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1481  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 17, 2014, 04:03:22 AM
banks have no problem buying bubblicious derivatives, lending money to poeple that are likely to default in < 12months.

wtf is this "risk profile" bullshit

It's called red-lining, and it's only illegal if you are in a protected class.


it's downright criminal is what it is

what exactly is a "protected class" anyways?



Democrat voters.

thank you for your answer, but apparently you miss-took me for someone intelligent educated.

could you please explain or elaborate?

perhaps you mean that the voting class has some kind of protection from the ruling class? I just don't get it.
1482  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 17, 2014, 03:17:29 AM
Is it?  What factor should one apply to those number to get the real cost?

You can't.  You have throw away that number and  compute a valid number.  It costs about $2k to buy 1 ghps, which gives you a 1.3x10^-8 chance at every 25 btc block reward (one every 9 minutes).  That difficulty increases 20% at each adjustment, every 12.8 days.  Now calculate.

"now calculate" - hehe, yeah, right.

as a miner for 3 years now, I would say that my opinion of the "cost" of mining will closely correlate with the bitcoin price moving forward.

there will be significant lag, as there is a lot of sunk money in bitcoin mining, but my greatest hope would be the graph below:


credit to TERA for this nearly famous chart.  


such a scenario would dampen mining in a profound way. we really had a great push when asics were first realized, and then implemented, and now they have been executed.

Now we are reaching the boundaries of what is currently possible. The physical boundary of heat is IMO the biggest barrier at this time.

Until the next "quantum leap" in computing, mining bitcoin is going to get quite boring. (it already pretty much is)

altcoins keep it fun, kinda, and I can see the real innovation in trying to find new super-secure, energy-efficient, wipes-your-ass-for-you types of encryption.

the only problem is that with 5 years of accounting records behind it, bitcoin has a large incentive to stick around...

... sorry, I started out trying to pick a fight and now I don't even remember what I was mad about. isn't the internet great?
1483  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 17, 2014, 02:52:45 AM
banks have no problem buying bubblicious derivatives, lending money to poeple that are likely to default in < 12months.

wtf is this "risk profile" bullshit

It's called red-lining, and it's only illegal if you are in a protected class.


it's downright criminal is what it is

what exactly is a "protected class" anyways?

1484  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 17, 2014, 02:17:22 AM
banks have no problem buying bubblicious derivatives, lending money to poeple that are likely to default in < 12months.

wtf is this "risk profile" bullshit

no kidding

at least we're done with the "first they ignore you, then they ridicule you" phase, we are now entering the transition to the "then they fight you" phase.

still a lot of ridicule out there, and I think the fight will be long and bloody as well, but eventually we will reach the "win" phase.

if we can't win against the vampire squids then I'll probably die trying.
1485  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 03:30:37 AM
Chinese miners still gotta sell.

asicminer is in china, right?

I don't hear much about them anymore...

anyways, I gotta get some sleep, so at the risk of being spammy I'll drop this link one more time.

http://youtu.be/XcGh1Dex4Yo?t=1h14m39s

good night now!
1486  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 02:31:42 AM
I would really love to see some cascading, blood-red waterfalls right now.

It's probably my strongest personal indicator that it is not going to happen.
1487  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 02:18:45 AM
I was gonna say this at 2735 but had to go make me a BLT, but.. I think that was it...

Bid sums lookin too good on Huobi for any more dropping.


Huobi is notorious of suddenly waking you up from your low volume trance by violently smashing deep through everything you thought was a support and more and weeks of up candles are erased with a single down candle.

Huobi is awesome at that, and they can do it both ways, down, and up.

I'll be sad when (if?) they're gone.

(edit, actually I guess it was btcchina that did the up stuff, so perhaps amend the above statement as a generalization of chinese exchanges.)

(second edit, hmm, why the other exchanges not following? are we finally reaching the bottom? I remember it took a long time before other exchanges stopped reacting to gox.)
1488  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 02:12:25 AM
Vampire Squids

http://youtu.be/XcGh1Dex4Yo?t=1h1m12s

quite good little show (you might want to skip the first 30 minutes or so of remedial stuff if you're already aware what's going on)

Thanks. I will check it out tomorrow.

you're welcome, and you should, it's from 2012 and I can't believe I hadn't seen it before now.
1489  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 01:49:36 AM
Vampire Squids

http://youtu.be/XcGh1Dex4Yo?t=1h1m12s

quite good little show (you might want to skip the first 30 minutes or so of remedial stuff if you're already aware what's going on)
1490  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 01:12:31 AM
you know in 6 months time bitcoin usually is higher then it was 6 months ago.
Perhaps, but it was 20 months from june 2011 to february 2013.

this is the forgotten period of bitcoin history.

I listen to a lot of the bitcoin podcasts and stuff, and when they interview someone, they often ask "when did you first learn about bitcoin?"

The vast majority of the answers are either 2011, or 2013.

