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1461  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Can my TSB bank account be closed for trading bitcoins? on: September 07, 2014, 08:09:43 PM
Rant: Since the US government is discouraging cash and other non-bank transactions and forcing people to use banks to make transactions more traceable, then banks should be treated more like utility companies and laws should be changed to disallow banks from closing a person's account without reason.
I'm not sure about the US, but in the UK at least I think we're (slowly) moving in that direction i.e. banking services as a basic right, not to be withheld without good reason.  We have a financial ombudsman service that can help and the courts are always an option.
The US is moving in the opposite direction. An increasing percentage of the population is "unbanked" meaning they do not have a basic bank account and rely on things like check cashing services and money orders to get paid and pay bills.

History's long arc tells a different story.
Once upon a time, payrolls were done in cash.
Make no mistake, despite the increasing number of unbanked, the US is very anti cash at the policy level.
That this increases costs for the unbanked also increases the need for things like bitcoin.

Most payrolls are paid via check or direct deposit, but this is not a policy decision, it is a cost decision by the paying employers as this costs much less verses paying employees by cash. Employees that are paid by check can still cash the check at the issuing bank for free or a small fee.

Unaware or just trolling?  OK I'll bite, there may be some people don't know about the war on cash.

The bank wins when all the money stays in banks.  When it is just the ledger transfer and you never even have the promisorry notes that are used for cash these days.
Banks win because its their money not yours, and you have to ask permission each time you want to use it, and they can always say no, or simply not answer.  If they want to they can lend it out on projects you would hate to invest in, and if they fail, they don't lose, they just replace it with "bail-in" bank stock that they issue.
Government is complicit because banks give them information secretly.  Public is not sure what is conveyed to government or when.  Bitcoin makes this all public, everyone has the same access to the block chain.

Some of the policy decisions in this effort to kill cash include. 
Denominations not keeping up with inflation.
USA largest bill us $100.  This has decreased since the Federal Reserve began.
The largest bill at that time was the $100,000 gold note

There were also $10,000, $5,000, $1000 and $500  (Yes, monopoly money 500 is not "wrong", just old)
Dollars are worth about 2% what they were worth then, so in inflation adjusted terms, that would be a 5 Million dollar bill, and all we have are these puny hundreds.
So denomination diminished 5 orders of magnitude, is your frog boiled yet?

Also, the 10000 non-reportable transaction limit has not tracked inflation
The Border crossing disclosure limits have not tracked inflation.
It is becoming ever increasingly difficult to deal in cash.

Banks are beginning to change policies (at the behest of the regulators) to increase restrictions and monitoring on cash deposits  Chase started a new policy this Spring, they expect others to follow.

Not convinced?  Its not just the USA.  Italy has reduced their cash transaction reporting limit from €2,500 to €1,000. The Italian government would have preferred to set a €500 or even €300 maximum limit but reasoned that it should permit Italians time to adjust to the new limit.  Deputy Finance Minister Vittorio Grilli said as much at a Dec. 5 2013 press conference in Rome.
In Sweden "There are towns where it isn't at all possible anymore to enter a bank and use cash," complains Curt Persson, chairman of Sweden's National Pensioners' Organization.
The deputy governor of the Swedish central bank, Lars Nyberg, gloated before his retirement last year that cash will survive “like the crocodile, even though it may be forced to see its habitat gradually cut back.”

It continues.  The more this happens, the more the world's need for Bitcoin becomes more evident.
1462  Economy / Economics / Re: The Export-Import Bank on: September 06, 2014, 11:44:21 PM
Governments are really bad at managing economies.
When politicians try to do business, business becomes politics.
Both become more corrupt in the process.  

The more "merits" are claimed for how good it is, the more obvious it seems that this is NOT something a government ought to be doing.
If government keeps propping up the too-big-to-fail, the moral hazards compound, the big get bigger, and when the too-big-to-fail do fail, they bring down government along with it.  If that is your goal, carry on.  Its not my bailiwick, just observing the obvious.  I'm perhaps too optimistic thinking that the USA can be saved from itself.
1463  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 06, 2014, 10:09:51 PM
Conspiracy theories only sound ridiculous when there isn't a known conspiracy already taking place.

