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1581  Economy / Economics / Re: The world continues dumping US dollar (Gold, New World Order, World War III) on: February 03, 2023, 08:09:37 AM
Currently, the US dollar has no competitors. 

CNY?
Euro?
Swiss frank?

US dollar also has no reason to be used.

The replacement depends on who is trading with whom. If for example Europe is trading with Russia, they have no reason to use dollar. They use their own currencies (meaning both Euro and Ruble). Same with China.
If it is the SCO members trading with each other they will use the currency that the organization comes up with. Same with BRICS.

Obviously all of that won't happen overnight but we are heading towards that direction. Many European countries are already paying Russia in Ruble buying their energy (eg. LNG imports).


Although I understand the debate that the U.S. Dollar's excessively high "privilege" might be fading away, saying that "the Dollar has no reason to be used" is an extremely flawed statement. It's not that simple.

It probably is true for sanctioned countries like Russia, North Korea, or Venezuela, but for the rest of the world, the U.S. Dollar is still the Global Reserve Currency that they are willing to spend/accept, willing to save/hold, and that's easy to obtain.
1582  Economy / Economics / Re: The world continues dumping US dollar (Gold, New World Order, World War III) on: February 02, 2023, 10:59:16 AM
Gold buyers binge on biggest volumes for 55 years
Central banks are scooping up gold at the fastest pace since 1967, with analysts pinning China and Russia as big buyers in an indication that some nations are keen to diversify their reserves away from the dollar.
Data compiled the World Gold Council, an industry-funded group, has shown demand for the precious metal has outstripped any annual amount in the past 55 years. Last month’s estimates are also far larger than central banks’ official reported figures, sparking speculation in the industry over the identity of the buyers and their motivations.

The last time this level of buying was seen marked a historical turning point for the global monetary system. In 1967, European central banks bought massive volumes of gold from the US, leading to a run on the price and the collapse of the London Gold Pool of reserves. That hastened the eventual demise of the Bretton Woods System that tied the value of the US dollar to the precious metal.
Last month the WCG estimated the world’s official financial institutions have bought 673 tonnes. And in the third quarter alone central banks bought almost 400 tonnes of gold, the largest three-month binge since quarterly records began in 2000.

https://i.imgur.com/VrRBcny.png

“The message these central banks are sending by putting a larger share of their reserves in gold is that they don’t want to be reliant on the US dollar as their main reserve asset,” Menke said.
Some in the industry speculate Middle Eastern governments are using fossil fuel export revenues to buy gold, most likely through sovereign wealth funds.

The world continues dumping US dollar, I've already talked about India buying gold and many times about Iran accumulating gold over the past couple of years. Now we have evidence of the other Eastern powers buying large amounts of gold. Many other smaller countries that don't fall into the global geopolitics like Qatar, Turkey, Uzbekistan, some African countries, etc. are also accumulating more gold.
 
This is the New World Order that is forming in front of our eyes, the old Dollar standard is slowly but surely going away which is causing high inflation in US as all the unbacked dollars they'd printed all these years are being dumped on USA itself and even higher inflation is seen in any country that is importing US inflation like Europe. Experts suggest that if US wasn't exporting its inflation, the real US inflation would have been somewhere north of 450% and that's where it's headed as the dollar dumping continues.

I recently watched an analyst who suggested that this is World War 3 which will be fought (at least for now) economically. The East vs. West as the East dumps US dollar that strains US economy. China suddenly lets loose COVID on the world (this past 2 weeks) that is already showing an increase in EU and US. Oil price ends the year with the 2nd straight annual gain and the general high energy prices among other things is slowly rendering EU useless as an economy and industrial power.

Although economy is not the only battlefield (we have energy, food and actual armed conflict between proxies) but it is affecting us the most. It is even affecting bitcoin price as it has successfully prevented its rise to higher ATH last year and even changed its bull trend and crashed the price below the previous (2017) ATH for the first time in bitcoin history.

With that said, 2023 outlook is already bad economically speaking.
How much of the points I raised do you agree with and how do you see 2023 specially when dollar dumping continues?


