not talking about daily/monthly changes of market speculation..
but the quarterly-yearly underlying fundamentals of bitcoin are different than in spring 2022

energy prices increase meaning it costs hobby miners more to mine so if the price to buy bitcoin is cheaper then mining price its always good to buy
(energy prices have not impacted large farms as those large farms bought up energy contracts on lengthy 1-2 year contracts, which are yet to be renewed )

due to the next gen asics of june-october means the hashrate competition has had a new push too, meaning the amount of coin per miner is sliced by 20% which is also a market push trigger

also those told about the financial crisis of spring 2022. took out their assets. converted to fiat to buy up home-life stuff or business supplies before the inflation costs increase those supplies. and now they have hoarded stuff they would usually buy up slowly over a year. they now dont have to buy stuff now. so all income now can go back to re-investing in assets to hedge against inflation.

2023 will see a further push up, as it approaches the 2024 halving and also the impacts of inflation. but right now we are seeing large investors re-investing in bitcoin now they have organised their fiat business needs.

bitcoin does not waste energy. it uses the energy that would be produced anyway which previously was simply not sold.

by bitcoin as a new industry buying up more energy helps support power production to pay off its initial build costs earlier thus enabling them to expand sooner

with that now explaining that bitcoin is not a waste.. bitcoin is the sole network that uses the most energy to secure the network. it costs alot for a malicious pool to try to do a chain re-org. thus it secures the immutability of transactions

also with the cost of mining as a underlying (non-zero) value to the market price because no one would dare sell a bitcoin for a couple digits these days as no one can acquire bitcoin so cheap(unlike its forks/alts). this support is good for bitcoin as it adds to the store of value protection

bitcoin offers many things.
imagine you are a poor country earning a couple dollars a day salary. you cannot just put a bit of your salary towards buying Tesla or Apple shares as you have to buy whole shares just to become an investor. yet people can invest into bitcoin with as small amount as they like buying decimal amounts of bitcoin

bitcoin also has its own features where its deflationary, unlike things like tesla or apple shares. so its a better investment all round

bitcoin is better than gold asset(not commodity) feature
yes gold used for jewellery and electronics)commodity market) will always have its place. but buying gold to hoard for investment(asset market) has less features compared to bitcoin
storage, delivery, security is better with bitcoin. again if you wanted to buy a 1oz gold coin and get it delivered and secure stored at your home costs alot more then just buying 0.08btc

golds value window is a 900-2000 zone which the price wiggles within where as say 0.08btc currently is about $1.6k which is golds price
but that 0.08 has seen a 5 year value window of 320-5.6k

meaning the potential up-down of spread means more opportunity to profit by playing the swings
..
personally i have been able to travel to different countries without needing to hold paper cash in my suitcase or a debit card i can just remember a dozen words and not worry about border confiscations

i have given amounts away without having to set up bank account transfers or having to give over my bank details to others to debit my account

but the main thing is this
if i kept my fiat as fiat from 2012. the amount of groceries would not buy me as many groceries today.
if i stored it as gold and used the silly "cash for gold" services again les groceries today
but with bitcoin i can sell out even today and still buy alot more groceries than i would years ago. bitcoin is a better store over all long term than any investment i had in the past, whether its gold, shares, basic bank savings account or paper bank notes under the pillow. bitcoin is better than all

comparing bitcoin to other crypto.
their lack of underlying value. their speculative risk. their lack of utility makes them less desirable

the point is there is no choice, no if, no option, no could've of a maybe

he is not satoshi END OF
he has no keys END OF

point is people still use terminology as if there is a question mark beside CSW

its been 6 years. just declare it in your own heads
confirm it and make it immutable.. HE IS NOT

its no longer about proving he isnt satoshi..

its now showing how much of a fraudster CSW is as CSW
how much the man known as CSW needs to be punished for being a fraudster

trying to claw it back to debates about "we need to prove he isnt satoshi" is just adding a troll ?? at the end of the sentence which the silly idiots grab onto as if its not yet proven

so lets just use the proper terminology.. he isnt. no question. he just isnt
now its time to call him out for his crimes, lies and frauds

no one actually cared about someone claiming to be satoshi (just name grabbing) we had phases where we would all say "we are satoshi"
the point is the utility of the identity of having access to coins and able to maybe tweak code somehow was peoples concern about the identity.. well that identity debate is over. CSW is just NOT him.. end of

so now lets poke at the stuff CSW is. the malicious stuff, criminal and fraud stuff
lets wake up his disciples to how much the scammer has scammed his fangirls. get them to realise they were scammed financially and get them to start suing him

get his own crowd to start circling him . but not with kisses and hugs. but with court summons. make his world shrink

