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2081  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 06, 2016, 06:25:55 PM

thank you for honesty in your investing strategy TPTB

you are smart

what do you think of Kyle Bass and George Soros

world greatest investment opportunity today

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1354286.msg13786959#msg13786959

I follow http://blog.mpettis.com/ and Martin Armstrong. Armstrong has consistently said China will have a crisis starting 2017 and bottom in 2020 (but I don't know about Yuan and FX crisis), as well that oil will rise again in 2017 as the War Cycle heats up to hot wars. Pettis has argued that China needs to rebalance from manufacturing to services and they would need < 3% growth for a decade. Both have made the point that China has refused to revert to the mean and thus will suffer Waterfall collapse 2017 - 2020. Armstrong has noted $850 billion of capital exodus from China just within the past year, as the wealthy diversify out of China and into SE Asia and more so luxury investments in the USA and USD denominated investments.

Note China and India will rise up and be the financial leaders of the world from 2032 onwards.


I don't read Pettis as much as I should.  Michael Pettis is extremely respected among some bloggers that I read, he has a position as a professor IIRC at a university in China.

Re TPTB's remark about India and China, well, I can say that barring mishaps and/or stupidity (which always should be in the equation), INDIA is likely to be a real financial power in the future.  We were recently there (as tourists), and just this week I was contacted by an Indian ball bearing manufacturer re distributing their product in Peru.  It looks like they supply the BEARINGS for a Hub Assembly (wheels) for some US truck manufacturers, I am still waiting on more information from them.  India's Bajaj, a maker of "tuk-tuks" ("moto-taxis") has a huge part f Peru's market for the little three-wheelers to haul people in poorer neighborhoods all over Peru.  India has been fairly neglected in the media re their future, they are a real threat to Chinese hegemony in Asia.
2082  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 06, 2016, 06:18:48 PM
...

altcoinUK

That's actually another point in Armstrong's favor, that he is giving it to us straight (well, if you have a subscription, even straighter) without having to shill "CNBS-style".  As well as letting us know from time-to-time that he just doesn't know.

*   *   *

Disclosure: I have no problem with anyone posting here and saying whatever they want.  I would not mind if someone wants to do some REAL WORK (= a lot) to take, say, the last 6 months of MA's predictions, post the results, and run a statistical analysis on them.  Granted, a lot of work for an uncertain value.

As for the disclosure, no one is more supportive of the unmoderated thread concept than me, but there is a difference of having an open dialogue about ideas or read over and over the condescending trolling of that sloanf boy who point out what an idiot TPTB_need_war is which itself a very ridiculous things to say. You can say a few things about TPTB_need_war if you really feel the world must know what is your fucking opinion about him, but you can't say with a straight face that he is an idiot - only a troll say that.

As for Armstrong, yes I agree, one of the big plus about him that he is the exact opposite of the usual CNBC shills. The CNBC and Bloomberg is on for me all the time, but the level of shilling is sometimes is beyond endurance on those channels. I pay for the analysis of many analysts like McClellan, Avi Gilburt, etc. and I can get useful insights from them or from their community (in the case of the latest), but Armstrong the only one who tell you honestly that sorry, it is too volatile and I don't have a clear pointer. As I said several times I am not a big fan of Armstrong's sales approach, but on the other hand nobody is fucking perfect, so we should give the man a bloody break and stop demanding from him to be a 100% perfect forecaster, trader, historian, economists, sociologist, analyst and gentleman.


That's a great comment, altcoinUK.

In almost all public forums, it pays to write in a non-trolly (that was clumsily expressed, sorry) fashion.  But, since MA's work is unclear to me about how predictive it is, well, that's another reason I started this thread.  So, even if sloanf has differing opinions (and a poor way of enlisting possible allies to carefully look at Armstrong more critically), hey, it's OK.  I'm here to learn, bitchez.

I too (but in the past) have paid for subscriptions to newsletters, etc. re the financial markets.  My experience was that the ideas were of interest, but the recommendations often were not profitable.  So, I now look for IDEAS more than hard predictions.

I do leave open the real possibility that MA has a good record (we will just have see, at least I will), I hope that he is onto something with all of his data and the supercomputer grinding away...

Hear you re CNBS and Bloomberg shilling, they are probably all for Shillary! anyway.........
2083  Economy / Economics / Re: GERMANY CONSIDERS $5,450 LIMIT ON CASH TRANSACTIONS on: February 06, 2016, 02:55:54 AM
Isn't it crazy how all the different governments are telling people how & when then can spend THEIR OWN money?  Can wait for bitcoin to be mainstream and trump all the government imposed laws!

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GERMANY_CASH_LIMIT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-03-06-58-46

This is just the beginning.
After a while the government will reduce it to 3000€, then 1500€ and at the end cash will be banned.
The only reason they are doing this is to control the population and to prepare the next bailout/bailin for the banks so that people can not withdraw what is theirs when shit is hitting the fan.


