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1384
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 03, 2014, 12:46:16 AM
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Quick poll: Is there anyone here except MatTheCat, Jorge, Igorr who does not consider the log trendline to be indicative of future performance, and the price action of the past month or two to be reversion to the trendline?
Me and I'm pretty much all-in (not a huge position - but the majority of my liquid assets). There is no way the log trend is going to hold. I'm predicting a relatively slower growth rate (with wide variance - but definitely below 1000%/year). man I hope you're right. slow and steady, just stay under the radar for as long as possible. |
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1385
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 02, 2014, 11:20:37 PM
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ok, like WTF just happened,
I get home from work and I'm really starting to wonder if my job is not costing me more in lost opportunity than it provides in stability...
Some whale made a 600 BTC market order on Bitstamp which took Bitcoin from $640-$660 within 10 seconds. Then there was a 750 Ask Wall at $665. It sat for about 5 minutes followed by selling pressure eating the wall away....then I went to watch Game of Thrones and when I came back, we are in a double top or bullish breakthrough do or die market situation. Totally counter intuitive. Doesn't make sense. That is because this is not mass market psychology, this is the intentions and/or machinations of an individual entity. With a market as cornered and as engineered as Bitcoin, all TA or common sense goes out the window. I am currently bullish on Bitcoin, but this shit just does not make sense. It is worrying tbh that the market can be pushed around like this as though Bitcoin were some Shitcoin. Thanks Mat, I certainly didn't see it coming, though I did buy at that short-term bottom, still not willing to sell, still hoping we will blow through that 680 level at some point and then overextend and fall back to 680 as support, for a few weeks (days???  ) I'm sure that this market (all markets) are manipulated, I'm still curious to see if open, transparent manipulation of bitcoin is any better or worse than the closed and "regulated" manipulation of other markets. it's fun to watch it play out 
I could buy Bitcoin, or I could take 10K down the casino and put it all on red.
I'd recommend that if you can take a neutral, honest, and non-emotional approach to the idea of bitcoin in general, that you will do much better in the long term than betting on red. |
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1387
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 02, 2014, 12:58:16 AM
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There was no large "first dump" till $670, just small sells. Dumps started at $655 and down. Although they are still in profit by selling at $650  I should have said "first dumps" (plural). Sure, people who sold at $650 still made a profit, but that's no big thing. Most people here would make a profit selling at $200, wouldn't they? Selling at the bottom of this minor correction doesn't make a lot of sense.I'm hoping that buying at the bottom of this minor correction makes more sense.. 670 to 675 range was holding as resistance for a while, (*cavirtex numbers and chart*) I'm hoping that it will now become support for the next leg up.  that's what I'm hoping anyways. |
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1388
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 01, 2014, 10:11:57 PM
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I propose the name of "beer" to replace the stupid sounding "millibit" as the widely accepted term for 0.001 bitcoin. Oh tnx adam i got my first cyber-beer.
Im going to sleep now . Anybody can guess what price will be in about 9hours?
my guess is about the same as it is right now. feels like we were setting up for that spike all day. time for a little breather I hope. |
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1389
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 01, 2014, 09:27:22 PM
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wife needs computer
open bar is close for 20 mins.
lol! You should thank your wife for pulling your drunk ass away and saving you some money. That was incredibly awesome and generous by the way Adam. Much appreciated by everyone. If we ever meet up in person, Id like to buy you a beer, or seven, maybe next year's Toronto conf? |
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1391
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 31, 2014, 08:37:02 PM
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If he has more coins ready and is smart he should stop putting up walls for a little while and slowly put them back again on the way up.
If he keeps adding these walls it might actually stop us from going up for a while and he will be forced to market sell or put a new wall up way lower.
Maybe that is what he is doing. He just happens to have a LOT of coins to sell. PS: I'm also struggling to make sense of the wall movements today. The seller seem genuinely interested in selling a chunk at this price level. If he wanted to bring the price down he would have dumped. It would have been easy for him to do when we were below $590 imo, but he waited until we were well above $600, and until the bullish sentiment had returned. When/if he removes the walls everything will be ready and primed to go higher (BTC-e is the only major exchange that is behind). This is the best I can come up with  He dont care what the price is today he is selling because of the date. Now you got me worried. He might know something we don't. If he suddenly starts dumping because this is going to slow we might have a problem. why would you have a problem? you don't trade. remember? if the price dumps it's definitely not a problem to me, or anyone else who can only buy a set amount per month or paycheck. as I said before, these institutional miners are playing a beneficial role in stabilizing the price. something that was unexpected to me, at first/ |
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1392
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 31, 2014, 08:20:39 PM
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It seems more likely that consciousness is rationalization after the actions.
mmm ... it's a very interesting thought, thank you. I still think there is something beyond consciousness, perhaps sub-conscious or super-conscious, that dominates our existence. or rather, something outside our understanding of this reality that we are constantly in communication with, yet completely unaware of. |
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1394
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 31, 2014, 07:19:33 PM
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You don't need to solve the equations though. In a deterministic universe, if you know precisely the starting conditions, you could run a simulation and get the prediction. Chaos theory says that small perturbations in the starting conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes. Quantum physics says small perturbations are intrinsic. Even with two initially identical systems, things will occur in one which will not in the other.
