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1561  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Anyone following the ebola outbreak? on: August 15, 2014, 08:53:21 PM
http://ewn.co.za/2014/08/14/Korean-Air-suspends-flights-to-Kenya-over-Ebola-concerns
Korea seems more concerned.
1562  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Vote: Fix the BitLicense on: August 15, 2014, 02:34:37 PM
Can anyone summarize what's going on with this bitlicense.  I see references to coinbase (a california company) and some kind of state or local laws, also something about personal information.  Is this having to do with a software license?

Coinbase is pretending the bitlicense regulation has passed already and is voluntarily collecting all of their buyers' information (which is why I stopped buying bitcoin from them).

Put simply, BitLicense would make anybody who deals with bitcoin anywhere in the world have to register their personal information with the state of New York. Bitcoin merchants would have to pay a fee and apply for a license to exchange bitcoin, unless you're a giant megabank already, in which case you are exempt from having to pay the licensing fee.

Interesting.  However, the fact that apparantly it's a New York State law means that it would realy only be enforcable upon businesses located or headquartered in NY.  Right?

Its a proposal not a law, made by an unelected noob politico on the take from lobbyists.
The lobbyist writes the proposal, hands it to the noob politico over lobster on their yacht, and laskys job is to try to make it stick.
He gets out of doing any real thought on the matter, gets the press all riled up and makes a name for himself as the protector of TPTB.
1563  Other / Off-topic / Re: Do girls use Bitcoin ? on: August 15, 2014, 02:16:30 PM
Bitcoin is the next diamond so waiting for that day when a boy virtually proposes to a girl by giving a big bitcoin. Cool Cool
"A block chain transaction is forever"
And blood free mining.
Debeers, eat your heart out.
1564  Economy / Economics / Re: STOP SELLING NOW!! URGENT CALL TO BITSTAMPERS AROUND THE WORLD on: August 15, 2014, 09:00:13 AM
This sort of begging probably would encourage selling more than buying. 
Sounds like panic more than confidence.
Why worry about bitcoin price?  It is what it is.
1565  Economy / Economics / Re: The Export-Import Bank on: August 15, 2014, 08:56:37 AM
Should it stay or should it go? It is little more than thinly disguised corporate welfare.

It should go. Its just another market distorting corporate subsidy at taxpayer expense.
If it were to go wouldn't it put American companies (and the US economy) at a competitive disadvantage? Hint: the answer is yes because most other industrialized countries have similar subsidies. The result of shutting the ex-im bank would be that the US economy would grow less then it otherwise would and jobs would be relocated overseas that would otherwise be competitive in the US.

Just because other countries tax their people in order to sell things to us at under-market prices, we should that favor in return?
Is the goal is to move manufacturing into this country in those industries so that we can get the secrets of foreign production techniques?
Is there a special interest for subsidizing a particular industry at the expense of all the others for strategic reasons?
If we don't do this then our companies will be at an international disadvantage. if they are at a disadvantage like this then they would need to employ less people, which would shrink the tax base. if the tax base is less then in order to collect the same tax revenue overall tax rates will need to rise.
Doing it also puts "our" companies at an international disadvantage.
It marries them to the state, making them dependent on subsidy so fatter and lazier than needed.  That it does so by killing off other companies that would have survived but for the marginal tax to support the favored few (minus the losses by running it through the bureaucracy) is a bit of economic self destruction.

Doing this sort of thing does accomplish something, it creates the new industry of government begging for the folks that lobby for these handouts.  GDP measures that as a plus, but it oughtn't.  It produces nothing.
1566  Other / Off-topic / Re: Do girls use Bitcoin ? on: August 15, 2014, 08:37:17 AM
In Beverly Hills, the women get their nails done, and pay and tip with bitcoin.

1567  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Vote: Fix the BitLicense on: August 14, 2014, 07:02:48 PM
Is this "fix" like the NYC slang?
Guido da plumber gonna go fix them iffn day don pay.

That may be the only way to "fix" this.  It is broken in so many ways.
1568  Economy / Economics / Re: The Export-Import Bank on: August 14, 2014, 07:00:19 PM
Should it stay or should it go? It is little more than thinly disguised corporate welfare.

