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1501  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 03, 2014, 07:24:25 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-ebola-death-toll-at-more-than-1900-who-chief-2014-9

Ebola death toll at more than 1,900: WHO chief

Quote
"As of this week, we are reporting 3,500 cases confirmed in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia and more than 1,900 deaths -- and the outbreak is rising," Margaret Chan told reporters in Washington.

The latest toll represents a significant increase from the 1,552 deaths and 3,069 cases reported by the Geneva-based organization just days ago.

Its not slowing, its still accelerating.
This outbreak has now passed the total for all previous known outbreaks.

Map is from April 2014

Current outbreak trends and projection:
Note: first chart is non-logarithmic, these do not include today's data which continues the trend.


And the projection forward:


Raw data and information is available at http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/ebola/en/
1502  Economy / Economics / Re: The Export-Import Bank on: September 03, 2014, 04:33:43 PM
It regulates how quickly the oversupply comes into the market. The exim bank is able to wait longer to sell the supply of a good so they can price the good appropriately. If a company is forced to sell their product to meet cash/liquidity needs then they would sell their goods at an unwarranted discount.
This sounds like a job for a company, not for a government entity.
Let Overstock do it.  Or let them buy insurance.
If its not a viable business, then its not a viable business.  Let the people do something productive instead.
Taxes ought not be taken by force of law from the widows and orphans to pay for the subsidy of business decision failures by protectionistas.
The markets price goods appropriately, not a government.
1503  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 03, 2014, 04:20:01 PM
Before everyone panics, does anyone have any lawyer friends who could perhaps drop in here and give their opinion?

Personally I love Poloniex and I would hate to see anything happen to them.

edit: https://poloniex.com/icdrequirements

I think it's going to be alright. Poloniex knows what they're doing.

I mean it's quite possible it's as simple as using the right language. Notice Poloniex refers to it only as "Initial Coin Distribution".

Poloniex is registered with USA FINCen nationally as an MSB in the state of Montana.
If they stay in compliance, and don't get in hot water with the SEC, they should be OK unless the legal landscape changes.
1504  Bitcoin / Meetups / Re: announcement: the international "when-bitcoin-reaches 1000,- $ party" on: September 03, 2014, 03:14:57 PM
Maybe it was a mistake to tie the party to a certain price tag. It would have been better to just pick a date and then plan for that date regardless of the bitcoin price. Could be an anniversary (Genesis-block release for example). This way both the people organizing and the attendees can plan much better.

Maybe someone else will pick up the idea.

ya.ya.yo!

It might be a nice event to hold at the Bitcoin Castle in Estonia.


The location can be made available for such things at any time.

As the owner of the Bitcoin Castle, I reaffirm that we can hold the party right away, or at any later time.

The castle compound features 50-80 rooms, of which 12 are currently in use as bedrooms, with the capacity of up to 30 people. If we throw common decency out of the window, up to hundreds of people can be lodged indoors as long as it is not too cold. The place has already been a venue for several memorable Bitcoin events, including the Day Zero party, Supernode III and Summer Retreat. The Autumn Retreat will commence in Sept 23. More pics.

What are you waiting for? Set it up! Don't make it a party about Bitcoin price. That was always silly to me. Bitcoin is too volatile. That's like painting a red circle the size of a marble on a basketball court and trying to bounce a tennis ball in it from across court. Just make it a party because the name of that day ends in a y. Some Saturday is good so people have a chance to fly in on Friday.

There are regular gatherings at the Castle, about every few weeks.  I've been and was involved in setting up that one.
It is a perpetual crypto currency conference center, and the Dom Perignon and Cigars were plentiful.  
There is a sort of magic there.  The kind of thing that happens when EVERYONE around you understands that special thing that occupies most of your waking thoughts.
All the help, the cooks, the chauffeurs, the bartender, and especially the other guests, everyone have a solid understanding of Bitcoin.
It is unique in all the world for that alone.
Add to this, ITS A FREAKING CASTLE that has protected the countryside for many hundreds of years.  Its history is deep, and its future is assured by the success of cryptocurrencies.