..
we ow need to stop with the "proof of satoshi" conversations
and begin the fraudster conversations

much like what people in 2019 started doing with the cryptoqueen(one coin) scam
no more playing identity tennis.. and instead start finding criminal holes to poke out that will get CSW in legal trouble.

here is one idea
done tweet ayres asking
"do you think csw is satoshi"
or
"what proof have you seen"

instead ask
"when are you going to sue CSW for scamming you"
"have you tried to get your cash out before its gone"

make it so that his fangirls have a deadline to test their own investment viability. how easily they can cash out and what excuses CSW uses.. start to get his buddies to start eciting

try to wake them up to then stand over CSW as a dark shadow for different reasons

no no no
he is not satoshi.. end of story
he does not have the keys end of story

now to explain
he is not and has never had the identity or keys. its not a choice. its a LIE

i could say i have the keys to the white house
instantly people know im bull shitting

there is no "franky1 chooses not to open the white house door"
its a simple fact i cannot and can never open the white house. end of story

..
i find it funny how people use terminology like "could" or "should"
or "choose"

he got debunked in 2015-16 . thats 6-7 years ago and people still think/hope he will provide proof

will you guys just get the hint already. there is no option no choice no hope.. he is not satoshi. accept it, move on

Leg-End
i know you are a ether fan girl
we get it. no need to self promote all the time

the thing is although ether allows many pennny pinchers to tokenise an eth. and convert that eth to genesis a new network where they can then sell pennies for obsscene prices

but you are ignoring the security of the underlying networks you adore. you only want to make bitcoin a network where you can lazily invest nothing but get passive income for free..

you forget that that energy is not wasted.
when energy is produced. it doesnt live for ever. once its done a lap around the grid it does not return to base to be put back into a box. once produced its used

energy companies want customers. they want people buying their energy. they even have to upgrade their production to cater to the future meaning the more customers they can get now the faster they can upgrade

when building a new 2GW power plant. they are not building to demand of today. they are planning ahead to build for the demand of 50+ years time
meaning the current demand today is 1GW to be ready to also cater to the the community of 2070 2GW estimate

but with population demand today of 1GW they are not fully utilising their capacity and only getting 50% of potential income now. thus they end up double charging customers.

where as if they can sell 0.2gw to bitcoin asic farms they can get more income and not have to charge the other 1GW as much

bitcoiners can buy up long term contracts to assure power companies of long term income and give then alot of money to start expanding more sooner rather than waiting decades for population growth to finally 'buy in' to the capacity

..
as for ethereums transition to PoS
what you are not realising is springs $1500 market price was backed by $700 of underlying mining costs that helped support its 'non zero' bottom market price from going to double digit prices

but now that underlying cost is less than $40 meaning that ethereum market price is more speculative bubble amount which can shrink down to double digit amounts

..
as for the security of bitcoin vs ethereum
when so much stake is stacked in coinbase.. if coinbase wanted to change some policy/rule.. thousands of users staked in coinbase will NOT vote against coinbase no matter the maliciousness of the new policy. because voting against coinbase does not hurt coinbase. it hurts the users who lose their stake. thus coinbase has a no-risk ability to change rules but users have a 100% risk of coinbase changing rules if rejected. and so coinbase ends up having more power to change the rules without resistance

bitcoin however. the mining investment vs code policy change does not harm users. users can just reject blocks . miners can easily pool jump in seconds without risk of that value but effectively protecting the network

bitcoins security model is better for all.. PoS is not

ok we had 10.5m coins in 2012
so if each coin generates 0.02coin per year
2013  10.5m = 10.71m
...
2048 20.99m =   21,418,817

so its already going to go passed the 21m limit in a 25 years

and by the actual bitcoin estimate of year 2140 = 132.4m

sorry but no.. inflation of coin with never ending supply is a cut away of multiple features of deflation

if you want an interest rate.. go play with the fiat market.
bitcoin is deflationary to hedge against fiat interest

many people in this topic read the word "regulation" and jump straight to "kyc"

sorry no. regulations are bigger then this
regulations can also be in the form of the EPA deciding that asic farms cannot exceed Xmw
or cannot use hardware that is above Xhash/kw
regulations can also be helpful where a business has to establish an 'insurance' policy against loss so that people have some form of 'penny on the dollar' return no matter what

as well as a business cannot be trusted to custodianise billions of $ of coins unless their management has been on some economics management course and had previous experience in the sector to show they are proficient to be licenced to do the job

its like would you like a professional car engineer doing your car maintenance if the only experience they have of replacing carb brakes is using duct-tape and glue..


