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OK, thank you all very much. I'll pass on sending BTC their way. It's a pity that there appear to be NO cloudmining opportunities that come out with any kind of decent ERI.
It would seem like anyone offering a reasonable rate-of-return would attract a lot of customers, hence make more money for them.
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In my quest to educate myself further in Bitcoinistan, I on occasion just look at items at blockchain.info that may be of interest. Well, I saw Block 394904 had an "Output Total" of over $2,000,000,000 (billion). Yes, that includes "change" (etc.), but it IS the most I have seen handled by a single block.
Other factoids:
Estimated Transaction Volume: approx. $2.4 million
Estimated Fees: $254 (so, OK, BTCC will not get rich off of winning that block).
Most of those larger payments were for over $1000 (ie, not change), and there were maybe some 400 of them...
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Armstrong has more thought-provoking pieces up today re Europe. Europe is really in big, big trouble.
If one country (say Germany or France) gets really tough on the "Migrants" ("Invaders" would be a better term), that might fractures the EU as others object... But, they can choose: their culture remaining intact OR being all PC...
Germany and France both have the potential to elect a tough Strongman who WILL kick 'em out. The potential. But will they?
The UK may not escape unscathed either, there were recent riots at Calais.
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I was just at TNABC the other day, where Genesis Mining had a stand (as did Ledger, the hardware wallet maker). I took some photos, and may write my visit up at my blog.
A quick look around here did not show a thread (of course I may not have been looking in the right place).
I would be very interested to hear of any experiences from any of you re Genesis, I am considering an investment (I too am iinterested in growing my BTC pile).
*** I do understand that most mining contracts are either "Ponzi" or uneconomic. But, I would definitely like opinions. ***
Thank you!
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... frank.3898b I have more than one account at blockchain.info. And each account (wallet) has multiple BTC addresses. Try setting up another account yourself! Send some BTC back and forth to get more familiar with blockchain.info. Bitcoin is a pretty fascinating set of technologies, yet accessible to beginners. Good luck!  |
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galdur
That's quite a Mighty March Upward for the 30-Year Bond! All the way from 2000 until now. Yes, in a recession (and/or deflation), the Bond will do very well compared to almost everything else.
But, neither do trees grow tot he sky. 30 years is a long time for economic conditions to change.
Dow down 387 as I write, and that is off its lows of the day.
Stayed diversified and cautious everyone...
* * *
EDIT: Crude oil is now down to a rather alarming $26.93, yow!
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I love Bitcoin and all the potential it offers... But unfortunately if I had to choose between Bitcoin and Gold and only be able to buy one I would have to go with Gold. Only because it would be so much easier selling the gold and converting it to Fiat currency if needed. I can basically walk into any gold broker with an American Eagle gold coin and walk out with cash in hand. Bitcoin still needs electronic transfer of some kind to make it to your hand. There's also the.local meet up method but that's much shader than going to a reputable gold broker
I have always liked BOTH, and made that clear on occasion. Nonetheless, my own choices have made it clear which I prefer between gold and BTC (in terms of US$ value of my holdings): Gold!I own both, and am happy with both. I just own more gold. rmc0315 explains part of reasons why. Gold's 5000 + year history explains much of the rest. Gold and Bitcoin move differently, they are different "vectors" if you will. Therefore, BOTH are a great part of diversification in one's own portfolio of assets. There need be no either gold or BTC, BOTH is the best answer! |
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... I liked Tiraspol's reply to Wadhwa. I don't think anybody is really in a position to declare that Bitcoin is dead or dying yet. It has grown from nothing to something fairly substantial, and no one really knows how much it will grow in the coming years... (My prediction would be worth less than zero) Many of us hanging on (HODLing) BTC may be "loyal", "greedy" or even "stupid", but who is this guy to say that? He perhaps reveals more of himself than he intends... |
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Those arms are useless in my opinion anyway. I just want an online service where I can buy bitcoin in seconds.
I don't want to have to go out to buy bitcoin and show in public that I'm buying it.
Hear you, NorrisK (and Master of Puppets too). I would like to see some brave entrepreneurs open up a service (on the 'Net or even making BTMs) that would sell me BTC for cash without all of the annoying AML/KYC "features". Whose business is it anyway what we do with our own money (that we have already paid txes on earning)? SOMEONE is going to figure out how to do this -- selling BTC quietly. And they will make a fortune. A gold mine. Bravo for them.* * * Hmm, if private individuals, who, um, might have friends who like BTC, might be able to purchase a Lamassu and just keep it in their house... Sell BTC for CA$H, but just their own... Maybe let a few friends into the clubhouse too... SOMEONE is going to get very wealthy cracking this nut. And localbitcoins just is not doing the job in my city. |
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Lurching into some new terrain here, I pass along the news that I am about halfway through G. Edward Griffin's The Creature from Jekyll Island. It took me long enough to get around to reading this book. It is a strongly worded and apparently well-documented book showing the Socialist (hence ultimately TOTALITARIAN) players before the founding of the Federal Reserve, during and afterwards to this day.