I keep informed about the regularly scheduled gatherings there, and try to attend if there are particular people with whom I would want to spend an idle hour walking the gardens, taking a sauna or jacuzzi or sharing a breakfast or dinner.  I really want to go to all of them, but that would take moving in.

PM Rpietilla to get on the announcement list.
1505  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 03, 2014, 03:04:49 PM
they insist into calling coins.

Yes, none of the discussion about coins has much to do with coins at all.
I'm with you, but its not a fight I want to take on. 
The language is fluid and the nomenclature deep.  We lost that word, its meaning diluted.  The coin is dead, long live the coin.
1506  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 03, 2014, 02:49:00 PM
Tuberculosis is bacterial, not viral.  Virus is vastly simpler organism, with different resulting immunology.

I was just giving out an example. What about the Influenza virus (Orthomyxoviridae)? They mutate so often that the influenza vaccines need to be re-invented every one year or so. Even the Ebola virus itself mutates very frequently. I will disagree with you on the second part. Virus is by no means a simple organism. It is much difficult to study a virus, than doing the same on a bacteria.

Virus is a vastly more simple organism than bacteria.  
They have no metabolic function, maybe not "alive" depending on the definition of life.  So how to kill what may not be alive can be problematic.
What you mean by difficulty of your study though is a bit perplexing.  
Is your point, by way of example, that it may be difficult to study the number 4, just because it is not more complex?  Or just because it is smaller?
If there was a word to argue with, I'd have thought it would have been "organism" rather than "simple".
A virus doesn't have organs or even organelles really, hardly even an organism.
1507  Bitcoin / Meetups / Re: announcement: the international "when-bitcoin-reaches 1000,- $ party" on: September 03, 2014, 02:26:35 PM
Maybe it was a mistake to tie the party to a certain price tag. It would have been better to just pick a date and then plan for that date regardless of the bitcoin price. Could be an anniversary (Genesis-block release for example). This way both the people organizing and the attendees can plan much better.

Maybe someone else will pick up the idea.

ya.ya.yo!

It might be a nice event to hold at the Bitcoin Castle in Estonia.


The location can be made available for such things at any time.
1508  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 03, 2014, 02:22:10 PM
In case of HIV, for example, combined treatment with 2 or 3 different drugs (Lamivudine, Zidovudine and Phosphazidum) is able to stop virtually any kind of resistance mutations. But if you will try to use one drug, then resistance for this drug will be developed in matter of months.

Remember what happened with Tuberculosis. Due to the rampant misuse of antibiotics, various drug resistant strains are now rife in many parts of the world, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. First we had the Multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB). That progressed to Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB). And now we are hearing about Totally drug-resistant tuberculosis (TDR TB). The same can happen with HIV, and other viral diseases such as Ebola. 

Tuberculosis is bacterial, not viral.  Virus is vastly simpler organism, with different resulting immunology.
1509  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 03, 2014, 02:11:42 PM
You are thinking maybe about antibiotics?
Natural selection works in the same way for virus, bacteria or mice Smiley
Perhaps, but treatments and immunology diverge for bacteria and virus.
This was referencing the point you made about the treatment being incomplete.
In case of HIV, for example, parallel treatment with 2 or 3 different drugs (Lamivudine, Zidovudine and Phosphazidum) is able to stop virtually any kind resistance mutations. But if you will try to use one drug, then resistance for this drug will be developed in matter of months.
There is no such treatment currently for ebola virus, so this is theoretical.  
The treatment is primarily for the resulting hemorrhagic fever and is fluid replacement, electrolytes sodium and potassium hygenic isolation and palliative care.
There is insufficient evidence to suggest that any of the antiviral treatments are either helpful or harmful to the infected.

There is much ado about providing these largely non-existing antivirals to all who ask.  They may simply hasten death, or create more resistant strains.  The two Americans basically became lab rats.  Such labs aren't in the places where this virus strikes.

Attempts to set them up have been met with some hostility including looting and threats including stealing infected bedding and material that was then distributed among the looters and sold.  Very tragic.

