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1661  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Satoshi isn't dead, just HODLING on: March 07, 2014, 04:22:14 AM
Market is not moving because investors don't even know what to make of this..... <snip>
Market is not moving because investors know that 'this' is irrelevant.
1662  Economy / Speculation / Re: REAL SATOSHI SPEAKS OUT ON P2P FOUNDATION WEBSITE on: March 07, 2014, 04:00:05 AM
Two options here - My guess, Satoshi decided to go with Option A.

A) Satoshi is responding to the madness so that there is no more headaches for Dorian
B) Someone hacked into it or found an exploit to write that.

Ning was never a reliable platform even in the early days of the Ning Social network.

Satoshi needs to speak up in the forums of BitcoinTalk!

pfff, like bitcointalk is the pillar of security.
1663  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2014, 06:28:13 AM
major flashback to the +/- 5 dollar days. <- edit for clarity: referring to the 4 or 5 months where we were stuck at 5 bucks, give or take.

I think about this when people start getting bored after slowness for 2 days in a row. These people would never have survived that period.

It was too painful. I put my coins in cold storage.

hah! well done!

it's painful for me for different reasons; as a miner at that time I still thought I was making 'free money' and I spent more bitcoin then I like to admit during those dark days Sad
1664  Economy / Speculation / Re: What if war comes? More and more WWIII signals on: March 06, 2014, 05:27:20 AM
“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

-Albert Einstein

heh, used that as inspiration for a song I wrote back in ? whenever I learned that Pakistan had nuclear capability.

Even though I wrote it when I was just a kid, and it took me many, many years to clue in to the real picture...

anyways, in the spirit of this thread, I thought I'd share it anyways, as kind of a time-capsule of sorts.


War Technology

We've been down this road before, I seen it twice, this global war.
Now you're tryin' to get away.

This time 'round the rules have changed, they got nuclear bombs not orange rain,
and this time no one will escape.


Bombs land on the horizon,
like staring straight at the sun,
end of everyone.
Go!


Man-made armageddon, looks like we don't need god no more.
Not much left worth praying for.

Desolation, devastation, greets us on the other side.
Pick up some rocks let's do it again!


Bombs land on the horizon,
like staring straight at the sun,
end of everyone.
Go!


Too much fucking war technology, too many assholes with the bomb;

way past time we brought this on our selves.




If anyone wants the MP3, just PM me, trust me, it's awful/
1665  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2014, 02:15:50 AM
I'm starting to feel bullish, we're going down?  Shocked

Yeah, as I was 1 hr away, it looks like we went down a whole dollar.

whoa.

major flashback to the +/- 5 dollar days. <- edit for clarity: referring to the 4 or 5 months where we were stuck at 5 bucks, give or take.
1666  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2014, 01:46:47 AM
It's a protocol on the top of Bitcoin, I think.

has to be, right? bitcoin is the only trusted blockchain you could do any kind of serious business on, and this Reggie guy looks serious. Grin
1667  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2014, 01:41:34 AM
I'm starting to feel bullish, we're going down?  Shocked

I'm starting to get a head-spinning amount of bullishness.

Does anyone know the story behind this "ultra-coin" thing? -> http://ultra-coin.com/

It's obviously not this -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=413978.0

so I'm guessing it's not a "coin" at all. I'm assuming that it's a wallet that writes code to allow for more exotic bitcoin transactions, and uses p2p network to allow users to connect to set up trades.

It looks exactly like the decentralized, trustless exchange I've been dreaming about.

Why have I not heard of this before and why is no-one else excited?

1668  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2014, 01:14:43 AM
Probability of break out in the next 4 hours: 55.6%


Slumber method?  Grin

something far more arcuate...

now at 59.2%

SLumber Ultra Pro Plus  Cheesy
nope, it's gotta be the coin cheapness indicator. It's the only indicator that I pay any attention to, lol!
1669  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2014, 01:04:40 AM
http://ultra-coin.com/

dropping at zerohedge and elsewhere. That infrastructure we were talking about?

I'm gonna beta test the shit out of this thing.

ohhhhh man!

goto 7:25 "super malleable"

I guess malleability is not bug after all Wink
1670  Economy / Speculation / Re: TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead? on: March 05, 2014, 03:19:24 AM

I appreciate that you use the term HOLDER instead of HODLER, which I assume to mean you are bullish in the short/medium/long term and willing to take some amount of additional risk, but not religiously married to your position.

If this is the case, you must have an exit plan on both the top side and the bottom.

Would you care to share?

How much difference a day makes. I was holding panic bought $618 coins, but woke up today and decided that Bitcoin was going to retrace.....and dumped my coins.

So much for HOLDING.

