know who Jeff Garzik is? Is it because they don't appreciate the technology part of it and only care about the user and business aspects of it? I guess he's been pretty low key on the forums lately, but his name is still all over the source code.
That's why it's surprising that he only managed to keep 348 bitcoins. Seems impossible. I guess maybe he never decided to put much actual investment money into it, perhaps. |
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Honestly, I don't think there is any reliable way to measure the rate of user adoption. Looking at nodes, addresses, etc. miss the mark by a long shot. And the other metrics mentioned don't really address the question.
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It's easy to regret staying put a bear market once you've been mired in it for a long time. Trying to trade it is going to be a bit more hair raising.
More difficult to me is trading this type of sideways. The run-up and correction through February were very volatile, and trends were very easy to follow. With all this sideways and choppiness, it's pretty frustrating trying to stay on top of the trend. |
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Wow, that's too bad. I suppose it's been villainized quite a lot by the media, associated with all sorts of illicit stuff. I was hoping all the good news over the past few months would start to cancel that stuff out.
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I love me some happy hour in the summer time. A couple hours, a bunch of beers, sitting outside while all the fine ladies be walking by in their summer dresses. Who doesn't love summer?  |
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The price is fine for now, but i'll be a little worried if the price fail to rise (and stay) above $600 by July 1st.
Why it was only $420 last month. Now is $595 that is a 45% increase. And last year the price was only $80 It's a matter of holding the trend. The trend started getting real choppy in the high $600s before breaking down -- preferably, after this rebound, we don't stagnate similarly and break downward once again. |
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So are we still waiting for info? Or we can now officially discredit this campaign for being a fraud?
Well, it hasn't actually been a month yet. And the deal was, after the last payout -- monthly payouts. It looks pretty bad, but it's still too early to be claiming fraud, etc. |
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I really don't like the idea of making any BTC non-fungible. That's a really dangerous precedent. If BTC is really money, then this is not an acceptable course of action, IMO.
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If someone was to give you $1000 to invest in any altcoin other than bitcoin what would you buy and why?
doge Doge is the most worthless crap out there. Totally agree. However, one can't be sure it won't see another ridiculous pump-and-dump or two. It has stuck around far longer than I would have thought. That damn meme... |
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Dust is pretty expensive to send, currently. Not worth it, technically. But, when transaction fees are adjusted in the future, this may not be true. And "dust" may refer to amounts another decimal point or two down.
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