Tin-foil hats on, but I would also like to inform the people in the topic that the Central Banks haven't purchased this amount of Gold since 1967, which is also said to have brought out the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

Plus when Central Banks around the world hold this much Gold, they are targets for a more powerful state's military. New World Order is possible indeed.
1583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bye Bye Bear Market :) on: February 02, 2023, 10:35:45 AM
I will not agree that we are out of bearish market until we have to reach june 2023, because their is every tendency that Bitcoin can rise today and fall tomorrow as i started previously in another thread as i stated. But i believe that Bitcoin if the bond is strong i will not say we are out of the bearish market


To play Devil's Advocate, the price may not be out of "a bearish cycle", but there are indicators that Bitcoin might go out of it soon, fundamental indicators.



HODLers are increasing, which also indicates that the sellers unburdening themselves from their "heavy loads" are absorbed by long term investors who are buying the DIP the sellers are causing. Those who are buying the DIPs during the bear cycle are the same people who are front-running everyone during the bull cycle.
1584  Economy / Gambling / Re: Blackjack.fun | Live tables |SLOTS| Baccarat | InstantWithraw| v3.0 Launched! | on: February 02, 2023, 06:25:42 AM
Good news for the blackjack.fun community. Admin just made an announcement that Blackjack.fun has now a Rakeback system where people will earn everyday 20% of the rake back to their main wallet once the daily contests end. So this is now another big opportunity.

Those who are waiting for rakeback system, here it is now. So enjoy this for now and wait for another big news what would be come this or next week.


What does that mean "after the daily contests end"? Are the Admins changing the user-rewards system from community voting/leaderboards system that goes to the bonus wallet for clearing, to just a simpler rakeback/cashback system like many of the other casinos are doing?

The rakeback system is a decision going towards the right path moving forward in my opinion. I believe there are many players, like me, who tried to clear the balance in their bonus wallets, and gave up. Kudos to the Admins!

I meant when the daily contest leaderboards are paid the rakeback also will be right away. I meant the daily cut-off time for rakeback is the same as other contest times. I hope it's now clear to you.

Btw I have already mentioned that the rakeback will go to directly the main wallet. So you can play/withdraw the rakeback right away without any wager requirements.


OK, that's defintely good news. Thanks for posting in the topic.

What 20% rakeback will start doing is incentivize the casino's users, and encourage them to play more, WHILE ALSO complementing the wagering requirements of the balances held in their bonus wallets. Kudos to the BlackJack.Fun admins who thought of the update. Diggy's Narnia will definitely need more lotion again.

Sujonali, in the future, does Black.Jack.Fun have an interest to add the Lightning Network as part of their deposit method?
1585  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Thinking of separating my holdings into two physical locations. on: February 02, 2023, 06:10:51 AM
For safety from $5.00 wrench attacks, or any kind of robbery that involves violence, what's everyone's opinion in keeping away from purchasing, and owning any hardware devices that are directly associated with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? I believe that it's going to be a problem when some people see you own a hardware wallet, the presumption would be = you own "a lot of Bitcoin".
The same reasoning can also be applied to credit/debit cards, leather wallets, and other "containers" of money: people who have or use them in public are clearly not that poor. Yet, we rarely see people being attacked just after paying at the checkout of a grocery store.


Because they have grown to be very common in modern society. Especially the usage of Credit Cards today, they're more viewed as something that's holding debt to the banks than a status symbol. Perhaps 70 years ago when the first Credit Cards were issued to important clients, they were good targets for robberies. Currently, no. Credit Card holders usually have more debt than wealth.

I'm debating because of the novelty of cryptocurrencies, and how some of its HODLers are probably in a path of accumulating wealth because they are HODLing the right coins. A smart criminal would target them, and one way to find that target? Hardware Wallets.
1586  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Thinking of separating my holdings into two physical locations. on: February 01, 2023, 11:13:43 AM
For safety from $5.00 wrench attacks, or any kind of robbery that involves violence, what's everyone's opinion in keeping away from purchasing, and owning any hardware devices that are directly associated with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? I believe that it's going to be a problem when some people see you own a hardware wallet, the presumption would be = you own "a lot of Bitcoin".
1587  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador has become the first country to make #Bitcoin legal tender! 🇸🇻 on: February 01, 2023, 08:41:08 AM
Currently, there are many of the "elites" in the legacy financial industry that views Chad Bukele and Chad Saylor, and disregard most of what they are preaching/teaching/saying/showing the public. BUT within 10 years, I believe that everyone will remember the two of them from the bear market of 2021 - 2023, and perceive that, as it happened, THEY might not be sufficiently bullish.

