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1441  Economy / Economics / Re: Silicone Valley Bank bust in 48 hours - Crypto exchanges could be doomed easily! on: March 15, 2023, 06:19:53 AM
"Nouriel Roubini", the Bitcoin FUDster, and the same person who predicted many times that Bitcoin would die many times, and yet the network continues to chug along and continue to produce block after block.

But because of the Federal Reserve's "over-tightening", I believe more banks will crash, but should that be seen as a confirmation that the Federal Reserve made a mistake by "over-tightening"? I believe not, it should be seen as a validation that the tightening is starting to work. Banks will break, exchanges that hold their funds in those banks will also break.
1442  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: March 15, 2023, 06:05:46 AM

to fully enforce a fee mechanism to scare(not completely stop) meme bloat requires enforcing full node compliance to reject blocks that contain transactions that dont honour the fee mechanism, which can cause forks

yet meme bloat have other tricks to pay less than the average so even with such enforcement it wont completely stop them


Plus to fully enforce something that will break the incentive structure, which I will sound like a broken record to SAY that it's truly what's making everything stick together, will definitely risk breaking Bitcoin. I believe from the miners' and full nodes' viewpoint, transactions should only be merely transactions, it shouldn't matter from where it came from, to who it's sent to, or what kind of transaction it might be, let the fee market do its job.

nah its not.. but nice try. i guess the latest campaign script has deceived you again
forget the campaigners that recruited you...
. forget their scripts for one moment
where you are pretending to be against the bloat memes. but then loudly saying you dont want the meme spam to stop and instead want everyone else to pay more


You're not getting the context. I actually agree to the debate that changes in the fee structure might break Bitcoin. Simply, I'm saying don't take the risk of playing with the incentive structure that has already been set in place. Let the fee market do its job, and figure itself out.

I'm not debating for Ordinals either, but don't "fix" any part of the network that doesn't need any "fixing".
1443  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: March 15, 2023, 04:12:53 AM

to fully enforce a fee mechanism to scare(not completely stop) meme bloat requires enforcing full node compliance to reject blocks that contain transactions that dont honour the fee mechanism, which can cause forks

yet meme bloat have other tricks to pay less than the average so even with such enforcement it wont completely stop them


Plus to fully enforce something that will break the incentive structure, which I will sound like a broken record to SAY that it's truly what's making everything stick together, will definitely risk breaking Bitcoin. I believe from the miners' and full nodes' viewpoint, transactions should only be merely transactions, it shouldn't matter from where it came from, to who it's sent to, or what kind of transaction it might be, let the fee market do its job.
1444  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Startup for Technical Indicator Alarms on: March 14, 2023, 02:02:37 PM
OP, it's not the tool that's going to be a problem for you. It's marketing your tool, and it would be horrible for you if you took most of your time and resources building the tool, but it doesn't get the attention of the community. Plus TradingView already has alerts based on signals from technical indicators.

I believe you should start with something simpler, and first build a Telegram bot for alerts to build a following for your projects in the future.
1445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will we get the fed pivot right now? on: March 14, 2023, 01:50:22 PM
Choas across all the markets. Silicon Valley bank has collapsed in a manner of hours due to a bank run caused by the fed hikes. Right now there are half a dozen banks with double digit losses trading like low cap alt-coins. The worse of this is Charles Schwab. And I think the fed will finally step in to protect it.

The fed doesn't care about Silvergate or Silicon Valley but Schwab is pretty big. I think any day now we will get the pivot and all markets will rally which are considered risk-on. Sure inflation is bad but I don't think the fed wants a major bank collapsing sending shockwaves across the entire financial system.

If the fed pivots then Crypto and stocks should rally. The hint is in the bond markets. Currently they are rallying like crazy.


I don't believe that you have done the proper research to say such a thing. Because if the Federal Reserve pivots now, without contolling and bring inflation down, what will definitely happen is MORE inflation, going into the direction of hyperinflation. The whole economy would go into a recession, THEN a depression.

