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1401  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2014, 01:26:01 AM
[IMG virtex order book [/img]

did I just observe a wall?

*edit, replaced pic with better pic.

looks like the same walls that dance around following stamps price.

well, something seems to be happening...

Yea, even though on bitcoinwisdom, I seen 2 big red candles, the price has not moved that much. These resistant points  Grin

yeah, sorry bout that, I saw the little price spike on btc-e and thought we were going up again. I already deleted my post.

but it did start me thinking about arbitrage, which I kinda suspect would be the reason for such a move.

So, let's say, I've got a large amount of both fiat and bitcoin lying around at several exchanges. btc-e was like 15 dollars lower than stamp, so I buy like hell at btc-e and drive the price up to parity with stamp, and because the markets all twitch together as one, the move can cause the other exchanges up as well.

It's like supercharged arbitrage.
1402  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2014, 12:57:41 AM


did I just observe a wall?

*edit, replaced pic with better pic.
1403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 04:36:55 AM
They sure have been dumping many coins into 3500 over the past 24 hours. Maybe they doing us a favor certifying that 3500 is very strong support. If it holds it should shoot straight up no?

As soon as my money fiat clears, I'm buying half, and setting the other half in a tranche back down to 450 (CAD on virtex)

I'm not giving advice, I'm just saying what I might hypthecically do.

*edit for clarity  Cool

I'm currently 100% fiat and it doesn't feel good. I would love to get more coins, if the price goes up that is also nice Smiley

ok, I'm gonna stop posting now, cuz I'm probably just being stupid at this point, but if you are 100% fiat, how would the price going up be nice for you?

heavy into fiat has always been a scary place for me.


*edit* just to make certain that I break my own promise, I'd like to end with this

Quote
bitcoin might be the easiest and least violent way for the world to transition from a corrupt fiat money system into something else
1404  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 04:32:05 AM

Pulling a number literally from nowhere, it FEELS as if we are around 0.5%. Anyone have a more accurate number?

Don't do all super bull but if 1 in 20 wind up using Bitcoin in some way we are somewhere between 0.5 and 1% adoption. I'd think. Bitcoin won't have that much penetration but be happy if 1 in a 100 found it useful so maybe we're between 3 and 5 % total adoption or maybe you're a laggard, and we're bag holders. How long is a piece of string?

*to address the bolded part:

I think 1 in 20 gets us to 5% - just saying.
1405  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 04:28:29 AM
They sure have been dumping many coins into 3500 over the past 24 hours. Maybe they doing us a favor certifying that 3500 is very strong support. If it holds it should shoot straight up no?

As soon as my money fiat clears, I'm buying half, and setting the other half in a tranche back down to 450 (CAD on virtex)

I'm not giving advice, I'm just saying what I might hypthecically do.

*edit for clarity  Cool

The good ol' bear tactic. Which very likely fails and makes you end up buying even more expensive coins.
Just buy and hold. You'll beat 90% of the traders and people chasing cheap coins all the time.

my position already consists of a large enough portion of my less than considerable total wealth.

I think I'm acting completely appropriately given my personal position.

I do not recommend that anyone else act on or make decisions based on anything I say.
1406  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 04:13:41 AM

thanks for that link, it brought me to this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWRlNO79sLw

edit:

I never quite understood the "adoption gap" chasm until I saw this little beauty



big thanks to whoever dropped that link, sorry I don't remember

finally I understood that this correlation of hype and despair explains the "adoption gap" chasm theory.

They are not one and the same the hype cycle is typically of the run-ups to all-time highs.

The adoption curve represents 100% of Bitcoin's total user base untill Bitcoin reaches maximum saturation.

The adoption chasm is about critical mass if you can reach 13-16% of your target user base, you have crossed the chasm and the network effect will trigger the remaining adoption through to saturation.

In my mind we're still in early adopter or innovator stage, we haven't crossed the chasm yet, once we've hit 13% of total Bitcoin users we've crossed the chasm and we home free.



agreed, this only helped me realize at what stage in adoption we are at currently. and also of course to realize that the "chasm" might actually be real.

we are no where close to 13-16% in my opinion.



Pulling a number literally from nowhere, it FEELS as if we are around 0.5%. Anyone have a more accurate number?

I'm sure accurate numbers are incoming, but 0.5% FEELS "no where close to 13-16% in my opinion."


*edit for anyone that missed the earlier link to one of the best albums of all time, this part some 20 minutes in might better grab your attention.
http://youtu.be/xP8sWxFu0DA?t=19m25s

The problem has been staring us in the face for 30-40 years. The answer came only 5 years ago.
1407  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 04:09:11 AM
They sure have been dumping many coins into 3500 over the past 24 hours. Maybe they doing us a favor certifying that 3500 is very strong support. If it holds it should shoot straight up no?

