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1741  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 11, 2014, 01:51:03 AM

it was probably a trader that stayed up all night to read the gox update, when it finally came in, he thought this is it the protocol is broken, and sold in a panic thinking the price would not bounce back because "this is the end of bitcoin"

and yes traders should have low ball orders for panic sells like this

probably wouldn't do much for the price, but it will mean cashing in on retarted panic sells

To be honest we have grown 2 orders of magnitude, and when you trade in a foreign currency you sometimes make mistakes.

I think he hit sell at $60 not 600 thinking mBTC.  I think he is OK. Got most of his order filled at a good price. Definitely lack of sleep.

wow, I think this is the most likely scenario I have heard. (Adrian's hypothesis, not Adam's)  I have once done the same sort of thing, hitting buy instead of sell, and your buy price is so low that all your coins go poof! I can imagine a scenario where someone who is long on fiat wants to put in a nice lowball order like buy 1000 bitcoin for 100 each. Instead he hits sell 1000 bitcoin for 100 each.

I've done it once, luckily I trade in 0.1 bitcoin increments, and btw, I hate all that mBTC "we need to change the standard so people can understand it easier"... maybe it will become the case in the future, but anyone playing with bitcoin right now needs to at minimum be able to understand the decimal system

(appologies, but while we're at it, could we please get the Europeans to just adopt the . as the decimal? and not the comma? like, 1.000.000,00 is just the wrong way to depict a million dollars. - sorry bout decimal rant)
1742  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: February 11, 2014, 01:21:58 AM
Done with Gox
Explanation

YAY! way to go ChartBuddy!

any chance you could add CaVirtex chart? (I realize there is very little demand for such a chart, but I would be very curious to see how it looks in that format and compared to one of the "big-boy" exchanges  Grin
1743  Economy / Economics / Re: WTF BTC = 500USD!!! on: February 10, 2014, 01:46:55 PM
Shit fuck
Lol one more panic attack ..! BTC's are more thrilling then roller coaster ride, it depends on you whether you enjoy the ride or not..! 

I agree that it's a thrilling ride, but I think the rider's enjoyment is greatly influenced on where they boarded the roller coaster. If your entry point is below $100 then I expect you enjoy the ride very much, If you got on at somewhere over 800, then it might not be so much fun.
1744  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2014, 02:36:55 PM
Clearly a winning strategy here is to hold limit orders far outside of market prices for flash movements. Then after the positions are filled, you quickly liquidate them once the movement has corrected itself. It is practically a 0 risk strategy.

I'm not a real trader, but that has been my strategy on virtex for a long time. Partially because the high fees force me to have my limit orders at quite a large spread anyways, and that virtex is so small and illiquid, that the flash movements can cut very deep, both ways.

I always extend my tranche far beyond what I feel is a rational price, because the big price moves are seldom rational.
1745  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2014, 02:16:06 AM
Ok so it seems Gox is just going to be dead. Other exchanges are already getting ready to replace it from there.

-> http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-takes-first-step-to-becoming-us-exchange-with-new-seller-service/

apologies on posting out of turn, still catching up, but this second market thing started out like this exclusive club, only for "sophisticated" investors.

And now some bat-shit crazy mofo like myself with a measly 25 bitcoin in my wallet can get in on the action?

Whatever, I guess I'm glad to be part of the club?
1746  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 06:01:08 AM

I'm curious as to which mining equipment purchase put you under water on your mining operation?

Even the most expensive miner I have ever purchased - a Jupiter for 70 bitcoins, I walk past it every day as a reminder of my "$70,000" mistake, even though it's getting close to breaking even -  even that was not such a bad deal to turn me off of bitcoin mining...

I'm just curious to hear what might have been the straw to break the back of your mining operation, in the hopes that I can avoid a similar fate. Also curious as to what equipment you have on order.

thanks

Not so much underwater as close to wondering if things will work out.  I bought Asic usb sticks.  Total for 15 units = $260.91 for 6.14 ghs or 42.43 per gig.

On order = CoinCraft A1 ASIC.  'They' say it should be shipping any day now.  A benefit, they say, is an increase in hashing power to make up for being two months late.   Angry

The straw that is getting hard to carry is the increase in difficulty coupled with the massive increase in equipment that has gone live.  The difficulty is the same for all of us, but the deep pockets guys are hitting the streets running.

Right now, the variance at my selected pool is, to use a vulgar expression, the shits.