You never hear anyone say "oh, I heard about bitcoin in 2012 and I was instantly hooked"  Cheesy

(*note* the guys that were around from before 2011 are almost never asked this question)
1491  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 12:49:27 AM
CCMF!
where were you all this time ? you know it is CCMF when goat is back  Cheesy

It's certainly starting to feel like the weather is changing, I got tired of waiting for the rest of my tranche to get eaten so I removed the bid at 333 and bought some at 470 CAD this morning...

Still hoping for one last crash to 400 before liftoff, but I'm afraid we might not get the chance.

A lot of payment processors coming on board ....starting to feel like "WINTER" is over

Time for the bears to go back into hibernation Cheesy

me too! once this puppy pops to the upside, I am hibernating my coins until we hit at least 2000.
1492  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 16, 2014, 12:08:34 AM
CCMF!
where were you all this time ? you know it is CCMF when goat is back  Cheesy

It's certainly starting to feel like the weather is changing, I got tired of waiting for the rest of my tranche to get eaten so I removed the bid at 333 and bought some at 470 CAD this morning...

Still hoping for one last crash to 400 before liftoff, but I'm afraid we might not get the chance.
1493  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2014, 02:52:41 AM
uh oh, looks like the ground is shaking... (huobi looks to be going up)

I really hope this is a bulltrap.

*edit* askwall coming down and flattening on huobi, probably false alarm, although if the 440 askwall at btc-e were to get eaten, things might get exciting.
1494  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2014, 02:45:18 AM
That's impossible if you started out with any satoshis.  Even starting with 1 satoshi, after one month, you would have more than 1 BTC.  After 2 months, you would have more than 100million bitcoins, which is far more than the supply ever to be made, unless you were dealing with gox coins, which are magical.  The magic of compounding interest is truly amazing!!!! 
Check my signature, again...  Grin

L O F'n L

I totally missed who actually wrote that post. my apologies prof, I mostly glaze over the names and look just at the content, especially if there is no avatar giveaway.

kudos. trolled me good  Cheesy
1495  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2014, 02:22:46 AM
I own more BTC than 99.9% of the world population combined. Of course I am feeling lucky!
Well, I am still doubling my BTC holdings every day since December.  Beat that!  Wink



That's impossible if you started out with any satoshis.  Even starting with 1 satoshi, after one month, you would have more than 1 BTC.  After 2 months, you would have more than 100million bitcoins, which is far more than the supply ever to be made, unless you were dealing with gox coins, which are magical.  The magic of compounding interest is truly amazing!!!! 

Thanks Jay, as soon as I saw that post I was gonna try to do the math to call him out on his absolute bullshit, but then I realized it wasn't worth my time.

also thanks for using NOT one annoying quirk in that entire post.

 Grin
1496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2014, 12:11:12 AM
Ebay is big news. How many other retailers will jump on board after that endorsement?. That combined with the wave of atms, new exchanges, investment funds, investment into bitcoin business, etc. will make a big wave soon. It's only a matter of time.  

Where's the news here? He said fuck all new from what he said year ago.
but he said it again!

buy this rumor
buy more when poeple sell the news.

Thanks Adam, you always give the best advice Wink

also, guess who wisdom added?

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/vos/btccad
1497  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hey Bears, what would turn you Bull? on: May 14, 2014, 02:48:09 AM

April 2013 lol.

That guy mus be so sad he sold all his bitcoin in april 2013.

I have a feeling that perhaps he didn't sell all his coins back then.

I wouldn't shed any tears for proudhon, I get the feeling he's doing just fine.

still the only bitcointalk member that I know of that has had a song written about him. (other than satoshi of course.)
1498  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hey Bears, what would turn you Bull? on: May 14, 2014, 02:33:39 AM
"what would it take for me to become a bull?"
hehe, nice question. I'm not exactly "your average bear" but I am not especially bullish for perhaps the next couple months...



that's a virtex chart I posted last week, if we break above that line and hold above it for a week or so, then I would still be cautious.

I can't remember why I came up with my target, but until we hold above 620 (CAD on virtex) for more than 24 hours I still consider us to be deep in the woods.

no technical backing at all, just my thoughts, take them with a grain of salt, they're tastier that way Wink
1499  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 14, 2014, 12:56:31 AM
God damnit btc, stop procrastinating this drop; just get it over with.

ahh, but when you get old and you look back on this whole bitcoin thing, you will realize that anticipation was the best part.


1500  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 10, 2014, 06:19:46 AM
Another advantage of Second Market is that you do not need to worry about safe storage, private keys, exchanges being hacked or being scammers etc - although of course Second Market charges you a lot of $$$ for that. Perhaps even more importantly, you can be very technology naive, never have bit coin wallet etc

What is so difficult about a safe bitcoin wallet? All you have to do is write down your key somewhere, put it in some encrypted file, or remember some way to hash out your key or hash out a brainwallet password. Anyone putting a serious amount of money into bitcoin should have the time to figure out how to do this.  Meanwhile, if you invest with SecondMarket, you take the extra unneccessary RISKS of your funds being stolen by SecondMarket, seized by the government, lost to bankruptcy, lost to hackers, etc. and you can't even use your coins anywhere.

the problem is that the rich people that we're trying to steal the money (power) from are much stupider than you give them credit for.

this will take some time.
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