As soon as my money fiat clears, I'm buying half, and setting the other half in a tranche back down to 450 (CAD on virtex)

I'm not giving advice, I'm just saying what I might hypthecically do.

*edit for clarity  Cool
1408  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 04:05:42 AM

thanks for that link, it brought me to this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWRlNO79sLw

edit:

I never quite understood the "adoption gap" chasm until I saw this little beauty



big thanks to whoever dropped that link, sorry I don't remember

finally I understood that this correlation of hype and despair explains the "adoption gap" chasm theory.

They are not one and the same the hype cycle is typically of the run-ups to all-time highs.

The adoption curve represents 100% of Bitcoin's total user base untill Bitcoin reaches maximum saturation.

The adoption chasm is about critical mass if you can reach 13-16% of your target user base, you have crossed the chasm and the network effect will trigger the remaining adoption through to saturation.

In my mind we're still in early adopter or innovator stage, we haven't crossed the chasm yet, once we've hit 13% of total Bitcoin users we've crossed the chasm and we home free.



agreed, this only helped me realize at what stage in adoption we are at currently. and also of course to realize that the "chasm" might actually be real.

we are no where close to 13-16% in my opinion.
1409  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 04:02:28 AM
HAHAHAHA.

A MA GAWD. Watching Huobi makes me imagine how them chinese boys are sitting behind their PC's.

HO LEE FUK. WE TEECH EM WESTELN PEOPLE SOME POOPIE OF THEY OWN YES.


Racism aside, it's a fair assessment.

all the other markets seem to be following, as usual.

if we could break below 550 I would be on cloud 9 (it's that little cloud on the other side of the moon)
1410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 03:44:09 AM
Whoever is selling right now is getting played. I haven't seen any TA showing this is the right time to sell.

Unless you have so many coins you have to sell 24/7 or you are Satoshi keeping things in check, I don't get what you are trying to accomplish.

whatever keeps up as low as possible for as long as possible is all good in my book

You have been around for 3 years, seems like you would have bought all the "cheap" coins you need by now lol

yes, it is actually quite embarrassing to have been around for so long and to still have so few coins.

I have made, and continue to make, some very bad decisions, and yet I'm still up overall,  Grin

 just not like millionaire styles  Cry
1411  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 03:31:10 AM
Whoever is selling right now is getting played. I haven't seen any TA showing this is the right time to sell.

Unless you have so many coins you have to sell 24/7 or you are Satoshi keeping things in check, I don't get what you are trying to accomplish.

whatever keeps up as low as possible for as long as possible is all good in my book
1412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 02:45:32 AM
Eh, sorry to rain on your parade guys, but in all honesty, the entire "should we talk abot bit or ubit or mBTC" discussion only matter if Bitcoin ever becomes a unit of account. And frankly, I don't see that happening for a long time yet. (I mean it: long time. A human generation, maybe).

And for the other aspects, exchange medium, store of wealth, it doesn't matter one bit (hur hur) what it's called... gold bugs had to wrap their head around the rather impractical 'ounces' for a while, and that never stopped adoption either.

What I'm saying is, discuss away how to call the fractions of a coin, but I tend to think, it won't matter either way.

*emphasis mine

bitcoin was born as a unit of account, it's actually the core function. simply an open ledger of accounting (that cannot be changed, by anyone, as far as we know)

but I'm guessing that you're using the term "unit of account" to mean "global reserve currency" and in that case you're right, 10-15 years at least... I think?

I told him already. He doesn't believe me.

I think he understands bitcoin pretty much as well as I do. We may differ on some finer point, and when we do, I start to worry a little bit...  I guess that's why I posted that.
1413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 02:38:10 AM
Eh, sorry to rain on your parade guys, but in all honesty, the entire "should we talk abot bit or ubit or mBTC" discussion only matter if Bitcoin ever becomes a unit of account. And frankly, I don't see that happening for a long time yet. (I mean it: long time. A human generation, maybe).

And for the other aspects, exchange medium, store of wealth, it doesn't matter one bit (hur hur) what it's called... gold bugs had to wrap their head around the rather impractical 'ounces' for a while, and that never stopped adoption either.

What I'm saying is, discuss away how to call the fractions of a coin, but I tend to think, it won't matter either way.

