In late 2014 you can change the background to something like this   That's awesome Adam. but I've always thought the second picture should have a caption like... "I've got SAND! (pay no attention to the entire beach full of sand behind me)" or alternatively "I've got bitcoin! (pay no attention to those altcoins)"  |
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Hello thread. I can't believe I haven't been following this thread (or the previous incarnation) and I can't hope to read or comprehend most of it, but in last couple days, I've tried to catch up (impossible) and I think this is some of the most valuable information on the speculation board. Hats off to all contributors, and sorry to clutter up your thread, but... I just felt the need to share some non-technical "feelings" from someone with a less technical opinion (which I suspect are driven mostly by technicals, lol) Anyways, a few posts I wanted to respond to: Anyone else getting the eery feeling that luc's "long, painful slide down" prediction might become true after all?  YES! this feels eerily similar to the way it felt after the 32 bust, and the 266 (or whatever) bust. I'm hoping that this will last much longer than the 266 one though.  Guys I see no support between now and purple line at all. And purple line support is quite questionable.
I was seeing the same thing. I thought the natural progression line should be something like this: Obviously with a few pit stop along the way.  I very much hope this is the case, I get quite anxious when the price is too high. No legit target during few years. Fuck it, I go away.
Me too. When we were at 1000 On my trading account I was 80% fiat, 20% coins; then at 450 I was 20% fiat, 80% coins. Now, I've moved some extra coins back into storage to get me back closer to a 50-50 ratio and I'm looking forward to taking a "bitcoin vacation" (not a vacation paid for by bitcoin, more like just exiting the market for a while to relax a bit, this trading stuff is stressful for me) Anyhow, thanks again to all contributors, fascinating stuff!-------- (*DISCLOSURE*) I'm a miner, and my market position and perception is not good for anyone who does not have steady btc income. I simply place sells above and buys below.
Worst case for me are 2 scenarios:
1) Bitcoin fails. My account is cleaned out and I have 0 fiat and 100% bitcoin, but bitcoin is worthless. No big deal, I've been skimming off the top for years and I still have mining hardware that should be able to mine whatever the next coin might be. (of course if SHA-256 is broken then my ASIC's are worthless too, but my main advantage is my low overhead, but that's off-topic)
2) Bitcoin takes off and I missed the boat and I am now 0 bitcoin and 100% fiat. Oh bother. I only hold 10% of my BTC on the exchange and I can always make more. I can either just withdraw the fiat (and face potential tax consequences) or just leave the fiat there and try to catch some dips... |
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Update: well, that didn't take long, 575 was taken out like it wasn't even there, though the 450 level does seem to be putting up some resistance.
I'm still hopeful that we can break out to the down-side and start the new year off in the 150-200 range (which is still 1000% increase from previous Jan 1)
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Bitcoin is up over 1000% on a year to year basis. If one cares about these fluctuations, one has a very limited perspective.
All depends when you got in really. Those on this forum who were scathing latecomers for not holding at $1100, $1000, etc, need their heads stoved in. I am a latecomer, I have made money, but did I hold when the market started turning? Like hell I did. Did I make money by betting on a crash and bounce? Sure I did! Do I hope to do the same again? Damn right! Do I care that the market crash reduces some peoples Bitcoin speculation profts from 10000% to just 5000% and maybe even to just 2500%, or even less? Don't give a flying hoot! You sound like genius trader, you made millions trading forex already, right? No. I wouldn't say that I have a particularly great record trading. 2010-2011, I put about 30K GBP into precious metals, and we all know the story there. 2011, I was considering making a wildcard 500 GBP Bitcoin investment, just to support what I seen at the time as an anarchist initiative, but I just spend it all on Silk Road, the same as what I done with every coin I ever bought until Sept 2013. January 2013, I warned my brother away from the Bitcoin 'bubble' as it smashed through $30 reaching unthinkable parity with a 1 Oz Silver Round. In September 2013, I bought 15 Bitcoins, but at the first sign of a pullback in November 2013, I sold them whilst Bitcoin was around $340 trebling my money at the time, thinking I had done great. This series of Bitcoin follies resulted in a lot of self-disgust, but also the realisation that I was missing out on what I believe still could be, an investment opportunity of a lifetime. So I fainlly got my Bitstamp trading account authorised and approached the Bitcoin market tentatively, as Bitcoin kept on taking out ATHs on a daily basis. All in all, my Bitcoin trading amounts to an approximate of 6K profit since mid/late November. So far, since I have adopted a serious approach, I have done ok. I put this down to my ability to treat any opinion I have as completely disposable, the fact that I don't see Bitcoin as a 'noble cause' these days, but more the crypto-spawn of Satan (i.e. absolutely no emotional attachment to it), and most importantly, I don't pay any attention to the multitude of douchebags on this forum constantly telling everyone that 'bitcoin 4 tha Moon' or 'don't cry when you are buying back in at $1500'. I act on a combination of instinct and what the charts are blatantly telling everyone. My only interest in Bitcoin at this point in time is the opportunity it affords me, if I play my cards right, to turn some wedge. If Bitcoin should ever finally stabilise at any given price point, then perhaps I might come to value it as an alternative unit of account, but until then, its just one big Monte Carlo roller coaster. This is actually a very sane and cautious approach. Just keep your powder dry. |
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who knows. I hope it drops to 200. I wouldn't call that segment favorable. Its more the opposite.