It is a tad conspiratorial, but I believe that much of Griffin's contentions could be verified, as I have seen many of them before. The Fabians (Socialists in the UK) did get money from Cecil Rhodes (and what famous (later on) American got a Rhodes Scholarship in the 1960s? - I'll leave that one as an exercise for the reader, LOL).
Many of the "usual suspects" are discussed, but there are more references in the book than anything I have read at Zero Hedge, for example.
If Griffin is even halfway correct, than Economic Totalitarianism has been, is, and will be with us (for a long long time). I will read the rest of the book before I review, perhaps at my blog, perhaps here.
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... I mention again that very few, if any, can predict the future with anything significantly higher than random, especially in the short-term (I do believe that some can read trends more accurately, and so might have some ability to beat the average when thinking longer-term). Nonetheless, Armstrong HAS acquired a devoted fan base, he would not have as many admirers if he were way off-base. Disclosure: I have NOT done the research necessary to compare his predictions vs. what actually happened (nor in what TIME-FRAME, smile...), nor how his record stacks up vs. other prognosticators. Also, he mixes political analysis to some degree in almost everything he writes, that makes it harder to properly distinguish factors behind his predictions, on the other hand those predictions partly based on politics are more ambitious and forward-leaning...But for me, it matters little. He claims to have a supercomputer grinding away on all the data he has amassed. I am willing to give him some time to see how his ideas work out. No one else claims to have put together such a database (not even Goldman Sachs IIRC). Indeed, when he was in prison, I encountered some 12 or so of his reports via Scribd. They were fascinating, clearly showing a knowledge of financial history. Again, I started this thread so that people could come along and analyze his stuff. So far, this thread has had total success! Thank you all for playing! |
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Anyone already shorting bitcoin in prevision of the spring low that anonymint predicted?
Stop this absurdity please. He did have predicted nothing else but wrong figures and trends. I am the most vocal cheerleader of the TPTB_need_war fanboy club, he is the best in the BCT forum on information technology related topics, he is an exceptionally smart and knowledgeable man, but his Bitcoin price prediction is a complete nonsense. I point it out why and you could read it at With regards to the price ...
but shortly, he has predicted the top cannot exceed $325, and then it must and will crash to $150 or even double digits. Instead of crashing to double digits the BTC market has been trading 30%-50% above his ceiling for a while. I am not sure why he started to spread his BS of "as I predicted the BTC price of $150 for this spring", because everyone can read what he has predicted. As for Armstrong, I am the most vocal cheerleader of the Armstrong's fanboy club as well, and I have nothing but respect with regards to his analytical skill that puts current market events in historical context and that - in my opinion - allows him to draw logical conclusions about long market trends, plus it was quite impressive how he could predict the Russian crisis in 1997-98 by analysing the global capital flow, but I have to admit sloanf has made several valid points about Armstrong. The bottom line is: nobody can predict the next day, but not even the next week market. Even sensible individuals like Caldaro or Avi Gilburt predict completely wrong short and medium term market price. (right now Caldaro says that he has never seen such market reaction, it is very unusual how the market behaves that's why he couldn't predict the current dip .. . no shit .. the market behave unpredictably). It seems Armstrong's long term prediction about the capital inflow to the US equity market makes lots of sense and it seems logical, but he is unable to predict short term trends, and to be fair he is not even trying to do it lately. His most useful short term market tip was when he said 3 months ago that the volatility will be too high and it is not possible to trade on this market. Many of us translated this to a long straddle trade and it was a profitable strategy, but to be fair to Armstrong's critics, after the August lows and during the earning seasons combined with the FED rate raise the volatility was not a surprise, so by stating that the market will be volatile Armstrong was stating the obvious. That's pretty much my view as well. NO ONE bats 1.000, no one gets future predictions even 90% correctly. Predicting the future is very hard, especially in with complex systems like the economy and finance. Longer term trends are sometimes easier to predict because there are some critical factors that sometimes can be identified that many miss... Armstrong's great value to me are his ideas! Same with "our" TPTB. Whether specific short-term predictions come true a high-percentage of the time is not important. Longer term is what IS important. |
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Maybe I am missing something here, but if Bitcoin becomes a failed project, would that not be reflected in the price of BTC?