IMO Denker has this new German policy read correctly.  These kinds of *new* regulations always start out unthreatening...  Just like the very low US Income Tax did in 1913 (something like a maximum high rate of 4%).

Then, once the camel's nose is in the tent (or teh frog in water heating up), they tighten and tighten.  Then it becomes a really bad problem.
2084  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders will be next USA president? on: February 06, 2016, 02:48:16 AM
Hilldog will be the death of the United States, in that sense she knows exactly what to do.


Agreed, trollerc.  Shillary would be about the last nail in our coffin.  As it is, the USA does not have much time to right the ship.  Would Shillary let in Muslim "Migrants" as Obama is about to?

"More Democrat Party voters."  <=== Same comment re our approx. 12,000,000 illegals already here.  It's their plan to cement a permanent electoral majority.
2085  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Poll to determine most popular ways to use bitcoin cold storage on: February 06, 2016, 02:41:04 AM
...

I was not able to vote!  The section above showed the 8 votes received so far, but there was no button(s) for me to choose.

I currently use a Ledger Nano and a Trezor.  I like both about the same.
2086  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 06, 2016, 02:33:33 AM
...

altcoinUK

That's actually another point in Armstrong's favor, that he is giving it to us straight (well, if you have a subscription, even straighter) without having to shill "CNBS-style".  As well as letting us know from time-to-time that he just doesn't know.

*   *   *

Disclosure: I have no problem with anyone posting here and saying whatever they want.  I would not mind if someone wants to do some REAL WORK (= a lot) to take, say, the last 6 months of MA's predictions, post the results, and run a statistical analysis on them.  Granted, a lot of work for an uncertain value.
2087  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: February 06, 2016, 02:27:10 AM
Roving gangs of ficki ficki rapists would be stopped by average males, I have no doubts about that, you guys must have estrogen in the water..
No they wouldn't. I know what the modern American male is like. Guess what? The guys in the former East Germany are actually physically tougher than you.

Americans really are full of BS. In a disarmed American city, only the police would be able to stop these roving gangs. The average American urban or suburban male would shit himself. We both know that, so please stop fooling yourself about that. It's very easy taking the piss from a safe distance, especially if you live in a rural area.


I don't know Corazon79...

I know lots of people who are armed, some of them with concealed weapons (need a permit).  TPTB above also made the point that any American men who got smacked around playing (US-style) football would likely not be afraid to go at it with Muslims should they pull the same crap on American women (or old people -- see recent video from Munich).

MAYBE the first time men would not intervene, out of shock or whatever.  But as soon as it made the news (it would), then the following Muslim assault would be ruthlessly dealt with by, yes, American men.

At least in "Flyover Country", perhaps not in NYC or California or Massachussetts...
2088  Economy / Economics / Re: Japan adopts negative interest rate in surprise move on: February 05, 2016, 08:24:19 PM
When I went to Japan recently they doubled-checked my luggage and other passengers' on a systematic basis at the customs, to make sure that we weren't carrying any gold (amongst all the other traditional drugs and weapons). It was my first time being controlled for gold by the customs. They even showed us a sign, explicitly showing gold bars on them, asking us if we had any  Cheesy. Has anyone else recently had the experience when going to Japan?
There's something to dig there: they're going in with the hope that people will get their money out from banks in order to actually invest in businesses and not in gold or in bitcoin. It tells you something about how desperate they are about their deflation. That's good news for us anyway. I heard that regular Japanese people liked to save money on their bank account and didn't really buy stocks or assets, but these negative interest rate here are only aimed at rich people, who of course know about these investments.

Someday they my try to come and take our gold in the west again also,  like they did in the USA before the war.  What a terrible world we live in when you are told by your government not to own gold.  it shows we live in an absolute dictatorship.


Molon Labe

But, .gov confiscation of gold is arguably less of interest to them, as gold is no longer considered "money" by TPTB.  In 1933, $20 gold coins circulated...

Gold and CA$H (in CASH, not electrons there at the bank) are two excellent hedges.  Bitcoin too.

CA$H at home "earns" in a NIRP environment.
2089  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What are the biggest faults of BTC & how would you fix them? on: February 05, 2016, 08:19:15 PM
...

1)  Block size.  Satoshi could have probably anticipated this, and he (or the team) should have written some code allowing an easy expansion through time...  Whatever developers "win" the block size tangle, please think ahead guys!

2)  Limited acceptance by merchants (the principal thing retarding BTC growth IMO).  I do not know how to fix this one.  Time and customer demand?


