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2041  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 11, 2016, 10:23:49 PM
...

Well, it looks like gold will not close down for the quarter after today's majestic move up some $50.



I certainly concede that gold could get slaughtered in the days ahead.  But, today's move (and reports of people lined up around the block to buy gold in London) hint that gold is becoming more attractive to the masses.  Physical gold that is.
2042  Economy / Economics / Gold KILLED all else today on: February 11, 2016, 10:15:48 PM
...

Gold was up about $50 today, a huge move (~4%) in one day.





Stocks were way down worldwide.  It will be fun to see Japan's Nikkei tomorrow (tonight USA) and China on Monday when they return from their New Year's.  

Oil was crushed.

Lined up in London to buy physical:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/12151770/Investors-go-bananas-for-gold-bars-as-global-stock-markets-tumble.html

And a long weekend coming up......

2043  Economy / Speculation / Re: Returning to gold standard? on: February 09, 2016, 07:17:28 AM
...

I don't know much of the below, but I strongly suspect that these (below) points are true.  Further, that hardly anyone knows one way or the other, not any of you, not me.  All countries are secretive to one degree or other (for security reasons) about where their gold is, how it is transported, etc.  If you dig hard enough, you can verify what I write yourselves.

1)  Ft Knox probably DOES hold most of the ~8100 tonnes of US gold.  Most of it as 90% Au (coin melt).  This is our National Gold.  Smaller amounts are also held at the Denver, San Francisco and West Point mints.  A relatively small amount (400 tonnes or so) is held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), in the basement there in Manhattan.  

2)  The FRBNY mostly holds gold for other governments' central banks, although the FRBNY does hold the +/- 400 tonnes of US gold mentioned just above.  The FRBNY stores it for free.  The total is (was 2014 or so) some 7000 tonnes in storage.  Most of that gold at the FRBNY was sent to NYC after WWII when Europe was worried about a Soviet invasion (and losing their gold).  Germany has been taking some of it back, as far as I know, they made an Agreement with the FRBNY (possibly the USG as well) to take down their holdings to a lower level.  This Agreement is well-known, just dig!  Why the FRBNY?  Convenience for gold trading as well as safety from the ex-USSR.  Check out the FRBNY's brochure of their gold vault here: https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/goldvault.html  They offer tours, but you have to book WAY in advance.  (I would like to go on the tour next time I am in NYC)

3)  Germany has not opened their gold holdings to public viewing, including the amounts they brought back recently from NYC (also some from Paris).  Their own experts are checking the bars.  (Koos Jansen is up on this, he is trying to get the bar numbers to see if they are EXACTLY what Germany sent over before, or other bars...).

In general, I would suggest that the Conspiracy Gold Theories are unlikely to accurately reflect reality.  "Yamashita's Gold" for example is complete hogwash, see Steve St Angelo's piece (Feb 8, 2016) here:

https://srsroccoreport.com/setting-the-record-straight-on-the-massive-gold-supply-conspiracy/

Wholesale gold holdings are kept quite secret for obvious reasons.

*   *   *

All of that said, it is possible, though highly unlikely, that the Ft Knox gold might be gone.  But to where?  How?  How would "they" move, say, 7000 tonnes in secret?  I used to work for a branch of .gov where we had to keep things SECRET.  And I will tell you that if 7000 tonnes of gold went "missing", LOTS of people would have known, and word would have gotten out.

"Three can keep a secret if two of them are dead."
-- Mark Twain


(Edited to correct mistakes)
2044  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: This "strange transaction" happened now on blockchain on: February 09, 2016, 06:50:48 AM
not strange as i read the tittle of this post,this is just a unique transaction,this is unique because i never see transaction with so many zero number inside.


I believe the string:

000000000000000000c6de332035e49f80293748b1b4d4931fde1d5d4978a83a

is the solution to the "math problem" (hash) to win the block.  Note large number of leading "zeros", 17 or 18.  It's a very hard math problem to solve with 17 or 18 leading zeros.  That's why mining uses so many ASIC computers, a tough problem.  Every 10 minutes.
2045  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 09, 2016, 06:44:44 AM
What do y'all think would happen if Socrates was open sourced?

OK, I'll take a crack at that, but only because you're a good guy...  Smiley

1)  Armstrong would make far less money, and have no control over his Socrates.

and

2)  If found to be useful in predicting markets, China/Russia/Japan/IBM (etc.) would build HUGE supercomputer systems...