It should go. Its just another market distorting corporate subsidy at taxpayer expense.
If it were to go wouldn't it put American companies (and the US economy) at a competitive disadvantage? Hint: the answer is yes because most other industrialized countries have similar subsidies. The result of shutting the ex-im bank would be that the US economy would grow less then it otherwise would and jobs would be relocated overseas that would otherwise be competitive in the US.

Just because other countries tax their people in order to sell things to us at under-market prices, we should that favor in return?
Is the goal is to move manufacturing into this country in those industries so that we can get the secrets of foreign production techniques?
Is there a special interest for subsidizing a particular industry at the expense of all the others for strategic reasons?
1569  Economy / Collectibles / Re: A new 2-sided Bitcoin Keychain on: August 14, 2014, 06:37:37 PM
Not just trustworthy.
Smart and kind as well.
(The keychains are also very cool.)
Now you're making me blush! But thanks… And I still have some cards waiting for you!

I'll be in town this weekend.
1570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 14, 2014, 06:28:12 PM
TL;DR

let´s get back to WALL OBSERVING plz  Smiley



Those are some nice walls....
1571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 14, 2014, 06:21:49 PM
here's your golden opportunity to buy Bitcoin.
Its well under half an ounce of gold.
Take advantage.
1572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 14, 2014, 06:19:21 PM
Final capitulations are the sweetest buying opportunities. You would probably never have heard of me, unless I happened to analyze the fundamentals and charts for month, before buying in at the final capitulation of 2011.

The more ppl speak like you (and the less they speak like me  Cheesy) the better, because that much closer to the bottom we are.

But real tough guys can make the decision without sentiment analysis as well as with it. I hardly knew about the forums back then, even my account is from 2012.

It is the new money that will raise the price to new levels. They are still waiting. What can you do but wait? Next room to me now, there is a guy who takes jacuzzi every day and smokes cigars. He held through the bubble, and the fall, and the capitulation (of 2011) and ever since. His friends sold out in the downtrend and said they will come back if/when the tide turns. They never did. They are probably working now.

Bitcoin does not care if you make money or not. Also I don't care. I know there are enough people in the world who understand reasonable speech, and gravitate into Bitcoin in waves. And if bitcoin is foiled, now we have Monero, so there is a real backup, vainly sought after for 2-3 years.

The waiters came to ask what I want for breakfast, and roasted liver with red wine sounded like nice. Thank you for listening.




I like what you did there, pouring oil on fire  Cheesy

I beg to disagree Smiley Casually dropping some info about your at-noon breakfast of roasted liver with wine, in the middle of a capitulation that'll cost quite a few investors dearly, is the real oil-on-fire. Which is why I got the Marie Antoinette association.

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

I think Risto's point is that we can all "eat cake" too is we just hold and don't panic (or buy during this great opportunities to do so if possible).

Maybe I am strange but I find his words quite comforting.  To be able to drink a glass of wine with no worries to what Bitcoin is doing at the present impressive, especially when it is so easy to get emotional about it.  But I am admittedly a huge fan of Risto.  Of all the people on the thread he has been the most helpful to me, and generous too. Smiley

There is NOTHING wrong with being appreciative of the contributions of Risto or anyone else for that matter, and I get your point that he may have NOT meant to be pompous in his presentation of that situation.

 NONETHELESS, he does have some flaws... especially in the hooty-tooty tone arena... from time to time...

Having said all that, I appreciate his contributions, too....  but I also think that it helps for the survival of bitcoin to have people like Risto (who have profited in the past from BTC) to invest back in to BTC in order to help build a better and stronger BTC infrastructure in order that newcomers can become acquainted and comfortable with BTC space.

If and when we have castles of our own how will people react to us? Will they think we are pompous jerks just because of that alone?  I think sometimes just being wealthy, successful, or in a different situation in life is enough to cause envy and see things that are not necessarily there, or can be construed to be that way. 

For example, I live in a pretty wealthy area in California, but would still be considered "middle class."  I find that those that are wealthy are often considered "pompous" just because they have nice houses and cars.  Some even consider my husband and I "rich" and although it seems totally ridiculous to us, think we are "snobby" because of where we live.  Of course we know in our neighborhood we are just average.  But I have learned that we see others through our own lens of our experiences and we need to step back and consider where the other person is coming from.

