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1581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Huobi bank account shut down today 4/17/14 on: April 18, 2014, 12:31:47 AM
Could explain why the price is dropping!

The Chinese Bitcoin Cowboys have pumped with their fake volume, they sold their sub $400 BTC on the way up past $500 on USD exchanges, leaving the market to its steadily declining organic demand. Market will gradually decline culminating in another Chinese fake volume dump, pump, n then dump again.

This whole market is rigged horribly. I may never be 'proven' right with evidence as such. But the market will follow a scheme that matches such a corrupt scenario. Incidentaly, this means that Joe Blow is even more likely to lose out than he is in a normal bear market cos the odds are even more stacked against him than he thinks.

I guarantee that all the Bulls who have been indulging in euphoric triumph right at the top of the market, will find themselves seriously underwater compared to their current Bitcoin valuation in USD within a couple of weeks. Bears also will get slaughtered as the majority of short trades witness the market go against them just as soon as the short swaps have stacked up high enough to make em worth squeezing. This is what has been happening, this is what will continue to happen. The Bitcoin Bandits will become very rich from this game, but with each cycle of market exploitation, more and more market participants become increasingly disillusioned with Bitcoin and withdraw their capital from the market, which ultimately can only mean one thing.

The parasite tends to drain from its host until it can't drain no more, and then it moves on.

I think the bulls are not worried about what happens within a "couple of weeks" but rather what might happen within a couple of years.

I think that the people trying to promote bitcoin right now are missing the point for the most part.

I think bitcoin needs at least 2 more years on the "down low" (price as well as exposure) to allow for the security and ease-of-use problems to be solved before it goes main-stream.

I would consider myself a bull and I'm not selling until we see what happens after the next block halving... Worked out pretty well for me last time Wink
1582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2014, 11:59:36 PM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.


yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

1583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2014, 11:47:07 PM
My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

The first rule of Bitcoin is we don't invest more than we can afford to lose!
Call me lucky, I got a few coins just above 400 on the cavertex dip last week and my second deposit cleared the following Monday.  
I haven't sold yet, and my seconds deposit will be used to support the $350 if we trend down, and buy in at 660 if we are trending up after 30 days.

If you want my advice and I'd calculate the cost of the having money on the exchange for the next 4 months then write it off. Then I'd play it safe on trading swings where you are comfortable.

A bubble could form within a month or two, or if trade volume subsides we maybe as long as 6-12 months.  I've invested a little of that cheep coin in alt, and think we may have growth there before we see it a boom in Bitcoin.  (the "smart" money is sounding too confident in my view to see an early boom, I think it is the big of exchange hoarders who are the ones who have to release some liquidity before we drink Campaign)

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  Wink
1584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2014, 11:04:29 PM
My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some more money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

1585  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 17, 2014, 02:11:12 AM


yes bear trap, could be a good one.

At this time it could be anything, to be honest atm it feels like this market is led by some emotionally unstable teenagers.

crash back to 460 is what I would like the most. which means, least likely to happen  Sad
1586  Other / Meta / Re: My account "ZIOMIK" hacked !!!!! on: April 17, 2014, 01:52:56 AM
This is now resolved, in case anyone was wondering. Theymos just has a bunch on his plate...

I hate to spam but I'm having a somewhat similar problem over here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=572442.0


should I just PM Theymos?
Check your spam folder, your password reset may have gone there.

Unfortunately, no. nothing there, I checked the rules list to make sure it wasn't explicitly blocked, 0 rules.

-edit- thanks, just got the email. testing now.

yup, all good.

So was I hacked or what?
1587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 13, 2014, 07:13:12 AM
some perspective.

monthly inflation of bitcoin = 25 coins per block * 6 blocks per hour * 24 hours per day * 30 days per month = 108,000 coins per month.

monthly inflation of USD from fed QE alone = 50,000,000,000 USD per month.


and just for fun: 50,000,000,000 USD per month / 108,000 coins per month = 462,962.96 USD per coin.