 Cool
1588  Economy / Gambling / Re: Blackjack.fun | Live tables |SLOTS| Baccarat | InstantWithraw| v3.0 Launched! | on: February 01, 2023, 08:24:22 AM
Good news for the blackjack.fun community. Admin just made an announcement that Blackjack.fun has now a Rakeback system where people will earn everyday 20% of the rake back to their main wallet once the daily contests end. So this is now another big opportunity.

Those who are waiting for rakeback system, here it is now. So enjoy this for now and wait for another big news what would be come this or next week.


What does that mean "after the daily contests end"? Are the Admins changing the user-rewards system from community voting/leaderboards system that goes to the bonus wallet for clearing, to just a simpler rakeback/cashback system like many of the other casinos are doing?

The rakeback system is a decision going towards the right path moving forward in my opinion. I believe there are many players, like me, who tried to clear the balance in their bonus wallets, and gave up. Kudos to the Admins!
1589  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for defation in 2023" on: February 01, 2023, 05:48:48 AM
@windfury
you were trying to infer that FED actions were going to cause a BITCOIN SURGE
i first responded to correct your notions of how the fiat economy works. and in later posts  that not only will there not be a bitcoin surge to the extents you imagine. but  how FED actions doent imply/cause bitcoin surge reactions

i explained what does cause bitcoin surges

you then deviated to say none of your topic was about bitcoin economy but only fed fiat economy. which i then quoted your "bitcoin surge like its 2015-7" to remind you that you stated it was about bitcoin surging


Is Bitcoin in an open market or not? Because the presumption is, although debatable, the Federal Reserve, and other other Central Banks, actions, ARE going to cause the Economy and almost EVERY TRADED ASSET in most open markets to surge or crash. It's a simple monetary phenomenon. If they print more money in circulation, it causes more demand = prices go up, inflation goes up. If they tighten and take money out of circulation, it lessens demand = prices go down, a deflationary cycle will come. I will admit again, that a 2015 - 2017 surge, it's debatable, but if the presumption that the Federal Reserve will over-adjust AGAIN on monetary expansion is right, then it's very possible.
1590  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: February 01, 2023, 05:30:47 AM
All I have to say on this matter is this won't end well for Bitcoin if this becomes a spam chain.

NFT's are a WASTE of time we are supposed to be focused on being MONEY not a "utility" chain for data.

Satoshi clearly said NO to data on chain when BitDNS was proposed.

I think this is a stupid concept and idea and should not get any attention let's get back to being sound money.. Nothing more.


While I do understand what your debating in your post, and I have just researched about the "OP_RETURN Wars" after reading it in NotATether's post, but I have the same question as those other Bitcoiners who may or may not believe that the Bitcoin blockchain should or should not be a "utility chain". What was the use of the OP_RETURN Wars if Taproot would allow people to put arbritary data in the blockchain again freely?


In other words people are exploiting Taproot for spamming bitcoin blockchain with garbage like back in early years where they placed it simply in the output script at any arbitrary size. Suffice it to say that that spam forced the introduction of very limiting standard rules that prevented such spams and the introduction of OP_RETURN with an 80 byte limit to manage the spam size.

In short all I see here is just an exploit of a protocol (Taproot scripts) that was not meant to be used this way so that they can inject arbitrary data that another self-defined and self-enforced protocol can detect and is not detected or enforced by the Bitcoin protocol. Like a side-chain jammed into bitcoin blockchain instead of having its own chain.


Or a new attack vector. It could be used in different nefarious ways, like bringing unnecessary, extra bloat to the blockchain, and perhaps also make people believe some Satoshis' "serial numbers" are worth more than a Satoshi, causing the currency to be not fungible.
1591  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Tools for analysis on: January 31, 2023, 12:43:33 PM
The basic cryptocurrency trading indicators are good tools for market analysis but there result is also useless at some point so it's better to also have fundamental knowledge about the crypto market, and things that impact the market (an example is mining difficulty which always influences the price of Bitcoin market and its the thing the result to the current bullish in the price we see in Bitcoin market).


No, I believe they are not, especially if there's too many people who are looking at the same indicators, making their trades more "transparent" then therefore easier to counter-trade by the smarter traders.