AML KYC is not needed for every regulated business
take your local KFC chicken restaurant. they accept money. they are regulated by the food/health agency and the best business practice agencies. . but doesnt need AML KYC


what people need to realise bitcoin only entered the realms of the SEC that does have AMLKYC policies as part of its bank secrecy act and FATF is because part of bitcoins transition to being main stream was being recognised no longer as a property but as a currency

..
i say this becasue we can actually bring things back to how bitcoin functioned 2009-2014 where people would swap it for fiat like pokemon cards or antiques where its treated like a collectable not a currency

this would then allow us to have more control over our coins as our property and not have to be fighting certain regulation policy points certain people dont like

..
that said their would always be regulations. but instead of broadly handing over jurisdiction to agencies to decide how people should treat bitcoin. it can be more independant where different communities treat bitcoin differently and thus restricted by different things or protected by other things

but instead we will just have as we do now years of certain people not doing research not understanding how things work and just being upset that they want to call bitcoin not fit for purpose and then go about advertising other networks

bitcoin will always have some form of regulation. but lets actually get active and be more involved in the regulations we want to see

EG exchange businesses.. less KYC compliant required. but more consumer insurance required. more safeguards and auditing of the businesses to protect the consumer

we should be pushing for reduction on rules that harm users. and more regulations that restrict businesses from just opening up boiler rooms/scams. (where users are put at risk with no resolution) so that users can then easily interact with bitcoin and fiat without headache or fear

a low "interest" mechanism that continues endlessly is not deflationary

its the poors mans lottery of thinking they are gaining something for nothing, getting free things

i see alot of small minded people always looking for ways to scam a system for free coin for doing nothing. such as trying to get BTC to change to PoS so people can stake at zero loss for passive income

many even say if coin is locked for 10 years it should be treated as lost and the redistributed to everyone

all these silly idea's are not to have something deflationary. but to just hand out "pennies on the dollar" to everyone to make everyone think they are getting more coin for free, like a free accumilator system.. but not realising that this free accumiliator system of passive incomes the want fo doin no work. ends up with the conversion rate to native fiat not be deflationary, meaning they end up gaining nothing in the long term

but yet people dont want asset investing/saving for long term (retirement, kids college) they just want quick free extra to cash out asap and return to fiat better off.. not realising once back in fiat the value of that amount is then lost

bitcoin is something completely different to the fiat system
if you want 5% a year interest.. go play with a PoS coin

if you want something thats better than share/stock trading for long term investment. then bitcoin is th thing. with the extra's of having the ability to move spend or redistribute without needing a bankers account and a manager to sign you into terms of use

firstly halving is one deflationary mechanism

another is the hashrate competition (more competitors=less slice of reward each)

then there is the electric, as fiat electric prices go up. the price per btc changes too

then there is the markets

there are many deflationary features.
jut learn to buy low sell high and not wait for the high before buying

210exa hashrate of an asic gen: 110thash for 3.25kw at $0.04/kw
=~$6.6k of just electric per btc

260exa hashrate of an asic gen: 140thash for 3kw at $0.04/kw
=~$5.9k of just electric per btc

so although hashrate has gone up.
the amount of electric used has gone down

---

next phase is those miners at the bottom cost will be met with some other miners with higher cost that can mine for profit again. this pushes a healthy mining competition forward.

and new entrants with same electric cost per kw but using less kw

these new entrants will have 2 year contracts of electric and new hardware lifetime so they wont give up.

which then means those getting 0.0x coin per block will get slightly less coin per block due to the competitors taking a slice

which due to less coin per miner with more competition. means that the market price per decimal amount of btc changes.

instead of 0.0001btc which they sold for $1.90
instead of 0.00008btc* which they sold for $1.90
*20% less coin due to 50% more competition

which means the price of whole BTC goes up

now thats the theory
but because its not as clear in that separations of amounts the price is not clearly jumping by those amounts
but its why the prices are slowly moving upwards to protect a new 'bottom' that is going to be higher that the start of the years 'bottom'

the window of value which the price wiggles inbetween was

2020: $4k-$40k
2021: $10k-$75k
2022: $15k-$95k (average)
2022: $16k-$106k (oct)

this is not based on market price data. its the underlying and high cost of mining

there is no possibility of a $150k btc right now

its the simple knowledge if everyone under the sun can min for less than $10k right now there is not real reason for anyone to buy bitcoin for more then they can acquire by other means
its why in previous ATH they top out at a certain level