If his group does have something exciting, then I think he would fight to the death to keep Socrates (etc.) under his control.
2046  Economy / Economics / Re: Markets Crash Deutsche Bank Close To Bankruptcy on: February 08, 2016, 11:41:41 PM
...

Here in the USA, the conditions of the European banks were the big story "causing" the stock market declines earlier today, especially on CNBS (erm, CNBC), our most prominent financial TV channel.

Zero Hedge has also been covering Deutsche's problems at considerable length.  In addition to debt problems, they have enormous derivative exposure that might go *KAPOOM* if the cookies crumble the wrong way...  Deutsche Bank is HUGE, and it would be a worldwide problem should it fail in a disorderly manner.
2047  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: This "strange transaction" happened now on blockchain on: February 08, 2016, 11:36:49 PM
...

I see F2Pool and AntPool solving blocks every day with no other transactions (other than the "Newly Generated Coins"), just the BTC25 for the winner (F2Pool here).

OP, perhaps you confused a BLOCK with a transaction?

(Or maybe I am missing something?)
2048  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will Bitcoin 'Hard Fork' in any useful features.. ? on: February 08, 2016, 11:17:40 PM
...

I would like to see:

1)  a transparent path forward so that rancorous debates re Block Size are foreseen (and hence avoided) in the future.

2)  a higher minimum fee for transactions (say, always BTC0.0002) to discourage "dust" and valueless clogging of the system.

3)  anyone proposing changes to better spell out reasons and consequences of stated changes.


Many of you already know I am not a programmer, so I likely miss technical issues, but the above I would like to see BEFORE any "useful features" that would likely introduce BUGS or other problems.
2049  Economy / Economics / Re: When A Super Rich Person Buys A Yacht Do More Africans Suffer? on: February 08, 2016, 11:08:18 PM
This does not matter one bit, the rich will become richer and the poor poorer, life continues regardless. If that rich guy  distributed that money among the poor Africans, I am sure not only will he be helping in a big way but will be more satisfied by doing a humanitarian deed than sipping cocktails in his luxury yacht.
Yes the problem in the world today, which divides the rich and poor countries is the distribution of wealth, if we all give a little, it will take a huge impact on the lives of those who has less fortunate.


I respectfully disagree.  All coercive (taxes used for wealth transfer to the poor ("welfare"), taxes for foreign aid, etc.) schemes of redistributing money have been uniformly shown to hurt the recipients.

Look at the poor in the USA.  They are no better off than they were in the 1960s.  Were such wealth transfers EVER shown to be successful, poverty would have been solved.

I invite rebuttal.  Please show us ANY cases where gifts or other wealth transfers have helped in any significant way (that is, not just an occasional anecdotal person truly helped).
2050  Economy / Economics / Maybe the Right Way to Look at BTC Price? on: February 08, 2016, 11:00:35 PM
...

And that would be the Bitcoin to gold price (here the GLD ETF vs. the Bitcoin ETF):



I am not a member of stockcharts.com, so I cannot overlay BTC price in dollars.

But, Bitcoin and gold share some characteristics.  Perhaps traders might gain insights into valuation of one vs. the other.  
2051  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or gold? on: February 08, 2016, 05:25:00 PM
...

While I am as happy the next guy (happier really) that gold is up, the price of gold will vary.  I have seen enough of these ups & downs, even large & fast-moving ones, to know that these moves are transient and cyclical.

I do not trade gold nor bitcoin (except for sometimes buying gold with BTC), so gold's price variations are only of academic interest to me.  BTC price variation is more visceral, in that I buy it from time-to-time, and then spend some on gold.

Even stating above, either BTC or gold may have huge price moves if the chips fall the right way.  Another reason to hold both.
2052  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: February 08, 2016, 05:19:46 PM
...

EUROPE got "devastated" today, their stocks crushed.  European banks were very weak, especially Deutsche Bank.  GREECE seems to "be back", how did we forget about Greece?

US stocks getting crushed.

US and German bond yields going way down (meaning value of their bonds going way up).

"Devastation" may be the word of the week.
2053  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Europe unfriendlyness is growing on: February 08, 2016, 05:16:14 PM
...

We have different views then.  We will not change each other's minds.

Each of us is in a different environment with our own perspective, which is OK.

Peace.
2054  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: PayPal's "New Money" Compaign - 2016 Super Bowl Commercial on: February 08, 2016, 05:05:55 PM
...

