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1901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 02:07:22 PM
I will buy a lambo when I can get one for < 5 btc.

edit: forget that, I'd actually like something that doesn't run on fossil fuels. Are there any green super cars?



McLaren P1 plug-in hybrid. http://cars.mclaren.com/p1.html

Sorry to be a killjoy but for the time being fuck the Lambos!  Smiley

Please everyone prepare a small amount of your stash (doesn't have to be anything more than one twentieth perhaps?) in a wallet that is as easy for you to use and as portable as possible.

Then buy small stuff! A hamburger, a Zynga APP, a sex toy... doesn't matter what just do it!

If you want the growth to continue then merchants have got to report sales or it won't work in the long term.

Boring I know, but for most the Lambos will come a bit later!  Wink

I disagree with that bolded statement. Perhaps if you are talking about the growth in profits for the payment processors, then you would be correct.

bitcoin is much more that just a payment processing platform.

please listen to this, I found it brought me back down to earth a bit and made me reconsider/remember why I'm really in this game. especially the second half where that Andreas guy is talking about his different experiences at various conferences.

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/e72-powerful-perspectives/
1902  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 03:43:26 AM

this is the now infamous "super-exponential" chart ... it has closer correlation with current price data 0.945 (than the simple log plot , 0.9) ... posted here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg4227238#msg4227238

if we really are going super-exponential (and it is remote possibility if we are looking at step-change adoption event on the S-curve, akin to an algal population bloom) ... then much mind will be blown.



And much 1MB block size will be blown too...

I don't know why but this super-exponential thing is starting to grow on me ... surely it is impossible. It just seems like the market action is more like reverting to trend .... seems like pretty solid gains than any bubbly toppy mania getting ready to plunge back into the abyss (i.e. back to trend)

My heart (and wallet) likes the super-exponential fit, but my head still goes with the straight-line on a log-chart. Perhaps it will bounce around between $800 and $1200 for a few more months. June/July seems to be "right" time for $1000 as a norm. It still leaves $2000 due in Oct/Nov this year.



someone else posted this chart - https://www.tradingview.com/e/eBL7nAJN/  it's a straight-line on a log chart and I like it very much.

It's very cool, if you zoom out and scroll left you can see the exact same angle of move when compared to the beginning of the run up to the April high. If you scroll back further you can see the mini-run to 15 that kick-started this whole thing. Unfortunately it does not seem to go far enough back to see the run up to 32, but I suspect it looks quite similar.

The thing I find most interesting is that after each run was a longish period of consolidation.

I would wish for nothing more than a 2 month period where we could stay in a range of 1000 plus or minus 200.

Beware that I also think that the longer the consolidation period, the more violent the breakout, but then again, I'm just some joker on the internet and nothing I say means anything.

I'm turning off my alarms and looking forward to a nice, long, sleep. good night now.
1903  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 01:42:48 AM
But it seems I can't type. Once more:

Super Exponential. Because exponential is for pussies.

I like the original better.
1904  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 01:37:49 AM
here is a fun chart. i forgot where i got it.

this is the now infamous "super-exponential" chart ... it has closer correlation with current price data 0.945 (than the simple log plot , 0.9) ... posted here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg4227238#msg4227238

if we really are going super-exponential (and it is remote possibility if we are looking at step-change adoption event on the S-curve, akin to an algal population bloom) ... then much mind will be blown.



This is the infamous super exponential chart on log-log paper (super-exponential paper).



Super Exponential. Because exponential is pussies.

BEST. CHART. EVAR.
1905  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 01:23:37 AM
Bitcoin Bulls -> "Price will go up to $10,000 and beyond without making serious corrections downward on its way there."

Bitcoin Bears -> "Price is currently a bit too high and is due for a major correction. We will eventually get to $10,000 but we aren't going there soon."

Bitcoin Bears are le sad  Cry

sorry you missed the train Wink

Not so fast. Looks like major resistance up ahead after we hit a 24 hour high on Mtgox.

Yeah, I see, looks like all except china did a little face-plant there...

I deserve it. Arrogance and avarice and all that.

*edit* actually, that looked a lot like a cash out on multiple exchanges by the same entity at the same time (something I expect bitpay would do when they need to clear a transaction)

did someone just buy a lambo?
1906  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 01:16:52 AM
Bitcoin Bulls -> "Price will go up to $10,000 and beyond without making serious corrections downward on its way there."

Bitcoin Bears -> "Price is currently a bit too high and is due for a major correction. We will eventually get to $10,000 but we aren't going there soon."

Bitcoin Bears are le sad  Cry



sorry you missed the train Wink
1907  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 12:57:15 AM
mini-poll:

How long will it take for bitstamp to break through that wall at 830?

I get quite nervous when I see flat tops and bottoms periods on these chart thingys.