yes market price speculates above the current bottom underling cost because not everyone can mine at the low cost.. so prices are random speculative depending on sentiment and personal levels

but there is always a top and bottom window people cant or wont go below or above

if you base your view on a western map where china is on the right and america is on the left. you would think like that

try thinking from a different prospective
the earth is round.. not flat.. if you keep travelling west you can visit every country

the cost of mining is not equal

the electric prices /kwh range from $0.04 to $0.45

there are some places in america which were mining using higher electric cost then the base level but doing so as a gamble/promise
this is where they would get 2 investment companies.. one to pay the electric one to pay the hardware.. and both then get back Xbtc per block solve with the hope that the market price would have moved up sooner

this does not mean all mining is unprofitable.
this means a positive

the cost over all is increasing meaning those mining are going to stop selling coin so cheap. which as we seen in recent days meant that the price of the bitcoin market moves up

for those already with mining costs above the market price they become BUYERS because its cheaper to buy btc than mine it

this flip to buyer status help bring up the market price along with the lack of sellers able/willing to sell cheaper

along with calvyn ayres multiple times saying he thinks CSW is satoshi due to having spoke to CSW family

i call this comedy "proof of mom"

seems calvin only trusts CSW family lineage as proof of CSW claims.
I guess it could be, he doesnt want to say that CSW gave some documents/proof(files/forgeries) to ayres. thus doesnt want authorities seizing his devices. by saying the only 'proof' he has is verbal conversations with people

in fiat land. people used to only be able to buy whole shares and when 1 share was many hundreds of dollars. third world country citizens could not afford to buy single shares because their $3 a week wage (ignorant people call "coffee amount") meant they couldnt buy a single tesla share unless they saved up for years

yet bitcoin came around to solve that. allow people to buy decimal amounts every week to skip the 'save to buy' and just go straigh tto the buy stage

but then the ignorant "coffee amount" preachers then tried to say bitcoin was not fit for the 3rd world countries where bitcoin should not be used for the unbanked, in their narrow minded view. and so tried to push for 3rd world countries to adopt a sub network. offramping people away from bitcoin to this weak, insecure subnetwork

now they are saying the 3rd world countries are not "techies" and shouldnt run independent nodes but instead put their value into the trust of a custodian wallet
silly thing is that this weak subnetwork, has no big rules. thus it is not difficult to build user friendly GUI's. but as its well known when devs cant be bothered to make rules, secure a network and then make the network userfriendly.. that network is not going to succeed. but hey they dont care. they just want control and limit users abilities in the elites favour


(i mentioned this phase years ago about moving from hop model to hub/soke model of "factories"/custodians)


these ignorant people have been seen in the last couple days to start to word this subnetwork as a more risk aware less utopian promise. and even try to be more realistic by saying the unit of measure is not "bitcoin" but a different unit which they start calling LN-btc.. much like other subnetworks dont define their units as bitcoin but (binance: WBTC, liquid LBTC)

so although they have now started to sound more realistic to the risk awareness and difference of the networks and security models and utility(a positive) they are still trying to limit what 3rd world countries have access to, where only the elites can get the parts that 'make' profit at the jeopardy of the poor who have to trust the elites wont abuse such system

such a shame they wasted 5 years going down that avenue..

ok lets use another example of a benefit of a bitcoin collateral backed loan on a 24month hold


imagine you have 1000 asics (140thash each at 3kwh each)
(140petahash for 3mw)
using efficient electric contract of 4cent /kwh
$40 an hour for a 2 year contract is $700,800
meaning if you traditionally had to pay upfront the contract to lock in the kwh needed to run those asics for 2 years
you would normally have to sell 35+ btc upfront.. never seeing that coin again.. its gone. the electric company keeps all the fiat

however. by doing it as a loan. you instead escrow/lock that 35btc and
binance pays your electric bill with fiat

and in 24 months (loan fiat=840960with 2x10%)
if the btc market price is say:
$25k : binance owes you 1.5 coins back. meaning its made your electric even cheaper
$30k : binance owes you 7 coins back. meaning its made your electric even cheaper

yes if the btc market price stays below $24k then you owe binance more
but if the market price grows above $24k then binance gives you a refund of some coin..

however selling coin to then go to a normal fiat lender and then lock it up as a fiat collateral or make monthly payments.. you lose. so no going to a fiat lender is never a good idea. you might aswell  just pay your bill interest free, rather than using a fiat lender.

however a btc lender allowing for a collateral loan in btc has some benefit(as long as the market price grows by $5k amount in 2 years)

..
personal note.. i never take out loans. i live within my means and i am not advertising binance. but just explaining its not a 100% negative proposition for some users that afford the risks if they have done the research to understand the risk:reward potentials

i wouldnt recommend loans. but binance is offering an option thats better than a fiat establishment loan

let me translate

he is the chief spokes person of many companies he and his team created, where he gets other people to code .. that is not a scientist. thats a "manager"

its about as useful as saying that dick wolf is the executive producer of thousands of tv episodes. yet if you see his day to day activities, he is never onset of any of them all the time

CSW does not have good coding skills. in all of his businesses he has had "ghost writers" he employs to develop things. heck he even employed kids to write his assignments for his degrees

it would be more apt if he titled himself a CTO (technology officer) rather than science.