 Shocked

 Cool
1588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2014, 05:56:40 AM
yeah....Ive always treated the minor bottoms in this area with much caution from a bearish point of view, since it is historically reversal territory. This is probably the first one to blow a bunch of bears out of the water, which makes it exciting. It only takes an announcement from PBOC to make new lows, so yeah maybe it needs time before we can call it a bottom on a larger scale.

What excites me most, is that the level to break the monthly wedge is only 510 now. 'only', as in only $60 away, but the resistance of the wedge could be potentially be a lot. the test may come soon - 15th (!)

The problem with our little wedge is that is linear, so it is bound to break within a finite time when it reaches zero, which occurs in August. Does that mean we are guaranteed a reversal in July? You can't say we're guaranteed a reversal. The downtrend could very well go on well beyond that, hypothetically. You can't say that just because geometrically speaking, a sloped line will meet zero, that a reversal is guaranteed.

So maybe, when you're dealing with large price ranges and long amounts of time, it is more appropriate to use a logarithmic line. This way, the line could be in effect infinitely. There could potentially be a false breakout of the linear line only to meet resistance at the logarithmic line.



Actually, I think the ichimoku cloud on TradingView is a much better visualiazation of resistance than a rigid line.




that purple zone pattern looks about right to me. needs a dinosaur to be really convincing though.
1589  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2014, 05:17:31 AM

Thanks prof.
1590  Economy / Speculation / Re: The psychology of a HODLer on: April 12, 2014, 05:12:20 AM
You don't actually "lose money" until you sell.  Just like stocks. The real hodlers know this. How do you think the noobs that sold at the $350 bottom this week feel?  Not as good as the true hodlers, I'll tell you that much!

Real hodlers are prepared for the fact that bitcoin could be worth zero tomorrow.
1591  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2014, 04:48:25 AM
I'm not confident in this being the final bottom for the same reason as last time. The stoch RSI is wrong, again. The reversal is being triggered by some piece of information and a panic at the wrong point in the trend with no evidence of a true capitulation having occured. In a real reversal, everyone is bearish and someone is there sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds, and the price slowly scoops it way upwards with the MACD crossing as the stoch RSI is still low. It usually features a sort of double bottom a couple days apart with both days having high volume.

my emphasis

does anyone have that link to the second market observer? I thought I had it bookmarked, but I'm either mistaken, or just can't find it, or more likely just plain drunk.

:edit: here it is, thanks stolfi.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

That was a lot of coins they bought yesterday, could they be the one who is "sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds" ?
1592  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2014, 04:11:36 AM
I think this is the plan:



I'm cheering for team red! Who's with me?

:seriously, feels like a much firmer bottom in the 300's, and who can resist a firm bottom?

::even more seriously, can you share a zoom-out so we can see the whole trendline? thanks.
1593  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 12, 2014, 04:08:08 AM
What would this pattern be called, if it broke out: Head, shoulders, and hips?



how about the panty line indicator

LOL  Cool

 Shocked

it actually looks just like a nested head and shoulders. how often would you encounter such a pattern in "normal" trading? like stock market stuff?

edit - yeah, just like inception, we're gonna see patterns inside of patterns inside of patterns...

scary part is, that if you look closely enough, it becomes true.
1594  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2014, 01:58:27 AM
I think $339.8 was the bottom. Whats ya'lls thoughts?

not even close, this gonna get fugly me thinks

I hope you're right. I hope this drags out for months.
1595  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2014, 01:37:34 AM
if we go below 300, I declare that we are breaking the previous ATH...

Now that would be interesting. It would mark another first for me, would stick in my memory like the first spike I saw (up to 32) or the first crash I saw days after, or that time the blockchain forked, or...
1596  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2014, 01:22:39 AM
I love those guys who told me to fuck off. What am I doing now? fucking off. I'm not buying. You pissed off one of the guys who could save you. (not really. I'd have to care)

Should I start buying yet?

Nah. I can wait.