EDIT:

3)  It is HARD to buy Bitcoin, especially quietly.
2090  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: ✰ [ANN] BITMIXER.IO ✰ High Volume Bitcoin Mixer ✰ on: February 05, 2016, 08:14:44 PM
By the way, why you have 100 BTC lower limit to investing? Many people have not so many BTC  Huh
We are not interested in new investors now, sorry. We have over 2,000 btc in reserve. It is enough even for high volume clients.


Which is too bad, actually.

Investing on the terms at Bitmixer's website looks like it would be one of the very few legitimate ways to make money for passive BTC investors.

Agree with above comments re excellent mixing service, highly recommended.
2091  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or gold? on: February 05, 2016, 08:11:50 PM
...

Gold is more likely to be worth more than BTC say in 50 years.  Bitcoin will probably change, evolve or die given a longer-term time horizon.

Again, I own BOTH.  BTC for its possible huge price rise (short to medium term).

Gold for wealth preservation.

Gold price does not move parallel to BTC.  Diversification.

2092  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 05, 2016, 08:02:03 PM
...

Today Armstrong puts out more interesting reading, here are two pieces:

"Germany to Enforce a (Euro)5000 Limit on Cash Transactions"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/42932

We knew some of this a couple of days ago, but this shows that The State does not have our interests at heart...

"Hillary and Goldman Sachs: a 20+ Years Relationship"

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/43063

Um, more ugh.  Not a surprise.  Why won't she release the texts of her speeches?
2093  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 05, 2016, 07:57:06 PM
This is what I have been trying to teach to sloanf, that if you don't use international pricing then analysis is entirely wrong:


Oh, you are trying to teach me after we have established this:


Since you:
1.   have been buying bs from MA, a convicted fraudster and an extremely terrible forecaster, for years
2.   even brag by this fact (1) in front of everybody as if it was an achievement
3.   did not do even a basic fact-checking because of your inability to do so due to lack of common sense and any form of critical and independent thinking
4.   deny all the facts and evidence collected, brought and very carefully explained to you by many others
5.   keep spreading MA bs promoting his scam all over the place for free despite (4)

you embrace the very definition of stupidity. And since you have been stupid for so long, it must be your normal and pretty comfortable state and therefore cannot be an insult for you. And the reason I have written the above is not to humiliate you or make you feel bad. As I said, I don’t care about you because it’s not important because it’s not the purpose of this thread. My only intention was to prove my claims about your stupidity and that’s what I have done.


Anyhow, what is the point of your posts? All you do is simply copy-paste from MA posts without any relevance or meaning. If somebody wants to read MA, they can go on his website and read the original posts without your skewed interpretation. If you want to prove some of MA claims, you cannot do so simply by referring to his own posts. In other words, you’re saying “MA is right because check this here, he says he’s right”.

Or are you trying to persuade everybody that these forecasts were correct?

1.   Gold 5K-12K by 2015\2016. The opposite happened.
2.   Collapse of the USD after 2011. The opposite happened.
3.   Gold below 1K since 2013. Never happened since then.
4.   RE will not recover after the 2008 crash. The opposite happened.
5.   Oil rally after mid-2014 into 2017. The opposite happened.
6.   Dow 32K-40K by 2015 then by 2017 and now by 2020. Never happened.
7.   Big Bang on 2015.75, the US government shutdown, government debt collapse, shift from bonds to equities. The opposite happens.




Re your forecast No. 1, 2016 is not done yet.  Keep in mind that I am a gold bull though.

As I have mentioned several times before, NO ONE can well predict the future, but Armstrong is walking the plank.  Sticking his neck out (reputation anyway) by making fairly flat predictions.

If his calls wind up being statistically superior to others (or vs. random), then that would show that he onto something, perhaps something BIG.

We still have some time to see if Armstrong is gifted, or else just another guy like the rest of us.
2094  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: EU plans KYC regulations for online wallets and exchanges services on: February 03, 2016, 03:28:38 AM
A few weeks ago, there was a proposal from 3 lone members of the European parliament, but it's much more serious now with this proposal. It's coming straight from the European Commission in Brussels:

Virtual currency exchange platforms can be considered as 'electronic' currency exchange offices that trade virtual currencies for real currencies (or so-called 'fiat' currencies, such as the euro). On the other hand, virtual currency wallet providers hold virtual currency accounts on behalf of their customers. In the 'virtual currency' world, they are the equivalent of a bank offering a current account. They store virtual currencies and allow for their transfers to other wallets/virtual currency accounts.

There is a growing consensus in Europe that virtual currency exchange platforms should be subjected to 'know-your-customer' rules under the Fourth Anti-Money Laundering Directive, which will have to identify and verify the identity of the person exchanging virtual currencies for real currencies and vice versa.