Having so much fun, didn't even notice that 830 is long gone now. (looks like it lasted about 8 hours)
1908  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 12:44:10 AM
i like this chart!   thanks

If nothing changes we should have a new ATH on 22.01.14.

https://www.tradingview.com/e/eBL7nAJN/

BTW. This chart is not made by me.

Are you serious? Just deforming a chart to be able to draw a straight line does not mean that this line is useful in any sense.

it is very useful for me! brb going to go troll some other websites!


"Holy fuck that chart makes sense actually, might be the reason china is racing to 5k today"

and you doubted that chart and my ability to troll with it!   http://boards.4chan.org/g/res/39316850    Grin

lulz, that is epic. I'd love to reply with the "sad bear that missed the train" pic there but I don't know how to 4chan...
1909  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2014, 12:19:09 AM
Does anyone do "choo choo motherfuckers" t-shirts?

Ha. Would love one but maybe mf is better. Cant really have that in public.

Why not? With mf I would never wear it. Lame.

But I know Americans are a bit sensitive wrt swearings. Doesn't the word shit get bleeped? Cheesy

motherfuckers was not a 4-letter-word last time I counted.


fuck, the key part of that work is four letters. not something i would were to pick up my 6 year old kid from school here in the usa. it is not illegal but unpolite.

Of course not in that situation, but I want that sad bear one on the back of a black T shirt with a huge golden Bitcoin symbol on the front to wear at parties.

Kind of a big "fuck you" to everyone who told me I was stupid for running my computers at full blast, 24/7. (having mofo or mf on there kind of defeats the purpose)
1910  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2014, 11:53:39 PM
Mofo is a US law firm. I'm not kidding. mofo.com

Works for the t-shirt though!

Nope. Does not work. Needs the whole thing.



much want!
1911  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2014, 11:10:59 PM
mini-poll:

How long will it take for bitstamp to break through that wall at 830?

I get quite nervous when I see flat tops and bottoms periods on these chart thingys.
1912  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2014, 10:52:15 PM
Great numbers on the exchange! Hope this keeps up.
Heard something about netflix today. Anyone know any info on that? Also has their been any updates on how we plan on being able to handle of the transactions that will be pouring in?

Max Keiser rumour.

Quote
Max Keiser ‏@maxkeiser 4 t
The same source that told me back on Nov. 20th that Zynga was going into BTC https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/statuses/403240571491217409
is saying Netflix is considering BTC

ah, crap, I can't remember. Am I supposed to buy the rumour and sell the news? or was that the other way around??

Dammit, investing is hard  Undecided
1913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2014, 10:49:05 PM
Mtgox Buy Wall @ $910 is magnificent! I salute you, wall!  Cheesy

So we have people encouraging each other not to sell and now 'saluting' an obvious manipulative wall which will keep the price higher for a while.

Sell you morons! Fuck you fake wall.

Feel better now?

lol, I do feel much better now. Thank you Doc.
1914  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why didn't you sell? on: January 04, 2014, 06:23:47 PM
I vaguely remember seeing this thread earlier in December, but I quickly dismissed and ignored and missed out on some interesting discussion. I'm glad it got a little play today and that I was able to catch up.

I'm simply posting in here to make it easier for me to come back here and re-read this stuff every time I make a few winning trades and my ego needs a little reality check.

This experience taught me so much about bitcoin, and more importantly about myself, what my greed and fear looked like, how they affected me. Why I did the things I did.

^this^ part especially speaks to me. I'm still trying to understand the *why* of the actions I take, but I am starting to understand why I feel so anxious when the price is going up and why I feel calm when it's crashing. This recent revelation about myself has allowed me to now solidify a position that I feel comfortable with moving forward (as long as we don't break through $4000 range before May - In which case, I'm sure the anxiety attacks will resume, though I hope I will be better equipped to rationally analyze the reasons for my feelings and be able to adjust my position accordingly)


--as to the OP question, I actually did sell. and I went through a swirling range of emotions that caused me to buy back in at 850, sell again at 950-999 range, and then I was lucky enough to get those coins back through a tranche from 800 all the way down to 450. That wasn't smart, educated, or well-advised. It was an emotionally driven series of moves made through panic and fear that caused me real-life physical and emotional distress.

This time I was lucky. I will not be doing that again.
1915  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2014, 03:07:17 PM
Come on Fat Controller. Get out of the way!  Grin



Lol!

Was I the only one that glanced at that and read "The Fiat Controller" ??
1916  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 04, 2014, 03:09:55 AM
Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.
Perhaps what wouldn't fit is a reemergence of a bull market. Surpassing the top of the previous bull trap. Reaching new ATHs. Saying it's a bull trap on the way up isn't wrong until it... is.  I recall responding to a similar post ~ $1k (Gox) on the last bull trap.