CSW has a theology mindset, he believes in getting people to believe his is someone others should believe in without proof... that is again not science
...
as for who is behind hodlonaut. well there are court documents that reveal hodlonaut birth name. but we respect hodlonaut to not mention/repeat on the forum because its not important

as for hodlonaut actions.. just because there are many people before hodlonaut that called out on CSW scams does not mean their is someone behind hodlonaut puppeteering him. from what i have seen he has done his own research and came to his own conclusions and wrote things in his own mindset of his well researched opinion of CSW. as have others. this does not mean there is some puppet master agenda. this means many people have found CSW to be a fool, scammer and liar and we all independently want to inform and remind everyone not to become a cult like follower of a scammer and liar

its $660k of which $460k is the lawyers costs and $100k for the KMPG expert data

anyway next social drama i can see CSW play
a. pretend he made payments using false documents. and drag out another case to cause disruption trying to prove/disprove payment
b. claim CSW never said he was satoshi but the surviving member of team satoshi where all patents and ownerships are locked up in some inaccessible trust not able to release at this point. thus try to reignoite his long con
c. say he lost the defame case due to hodlonaut not being the first guy to out CSW and then start suing people from earlier debunks

...
as for calvin ayres

i think he just outted himself as a pedo

his crap story as a freelance sex traffic task force officer.. thats complete bullcrap. its obvious he fears some of CSW court trials may end up with ayres computers being seized as evidence and when they find kiddy crap on his computer he wants to have a plausible "white hat" story for why he has such crap on his computer
or if found at some illegal underage brothel he wants a reason to make it sound good as to why..

i know the case started with the courts saying it did not want to be involved in proving/disproving "satoshi". where it only wanted to decide on if hodlonaut was the genesis instigator of CSW negative rep.. which is clear he was not. but i am also glad the court also mentioned that CSW us a proven liar and that the evidence still points to that CSW is not satoshi

i bet hodlonaut is currently excited, happy, relieved, exhausted and celebrating. i can imagine him now relieving the dead weight off his shoulders, that was pressing on him for the last 3 years, he deserves a stiff drink and a vacation to finally relax. and bask in the glory


i also hope this result wakes up the CSW fangirls where they start to sue CSW for misled investments, maybe even hope some whistle blow on some CSW criminal scams that can get CSW in criminal court with some proper punishment...


..
anyway hodlonauut deserves the ~$670k of which ~$450k is legal costs plus all the celebrations, congratulations and donations we as a community want to give him.

current gen asics are 140th for 3kw

hashrate is ~280exa = 2m asics of current gen

meaning of the 37.5btc/hour..
is 0.00001875 an hour per 140thash asic on average
=$0.36
if you have electric at 10cents /kwh = 30cent for 3kwh

thus 6cents an hour to go towards the hardware/profit
which spread over 2 years is only $1k. thus doesnt cover hardware cost

the bitcoin price would need to be ~$35k to break even for electric and hardware cost.. at electric cost of 10cent/kw

at 4cent /kw the price would need to be $23k to break even for 2 year break even for hardware and electric

so right now. miners would not want to spend good bitcoin of their own to buy hardware, because right now buying hardware using their own money is a bad deal.

but taking out a loan where there is no "payments" at all for 24 months. but knowing the deflationary nature of bitcoin. by locking up X btc as collateral. means. that by causing a hashrate competition push, will help push the underlying value of bitcoin(because those with low costs will have raised costs so stop being willing to sell for cheap prices)
which will push the price up making it profitable to mine over the next 2 years, and when the 2 years are up and they have to pay up, the price should be more then the pre-requisite amount thus the number of coins they have to surrender is less than how much they would lose now by buying now

oh and taking out a normal fiat loan using a normal bank loan.. well that does require monthly payments during the 2 years rather than a collateral lock for 25 months. so a normal fiat loan even at 5% is a bad idea because you are still having to spend out your own money sooner rather than later
..