But aside from that, yep, I am generally bullish. I have staggered buy-ins between $580 - $630. If these orders drop, then depending on how things shape up, I may just consider holding onto those through thick n thin, perhaps only dropping them at clear parabolic blow-offs as and when they come along. It seems that I am good at gauging trends, but tend to cut my own throat when it comes to trading. i.e. a big pile of coin bought at $480 BTC that I sold at $550 (2 minutes before 6K of buying pushed Bitcoin to $570), followed by a mixed bag of good n shit trades (but mostly shit). Had I just held, then I would have a great big cheesey grin on my face just now and have endured none of the headaches and 5 times the profits....of course, all very well saying that with hindsight.

In short, I have no plans or strategies but unlike the whole of Dec, Jan, and Feb, I just no longer feel any great fear towards Bitcoin. At this point in time, I feel from here out Bitcoin is generally a good bet, give or take the odd $100 negative/positive swing or two. I don't buy any of the persisting scare stories of macro down trends still being in place and lower lows being just around the corner for Bitcoin. For me, the bottom has happened (for now) and the reversal is in the process of defining itself.

Excellent news. Thank you.

about that part I bolded.

I had the same feeling when we hit 450 in december. I thought that was the bottom and we'd never see it again. but we did.

I would not be surprised to see it again for a third time (well, technically a fourth time as it's kinda the same range as the pull-back on the run-up in november as well.)

*note, I'm using the 12hr virtex CAD chart on wisdom. draw a line on stamp at 400 and you see pretty much the same thing.
1671  Economy / Speculation / Re: TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead? on: March 05, 2014, 01:37:59 AM
Im not taking anything away from them, I know I would not have been able to hold $10 coins past $100 - no freakin way. I tip my hat to them, but there just ain't any answers to help us. If you truly believe $5k this year then buy the shit out of it. If you don't, flipping a fucking coin at any point is just as good as reading posts.
Fwiw, I don't trust this bust out. I'm not buying anytime soon, if it's $800 tomorrow so be it.

This can only be Ukraine situation.

Ukraine itself and the fear affecting the Russian economy.

The Ukraine withdrawal limit was announced only on Friday 28th, in which case the buying pressure today, was merely the fastest money to get out the country, or capital that was already on Bitstamp with much more in the wire to follow it.

I have just thrown all TA principles and caution out the window and have piled in on Bitstamp at $680...yep, it is down already. It might be down further by tomorrow, but that is the risk that I am taking.

I have become a HOLDER.

I appreciate that you use the term HOLDER instead of HODLER, which I assume to mean you are bullish in the short/medium/long term and willing to take some amount of additional risk, but not religiously married to your position.

If this is the case, you must have an exit plan on both the top side and the bottom.

Would you care to share?
1672  Economy / Speculation / Re: pump & dump sponsored by blockchain.info ? on: March 04, 2014, 06:12:00 PM
I don't get this rtbtc thing, can someone explain why I should give them 240 USD per year?

I think I get the principle of the thing, pretty charts, ease of use... but as I understand it you would have to tie in all your active accounts at the various exchanges, doesn't this simply multiply the risk of someone gaining access to your trading accounts?

Does this platform only apply to "serious" traders? easier for bots to do their arbitrages? or what?
1673  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 06:05:49 AM

orymh just posted a new song:
Mt Gox Erupts

Definitely worth a listen/lyrics read (posted at thread).

(Trading-wise, I think we bottom at 656 and head upwards.)

At first I thought it was all just mumble-mumble-mubmel--

Very glad he posted the lyrics, it's actually a pretty cool song.
1674  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 05:49:14 AM
shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this Huh

up.   but i think it should get to the neighborhood of 650 before that happens.  they will overextend.  this is not smart money.  this is gambling addiction at work.  before the capitulation, big money was in short, and could endure a little squeeze here and there, but big money won't be short for long in this environment.  i mean think about it, no matter how overbought you consider the market after a quick run up from 535 to 710, if you KNOW for a FACT that there are multiple million-dollar buyers out there, and you've seen all the classic patterns flashing buy buy buy, how far are you willing to push it down?  if you're really confident that the book is weak, you will hit it, just because you're an addict, and there is opportunity for a quick buck, but at the first sign of strength, you're going to cover quick.


thanks for explanation.

I am a degenerate gambler type, with a very small risk tolerance. so I like to take money off the table when I can.

If it's not gonna drop below 650, then it's not really worth it for me to sell immediately. On virtex, you need to make at least 3% on each trade, minimum.

virtex I could probably still get 720 CAD, but if stamp only drops to 650 then virtex will probably stay around 700, not enough delta for me.

I need an imminent plunge if I'm going to sell coins.

Maybe I will just wait.

EDIT:


Traders are borrowing coins on margin from Bitfinex and selling them into the market.   These traders hope to buy them back cheaper in the future, return the borrowed coins, and pocket the difference.  "Pushing down hard" means traders are borrowing additional coins and selling them into the market, thereby helping to push down the price.   

