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1321  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 05:03:12 AM
Android was OS

RND function weakened.

but a good crypto collects randomness from many places so it only effected code that relied too much on rnd function.

I believe Steve Gibson is working on a pretty good approximation of true randomness with his SQRL project.

but I think the underlying point is that, if a flaw is found, the system will be rolled back or rebuilt from the ashes, better and stronger than before.

I'm not certain about the future of bitcoin in this iteration, but the idea of Bitcoin "is too big to fail"


 Smiley Wink Cheesy Grin

hehe, couldn't resist  Cool
1322  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 04:09:38 AM
Im commenting on that something seems off at Bitstamp...

3d Bitstamp ->2%, Bfx -<1%, Huobi -<0.5%

Every time the other exchanges rally, there is nothing going on at Bitstamp.. which results in this.

It is new that Bitstamp is below Huobi and about the same as btc-e. If it continues to stay significantly below other exchanges, then I will start to worry, but this is probably just somebody dumping a large stash on Bitstamp.

I am wondering about the same - it happened couple of time in the last days. Perhaps Chinese coins being dumped?

I think maybe some people on stamp were a little perturbed by being virtually "frisked" and said "screw you guys, I'm going home"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTc3zcnIZOw

still, going to take down the whole market a bit, we'll see if it can break the channel.

*edit - stupid virtex still over 700  Angry *
1323  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 03:22:44 AM


how does the saying go?

"when the wise man points at the moon, the simple man stares at the finger."

Huh
1324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 03:18:23 AM
1W MACD bout to cross

lower limit of the channel being challenged!



I have buy orders that should be getting filled as we speak! (*edit - nm, virtex still over 700 and just recently had a spike to 745, damn Canadians just can't keep it in their pants. *)
1325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 02:50:07 AM
(You are not referring to the P != NP conjecture I suppose?  It is just as uncertain, but it has absolutely no relevance to those two assumptions in the bitcoin protocol.)
I am. And it has. At least to 'what the protocol can handle in principle being thrown at it', not 'what the protocol is and does right now'. As long as there are problems that are hard to solve but easy to check, the protocol can be adapted to the threat that a particular problem turned out to be easy to solve after all.

First, let me say that I was just reacting to that "pure incorruptible mathematics" bullshit by the reporter.  I am not arguing that the lack of mathematical proof iis a flaw of bitcoin.  My skepticism does not come from that "flaw" (or from any other strictly technical issue), but from political/social/practical problems, for which my probabilities are obviously different from those of most people in this thread.

As for the P != NP conjecture, I do not need to tell you that it makes sense only if the problem instance size n is allowed to go to infinity, since the difference between polynomial and superpolynomial appears only in the limit, when n is "just about to get there".  The two classes are indistinguishable if one assums that n is bounded, say n < 10^500.  But the bitcoin mining problem and the signature forging problem have a fixed n, threfore only a finite number of instances; in that case, complexity theory says that both problems are trivial and can be solved in constant time (e.g. by a simple table lookup).  Obviously this theoretical conclusion is irrelevant to the practical question. 

The sad fact is that theoretical computer science does not have any tools yet that can provide useful lower bounds for problems of fixed size.   Even assuming P != NP, there is no way to prove that the current protocol, with specific key and hash sizes, is safe.  It may even be the case that forging a bitcoin transaction signature is easier than checking it, or that finding the right nonce for a block is easier than computing SHA256 twice -- independently of whether P = NP or not.  We simply do not know.

If someday one were to find fast solutions for  those puzzles, then complexity theory indeed says that there must exist safe replacements for them -- assuming P != NP, of course.  But the theory cannot identify those replacements, not even tell how many bits one needs to use in keys and hashes to ensure that inverting those functions is hard enough.  Conversely, even if P = NP, the current protocol may be safe, or there may exist safe alternatives for those two puzzles.  (As you surely know, "polynomial" does not mean "computable in practice", and "superpolynomial" does not mean "impossible to compute in practice".)

The difficulty of those two puzzles, for the currently chosen key and hash sizes, has been verified only experimentally, by tests that have ruled out some weaknesses that people have thought of checking.   (For a trivial example, someone surely must have checked that the leading bits of the block hash are not linear functions of the nonce bits, not even approximately.)   However, a thorough check would require testing all possible algorithms (or boolean circuits) up to some large size, for all possible inputs -- which is totally outside the realm of practicality.

With no known shortcuts, exhaustive enumeration is pretty much the best way we now have to solve those puzzles.  That is all one can say about the issue.

much better

some guy once said "if you wanna be a good writer, write what you know."