That said, I don't think Risto is ever really trying to be pompous.  He may have a little fun with the successes he has had and post a comment here and there about it, but I think his heart is one that wants to encourage us not to "throw in the towel" so to speak and hold on or buy more coins and try to see the big picture. He has been in this a bit longer than many of us have and has reaped the rewards that could well be ours too if we just show a little patience and self-control.

Alll  weee  is saaaaaing,   is give Bitcoin a chance.

1573  Economy / Collectibles / Re: A new 2-sided Bitcoin Keychain on: August 12, 2014, 07:49:03 PM
These key chains are awesome. I've got one and had several people comment "oh you do bitcoin". Great convo starter, and I can 100% say that I trust Bitpappa.

Thanks! Yes, I've heard some amazing stories about Bitcoin conversations starting, due to a simple keychain. Glad you've had that happen.

Not just trustworthy.
Smart and kind as well.
(The keychains are also very cool.)
1574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 12, 2014, 07:44:12 PM
here's one i was going to pass over.  another old dude that gets it.  he actually taught me something:

"Capitalism is deflationary".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9hb0EKAcro&feature=youtu.be

Don't make me go there.

Too late...
"Time is deflationary." - NL

Wink
1575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 07, 2014, 02:32:28 AM
Say the situation where a miner includes n transactions in a block or n+1 is equivalent in cost*.
This situation does not exist.

The cost is very real and not-insubstantial - the increased orphan risk which you completely glossed over above.

The marginal cost can - and should - be brought very low but it will never reach zero.

The amount of transactions a miner can process in a ten minute interval is finite, therefore it is scarce, therefore the service of including transactions in a block will always have a price.

QFT!
The marginal cost decreases with the block reward proportionate to the mining fee.
So while the n vs n+1 will never be equivalent, they should be expected to increasingly approach the risk/reward for orphaning.
This should then also be expected to increase the desirability of including the n+1 transaction in the block.

At some future time the transaction fees may be more than the block rewards, as block sizes increase and the block rewards decrease.
This future time will likely be after a much longer term bitcoin price stability than anything in its history.  This may well be for younger people than I to observe.  
So far, bitcoin valuation has increased so much faster than block rewards decrease, and so transaction fees have decreased faster than block rewards.  We should not expect this to be true forever, just for a long time to come, and also for block sizes to increment over time.

tl;dr The protocol works very well and these considerations are baked in.  Bitcoin is quite secure in this regard.
1576  Economy / Economics / Re: The Export-Import Bank on: August 07, 2014, 01:57:20 AM
Is the argument that if the other guys do it the USA should also do it?
Is it wrong for the other guys to do it?
From the position of a free market advocate, the answer might be "yes it is wrong for government to skew a market", from a planned economy advocate the answer might be "No central planning is good".
The next question would be:  How strong are those principles?

If the principles are strong, and the other guys coddle an industry, will the uncoddled survive and improve due to the difficulty?  If you are the pragmatist, there is your risk reward calculus simplified.  If you are the idealist, you already have your answer before the question is asked.

Political action often has the opposite of its intended effect over different time scales.
Recall the plan to provide for more home ownership by mandating the relaxing of loan qualifications?
1577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 05, 2014, 08:21:49 PM
it looks to me that mining would be best described as being in a Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium - cypherdoc
Highlights are mine:


"A pure strategy Nash equilibrium is a profile of strategies such that each player’s (miner's) strategy is a best response ((results in the highest available payoff (block reward)) against the equilibrium strategies of the other players (miners).

A pure strategy Nash equilibrium only requires that the action taken by each agent (miner) be best against the actual equilibrium actions taken by the other players (miners), and not necessarily against all possible actions of the other players (miners). In other words, it's expected for some miners to be malicious.

A Nash equilibrium has the nice property that it is stable: if each player expects 'a' to be the profile of actions played, then no player (miner) has any incentive to change his or her action (no incentive to start cheating). In other words, no player (miner) regrets having played the action that he or she played in a Nash equilibrium.
"

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1968579

Nice. I hadn't looked at it that way but it makes perfect sense.