Thanks for the honesty OldGeek. I was gonna reply privately, but then I thought that would not be in keeping with the idea of keeping everything for posterity in the Wall Observer (I consider this thread to be kinda like the blockchain of the speculation forum.) so here goes..

Sorry to hear about the usb miners, not familiar with the CoinCraft, what Gh/s do they predict?

I guess it's becoming true that casual mining is coming to an end. If I had not started early I would not have been able to build and finance my current farm, and there might come a time that I too am made unprofitable by the ever increasing difficulty....

It's kinda sad for the casual miner, but I think the mining infrastructure will self-regulate. Without profit incentive, the miners will jump ship without a second thought. (just an observation on the Scrypt mining scene lately)

Anyways, thanks again for the response.

1747  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 05:06:56 AM
Shocked



I very much hope your projection is proven true. I did quite well with my sub-500 bids last time, I would be overly excited if I would get a second chance at those prices.

to add a little humour... http://youtu.be/SpLtvi-_vjQ?t=8m59s
1748  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 04:58:44 AM
Well that is a different kettle of fishes all together!

I'm in fairly decent shape other than the mining enterprise.  I'm fairly certain (P= 0.99) that my initial buy-in is safe at 122.  My trading account is full fiat atm.  But I haven't had the funds to keep up my percentage of the mining spectrum.  I have more equipment on order, but you know, 'delays' and the difficulty is what's really going to the moon.

I'm also mining, also equipment on order (pre-order actually.. KnC and CoinTerra)

I'm curious as to which mining equipment purchase put you under water on your mining operation?

Even the most expensive miner I have ever purchased - a Jupiter for 70 bitcoins, I walk past it every day as a reminder of my "$70,000" mistake, even though it's getting close to breaking even -  even that was not such a bad deal to turn me off of bitcoin mining...

I'm just curious to hear what might have been the straw to break the back of your mining operation, in the hopes that I can avoid a similar fate. Also curious as to what equipment you have on order.

thanks
1749  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 04:40:45 AM
the most fiat I can scrape together is $1000.

If I deposit into my exchange account I won't be able to buy BTC for 3 days.

If I hold it and BTC goes stupid low within the next 3 days, I can zoom into Vancouver and use the ATM

Decisions, Decisions.

I heard it's like a 7% fee on that machine... you might want to contact the Kelowna branch and just transact in person. I'm sure if you contact them before hand you should be able to negotiate a better deal.

Or fly to Calgary.

Or Toronto. <- easterners are always slow on the pickup (*purely Albertan bias coming through*)

Not sure where you live, but there are other options...


*edit* not sure how I missed the whole $1000 limit thing. I would recommend stalking local bitcoins for a while. people will always be willing to let bitcoins go cheap for one reason or another, just gotta be in the right place at the right time. Just wait for it, it will come.
1750  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 03:56:12 AM
Take a look at the volume of buys vs sells, this looks like big money trying to pick up cheap coins.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2?op=1


Excellent read. Thank you.
1751  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 03:31:00 AM
It has constantly amazed me how people have continued to use Gox over these last 6+ months when exchanges like Bitfinex and Bitstamp have provided lower fees, better service and WITHDRAWALS.

I would assume in a rational world that these current circumstances, whether Gox dies or not, will wake people up to the idioticy of trading on Gox. I can't, however, assume that the bitcoin world is a rational world. It's not.

But I do think that little by little every last moron will get the message and get out of there and on to some place else.

Meanwhile I will continue to look forward to the day where we have a professional, licensed and regulated exchange in New York.

I also look forward to this day. Not just in New York, but in every major city in the world.

Here's a nice start on some best practices for running a bitcoin exchange.



https://www.cavirtex.com/faq




(Please note: understanding the regulations in your country is pivotal on whether or not you can operate a bitcoin exchange without being put in a cage.)
1752  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 03:00:58 AM
whoever that is on stamp with the 730 wall should just let it drop.

let's get some momentum going already.
1753  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 02:49:02 AM
heh, check virtex orderbook for the lulz

Buying BTC
Created    Amount    Price    Value
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    849.10002    42.46 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    849.00002    42.45 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.90002    42.45 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.80002    42.44 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.70002    42.44 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.60002    42.43 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.50002    42.43 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.40002    42.42 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:15 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.30002    42.42 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:15 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.20002    42.41 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:16 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.10002    42.41 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:16 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.00002    42.40 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.90002    42.40 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.80002    42.39 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.70002    42.39 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.60002    42.38 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.50002    42.38 CAD
Jan. 31, 2014, 8:38 a.m.    2.5726/2.5726    847.50000    2180.28 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:18 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.40002    42.37 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:18 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.30002    42.37 CAD

that my friends is the Canadian equivalent of Willy... hahahahaaa

This slicing of orders is common. Here is my understanding of why people do that:

If you post a single bid for 21 BTC @ 800, some other jerk may post his bid for 21 BTC @ 800.01, then you will not get anything until hs bid is filled.