Fact: In the week or so leading up to the attack, virtually every sock puppet there is was accusing XMR of spreading hate towards BBR and making it look like there was some big fight or rivalry between the coins. It was a very deliberate tactic. Most known XMR holders seem to either not pay attention to BBR at all, or hold BBR as well, and any negativity usually came from off-topic provocation by said trolls.

Fact: Both James and CZ had a recent verbal conflict with XMR supporters/devs.

Fact: Both James and CZ graciously offered support to XMR, in spite of "all the hate" that the XMR community had shown them. What a couple of classy, upstanding individuals.

I'm not making accusations. I'm simply saying that at this point, any suspicion is understandable.

I never understood all the "you XMR guys hate BBR" and vice versa.  It seems divisive, and claiming it creates it where it doesn't exist and intensifies it if it does.

Take a lesson from the politicians.  If you have any confidence, you never even mention the "other guys".  It is only when you are floundering that you go negative.
Rise above this.  Focus on the goal, and that goal does not include tearing down anything you didn't make.  The kid that kicks over the other kids sandcastles is the one that is weak and afraid and needing to appear strong.
1464  Economy / Goods / Re: [WTB] MTG Magic: the Gathering cards on: September 06, 2014, 09:15:31 PM
Do you want any card, or are there some not interesting.
All mine are pretty old, some are heavily played, some pristine, a few are from beta.
1465  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 06, 2014, 09:07:44 PM
But due to incompetence from the authorities, they were allowed to travel.

The authorities have been deliberately flying Ebola carriers around the world for some time now. This isn't incompetence, it's strategy.

You would think if there were an organised and deliberate activity underway, there might be some effect of this?

In 2006, Ebola was identified as an "extinction event" to the WHO if an outbreak went uncontained.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/a-2006-mathematical-model-shows-how-ebola-could-wipe-us-out
1466  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Can my TSB bank account be closed for trading bitcoins? on: September 06, 2014, 08:59:25 PM
Rant: Since the US government is discouraging cash and other non-bank transactions and forcing people to use banks to make transactions more traceable, then banks should be treated more like utility companies and laws should be changed to disallow banks from closing a person's account without reason.
I'm not sure about the US, but in the UK at least I think we're (slowly) moving in that direction i.e. banking services as a basic right, not to be withheld without good reason.  We have a financial ombudsman service that can help and the courts are always an option.
The US is moving in the opposite direction. An increasing percentage of the population is "unbanked" meaning they do not have a basic bank account and rely on things like check cashing services and money orders to get paid and pay bills.

History's long arc tells a different story.
Once upon a time, payrolls were done in cash.
Make no mistake, despite the increasing number of unbanked, the US is very anti cash at the policy level.
That this increases costs for the unbanked also increases the need for things like bitcoin.
1467  Economy / Goods / Re: NEFT Vodka and Bitcoin on: September 06, 2014, 08:54:36 PM


Just going to leave this here.
1468  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 06, 2014, 03:26:43 PM
Further, one of our ICO requirements is identity verification (https://www.poloniex.com/icoRequirements); this requirement exists to protect investors and to lend credibility to the ICO. Despite several attempts to convince James the importance of revealing his identity, we were ultimately unable to reach an agreement that satisfied both parties.

In a commercial exchange, the party that delivers first has the right to know the identity and past history of the other party.  If someone asks you to pay upfront but refuses to identify himself, you should assume he is a scammer, and not have any business with him. 

You are confusing "rights" with "right to negotiate".  Either side can say no for many reasons.
1469  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: September 06, 2014, 03:00:40 PM

I agree re waiting, but by December it should be clear (at least short term), don't you agree?


Not at all.  There is a great deal of psychological research that shows how our human minds try to find patterns that aren't really there.  A fantastic book on this topic is "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman.