I'm already 90% btc to 10% fiat in my trading account, though if it went that low I can always scrounge up more fiat. |
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The numbers and dates are taken very roughly from the 4 hour chart of Gox from bitcoinwisdom. Spoiler alert: stop reading now and make your choice. OK, I was just looking at that 4 hour chart and I'm wondering how many of those recent lows we are about to test. The chart looks kinda sick right now. And then I saw this from FOX http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV1t-YYkCiE ... Anytime I see fox giving a favourable interview or segment, I am very wary. And then the dude drops an obvious "BitCon" at the end (fast-forward to 8:00) and then it really makes me wonder... So what do you think? How low are we gonna go? |
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Bitcoin is volatile enough that bulls and bears can make money. Bears just had one hell of a weekend. Did any of them buy in after the exchange rate dropped about 50%? I hope so...
I see it as the opposite. Bulls would buy in when its low. Bears would think it was crashing to the floor and wait. I'm a believer that bulls win more than bears with bitcoin. That is not a bear -- more like a pig. A bear simply thinks the price will fall -- not that it will fall, like, forever. That part in italics is what I think is most accurate. Bears only hibernate for so long, and when they awaken from hibernation, they are very hungry. *edit* Just remembered the OP question and wanted to address that. As a miner, I'm kind of cheating when I play the market, so I can't really claim to be a bear or a bull. If I were a serious bear however, I still would have bought in after it broke a new high from that 720 pennant. At this moment, any serious bear is obviously waiting for a pullback, or selling what they have at some very nice prices and looking forward to going back into hibernation... |
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Thanks for this Sitarow. Pulling my asks now. |
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If your planning on trading your value by the hour, buy at anytime and only sell higher. If you buying to sit on it, it won't matter when you buy because the gains you experience will negate any savings you may have had trying to save a quick buck. When it breaks 1,000.. its going up up and away.. so perhaps wait for that. Or just do some more research in the meantime.
Your right, it really doesnt matter when I get in. I did a lot of research today and am now in for the long haul. It seems every trader has to go through this to learn. You can talk about it all day but nothing like actually playing the game while the price is diving and the LA Times is messing with your head with stupid articles. No selling, only buying from now on. Congratulations! I am simply heartbroken when I hear stories about people that didn't hit their target, and were too stubborn to change their target. For example: Recently I bought some bitcoin at 900 and was able to ignore my ego and overcome my pride in order to sell at 850, when that last crash happened. Sure, I would have been fine to just hold on at 900, but I would have missed out on the extra bitcoin from being able to buy back at prices below 700 (lowest order that filled was at 575) What I'm trying to say is that if you feel that you should adjust your position, don't be stubborn and refuse to take a loss. Similarly, when things are going well, don't be too stubborn to take a little profit off the top. |
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A another chance for some to sell at the 1000 dollar mark will bring some people who are fine with that... 1000 once passed .. sky's the limit
everyone that wanted to sell already settled for 800ish. up up up forever, welcome to bitcoin And those who wanted to buy already bought and are skeptical about paying $980. perhaps, sitting, waiting, the next few days should be interesting. as it almost always is. |
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This looks bearish.... better sell now b4 its too late.
you first. I didnt know you can sell to your own wall... awsome! This place is turning into the trollbox  that's awesome, I've always thought the trollbox had a certain appeal |
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Uh oh who can give me a train analogy of what is going on now? Where is that pic of the train on fire.