The recession is UNPREVENTABLE. The Federal Reserve MUST cause a recession through tightening, and through rate hikes, to get money out of the system, to lower demand, and THAT will bring inflation down. If the Federal Reserve doesn't do enough tightening/rate hikes then inflation will stay and it will do the job for the Federal Reserve = cause a recession. If the Federal Reserve pivots, and cuts or pauses interest rate hikes, then inflation will surge. What would the Federal Reserve do if inflation surges again? More aggressive tightening/rate hikes or nothing = both go to recession.
1446  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: March 14, 2023, 09:37:45 AM
I believe proposals for another soft fork would open a new debate/drama within the community, which will make us split/divide further again. One group will be Ordinals users/supporters and most of the miners/mining-pools, the other group will be Bitcoin purists and probably most of the Core developers.
A fork is a bad idea because it would prevent future extensions to Taproot (witness version 1) which is the reason why this mess was allowed in first place. Not to mention that forks take a very long time to reach consenesus.

As I've said many times the correct solution should have been using standard rules to prevent this type of spam like what we have been doing all these years!
You see Ordinals attack could have happened before Taproot too but it was successfully prevented by standard rules. But after Taproot for some unknown reason the devs decided to not add any standard rules when verifying Taproot scripts (eg. a DISCOURAGE_BIG_SCRIPTS flag) and we are seeing this unwanted attack vector...


Plus it's not only about going through another controversial soft fork/hard fork, it's d5000's proposal of making a new fee structure itself! He is proposing to make a crapshoot with the part of the network that's making everything stick together. I'm stupid when it comes to programming/technical matters, but I know that's not the solution.
1447  Economy / Economics / Re: Benefit from Higher Education? on: March 14, 2023, 06:55:04 AM
I wonder if higher education will help for entrepreneurship?

I am more interested in how much theory will help in this, because during a long study we do not get practice, this will be possible only when we start doing business, until that moment we will not be able to know how much it will help us.


Theory "may help", but many of the most successful entrepreneurs learned through trial-and-error. The entrepreneurs who got lucky in their first try without solving hard problems, because they merely followed what was taught to them in school/university, I'll call them lucky and say that they can't do the same success if they started another business.

Quote

This can help us if we need a license, but in some cases it can be obtained without a higher education.


No, ANYONE can get a license.

Quote

Statistically, 95% of entrepreneurs have a bachelor's degree or higher and I wonder, for those of you who are involved in entrepreneurship, how useful was higher education for you?


Can you post the link/source?

Plus I believe that statistic doesn't show the details. How many of them are actual successful entrepreneurs? How many of them took an actual entrepreneur course? Because a person studying to be a doctor could also be an entrepreneur.

It merely shows that there are currently too many people who have college degrees. It's laughable that today, you need to have a degree for a clerk job, or an low-level office job. The world today thinks Higher Education Diploma = Competence.
1448  Economy / Economics / Re: "Surprisingly, Tail Emission Is Not Inflationary" -- A post by Peter Todd on: March 14, 2023, 06:33:48 AM
Shower thought. What if, instead of a Tail Emission or expanding Bitcoin's coin supply, Ordinals and the demand for block-space it brings would be the answer to the question, "Will the fees be enough to support the miners when all the coins have been mined"?

I'm NOT debating whether Ordinals is good for Bitcoin. I'm merely looking at the possibility that Ordinals might make Bitcoin a better network for what Ethereum is already doing if doing them in Bitcoin will make it cheaper, and if the Bitcoin blockchain is more reliable for them.
1449  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Retracement will finally happen on: March 13, 2023, 11:19:49 AM
We are currently experiencing red days in these past days but is it good or bad? As you can see in the weekly time frame below, the price is nowo in the major support where it is considered as buyer side. Which only means that there is a high possibility that the price will bounce in this area. If the price bounce in this area then the movement of the bitcoin is very healthy and we can a upward movement in the following days if this happen. Right now, I'm planning to entry to get as much as position in the major support for me to not be miss out.

Happy trading and Goodluck

Mini Update March 13, 2023

Does my prediction is correct again? take time to read my past updates on my analysis regarding the price and the movement of the bitcoin. I said that it is considered as healthy move that the price retrace on the level of $20,000. I also mention that I'll get as much as position becauseu the price is currently at the major support. Luckily, I followed my plan and I have big positions in a lot of coins and I'm currently 30% up in my total portfolio.

A lot of people got scared because of the retracement of the bitcoin, it only shows that they do not fully understand the psychology and market sentiment. As for my next prediction, the price of the bitcoin will consolidate and eventually break the $25,000. Take note that it is really good time to acquire positions in the consolidation level so guys good luck and happy trading again! If you want to make money then consider my analysis but also make sure to have good risk management and solid plan.