This is precisely why I don't believe in the concept of free will. Humans are too complex to model, but in the long run we won't be. if that is true then there is a non-local hidden variable. let's just agree right now to call it the soul, to save time. it seems reasonable, we can call it whatever we want. soul is as good a word as any. it does seem that there needs to be some kind of outward influence though. or inward even, as it feels like this influence manifests itself though our actions? |
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1395
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 31, 2014, 05:07:54 PM
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Dont Forget......Very bullish on thread count we will break 7000 in 2 hours  What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party! would be interesting to watch... We should start drawing a log chart with the BTC exchange rate and the number of posts in this thread and watch the "spread" shrinking week after week Done - We are roughly looking at September 2015, unless we align during the March 2015 bubble cycle...  edit: Sorry about all the white space! (*white space removal free of charge this is beautiful. Thank you.
What about the day that Bitcoin prices surpass the number of thread pages on the Wall Observer? Now that is worth a party!
Totally agree! and that day shall become known as an international holiday. Wall Observer Thread Parity Day! (*I'm sure someone can come up with a better name*) But yeah, logarithmic functions are really mind blowing, for example: computers were not even imagined 1000 years ago. the internet was not even imagined 100 years ago. a solution to the problem of the double-spend* issue was not even imagined 10 years ago... I wonder what the next 1 year might bring? *also - quick thought I just had about that whole Byzantine Generals problem, which I have heard people say that bitcoin apparently solved. I'm not so sure about that.
I wonder if the computer science part of the problem was even addressed at all. I think what satoshi did was provide an incentive model as a workaround to the problem. By providing the generals enough incentive, you can effectively prevent them from acting maliciously, but this system still can not provably prevent malicious actors in the Byzantine Generals problem. at least as far as I understand it. |
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1396
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 31, 2014, 02:39:38 AM
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OK, this sucks, I can't even catch up to the whole thread, but I gotta go.
I just want to imbed this last thing into the wallchain before I go.
anyone who is still long in fiat needs to give their heads a shake.
fiat money steals from the children (both born and growing as well as the ones still on the way)
children are not stupid, they actually learn very quickly.
as long as we can keep information free on the internet, and provide low or no cost internet for everyone - including children - then the current system is doomed.
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1397
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 31, 2014, 01:52:16 AM
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Hey, guys? I just ate an entire can of tuna that turned out to be well past its sell-by date... and I think I suddenly saw the future!
Here, I made a drawing for you... I like to call it "the mother of all double tops".
Bwahahahahahahaha tea leaves analyst reveals a cup and handle
Hoohohohohohohoho Ya couple of phucking phannies. And now on to more pressing business. 1500BTC wall on Stamp at $615! - Erected to be devoured by the same hand(s) that put it their?
- Erected to be taken away in a few hours and/or as soon as buying pressure starts to eat into it?
- Genuine large chunk of selling pressure just aching to offload 1500 BTC right at the point where a bullish ascending triangle formation would be formed on 15 minute chart?
If I sound a little 'paranoid' or suspicious, it was the existence of a 2000 BTC wall on Stamp at $530, which encouraged me to leave my $460 long position at $520. That wall, was simply 'taken away'. wow Mat, very sad for you, but I think you're still doing it wrong. 460 long would have been an incredible (possibly life-changing) bet. hopefully you still have at least some bitcoin left. |
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1398
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 31, 2014, 12:44:45 AM
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Reccomended course of action for bull market breakouts (eg $460):
1. Rebuy all coins and move them into cold storage
2. Turn chart into 1W timeframe
3. Check the chart every week to make sure the apocalypse hasn't happened
4. Chill out for a few months using this protocol and do not attempt to trade at least until the ATH rally starts
5. You may wish to take a break from the forums also.
6. Do something productive such as a business project.
I was trying to follow this protocol but some jackass started posting intraday charts which showed up all over my Facebook feed so now I'm back here with my popcorn watching the intraday charts and wasting time.
haha, this makes perfect sense, I was wondering why you had gone missing for so long. Welcome back Enjoy the ride  *edit to add this little gem* God damn retarded trolls.
WHERE DO I SAY ANYTHING ABOUT MY OWN POSITION???
Oh wait if you look back you'll see that I went long at $460. I guess the joke's on you.
please feel free, nay, obligated to post here to let me know when you are thinking of selling much appreciated, -shmadz |
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1399
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 30, 2014, 03:16:29 AM
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In 115 weeks [the block reward] becomes only 14,000 BTC per week. A few years later it's 7,000 per week. I think you understand the maths here.
I confess that my math has not got there yet (sincerely). What will happen then? Will the miners start charging fees to make up for the difference? Or is the price of bitcoin expected to double at that moment? Or none of the above? Or both of the above? With questions like that, I'd recommend getting out of the wall observer thread and start taking an academic interest in bitcoin. no shit prof, that was one of the lamest troll attempts I think I have ever seen. |
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1400
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 30, 2014, 02:56:44 AM
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SecondMarket is buying up 1000 / 28,000 = 3.6% of the new bitcoin supply on a regular basis. Without the word "not" your bolded statement above is equally valid (and equally biased): they are big buyers!
Right. Thanks to SMBIT, traders only have to worry about the destination of ~27'000 BTC per week, rather than 28'000. Seriously, there is at least another bitcoin fund similar to SMBIT (Pantera Bitcoin Partners, PBP). Does anyone know how much they have and are buying? Weeks eh? In 115 weeks that becomes only 14,000 BTC per week. A few years later it's 7,000 per week. I think you understand the maths here. You have a problem with the "Satoshi blockchain" and you have a problem with the idea of a finite supply limit. No surprise; they are the same thing. shhhh, you don't want to scare the children. we must protect the children from this "funny money". PLEASE THINK ABOUT THE CHILDREN!!1 |
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