Whether a "failure" is perceived early (BTC price plunge) or if the failure becomes seen gradually (a persistent loss of faith in BTC, and so price goes down for a long time), a FAILURE would lead to a permanent price decline (over and beyond the normal price volatility).
If BTC is a failure, we will likely know pretty soon by further falling prices. I have no idea if this "Bitcoin Classic" imbroglio will lead to a failure or not.
If people are scared of a Bitcoin Failure, then get out. Cash it in, or buy gold.
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aside from this you need to declare everything prior moving those huge amount, with bitcoin i can go ahead and moving my millions without saying nothing to anyone
I want my transfers recorded. If they aren't recorded, how do I prove that I sent someone the money? If there is no record of me sending someone 10 million, why wouldn't they just walk away with the money? What if they say they didn't get it? For large transactions (and whose fate you might worry about), you could always send smaller amounts of BTC per transaction as the fees for BTC are so small. For example, if you needed to send a counterparty $100,000 (say BTC250), you could send BTC100, and ask for confirmation of receipt. Then send the rest later (delivery to port for example). At some point you have to trust your counterparty to deliver what you pay for. |
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Usually owning productive capital assets is a good thing to ensure reliable income stream and/or capital growth into the future.
Productive capital to me means tangible things that add to economic growth: chip factories, railroads and oil & mines (as examples).
But, in recessions, demand for goods and services declines, that usually means that productive capital assets become worth LESS for the interim. A look at recent stock prices for some capital assets is instructive:
MU (Micron Semiconductor, they make memory chips)
UNP (Union Pacific railroad) and GMT (GATX, leases railway cars)
FCX (Freeport-McMoran, large copper & gold producer)
SLB (Schlumberger, oilfield services)
All down big.
On the other hand, when the world economy recovers, there could be lots of money to be made in productive assets...
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It took a very long time for me to decide to read this book, but I finally have started (about 25% the way through). It is excellent so far and highly recommended.
The "Creature", of course, is the Federal Reserve. Griffin essentially pastes the Fed, as well as notions of Socialism and Keynesianism as the work of quiet architects of a New World Order. In the book is nice description of Fabian Socialists, a group of insidious people I knew very little about (and who do not hide their sympathies to world Socialism). Their "logo" is a wolf in sheep's clothing.
I welcome comments on this work, or comments on the Federal Reserve. It is clear that this non-governmental (but still sort of governmental...) does NOT have our interests at heart.
* * *
Of interest perhaps is the fact that I had to visit THREE bookstores (all Barnes & Noble) before I could find the ONE copy. Hmm...
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Robocoin was always SHIT anyway. Did any of you actually try this thing? It was a total mess, you would need even a hand scan along with ID and a lot of other shit. Such ATMs only bring a bad feeling to people because they need a lot of credentials to get some damn Bitcoin.
My city has two Bitcoin ATMs ("BTMs"). They are Lamassu brand. I have used one of them. About 25% of the time, it is not working (or correctly anyway), though sometimes the owner can reboot it from their office. The one I have used here wants a scan of a Driver's License. I don't understand why it should be so hard to make a decent BTM. The Lamassu works (mostly) and is resistant to at least casual theft (of the CA$H inside it). |
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... The Dow is down 435 or so as I write. But what I follow even more are indicators of where my personal finance lies. The Baltic Dry Index (a measure of marine freight rates for bulk materials like corn and cement) is down to a record low:  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24bdiOther disturbing new lows: GMT (GATX, a large company that leases railcars): $34.93, down 46% off its 2015 highs TGH (Textainer Group Holdings, leases shipping containers): $9.51, down over 70% from 2015 high Crude oil (WTIC) was under $30 / barrel earlier today.... |
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Risk Mgmt
I presume you write of the price of gold (Armstrong did today as well -- he writes that in his opinion gold will below $1000 before long). He or you might very well be right.
Let's just say that Armstrong is correct for sake of exploring this idea. He then goes on to say that gold would then go on to $5000 as confidence is lost in government.
OK, just making up something here...:
Gold is now around $1175. Let's say you bought some (say 10 oz). Gold goes down to $900, or even $800, but you do not sell. Then gold goes to $5000 (call this an Armstrong Scenario). You then sell some at $2000, maybe some more at $3000, and more at $4000 or $5000. You would likely not feel badly at all should it do that... Buy at $1200, sell at an average of, say, $2500.
Could the price of gold do that? Would it? Who knows.
One thing I do know is that gold has been valued by almost all of humanity for 5000 years...
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