Brother John F can't make up his mind. One day he is saying we are headed to $3000 and another he is saying we are going to test $400. sometimes it's hard to reconcile the speed at which this is moving. that brother dude has been watching silver all his life and he just can't see it. |
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Everyone Betting On Bitcoin Will Lose All Of Their Money All of their money are belong to us ! <slowclap> Well done sir. |
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letting everything float freely isn't a scam, it is an evolution, a necessary step towards bitcoin.
truth |
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A prosperous societey means individual rights, private property AND the general understanding that being rich, not by being friend of the government types, but by the merit of making useful products or services for the consumer, is respectable and deserved.
But you can't have it both ways. There is nothing I did that made me potentially deserve anything when I bought a bitcoin. I simply exchanged one method of storing value for another. Sure, bitcoin has some usefulness as a tool for barter, but why would we attribute a value to it, when bitcoins being traded for bitcoins is pointless. If there is only a finite amount of value just as there is a finite amount of resources and people, then where is that value coming from?
The money's value is the sum of the value that all participants wants in reserve for the immediate future and for the long run. It is not a resource that you can consume, it's value for direct use is zero. The value comes from what you can exchange it for. There is no finite amount of value in money. dude, this is bang on. I bolded your stuff cuz this needs to be better understood. |
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9 out of 10 people didn't 'need' or 'want' the internet in the early 90's, give it time.
In fact, the company in charge of the glass fiber infrastructure needed months of advertising in order to get 30% of the region to accept glass fiber while fiber is clearly a huge advantage over what we have currently (note that in this region the maximum internet speed was about 8Mb/s before fiber)
I don't get this Internet comparison that people keep making. The Internet was largely used by researchers and scientists in the early 1990s, but basic packet switching technology merely serves as the foundation for the world wide web, which is what most people would now refer to simply as "the Internet". At this point in history, there was no reason for consumers to use the Internet unless they needed access to resources on university networks or something specific. But people certainly recognized the utility of the Internet and it was appreciated. Once the world wide web was developed and companies such as AOL released software portals for subscribers, the service took off almost overnight. There's no comparison with bitcoin. The world wide web and development of affordable personal computers ushered in a new paradigm. People could chat with strangers online who had similar interests, e-mail friends and family instantly, and gain access to a massive amount of information online. With bitcoin, you can... make payments over a peer to peer network. It's an interesting development in the world of currency, but it's not a game changer. Hence, the average person just isn't that interested in it, aside from the potential to make money from speculating. As long as nations and banks keep their books hidden and private, continuing to issue as much currency as they like, then yes, nothing will change. I truly hope that bitcoin and the distributed, verifiable blockchain system of transactions becomes the new standard. Just imagine if a nation or politicians or banks had to show you what they were really spending the money on. Actually. Fuck that. I usually try to be level headed but there is no real money anymore! Not dollars, not stocks, not gold. This whole financial system is one big scam. Bitcoin is the closest we have, and if you think this beta project is gonna go nice and smooth, you got another thing comin'. |
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crazy movements on btc-e. 830-770-850-817 in 10 minutes
Holy crap! I just looked at the chart, isn't that short candle with the long wicks called a doji or something? If so, what is it supposed to mean? |
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This is going to be tested very soon... Do you see the buy orders waiting to be filled ? Good luck Perhaps more buy orders on the way? Starting to look like December could be a very exciting month. cavirtex has so much constraint about money flow. it won't drive a thing, only Canadians interested in arbing will use it. I'm not sure what you mean about constraint. Once your account is verified, you can withdraw funds directly to your bank account. Takes a couple days. I know that little quirky exchange with the monstrous fees won't move anything on the global scale, but I've never seen a waiting list there before, and I wonder if a similar flood of new participants is occurring at the exchanges that matter. More importantly for me personally, are these new accounts after cheap coins? Or simply trying to cash in their hoards of coins before it's too late. Either way I will be watching this price point very closely. The market always seems to flatten out like this just before a big move. |
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This is going to be tested very soon... Do you see the buy orders waiting to be filled ? Good luck Perhaps more buy orders on the way? Starting to look like December could be a very exciting month. |
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Really hard to tell if the bottom is in yet. Not really sure what this means or if this is indicative of other exchanges but -> https://www.cavirtex.com/newsLots of new players, and the legislation in Canada has been somewhat favorable so far. I'm still waiting to see definitive tax laws regarding how mining income will be regarded. If I have receipts for $20,000 worth of mining equipment, can I write that off against taking withdrawls out of cavirtex? I have a few bids left, I personally hope this isn't over yet. |
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