IMO, the growth rate for bitcoin would need to decline strongly (or retreat over a long period) to truly invalidate the exponential growth model.  Here's a model that fixes bitcoin's market cap at inception at $500,000.  The "rationale" is that Satoshi spent approximately 2 years building it, and the market-value for Satoshi-level talent is $250,000 / year.  



I'm not arguing for this model, just pointing out that if growth slows to a more modest (but still exponential level), arguments could still be made that we are on trend.  IMO it would take a failure to reach a new ATH by 2017, or a sustained (1 year+) fall below $250, for me to say that "bitcoin growth has halted."  

...

It's so easy to be fooled by randomness.  Here's several simulations of the same underlying exponential growth model.  But instead of solving a regular differential equation to get a smooth exponential curve, I'm solving a stochastic differential equation that adds process noise.  The people in Alternate Universe #1 who get to ride the upper purple curve will think bitcoin is the most fantastic thing!  The people riding the bottom blue curve are going to make up story after story about how it's failing.  But in all cases, the only difference was randomness.  



Significantly more than 2 years, but also 2 years of doing almost nothing else.
1470  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 06, 2014, 02:46:56 PM
You should realize that some of the XMR holders are into anonymity before XMR or BCN even appeared on the scene
Your claim is too small. 
Some were into anonymity decades before Bitcoin appeared on the scene.
1471  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 05, 2014, 09:37:22 PM
Experimental drugs and/or vaccines will likely be available if/when it hits Western nations. The urgency of the research in this field has increased hugely, and it seems like it's not that difficult of a disease to deal with from a biological standpoint.
I also hope it gets contained.

By not so difficult, you mean that there is not really a lot that can be done at this time?
Isolation, monitoring fluids and electrolytes, not so hard yes.

The management of the biological waste, the availability and use of negative air-flow isolation units, and the virulence and risk to medical staff are significantly more difficult than most disorders.
There is also the social factor.  Folks tend to panic.  Medical staff, ambulance drivers (who are not at all equipped for this), sometimes just do not show up.
Even highly trained professionals make mistakes.

The two in Atlanta were handled in a special unit set up by the CDC.  Not every hospital has such units.  There is a lot of effort currently underway to be more prepared, but right now, we very much are not prepared.

If people are thinking that if they can just make it to the USA that they will live, that may cause some problems also.
1472  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 05, 2014, 06:15:06 PM
The president's main job is to take the blame for stuff.
There may be a few things missed but there really wasn't a whole lot that could be done with the tools at hand.
1) no easy way to detect infection
2) no easy way to close the borders from all civilian traffic

Shutting down air traffic is not so hard, but other than that, its open season on mobility.  
There are now military deployments around some infected areas with instructions to shoot and kill people that try to leave.  This isn't really a better situation.  People get desperate, military get infected, it continues.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/09/04/calls-intensify-for-international-military-response-to-ebola/
And it reduces the trust which is a necessary element.

It sounds more like you are looking for what amounts to a totalitarian and militaristic regime which is what it would take to be "competent".  This likely wouldn't have been a lot more effective anyway, it just changes the problems a bit.  The tools and infrastructure just aren't there and aren't going to simply appear when needed.

Of course the CIA will be blamed.  So long as folks see the governments as almighty and cede all responsibility for everything to them, that will continue.  The also blame god.

You can call it stupidity, or incompetence, but it really sounds more like blaming the victims.  Imagine that they are doing the best that they can with the information, knowledge and tools that they have and have the best of good will.  The outcome is pretty much the same.
1473  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 05:59:19 PM
Here is the three-day resolution chart for Dogecoin vs CNY on Bter as presented by BitcoinWisdom. Note what appears to be an upwards breakout of the resistance trendline that I drew from the early 2014 peak.