The amount of sterilization required to treat a single "human lab rat" is massive and disposing of the infected material is an exacting process.  To do this in the field is going to take infrastructure and education.  Its not a quick fix air drop type assistance..  There is deep distrust of foreign medicine incursion.

Quote
The Minister of the Ministry of Information, Cultural Affairs and Tourism (MICAT), Lewis G. Brown, has disclosed that four of the protesters, who recently broke into and ransacked the Ebola Quarantine Center in the West Point Township, have been tested positive of the Ebola virus.
The protesters, who said there was no Ebola in Liberia, stormed and ransacked the Ebola Quarantine Center and made away with bloodstained mattresses and bed sheets after chasing away patients who were quarantined there.

Two Japanese possibly infected, relocated to Moldova (near Ukraine):
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/747222
1510  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 03, 2014, 09:52:36 AM
It takes less than 10 virus to infect a person.
Only if there is no suitable antibodies. On the background of the ongoing infection there is no difference between 1 or 1000000 in terms of natural selection. Because virus is attacked by two vectors while probability of two lucky mutations is extremely low.

If a treatment kills 999,999 out of 1,000000 virus, the remaining one in a million may have survived do to better resistance to that treatment. 
One remaining will be destroyed by antibodies.

Resistant strains selection is usually possible only when treatment has been applied inappropriately. Too low doses or early end of treatment, for example.

You are thinking maybe about antibiotics?

Cross strain immunity ebola has not yet been established in the wild.  There have been attempts to create it in the lab for creating vaccines.
http://www.virologyj.com/content/9/1/32
It is one of the things the WHO hope to learn and have asked the cured Americans to continue as outpatients.

Of the 5 strains, very possibly they have a common ancestor.

Quote
Ebola survivors develop antibodies against the virus and they also develop cell-mediated immunity.
“In general, the finding is it’s basically like being immunised-it would be unusual to get infection with the same strain. We are still evaluating that in our two patients.
Cross-protection is not quite as robust. There are five strains of Ebola viruses. Even though that data is not great, the feeling is there is potential for being infected if you go to a different part of Africa and get exposed to a different strain.
Ribner said the two survivors would be followed as outpatients, and as part of evaluation. “They have agreed to undergo additional testing so we can better understand immunity to Ebola virus. We are meeting with them periodically.
1511  Other / Meta / Re: BadBear on: September 03, 2014, 09:39:50 AM
You may need two different threads, using the one now in the Service announcement section for the announcements, and another in the Service discussion section for discussion of the service.
Fixed that for you.
Thank you for the precision.
That answer seems clear. 
Two threads, interlink and reference as appropriate but don't cross-post.
1512  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 03, 2014, 09:34:04 AM
This may be a dumb question, but I'm genuinely curious why people put up huge ask/bid orders far beyond where the price will likely go in the near future. For example, the 18,000 XMR sell order at 0.008 on poloniex. Beyond the obvious reasons, what are they hoping to accomplish?
Possibly hoping to accomplish selling them for 144 BTC at some time.
Some folks like to have all their coins up for sale/purchase just in case.
1513  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 03, 2014, 09:10:00 AM

Add 'ogle' and 'goggle' to your vocabulary.

Yahoo sounds like a rude degenerate person who flings poo from a tree.

Yahoo is an exclamation of delight. Perhaps it is more well known in the USA. We used to yell it as kids before or after we did some exciting thing such as jump off buildings.

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/yahoo

http://www.learnersdictionary.com/definition/yahoo

Both definitions, the noun and the interjection, are well known and popular.
Apparently not always both to the same people.
The rude noun is the older usage of the two predating the celebratory interjection by about 150 years, the interjection not arriving in literature until the 1870s.

1514  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 03, 2014, 08:54:39 AM
surviving. This means that as the strains of the virus change and mutate they will likely be immune to antibiotics. (your have sound logic, but it is just bad for society).

Actually they do not even need to mutate, antibiotics can not kill viruses.
The fact that there is not known cure to ebola is certainly not a good thing.

Viruses are generally not able to mutate so quickly that as soon as antibiotics/vaccines are developed and distributed they are able to "fight" the treatment immediately. This type of evolution takes time, usually something like this would occur over several years, to decades, not over the course of a few weeks/months.