*I'm paraphrasing of course*
1326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 02:38:15 AM

did you try and it failed?

no Fundz - 0.00150771 already gone

is'nt that like 15 thousand bits on facebook?
1327  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 02:22:37 AM
wow, adam's offering free beers and you could drop a pin in here

(guessing everyone is now trying to figure out how to import private keys Smiley )

so I'll take this time to post a chart



those are *almost* completely arbitrary lines I drew a week ago, I think we could go sideways longer than most,

I'm also not certain that this will break to the upside, but that's probably just me hoping for another chance at sub-500 coins...


*(edit cuz I missed rudy's post)*
damn, 1 second late Smiley

pre-paid drinks are super cool idea now powered by bitcoin

did you try and it failed?
1328  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 02:12:33 AM


sweet! it worked!! thanks!!!

(not really, I didn't claim it  Tongue )

but it just got me thinking that anyone who says "thanks" would be linking their avatar account with their public address. so just make a new address before you spend I guess is all I'm saying...

I also advocate that random people just say thanks to obscure the bit-trail. Smiley
1329  Economy / Speculation / Re: At THE RALLY when will you sell? on: June 11, 2014, 01:40:14 AM
If you want to make real money you gotta hold alot more than till nearest rally incoming Wink
Right. But many of us want to increase their BTC stash by selling high and buying low.

But some of us are afraid of getting out & never getting the chance to get back in Sad

just like when you're first getting into bitcoin, never risk more fiat than you are willing to lose:

so too with selling, never risk more bitcoin than you are willing to lose. Wink
1330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 11, 2014, 01:16:22 AM
Look out for free beers on the Wall Observer Thread



Cheers! I used this as my opportunity to learn how to sweep a private key. Not as difficult as I thought it might be.

I will be sending out free beers like this at random times (11am - 11pm EST)

read this thread with a device ready to scan and spend a private key fast and you'll undoubtedly get really dunk of all those bits!

PM me if you would like to contribute the free beer fund, all funds collected will be past out as free beers.


1. log in to your blockchain.info account  (there is a  page to import private keys )
2. in a new tab goto: http://zxing.org/w/decode.jspx
3. when a beer shows up, copy the image url and decode
4. copy the decoded private key and paste it in blockchain.info. Click "sweep key"
5. order a cold beer Wink

so it's pretty much just quickest on the draw?

it's brilliant actually, it will draw many eyes to this thread, and many refreshes to bitcointalk.org *edit - also great incentive for noobs to learn how to bitcoin*

if you could fork the wall observer to some site that could monetize this and slide the proceeds into the beer fund that would be epic.

either way, you're a legend.

cheers bud.
1331  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 10, 2014, 01:32:17 PM
(By the way, until the 1980s many people were quite certain that the linear programming problem could not be solved in polynomial time, because many bright people etc. etc..  Some even had started to build a theory of "LP-complete problems".  Then a Russian mathematician found a polynomial algorithm, by thinking out of the box.)

Still to this day, apparently some people are quite certain that a solution to the problems of digital money could not be solved.

Others prefer to think out of the box and ignore the naysayers and are currently building such a system as a kind of "proof of concept"


Sorry, I really didn't want to get into this, and I gotta go so I can't even monitor this thread today, but I just couldn't resist.  Tongue
1332  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3 years ago...let's reminisce on: June 10, 2014, 03:52:41 AM
2011 really set off a strange series of events for me.

If my brother hadn't been living in Japan at the time of the Fukushima thing, I might still have been asleep to the world. Instead, I now had a vested interest in the situation, so I started to try to find some real news about what was going on.

That started a trip down the rabbit hole that inevitably led to bitcoin. I think by June of 2011 I was telling everyone I knew about how cool bitcoin was and how it would kill the banks and topple governments. I couldn't figure out why everyone just laughed or looked at me funny.  Undecided

and then I found this place  Grin

1333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: June 10, 2014, 01:06:38 AM


Bitcoin is disappointing us negatively this week.
The poll still seems rather bullish!

That's the problem, everybody is already loaded and have no spare FIAT to buy more.

Actually I do have some spare, but I have spread them out from 450 - 550.

Always helps to keep a bit of fiat for the sharp drops.

I always try to do the same thing, it's only when the price drops precipitously that I run out of fiat.

If the price takes off and goes up and up, I leave the fiat there, which allows me to sell bitcoin to friends without taking any volatility risk. (though none of my friends or family have asked for any yet)   Huh  Cry

I used to wonder why they all still refuse to jump on the bandwagon even after watching the price rise year after year. Most say it's too risky, and yet they have their entire life savings sunk into mutual funds and RRSP's
- and then all at once, RUEHL's comment below made it clear to me.