Will I miss the bottom? Prolly. I have so much cash I don't have to care. Some trader smarter than me will catch it and "save" Bitcoin without even meaning to. The decentral bankers of Bitcoin: The bad ones pay the good ones and the good ones reduce volatility. Clearly we need more good ones and that's what I'm learning to be.





You could save me? Haha, well, fuck off again Mr. wanna be big dick with 20-30k $, I have more fiat waiting than you do  Grin

What a fucking deluded moron, sold at 450$ and he thinks he is some big motherfucker trader..

this is the kind of vitriol I've been waiting for. definite buy signal for me.
1597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2014, 12:49:21 AM
Mining is no big deal issue. Half of all miners loose money. The difficulty will simply drop.  It's happened before.

No! Why should the hashrate drop? Because they want to lose even more money?

Successful miners mine at a loss 90% of the time. That last 10% of the time, they make 20X% profits.  That's the way it works. It's the long game. The smart ones lock in operating expenses for years or donate to the Cause knowingly. The WANT difficulty to rise to the point that only they can continue to mine at all, much less mine profitably. Then they have cornered the market. It's not different incentive-wise to me wanting to die with the most coins.

Personally, when I wear my miner hat, I do not consider the fiat price of bitcoin at all. I consider mining as my second job, and I concern myself only with acquiring more coins. Those coins I expect to be my retirement fund.

(I must admit that I did not always feel this way, and sold more coins at sub ten dollar prices than I care to think about. My philosophy at that time was that I had to pay off my investment, $2600 for 4 7970's - sold at least 3 or 4 hundred coins just to pay those off. Since ASICs all my hardware purchases have been denominated in bitcoin. When I make a decision whether to buy new equipment or not, it is based solely on the amount of bitcoin the unit will cost, and the amount of bitcoin I expect it to mine, within a reasonable amount of time.)

Only when I wear my speculation dunce-cap do I worry about price.
1598  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 11, 2014, 12:11:03 AM
ah this really sucks

Hey Adam, you know what really sucks?

CaVirtex says because of some stupid law that I need to re-verify my bank account, and the way they verify is to send money to my account and then I have to tell them how much they sent...

Of course, I'm not going to know how much they sent until Huh who knows when? -- and then it will still take 2-3 business days for my deposit to clear, meaning I won't have funds in my account until, I dunno, next tuesday? wednesday?

I might just end up going to bitcoinbrains and eating that 6.5%...

Or maybe I just take the money I was going to spend on bitcoin and buy a flight and a hotel and go to the expo in Toronto this weekend Smiley

I was lucky i did this last week, also have an EFT on its way hope it comes through tomorrow. have you tried VoS

I have not tried them yet, but I expect I would have to verify with them as well, I'm not sure how long these prices will last. Maybe it will keep dropping and not being able to fund my account will actually turn in my favour.

One thing is for certain, once you experience bitcoin, the legacy banking system is downright laughable. It's seriously like comparing physical mail to email.

(*45 new replies?!?!?!*) holy crap, I need to type faster, lol.
1599  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2014, 11:42:33 PM
ah this really sucks

Hey Adam, you know what really sucks?

CaVirtex says because of some stupid law that I need to re-verify my bank account, and the way they verify is to send money to my account and then I have to tell them how much they sent...

Of course, I'm not going to know how much they sent until Huh who knows when? -- and then it will still take 2-3 business days for my deposit to clear, meaning I won't have funds in my account until, I dunno, next tuesday? wednesday?

I might just end up going to bitcoinbrains and eating that 6.5%...

Or maybe I just take the money I was going to spend on bitcoin and buy a flight and a hotel and go to the expo in Toronto this weekend Smiley
1600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 10, 2014, 04:47:04 AM
Was thinking a few days ago bidding at lower 400's would be a safe, smart play even for bears. i am quickly changing my mind.

I told a guy I know that was interested in bitcoin a week ago that I thought breaking through 400 CAD was unlikely.

I told him again today that I no longer held that view.

I am feeling now that we might go below 400, until the point of maximum pain.

on this journey, simply remember...

“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
― Frank Herbert, Dune
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