I don't have any problem at all with PayPal advertising as they choose.

What will be of much more interest will be if Bitcoin gains market share at PayPal's expense (likely IMO).  In general, the best products win in free market competition.  What I like about BTC (vs. PayPal) is independence and decentralization.
2055  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Halving Party 2016 on: February 08, 2016, 05:04:29 AM
...

I wonder if the BTC Halving might have unpredictable effects...  The unpredictable is usually bad.

Maybe various miners would drop out. 

Perhaps the block size problem/debate might affect things.

I would be curious to read what Bitcoiners who are programmers have to say!
2056  Economy / Economics / Re: When A Super Rich Person Buys A Yacht Do More Africans Suffer? on: February 08, 2016, 05:00:15 AM
...

WhatTheGox

Bigger problems?  I can only offer opinions:

1)  Creeping government (authoritarian) takeover of our liberties and money. .govs are broke and hungry.  Worst risk IMO.

2)  Risk of stupidly getting into more wars.  It has taken me a long time to turn libertarian (from conservative).

3)  Moral bankruptcy / societal disintegration.  Wealth concentration and declining standards of behavior ignite equivalent of civil war.

4)  "Black Swans" -- low-probability, unpredictable but heavy impact events like an EMP, mass terrorism, sudden economic collapse.
2057  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Which is the best Bitcoin Wallet? on: February 08, 2016, 04:51:22 AM
It depends on what you're looking for. If you're looking to store a lot of coins safely then offline hardware wallets like Trezor and paper wallets are the best. If you want quick access to smaller amounts and spend them out and about then you have phone wallets. My fave is Mycelium.


I vote hardware wallets as well, I have used and like both the Trezor and the Ledger Nano (the latter is cheap).  Both are pretty easy to use.  The main advantage of hardware wallets is safety.

I have tiny amounts (to buy a coffee if I can find a coffee shop who will take BTC) on my cellphone and a web wallet (both blockchain.info) for convenience, I do not recommend keeping much in either.
2058  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: February 08, 2016, 04:44:55 AM
...

Here's a fun article from Zero Hedge, sketching out a very bad China scenario, it is mostly in fun, but thought provoking too:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-07/2016-year-when-china-put-trump-throne

Chinese risks are greater than most presume, IMO.  The above enlightens with ideas...
2059  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 08, 2016, 02:45:08 AM
...

Has Armstrong changed his blog format?  It looks like he has, and it it not a good change IMO.  His pieces are in categories, not like it was, recent pieces right there on the main blog page.  That makes it harder for a quick scan of his latest.

Most unfortunate.
2060  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Europe unfriendlyness is growing on: February 07, 2016, 07:51:43 PM
...
Well see, I understand that pulling out a wad of $500s might excite you, but such bills are of little interest to the 99.9 percent of us hoi polloi. And while I would enjoy seeing a $3 bill, and a $2.37 bill, I'm willing not to whine about the U.S. Treasury, The Bureau of Engraving and Printing, to be more precise, not printing up any for me to enjoy.

As far as $500, those would be far more useful to criminals and people who wish to compensate for ...certain lackings by pulling out gold money clips of large bills.
We don't wanna cater to those Undecided

Let's say you want to buy an ounce of gold, that would cost some $1270 at your local coin shop.  Two $500s and some more vs. 13 $100s.  Pay by credit card?  They won't take it (risk of chargebacks), and even if they did, that would be 3% MOAR you would have to pay.

Your coin shop doesn't trust you? And you honestly can't be bothered to carry 13 bills instead of 5?
How often do you do this, buy ounces of gold from your coin shop? like, once a day, or more often?
Can you write them a fucking check, or did you previously screw them?
You seriously can't carry an extra (what do 8 bills weigh, anyhow? less than an ounce?)? How will you carry that z of gold?!
You're not entitled to have whatever bills you feel. I want $3 bills, and yet I haven't even petitioned my government to print them. Can you imagine?
TL;DR: It's not all about you, Snowflake. Make do with hundreds, you'll live.


Of course I'll make do.  Always have.

Try paying with a check at your coin shop.  There are other legitimate businesses that take cash too.  If I ran a coin shop, or sold gold, or ran a pawn shop, I would not take credit cards or checks.

Smiley  

I'm not sure you have thought this through enough to understand that LARGE denomination bank notes mean a little more freedom.  

Keep thinking, Snowflake.
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