If you spread your bid into 21 bids of 1 BTC @ 790, 791, 792, ..., 800, 801, ..., 809, 810, you will ultimately pay the same amount, but now the jerk cannot
get ahead of you by bidding just one penny more.

If he posts 21 @ 810.01 he will lose a lot of money, if he post 21 @ 800.01 you will gobble up 10 BTC before he gets anything,
if he splits his order too at 790.01, 791.01, etc. you both will get served together.

So, splitting seems to be a better strategy than lumping, very roughly speaking.

Does this make sense?



Thank you. That makes perfect sense.
1754  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 02:07:31 AM
heh, check virtex orderbook for the lulz

Buying BTC
Created    Amount    Price    Value
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    849.10002    42.46 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    849.00002    42.45 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:13 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.90002    42.45 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.80002    42.44 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.70002    42.44 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.60002    42.43 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.50002    42.43 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:14 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.40002    42.42 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:15 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.30002    42.42 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:15 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.20002    42.41 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:16 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.10002    42.41 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:16 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    848.00002    42.40 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.90002    42.40 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.80002    42.39 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.70002    42.39 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.60002    42.38 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:17 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.50002    42.38 CAD
Jan. 31, 2014, 8:38 a.m.    2.5726/2.5726    847.50000    2180.28 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:18 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.40002    42.37 CAD
Feb. 6, 2014, 12:18 p.m.    0.0500/0.0500    847.30002    42.37 CAD


that my friends is the Canadian equivalent of Willy... hahahahaaa
1755  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 02:02:57 AM
When people can't see bitcoinwisdom, then most can't see how the new rise has weak support with weak volume. They can only see that the price is rising and they will buy in with less fear.. and then there can be more big dumps. Bitstamp is currently at 790, while there is decent buy support only at 772. But I bet the religious zealots are already buying in because it seems to be going to da m00n.
Like I told yesterday, this dance will last a long time, until all the "right whales" have sold their coins to the choo choo folks for the right price.

If can't see Bitcoin wisdom I am out!

Especially with all this other dodgy shit going on at the moment.

'bye Mat.
1756  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 07, 2014, 02:01:47 AM
didn't see anyone else post it.. Gavin live at CFR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgFUAhz7h2U

Thanks Mike.

What the hell was that? It felt like an Oprah interview. And the question at the end, who the hell was that guy and why did the moderator deem it necessary to remind him that he was speaking "on the record"?

He was either very nervous, or just a plant acting nervous, to get that great (seemingly rehearsed) response from Gavin to close the PR stunt.





And then the markets crash!

 Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
1757  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2014, 05:59:39 AM
Hmm is it possible that Gox is still relevant and drags the market down with it ?
Why would I sell if people on Gox are stuck and can't withdraw ?

when gox starts to drop, everyone else starts to think their exchange might have problems too, or at the very least, the price will drop due to the movement on gox.. a self-fulfilling prophecy.
1758  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2014, 05:43:46 AM
Gox dropping and stamp more-or-less staying the same is a good signal in my book. It needed to happen sooner or later.

(Of course I'd prefer if stamp rose to meet Gox, but that wouldn't make sense, now would it.)

after small 775 and 774 walls crumble liek dust, we will soon see single digits!

MUUAAHAAHAAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAHH

(no, but seriously, after those are eaten it looks to be a long way down)
1759  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2014, 05:33:27 AM
let it go, let it go already. don't fight the price!

it wants to drop, so let it!

pull all your asks!

:edit:
 yess!!! stamp!! let the blood flow!
1760  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2014, 04:32:16 AM


As amusing as that is, perhaps it also serves as a subtle reminder that if 'these types of people' really wanted to nail Bitcoin, it would so so easy for them to do it.


Ah Mat, perhaps a subtle reminder that it will not be so easy to simply "nail" bitcoin. In its core design it is uncontrollable. A world without bitcoin *or something like it* will be a world without freedom. The price can do what it wants, but in the long term, this whole thing comes down to a binary outcome.
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