No more anonymous transactions in Europe. That's their goal.

if your going to touch FIAT. expect to be asked for your life story. remember they need to monitor the devil (FIAT) if they want to control the devil(FIAT).

this has nothing to do with bitcoin and is standard world wide mindset of all governments of their devilish currency (FIAT)


I'm afraid that is so.  All .govs seem to be cracking down (and relatively quickly at that).  Especially on moving wealth around in a quiet way.  It's very disturbing to those of us who value our LIBERTIES above all.

This is getting worse almost everywhere.  In Peru (where we have an auto parts import company), their tax authorities now require our company there to submit every Invoice (with details on EVERY line items we sell) to them on a spreadsheet via email.  Rather advanced and Orwellian for a place like Peru.
2095  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Europe unfriendlyness is growing on: February 03, 2016, 03:23:09 AM
Europa is a trap.
Capital control, stealth of people money in the banks.

Perhaps Russia or China can save us ... at the end.
Or perhaps it can take a war to stealth the gold reserve of each country.

hint : Europa don't have an army.

In my opinion europe go to a financial dictatorship system. They are closing their boards, we have seen racist and facist increase even and for traditional open communities like denmark, sweden, we have seen an economical war against every new idea and to every new technology, and we see an economical war to everyone in the europe that is not agree with the europe governance.
I think europe is in big trouble.

Have to agree with the sentiments guys: Europe has trouble and adversity coming at it from so many angles (both from within and externally)

  • Widespread tax increases
  • Widespread price inflation
  • Widespread public spending cuts
  • Increasing unemployment
  • Armed conflict on 3 fronts (Ukraine, Turkey, Libya/North Africa)
  • High and increasing levels of immigration (from the other side of the fronts to those 3 armed conflicts)
  • Increasing frequency/severity of terrorist attacks committed against the public
  • Widespread political acrimony, as solutions to the problems aren't obvious

The EU right now looks like a pressure cooker left forgotten on the stove.


Yes, Europe is a continent of many huge problems.  The "Migrants" problem is huge just by itself.  If the current governments of Germany, Sweden, etc. do not do something tough against the "Migrants", the Hard Right will.  Which will lead to other scary problems.

The financial/economic problems are very serious too, lots and lots of them.  And these will be near-impossible to resolve easily.  Agree: NO solutions are obvious...

Which is too damn bad from my viewpoint (American).  Europe is the main source of our culture, Europe is a vital piece of the world.
2096  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: February 01, 2016, 05:51:30 AM
...

Armstrong talking at an independent Tedx event:

http://tedxtalks.ted.com/video/Vigilante-of-Democracy-Martin-A;search%3Ax%20martin%20ar

The main thrust of this talk is invasive & corrupt government mixed in with some economic and political history.
2097  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: February 01, 2016, 04:39:34 AM


Another excellent piece, trollerc.  Thanks for posting it.

Europe is on the edge of becoming a neutered country, incapable of maintaining its society along the norms of "The West".  5 - 10 years after, they will become Islamicized.  It's already starting to happen, yet the Socialist Retards running EVERYTHING over there are hypnotized...

I wonder, trollerc, if the USA and/or Australia will allow their women to be harassed like that.  My guess is "no", but who knows.  At least in the West or South in the USA the Musloids would get an immediate ticket to their heaven, where their 72 goats await them.
2098  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: OVERVIEW: BITCOIN HARDWARE WALLETS █████████████████ Secure your Coins on: February 01, 2016, 03:09:34 AM
...

In more detail and more accurately, in my case BitcoinNewsMagazine and btchip, I receive regular payments to one wallet, my irregular payments (when I buy BTC) go to a different wallet each time I purchase (all of these wallets are online wallets for convenience). 

Once the transactions are confirmed and once I "have enough" to mix, I then send BTC off to be mixed and then to either my Ledger Nano or my Trezor depending on my mood.
2099  Economy / Economics / Re: Big Crash coming on: February 01, 2016, 03:01:37 AM
...

@ Yakamoto

The chart I put up (from stockcharts.com) only goes back some 2 and a half years.

I googled "baltic dry index, rates, 2009 - 2014" and found the below link (no separate chart to post here, but there is one at the link):

http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

The BDI topped out at about 11,300 (2008).  It is now at 317.  Down 97%!!

OK, bulk commodity shipping rates are not 100% correlated with the world economy.  But the correlation is likely to be pretty tight...
2100  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Need some expert opinion here guys :) on: January 31, 2016, 07:14:07 PM
I really have no idea about how to make a Bitcoin business. But I know that there aren't any Bitcoin lawyers.


A quick Google search "Bitcoin, lawyers" yielded up at least four law firms on the first page of results.

thebtclawyer.com/

bitcoinlaw.net

www.attorneybitcoin.com/

www.mushkinlaw.com/bitcoin-law1.html

*   *   *

Someone, somewhere, at some time is going to find a way to sell BTC without all of the AML/KYC regulations.  And they will make a fortune, a gold mine.

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