I agree.  I had the opportunity to buy BTC at $11 back in 2011 BUT I wasn't ready and didn't know the fundamentals why it's so great.  I probably would've sold at the $18 or $30 peaks.

Years later I'm ready, I understand the fractional reserve system and how the central banks have their dirty hands in all recent major historical events.  Now I understand it's a long term hold and with any hope, there will be no need to convert to FIAT.

I seems to be quite useless to try to explain why bitcoin is a good thing to anyone who does not understand the current fiat system. And equally useless to try to explain the problems of the current system to those who depend on it for their livelihood.
1334  Economy / Speculation / Re: No Need to Panic on: June 09, 2014, 01:13:22 PM
we are still comfortably within the channel.

continue to sell the spikes and buy the dips.

until we break this somewhat random formation of lines I chose, that's what I'm doing.

Your bottom line is wrong.  Connect the 3 bottom spikes.  That's a much stronger line of support, and it's also much more bullish.
here is the chart with the line you suggest.



only time will tell...
*edited for brevity*

The original channel is still holding strong. Until that upper or lower resistance gets taken out, I think the fireworks will be put on hold.

Looks like it might be a cruel, cruel summer  Cool
1335  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 09, 2014, 04:10:39 AM
Have you noticed the drop in hashrate lately.  


yeah, sorry about that, I had to go out of town for work, just logged in to see that one of my miners is off-line  Angry

just keep the price steady for me for a few days and when I get back I will rectify the hashrate problem... promise Wink


Hashrate always sometimes drops after every difficulty increase. Nothing unusual

ftfy *edit - unless by hashrate you mean the rate at which blocks are found, in which case, my apologies*

and, in other news, the hashrate is still growing, but at least the rate of growth of the growth has been negative for some time,


still waiting on Neptune release though, that should pump it up once again.
1336  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 09, 2014, 03:58:38 AM
Have you noticed the drop in hashrate lately. 


yeah, sorry about that, I had to go out of town for work, just logged in to see that one of my miners is off-line  Angry

just keep the price steady for me for a few days and when I get back I will rectify the hashrate problem... promise Wink
1337  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2014, 05:51:16 PM
IMO we are at a point where we have a lot of high net worth, major corps, and invesent funds investing in Bitcoin. The days of huge swings, massive outbreaks, and downward spirals are over. I think we will see peaks and valleys in the range of 2-3% possibly at a faster pace than traditional stocks rise and fall but like I said to many major players now have too much to lose not to control the price. Not only that but if more retailers are to enter the "accepting" bitcoin game then the price has to show signs of long term stability and I think that's what we are seeing here. Long term investment growth, price stability for retailers to enter bitcoin, wider acceptance by the general public who don't have the knowledge or skills to enter a highly volatile market.

That's just my guess, he'll we could be at $1,000 on Monday. Who the hell knows.

totally, this market is sadly starting to act more mature.

 Cry

at least we'll always have altcoins  Grin
1338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 07, 2014, 03:35:59 AM
You need to understand that whatever lines of support/resistance is used by the most money becomes the most valid.  Most financial markets are keen on drawing lines connecting 3 or more highs or lows.  Anything less than 3 is an arbitrary line.  If 3 line up, it's much more rare.


ok, I'm not a complete neophyte.

I'm not sure why but I chose the point where I thought resistance had become support as a close enough indicator for my third point.



this may or may not have been foolish, we will have to wait to find out.

your point is of course, totally valid. unless the price breaks down below your line, then I agree it is the stronger line.

1339  Economy / Speculation / Re: no need to panic on: June 07, 2014, 03:28:34 AM
Your bottom line is wrong.  Connect the 3 bottom spikes.  That's a much stronger line of support, and it's also much more bullish.

I disagree. The bottom line is based on high volume bearish candles for good reason.

The recent low candle he wasn't including before has more volume than one of the lows he was using.


These touchpoints are chosen pretty much randomly, just by feel.

please do not read into them more than that/
1340  Economy / Speculation / Re: no need to panic on: June 07, 2014, 03:19:33 AM
The fight is on with low-medium volume!!!  Cheesy

Ha! Just wait until Wally the Wall Guy buys his own wall(s) out! Then we shall see some proper volume. Especially when all the noobs see a PANIC BREAKOUT!!!



we are still comfortably within the channel.

continue to sell the spikes and buy the dips.

until we break this somewhat random formation of lines I chose, that's what I'm doing.

Your bottom line is wrong.  Connect the 3 bottom spikes.  That's a much stronger line of support, and it's also much more bullish.

I prefer to ignore that spike through the bottom. I'm not good at TA, so I trust my feelings a little more than others might. I think I heard someone refer to that once as "trading naked"

anyways, here is the chart with the line you suggest.



only time will tell...
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