Nash equilibrium works well in theory, the real world is a little more messy.
Pre-mass adoption there are so many outside interests seeking bitcoin failure that there are other incentives at play.
Once there is more distribution and buy in, the full effects of the Nash Equilibrium will be much stronger than they are today.



the Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of a non-cooperative game; therefore, i think the Nash Equilibrium takes those hostile actors into account.  the minimum # of participants required to apply the theory is 2 and doesn't depend on large #'s.  what's also important for all actors to know and understand, and to know that the others know, is that the longest blockchain and the POW required to construct it is mathematically immutable. b/c we know that the hashrate of the Bitcoin Network is thousands of times larger than most of the supercomputers on Earth makes the strategical decision making of each individual actor clear; don't cheat.

Understood, I'm more referring to the folks that are the non-participants in the game.  Lest we forget these currently vastly outnumber the participants with respect to potential game resources available to them.  Game-ending scenarios are often dismissed as impossible when in fact they are merely unlikely, as are the application of non-monetary/computing power factors.  Threats to date have generally been within the game players, and Nash applies well.

In general I not only agree but the also salute the application of the principle.  

Consider however the implications if one were to throw something like stuxnet into the works or a fab level exploit into each of the main chip makers, say by coercion or covertly, and subsequently activated?  There are defenses certainly, but it would be disruptive and could be timed with other types of interference.  Unlikely but possible.  Thankfully, we are not under serious attack or opposition, but I'd still give a BTC =~ 0 a >0 p value, and Nash holds the rest in place.
1578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 05, 2014, 01:24:17 AM
it looks to me that mining would be best described as being in a Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium - cypherdoc
Highlights are mine:


"A pure strategy Nash equilibrium is a profile of strategies such that each player’s (miner's) strategy is a best response ((results in the highest available payoff (block reward)) against the equilibrium strategies of the other players (miners).

A pure strategy Nash equilibrium only requires that the action taken by each agent (miner) be best against the actual equilibrium actions taken by the other players (miners), and not necessarily against all possible actions of the other players (miners). In other words, it's expected for some miners to be malicious.

A Nash equilibrium has the nice property that it is stable: if each player expects 'a' to be the profile of actions played, then no player (miner) has any incentive to change his or her action (no incentive to start cheating). In other words, no player (miner) regrets having played the action that he or she played in a Nash equilibrium.
"

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1968579

Nice. I hadn't looked at it that way but it makes perfect sense.


Nash equilibrium works well in theory, the real world is a little more messy.
Pre-mass adoption there are so many outside interests seeking bitcoin failure that there are other incentives at play.
Once there is more distribution and buy in, the full effects of the Nash Equilibrium will be much stronger than they are today.
1579  Other / Off-topic / Re: The happy BTC circular donation thread on: August 04, 2014, 04:18:32 PM
One of the gems of this forum.
The opportunities for gratitude is often overlooked.
With this, we were given a chance to say a meaningful THANK YOU to those that have make great leaps and small steps toward increasing individual freedom.
So a double THANK YOU to Rpietila for spreading the chance to offer thanks.
There are so many who have done so much that goes unrecognized.  Providing some recognition is good for you too.
Its been said that money can't buy happiness, but there is a way that it can do so.

Some studies show that giving is the best bargain for happiness with money:
http://www.businessinsider.com/money-can-buy-happiness-2014-4
1580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: August 04, 2014, 04:58:22 AM

Bitcoin Specie project has been doing it, for real, with silver for quite a while now.
Gold will be added soonish.
http://coldhardca.sh
The higher the volume, the lower the premium and closer to the spot alloy price.

How do I buy the silver from them ?   Its not a backing as such I guess, they are offering to sell.  Main problem is usually postage and customs.    I'd change my mind if the Perth mint allowed depositbullion to be purchased in bitcoin and then it would be useful to be.  One day I could go collect it even, ruling out delivery problems

Its available direct in quantity, or through many of the bitcoin bullion sellers.  Most also offer international shipping.
Vaulting is available at the mint by custom agreement.

Agora Commodities in US
https://agoracommodities.com/product/silver-bitcoin-specie/

HardBTC.org in UK
http://hardbtc.org/ocart/index.php?route=product/category&path=64

Bitgild.com in NL
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