There are presently 8,116 BTC on loan to short traders at Bitfinex.  These traders are paying on average 27% per year in BTC to borrow them, and at some point in time they will buy them back because they aren't theirs to keep.  If the price goes up instead of down, some may chose to buy back to minimize their loss, thereby adding fuel to the rally.  At this point, other short traders may be running out of margin (they now have insufficient collateral to cover their mark-to-market losses on their short position) and Bitfinex will force them to cover, squeezing people out of their positions. 


ok, I get it somewhat, but I thought that these kind of leverage instruments were supposed to tamp down the volatility, but they seem to exacerbate it?
1675  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 05:17:34 AM
shorts on bfx are pushing down hard now.  that means there's gonna be a squeeze.

could you dumb that down a bit for those of us who are unfamiliar with leverage and options?

seriously, bitcoin is the first time I have ever traded anything.

if 'shorts' are pushing down, does the 'squeeze' mean price spikes down? or up?

I really don't get this Huh
1676  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2014, 05:02:06 AM
WooHooo!!!

fun times!

I took all bitcoins out of the exchange after I got cleaned out of fiat at 450 Sad waht with all the rumours about gox, and all that

just wired a few coins back, think I want to open a position here.

thinking of selling about 1/3 as soon as they get there... and then see if we're gonna re-trace.

whaddya think? (keep in mind, these are $450 coins... I'm not against taking profits.)
1677  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 03:20:10 PM
Doesn't that go against the whole guilty until proven innocent thing?

People often joke that "America has the worst form of government on the planet except for all the others." It ain't perfect.

There's a "stop and frisk" law in New York now. Basically if you look suspicious they can just stop you and search your person. That seems incredibly un-American to me (an American) yet it exists, seemingly in direct contradiction to "innocent until proven guilty" and the search laws we already have on the books.

False, "looking suspicious" isn't enough legally:

http://law.onecle.com/new-york/criminal-procedure/CPL0140.50_140.50.html

a police officer may stop a person in a public place located within the geographical area of such officer's  employment when  he reasonably  suspects  that  such  person  is  committing,  has committed or is about to commit either (a) a felony or (b) a misdemeanor defined in the penal law, and may demand of him his name, address and an explanation of his conduct.

yeah, all that legal language basically means "looking suspicious"

police
1678  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dark Days ahead for HODLers on: March 01, 2014, 02:47:33 PM
I just realized that MtGOX has opened the doors for a completely new business models named "certification" of "insurance". This can be considered a good thing since we learn from the bad moments.

Certification
Isn't it time for a company with indepth knowledge of how to run a company that stores ginormous amounts of bitcoins to pop up.
This company can offer certification to companies willing to confirm to strict policies and procedures in handling bitcoins.
Companies like Bitstamp, Btc-e, Blockchain could then allow themselves to be certified so they can present the certification on the site.
This way we can trust that our bitcoins are safe if we use their services.

Insurance
Insurance amounts to nearly the same thing. A company willing to bail either "certified"companies handling Bitcoins.
Or personal insurance where you can get bailed out if a Bitstamp or BTC-e goes down like MtGOX did.
For X mBTC per month they insure you for Y BTC if a bankruptcy claim comes through and you can prove your BTC got stuck there.

Bitcoin banks
Companies storing and guaranteeing safe storage of wallets. You send password secured offline wallets through an SSL connection to that company.
Company stores it in some sort of vault and makes sure nobody can steal your coins.
Also providing retreival services where you request your wallet back and the wallets get streamed back once lifted from cold storage.

etc.

So HODL is good since we are really very early adopters. The technologies and companies are yet to come.

PM me if you want to buy the rights off me Wink

Once you add the costs of 'insurance' and 'certification' (regulation?) you eliminate the frictionless advantage of bitcoin.

Instead I think people need to learn a little bit of self-reliance.

Bitcoin allows YOU to be in control.

What ever happened to the desire for freedom? the desire to be in control of your own destiny?
1679  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2014, 01:18:30 PM
Jorge they filed for bankruptcy protection.

is this true?

I thought they filed for bankruptcy.

I don't know Japanese law, but I have seen a Canadian company go through a bankruptcy protection. Some people at the company were fired, some quit, some stayed... Within 2 years they were back to business as usual. Admittedly, I watched this from the outside, I have no idea of the internal workings of the procedure.
1680  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here comes dat fear on: March 01, 2014, 01:46:15 AM
What do you old schoolers think is going to happen this time around, can we recover? The difference it seems this time is the Media on the hunt.

I don't even worry about it.

It's 1 or 0, same as always.

Things like this are why I am glad I decided to play bitcoin from the mining angle. If the outcome for bitcoin is 0, the hashing power of the miners will still be in demand for some other coin. (if SHA-256 is broken, then yeah, that would suck, but still, these things only have about a 1 year shelf life anyways, and as long as you only buy upgrades with profits, you won't get hurt too bad)
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