OP, I read your PM in my inbox. I believe the best strategy for us plebs is to make our investments by HODLing them very long term in mind. We make less mistakes, and some of the mistakes can be corrected through dollar-cost-averaging. But if you want a more active trading strategy, I suggest "Index Building". There was a Cryptocurrency Indexing Building site before called Panda Analytics, but it's currently down. Find an alternative, and post it in the topic if you find one.
1592  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: January 31, 2023, 12:27:19 PM
Developed by Casey Rodarmor, he built Ordinals to give its users the ability to transfer individual Satoshis between each other by taking advantage of the Taproot upgrade, which can also store NFT data in Taproot script-path spend scripts.

I'm still learning about it by reading and rereading this blog, https://read.pourteaux.xyz/p/illegitimate-bitcoin-transactions

n0nce, pooyah, and others who are technical/high IQ, please ELI-5 for the newbies and the plebs like me. Haha.

Plus what's everyone's opinions/thoughts about Ordinals?

Quote

This handbook is a guide to ordinal theory. Ordinal theory concerns itself with satoshis, giving them individual identities and allowing them to be tracked, transferred, and imbued with meaning.

Satoshis, not bitcoin, are the atomic, native currency of the Bitcoin network. One bitcoin can be sub-divided into 100,000,000 satoshis, but no further.

Ordinal theory does not require a sidechain or token aside from Bitcoin, and can be used without any changes to the Bitcoin network. It works right now.

Ordinal theory imbues satoshis with numismatic value, allowing them to be collected and traded as curios.

Individual satoshis can be inscribed with arbitrary content, creating unique Bitcoin-native digital artifacts that can be held in Bitcoin wallets and transferred using Bitcoin transactions. Inscriptions are as durable, immutable, secure, and decentralized as Bitcoin itself.

https://docs.ordinals.com/introduction.html

1593  Economy / Economics / Re: "Surprisingly, Tail Emission Is Not Inflationary" -- A post by Peter Todd on: January 31, 2023, 08:21:44 AM
What if the Bitcoin community could get consensus on building another chain, let's call it "The Miner Chain", that's merged mined with Bitcoin to continue incentivizing the miners through the "Miner Chain" with block rewards, for them to keep securing the network? Would that be a possible solution? Or would it just be something that could make some problems on the incentive structure?

Effect in theory might be bad, but it might start something that could lead to a more feasible solution.
1594  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Issues with Proof-of-Work on: January 31, 2023, 08:06:34 AM

@windfury
you are now showing you are doing some research along with the examples in the  MAHF topic. seems you are gaining confidence to do your own research and break away/not rely on the social spoonfeeds of the madhatter group(doomad/blackhat)

so . for now. ill refrain from calling you a default idiot. as long as you keep up the confidence to do your own research

do it for no one else, not even me. do it for your own mental wellness and your own fact finding efforts

do not fear the time it takes to do the research because even though it takes time. its less time then the years wasted finding social drama reasons to refuse to do the research for yourself


 Roll Eyes

Gaslighting again, franky-101? Don't make it look that I have just made all of "my research" recently. I, and some of the other more out-spoken people in the forum, have been informing, and telling what's technically true about Bitcoin when you were spreading disinformation about it.

Plus, I must thank you that you and Joland_Fyookball helped me learn THE HARD WAY about Bitcoin, after all of the technical disinformation that you did. That shouldn't happen to newbies, and plebs like me again. You mislead many people.
1595  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for defation in 2023" on: January 31, 2023, 04:20:35 AM
@windfury
you were the one talking about
"defation in 2023"
"Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017"


I believe you didn't get the context, franky. Read OP. The point of the topic is the cabal of the Federal Reserve's tendency to over-adjust, which causes the boom-bust cycles in the economy.

I posted, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg61609753#msg61609753

A Deflation in 2023, IF it DOES happen, what will the cabal of the Federal Reserve do based on what they have always done during the past recessionary periods? They always did QE/BRRRRR-Money-Printing which causes everything to surge and start another super cycle of bullishness.
1596  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Tools for analysis on: January 30, 2023, 11:30:36 AM
OP, it's not the tool, it's YOU. We plebs can suggest every different tool available from the internet from you to use in your day-trading, but it can't change the fact that WE plebs might not have the necessary resources/capital and the necessary qualities to trade against the traders that have the capital and the qualities. BUT if you truly want a suggestion for "a tool", obviously the most common suggestion that's free, and very useful to start learning Technical Analysis is Trading View.
1597  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Thinking of separating my holdings into two physical locations. on: January 30, 2023, 10:56:48 AM

What do you think? I don't think it would make sense, for example to have copies of the seeds of both HW's at both sites because in a $5 wrench attack I could lose everything.