The current weekly chart as of now:


The current daily chart as of now:



When, do you predict, will that eventuality for Bitcoin to break $25,000? Will it be in two or three months? Because for me, while it's possible that your prediction will happen in two or three months, I believe Bitcoin might go touch $16,000 again because of bearish macro-economic conditions around the world. BUT if we zoom out to the maximum, it's an easy prediction that eventually, Bitcoin will surge over $25,000. Especially a few months before the halving.
1450  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Biden on Brink of 2nd US Bank Bailout on: March 13, 2023, 07:57:07 AM

The title sounds all too familiar, doesnt it? We are seeing this in real time and its pretty wild! This is one of the main reasons that Bitcoin was created, to create an alternative to the fiat trash money. Tomorrow morning President Biden will speak on the 2 bank collapses that happed in the past week, and of course he is going to follow in Janet Yellens footsteps assuring that the US Government will bail the failed banks out and that all the depositors money is safe, but with what money? The printers are running nonstop, they have to be. The US defaulted on their debt recently, I mean all the conditions are not looking great for USD.


If you're suggesting that the Federal Reserve will pivot to expansion of their balance sheet, reverse to QE, and turning on the printers, then I believe not. Inflation is still high in the U.S. A pivot now would bring it up further, then what will do? Tighten more and raise interest rates higher, and more aggressively to bring inflation down.

Quote

Are we seeing the beginning of the domino affect on US AND ALL GLOBAL BANKS?! Is the USD going to finally collapse? I don't think just yet, the FED is going to pull some strings to delay yet again but how much longer can they hold up the inevitable?


It might take longer than expected, and the replacement might be a CBDC. A reset of the U.S. Dollar.
1451  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Which best for long term investment? Hardware wallet or Software wallet . on: March 13, 2023, 07:45:45 AM
Plus it's not really "paranoid". That method of using fake I.D. and opening a P.O. Box is actually a standard safety measure used to buy "something else" from the internet.
It is paranoid and super expensive doing all this just for one hardware wallet, I am not talking if you are dealing drugs, selling alcohol or nuclear fuel all the time, so you need to have this.
But go ahead and keep recommending people to buy fake ID (aka commit crime) because that is ''standard safety measure'' in your world Cheesy
What I proposed is 100 times more simpler, cheaper and safer, plus you don't have to commit any crime along the way.


To give you context, another poster brought up a concern that the biggest problem in purchasing a hardware wallet is privacy-related, because you have to give up your home address, real name and probably other information. I merely suggested a way in how a person can buy one without giving up any real information about himself/herself. You don't have to be angry and nitpicky about it.
1452  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 13, 2023, 05:33:23 AM
Quote
We need every bit of value we can extract, you will have very hard time finding a miner who would mind getting paid more be it the result of spam or NFTs.
That doesn't mean we should indulge miners.
Who's "we"?

I'm sorry that I'm responding without reading the last page with devotion, but it's just frustrating observing established experts going against the Bitcoin spirit without noticing. There is no "we" in transactions. I don't expect the majority of you to approve my transaction from an ethic standard when I make it. Nor do I expect you to feel I have circumvented your space. I don't even expect you'll attend to talk about it. The only thing I expect is that it will be done in 10 minutes.

You know you can't have both the most freedom preserving currency in the world and simultaneously dictate miners how to do their business or which transactions pass the collective approval.


Whether we like Ordinals, or not, there's nothing the community can do, except debate and express their own opinions. In theory there's something we can do = another soft fork, but practically speaking I believe, after Taproot - which brought us a development of using the blobspace for an unintended purpose, there will he no soft forks for a longer amount of time because of a "distrust that it might bring something unintended" again.

1453  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: March 13, 2023, 05:18:51 AM
...
Yep, I more or less agree -- my remark was about the way the "sub-consensus" works in the case of Ordinals and Omni/Counterparty, and it's identic. Both assign "significance" to data which would normally be read as "arbitrary" with the standard Bitcoin tools (which follow only the Bitcoin protocol).