I wouldn't be too sure of any position right now. I do know that being bearish at $1k made me a shitload of money. Being bearish at $830 cost me ~ $10/coin + fees. But I consider it worth it for the expected value at the time. Small losses are okay for an opportunity at big gains.

While I think there is upside left, I am unconvinced that this is a sustainable rally (read: emergence of bull market). Do you recall sentiment when Gox passed $1k ~12/9? I do.

thank you MAbtc. This is a lesson that bears repeating. (hehehe)

The underlined part above rings especially true for me - I try to remember that I am not infallible, and if you remain open-minded, you can sometimes avoid ruin, and instead you only take a $10 haircut.

Huh

All I guess I want to say is: don't be afraid to take profit when you're up, and don't be afraid to take a loss when you see the tide turning.
1917  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2014, 02:01:28 AM
Jonesing for some Bitcoin excitement. Think I may go drive the wrong way down the interstate at 120mph.

I just got some Bitcoin excitement by going to see Toronto's first BTC ATM. It's also the first Canadian-made BTC ATM, made in Ottawa.

Unfortunately it wasn't running. Apparently it was working a couple of nights ago for the grand unveiling but I had something way better to do that night involving good company and good food. Dude said it should be fully operational within 2 weeks.

It was still a little rough, accepting only $5, $10 and $20 bills and was one-way, accepting fiat for bitcoins but not vice-versa. Dude assured me both matters would be rectified.

Like the Robocoin, it will either scan a QR code or print out a newly created paper wallet, but unlike the Robocoin there is no palm scan involved. I wonder how long that will last.

Oddly, dude said the exchange rate is based on Bitstamp, not Virtex. He also said that at the moment the ATM has to be manually loaded with coins until they establish a relationship with an exchange.

Current fees are 5% but dude said they would be reduced as more ATMs are added and as overall volume increases. He stressed that fees were intentionally less that Robocoin and implied active competition.

Still, 5% barely covers the cost of getting fiat over to Bitstamp. Maybe they're large-scale miners with a surplus to be converted to fiat to cover expenses/financing.

Whatever, it was an exciting break from watching the charts obsessively.  Smiley

Edit- Here's a picture

https://i.imgur.com/O9MnxYn.jpg

Well done! I'm sitting here in northern Alberta and still no ATM's, and yet the largest Canadian exchange is just 3 hours south.

perhaps virtex sees the ATM's as competition, yes?
1918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 03, 2014, 07:19:04 PM
I would like if someone could explain this to me. How someone who is mining BTC can be a bull? I mean miners sell at some point for whatever reason don't they?

As a miner, I will try to answer your question, but first, the preamble:

sure, I'm a miner, and I have a small portion of my mined funds that I play around with on the exchange. I also have mined well over 1000 bitcoins yet I now have less than 50 left to show for it.

I still think I classify as a bull, even though I may have thrown away a fortune. If I didn't have the foresight or the belief that bitcoin would succeed then I never would have upgraded my hardware and never come close to 1000 bitcoin, (though I still might have reached 50)

I think there is great potential for the bitcoin protocol, but I have very little spare fiat to invest, so I very slowly mined bitcoin and then bought additional mining capacity as time went on. I have made some mistakes and some incredibly profitable purchases along the way.

My thinking was always that I felt it was more important to *know* about bitcoin and how it works than to just *have* bitcoin.

I must admit that I don't understand every little detail or nuance of the bitcoin protocol, but I have almost 3 years first-hand experience with how it works, and I think that's worth something.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, in an attempt to answer "How someone who is mining BTC can be a bull?"

A miner is intrinsically linked to the bitcoin system. A miner might simply want to cash out immediately into fiat, or might want to hold. The simple fact is that in both scenarios a higher bitcoin price is the desired outcome. If one felt that the price was going to drop, especially in the face of the exponential increase in difficulty, that person would likely sell their hardware, and would no longer be a miner.

Now that I think about it, I'm not sure how one could even be a miner without being a bull?
1919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 03, 2014, 05:47:55 PM

I am assuming you are talking about an online wallet!?
This is no better than the banks that are trying to be undermined. Except you have less recourse if they decide to close up shop and take account funds with them.

At the moment online wallets have some bad press but they are the future of Bitcoin for most people. They will also be regulated of course and be required to insure deposits.

FDIC or the like would make it a different story, but it all costs (and good luck getting the Fed to insure BTC deposits). Private insurance will likely be uneconomical for such a use unless those funds are available to lend or invest to produce revenue for the wallet site.
If some form of insurance can be had, then great!

I'm don't think they could ever insure your bitcoin properly. At best, they might offer to refund "equivalent value" in USD (or whatever the gov't fiat is in your country)
1920  Economy / Speculation / Re: Losing all hope on: January 03, 2014, 05:23:23 PM
never lose hope
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