Usually true.
The viral load created by an ebola infection is massive, it replicates very rapidly, many generations in the few week it takes to kill someone.
It takes less than 10 virus to infect a person.
If a treatment kills 999,999 out of 1,000000 virus, the remaining one in a million may have survived do to better resistance to that treatment. 
There are 5 known strains, all deadly to humans.
1515  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread on: September 03, 2014, 04:41:31 AM
I would very much like a payment gateway which enables me to transparently use XMR, to send to a BTC address, and to receive BTC in the form of XMR.   It's a relatively simply thing to implement, and makes it more practical to save primarily in XMR.
Implement it. I would run it for the community as stable clearnet service and HS, to support the community/ecology.
(In normal TX limits. I dont have super much BTC or XMR.)

This is pretty much just an exchange API, yes?  Are you comfortable with the poloniex pricing used for it?
1516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 03, 2014, 02:11:12 AM
Aha.  OK, I get it.

Man, I get nervous when shorts go up around 8k because I assume I am not on the right end of information asymmetry.

I don't really care all that much about the current price, but a little run up might be nice.

In such circumstances, you should have the opposite emotion, or even better, no emotion.
Options contracts are a contrary indicator. 
The more options bought against your position, the better you position is.
Think about it.  After you do, if you still don't get it, let us know and we can break it down or find a link for you.
1517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: September 03, 2014, 01:41:39 AM
What happened to the shorts vs usd swaps chart?

looks like an opportunity to me:


I feel like a 3rd grader, but can you tell me what you see as an opportunity?  All I can get out of that is spaghetti.  You seem to be good at explaining things to non-trolls and I assure you, I am here to learn.

I think cypherdoc suggest to try to squeeze those shorts (represented by the red "BTC Swaps", the amount of BTC borrowed by people (and probably sold opening a short position). If we buy BTC hard enough - driving the price up - these shorts might be forcibly liquidated (the borrowed BTC bought back from the market) by the bitfinex platform to protect the lenders, which would drive the price up even more, maybe effecting a cascade.


Or put more simply.
No one that bought BTC when swaps were over 10K lost money.
So if that thin red line hits 10K, mortgage the house and buy bitcoin.
1518  Other / Off-topic / Re: Fun facts on: September 03, 2014, 01:22:02 AM
“Why do people say "grow some balls"? Balls are weak and sensitive. If you wanna be tough, grow a vagina. Those things can take a pounding.”
― Betty White

This is not a Betty White quote, it is misattributed likely for additional humorous intent.
In fact, Betty White has denied every saying it.
http://thedamienzone.com/2011/10/05/betty-white-facebook-hoax-about-balls-and-vaginas/

The joke was instead made by Sheng Wang, at the end of this clip which predates any appearance of attribution to Betty White:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8QKGwb3c5I&feature=player_embedded

Please take this correction in the spirit in which it is intended, Betty is a good woman, one of the hardest working people in Hollywood, but this is outside her brand and she disavows it.
1519  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: September 02, 2014, 01:45:22 PM
More ebola news, still spreading I wonder how long until the initial stages of transmission end.
Two new cases of Ebola reported in Democratic Republic of Congo
http://www.vox.com/2014/8/24/6063027/ebola-virus-found-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo

According a virological analysis the outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo is a distinct and independent event, with no relationship to the outbreak in west Africa:

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/2-september-2014/en/

This would actually be a worse case, than if it were related.


If you aren't in Africa and aren't going there, there are still some questions to consider:
Will you be able to manage your social isolation if needed?
What will be the trigger for you to know when it is needed and engage in self-quarantining?
Do you have enough Zombie apocalypse movies to watch, or is the news enough?

You do NOT want to go to a hospital if this is anywhere near your area.
Ebola is the killer of the medical profession.  Medical personnel are 1/10th the dead.
Worldwide there are about 13 doctors per 10000 people or about 1 for every 770 people.
1520  Other / Meta / Re: BadBear on: September 02, 2014, 04:32:08 AM
You may need two different threads, using the one now in the Announcement section for the announcements, and another in the service section for discussion of the service.
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