One drawback I see is that if the house burns down I would lose everything I manage with one HW, but well, that risk I also had now, having 100% of the management of my holdings in one site.


It depends on you. I personally have my main cold-storage seeds in encrypted USBs, hidden in different secret locations. One secret location is in my house, another one in my car, another at work, and the last one in my old room in my parents' house. They all look cheap, ordinary USBs, with directories named "My Files" with old useless/random files from work scattered with the encrypted folder nested in another folder with more random files that contains the seeds. The USBs can only be opened in Linux
1598  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Casino games plebs like us must play on: January 30, 2023, 07:10:41 AM
I myself have exercised self-control to be able to stop and control my emotions while playing gambling, but it was difficult because curiosity arose and I wanted to win in this game or bet.
Indeed, you can stop for a few minutes to calm yourself and your mind, but in the end, after that, it's back to playing and that's what I always do.
Maybe losing all the money and not having anything can make someone stop gambling in an instant and for quite a long time, especially if you don't have a source of income, you can be sure that you will never enter the world of gambling again.

It is because your brain has already forced itself to remember that gambling gives you pleasure, and the nerves at the region in your brain that controls the release of feel-good hormones whenever you gamble has already been wired to respond to gambling positively.


It's DOPAMINE. There was a study that people addicted to gambling, sex, and drugs showed the same patterns under MRI.

Quote

It's incredibly difficult to go against your brain when it comes pleasure, as it's extremely hard to curb whatever activities give you pleasure because your brain will always choose the one that you feel the most pleasure in. Even if you lose a lot of money in gambling, your brain will always claw back in to getting your feel, hence why you feel addicted to gambling even though you don't have any means to gamble. You may feel bad at first, but these feelings of regret cannot really overwhelm the feeling of pleasure that your brain wants to get.


It's probably also the same when you're trading cryptocurrencies. The thrill of taking a risk in a shitcoin will perhaps release more dopamines in your brain than buying Bitcoin, then sitting on your hands for the HODL. Hahaha.

It might also be why 90% of people trying to "trade" lose their capital because they can't stop themselves from looking for their next dopamine rush.
1599  Economy / Economics / Re: Feb 1 FOMC meeting on: January 30, 2023, 05:46:03 AM

FOMC has more influence on stocks, currencies of emerging countries and borrowing, but it has less influence on gold and Bitcoin despite all attempts to link them.

The market is now thirsty for any news, and it will cause a domino effect, even if that news does not have a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin.

For example, during the past 10 days, the price increased by a large percentage, without any different economic news than before.


The "less influence on Gold, and Bitcoin" either increase or it decreases depending on the situation of the market. Everyone should try to research about Pearson Correlation Coefficients between different cryptocurrencies, then include Gold and Bitcoin. If the value is = 0.50 - 0.75, it's fairly correlated, and if the value is = 0.75 and above, it's definitely closely correlated. It changes from cycle to cycle or cycles within a longer cycle.

My guess would be, its yearly value might be around some points above 0.50 because check the charts of Bitcoin and SPX Index. The peak during 2021, and the valley during 2022 were mere months different.
1600  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Issues with Proof-of-Work on: January 30, 2023, 05:25:05 AM

@windfury
POW is a mechanism to make an expensive id
NO where did i say useless (dont even start more social drama by injecting your own words)


I was just merely making the reason clearer for the newbies, and the plebs like me, franky. I never said you were doing something in this topic.

 Cool

satoshi chose PoW instead of PoS because


Incorrect,

Satoshi choose PoW because it was the only option available in 2008 for what he wanted.


Satoshi chose POW because it was the only FEASIBLE option available, and it STILL currently remains the only feasible option right now.

Plus in case many of you forgot, Wei Dai's B-Money experimented with a form of Proof Of Stake, I believe it was the first  to resemble a POS coin, but later said it was impractical because it couldn't solve the double-spend problem.

Quote

Since the servers must be trusted to a degree, some mechanism is needed to
keep them honest. Each server is required to deposit a certain amount of
money in a special account to be used as potential fines or rewards for
proof of misconduct.

http://www.weidai.com/bmoney.txt

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