Breakout on no volume is not significant.
Breakouts happen with volume, at least average volume +50%
The declining volume trend will have to reverse before it will matter.
1474  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 03:09:37 PM
Sometimes more is worse...
Sometimes, just rarely.
One is a single point of failure though.
1475  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Can my TSB bank account be closed for trading bitcoins? on: September 05, 2014, 11:11:46 AM
The banking agreements we sign in the USA give either party (customer or bank) the right to close an account for any reason, or even for no reason.
There is no obligation on either side to provide a reason, and there is strong incentive not to provide a reason for the bank.
Bank policy is typically to provide some notice, but it is not a requirement.
Rant: Since the US government is discouraging cash and other non-bank transactions and forcing people to use banks to make transactions more traceable, then banks should be treated more like utility companies and laws should be changed to disallow banks from closing a person's account without reason.
Yes, though I'd rather see it go the other direction.
Stop discouraging cash and non=bank transactions.
Restoring freedom of association and unbridled right to contract without intermediaries would be nicer.
Bring back the 500 dollar bill and the 1000.
Money keeps getting worth less and the bills keep getting smaller.
The 10000 border limit hasn't changed since it was created despite inflation.
We know the Fed is out of control, and there is no fiscal discipline, but the people get tighter and tighter limites even as they violate theirs with the ever expanding debt ceiling.
1476  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 05, 2014, 05:38:35 AM
AnonyMint you think there will be a one world government who is just dictating the supply of money of all other countries, now that is nuts and something for the tinfoil hat party.

You make insulting accusations while all the evidence points to it is happening at an accelerated pace.

IMF SDRs.
For when too big to fail, fails.
Then they get it all, the one world fiat.
1477  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 05, 2014, 05:16:59 AM
Don't think it will be that high. So far about 2k have died. They are predicting 30k by the end of it.

Unless of course it hits a major metropolis.
Imagine Bangladesh?
Or any city with high mobility, even a place where most folks have cars and such.
Monrovia, Capital of Liberia, has non-stop flights to Brussels, and Casablanca. 
Infrared scanners can check for temperature in travelers, but it can be carried without symptoms for weeks.
1478  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 05, 2014, 05:05:38 AM
damn, the wealther nations should provide more financial assistance in containing this shit. those people are not being fed, what do you expect them to do? starve to death in bed? and if this shit spreads, it will reach the developed nations.

by the way, if they do develop vaccines, what happens when the virus mutates? it'll probably become immune.

Yeah, no, that's not enough.
Money isn't going to solve it.  It will take people, training, infrastructure and bilateral trust if personnel are to be shipped in.  None of those are easily available.
There isn't an airdropped solution that can be bought with a big enough check.
Its not like the CDC is resource constrained, if it were a "national emergency" they can call on whatever they need.
In such case the surgeon general, gets to be a real general:
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/legal/42USC264.pdf
1479  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Buy bitcoin with cash deposits at most banks in the USA with Bitcoin-Brokers on: September 04, 2014, 08:32:01 PM
In case folks hadn't seen it.  The Bitfinex short interest swaps are approaching 10K. 
When this happens, you can expect the whales to start buying to squeeze these shorts.
Buying ahead of a whale is always nice.
http://www.bfxdata.com/combined/btc.php

Check that middle chart, if that red line hits 10MM you can expect more whale buys.
1480  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 04, 2014, 07:15:35 PM
Zero chance of that.  Vaccines take a long time to develop, and then you have to grow, produce, test and distribute them.  Not going to happen within a year even with massive investment.

I heard that a few versions of the vaccines were already being developed prior to this West African outbreak.  But the question is whether the local authorities will use them, without the necessary clinical trials. And we need to remember that West Africa is home to almost 300 million people. Vaccinating all of them against Ebola might be impractical.

Yes.  They are developing vaccines.  They have no idea if any of the ones that they are developing work yet.  When they figure that out, they are still going to have to start mass production.  Even if they already have one that works, knowing which one it is will take some trial and error.  It would be tragic if they started mass production on the wrong ones.  Vaccines can also decrease survival rate as they challenge the immune system and aren't effective immediately. 

Once produced, and tested.  The first effort is going to be to vaccinate the medical staff everywhere.  The population will come afterward.  Then they will have to ring-fence the affected areas in the hope of containing the outbreaks.  This is not likely to succeed everywhere.  We are in for a long haul.
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