*emphasis mine

bitcoin was born as a unit of account, it's actually the core function. simply an open ledger of accounting (that cannot be changed, by anyone, as far as we know)

but I'm guessing that you're using the term "unit of account" to mean "global reserve currency" and in that case you're right, 10-15 years at least... I think?
1414  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2014, 01:56:41 AM

thanks for that link, it brought me to this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWRlNO79sLw

edit:

I never quite understood the "adoption gap" chasm until I saw this little beauty



big thanks to whoever dropped that link, sorry I don't remember

finally I understood that this correlation of hype and despair explains the "adoption gap" chasm theory.
1415  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 03:28:49 AM
I really want the bitcoin price to skyrocket. I am saving up for a triple monitor setup and right now i have ~0.23 BTC, and I want the price to be at LEAST 1000$ when I cash out, until then, I won't be cashing out, and I will be left with less money to spend...

0.23BTC @ 1000$ won't even buy you 1 really good monitor. Why would you need 3 monitors to watch the price?
$230 = .23BTC = 1 Korean 27" 2560x1440 IPS monitor... ? (if you are lucky)

So you need it to be more like $4000.

Sounds like he just needs more bitcoin. Tongue

nah, this is where deflationary currency meets deflationary products.


deflationary products:
"you mean to tell me, that I can buy a TV that's twice as good (4K or whatever) next year for the same price as this piece of crap you want to sell me today?

deflationary currency:
"and now you're trying to tell me that the thousand bucks I spent last year on that piece of crap TV is now worth ten thousand?!?!???"


ah whatever, it's a crappy metaphor, it seemed cool when I started typing, I guess that happens when you're drunk and you think all your thoughts are worth posting.
1416  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 03:00:00 AM
I really want the bitcoin price to skyrocket. I am saving up for a triple monitor setup and right now i have ~0.23 BTC, and I want the price to be at LEAST 1000$ when I cash out, until then, I won't be cashing out, and I will be left with less money to spend...

I don't give advice, but I would wait until at least 2000, but that's just me.
1417  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2014, 02:49:57 AM
1. Since the last post BY @JorgeStolfi some six hours and four pages ago,  there may have been 30 posts ABOUT @JorgeStolfi.  I am flattered and moved.  Sorry @fonzie, but as the poet wrote

  Cesse tudo o que a antiga Musa canta
  Que outro valor mais alto se alevanta  Cheesy

2. Thanks again for the offer, but I would rather not have any bitcoins, and I do not intend to help distributing bitcoins to anyone, my students or not.  I am sure you will find charities or other worthy projects that will make much better use of the money.

3. I got to 65k tweets before knowing about bitcoin; mostly on politics, a bit of thechnology, humor, etc.  I was looking forward to commemorate my 65535th tweet, but then Twitter switched to the approximate "65K" count format.  Darn. But I was bored of politics anyway and decided to take a long twitter vacation.  By the way, it was through Twitter (specifically @falkvinge's tweets) that I first learned of bitcoin.  Since December I have been mostly wasting the stolen taxpayer's money here instead, using twitter only once in a while to warn people about bitcoin.

4. Why do people assume that I "still do not understand" bitcoin?  In my view, it is the shrillest bitcoin enthusiasts who do not understand much about it and how the world works.  Like those who still claim that bitcoin will let people evade taxes and buy illegal things, or that bitcoin is a safer investment than plain cash, or that China is irrelevant, or that the volume in the blockchain shows that people are using bitcoin --- or that the right technology, by itself, can save people from corrupt politicians and greedy bankers.

cheers stolfi.

I was always wondering if old dogs could learn new tricks.

Now I realize that they can't, and that the new tricks must be beaten into them.

I hope that your own personal transition from the old system into the new one is not too bumpy.
1418  Economy / Speculation / Re: QUICKCOIN!!?? on: May 28, 2014, 02:20:13 AM
http://www.techhive.com/article/2159380/quickcoin-app-lets-users-send-bitcoin-through-facebook.html

sorry, I know I'm always dragging up old shit, but..


am I the only one that thinks it looks like quickcoin is trying to get bought by facebook?

it would be a nice payday for quickcoin, and it would offer facebook a nearly turn-key solution to offer facebux.

I'd recommend they design it as an off-chain wallet where your facebux are held and transferred from user to user.

with sidechains or treechains or whatever it should be possible to build it in an open, trustless manner. though I suspect facebook will build it as a black-box type of off-chain abomination a'la mtgox.


interesting times.
1419  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 27, 2014, 06:21:36 AM
what the hell are bits worth anyways? 1 000 satoshi or something? can someone give me a conversion confirmation here? my google-fu is not so great when I'm dring.
Satoshi is cent. Bit is dollar. That is 100 satoshi.
so in other words,

buying a couple pizzas with 10,000 bits might seem like a good idea today......
1420  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 27, 2014, 05:49:07 AM

The world must be one big adventure for you every day you wake up.

Yup! pretty much!

I love it. It's great!
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