I've thought a bit how the Ordinals problem could be dealt with without censorship or hard forks, but simply using incentive mechanisms and/or possible soft forks. Apart from making ordinal-type taproot scripts non-standard, which could be a "short term" strategy but is a bit of a "hack", I think there could be a more long-term oriented, "cleaner" strategy to provide a clear "incentive framework": creating two new transaction types with even better witness discounts than Segwit-style transactions.

The first type would be for pure financial transactions without OP_RETURN scripts nor any contracts. It would get 4x discount in comparison to today. Maybe even with a privacy mechanism in the style of Monero or Grin.

The second type would be for small data inscriptions with a single OP_RETURN output to up to a few hundreds of bytes, and would get 2x the Segwit-style witness discount. I would prefer 200 bytes instead of 80, or even a bit more, to be able to support at least some of the Ordinal Inscription use cases, without opening to things like JPEGs.

For larger inscriptions, a "data sidechain" could be supported "semi-officially", with a client offering to store inscriptions which are hashed into a small OP_RETURN output, but separately from the main chain. (This could include the "notify and takedown" mechanism I outlined here).

We could allow some more types to be supported by the 2x category, like popular contract types (multisig, atomic swaps/Lightning HTLCs and channel openings etc.). There could be a mechanism similar to "standardness" to enable them for that category.

We would then have a new "minimum fee level" 4 times lower than now, so - always having the current "fee market" in mind - the fee level for the current categories would be moving two "steps" higher for the current transaction types:

- standard non-segwit transactions: paying 8x the new minimum fee
- standard segwit transactions with full contracts, including Ordinals: paying 4x the minimum fee
- new "small data" / limited contract transactions: paying 2x the minimum fee
- simple financial transactions: paying 1x the minimum fee

Ordinals Inscriptions would then, on average, pay approximately 4 times the fees they pay now (with similar network congestion).

This is just a very general idea, which should (from my understanding, please correct if not) be achievable with a soft fork. The advantage is: we would not rule out new contracts and innovation in that field, but make it up to 4x more expensive until it is accepted generally.


I believe proposals for another soft fork would open a new debate/drama within the community, which will make us split/divide further again. One group will be Ordinals users/supporters and most of the miners/mining-pools, the other group will be Bitcoin purists and probably most of the Core developers.

Core developers who might reject Ordinals will probably be Adam Back, Gregory Maxwell and Luke DashJr.
1454  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: On Ordinals: Where do you stand? on: March 10, 2023, 02:30:11 PM
caseys RULES are not locked to hard data
its just code he wrote which he can change
nutildah loves it and thinks its a real NFT that has value and is trying his hardest to say it is real with his silly
"read casey, look at casey, trust casey" crap

I hate to agree with franky but he is right. There are people in this topic and elsewhere that for different reasons refuse to acknowledge the scam nature of this whole thing. Ordinals is not part of or enforced by bitcoin consensus rules or any other consensus rules, it is basically an illusion created and controlled by a centralized authority and is sold to people who are unknowingly attacking bitcoin.


Are you talking about how "Ordinals" are making Satoshi No. "XXXXXX" = Level "X" in Rarity? I would have to agree with franky1 too if it's that. It's not real, it's merely a made up concept, although I would have to also admit that it's remarkable.
1455  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 10, 2023, 02:18:10 PM
Trending crypto market investing in Bitcoin can make some profit. And if you can get a good idea then definitely buy and hold Bitcoin. Buy bitcoins when the bitcoin market goes down and sell when the price goes up if you want to sell later. And thus you can become a successful trader in the future.

There is no need to have a good idea if someone already believes and believes in Bitcoin, so he can immediately apply Buy the DIP, and HODL to Bitcoin and never think about when to sell it even though when he sells it later it will also determine what the price will be at that time. Sometimes the buyers in the market are not all traders, because there are also those who just buy and then hold it for a time limit that they did not specify at that time. Although the goal of investing in Bitcoin in the long term is to make a profit.


My suggestion/advice in how to make it easier to make it HARD for yourself from compulsive-selling your Bitcoin because of fear and panic is, HODL YOU BITCOINS IN COLD STORAGE, not hardware wallet, ACTUAL COLD STORAGE using an offline computer. That has saved me many times from "the temptation" because of the extra process of signing, copy and pasting, plugging a USB from the online computer, to the offline computer, back to the online computer.

 Cool
1456  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Which best for long term investment? Hardware wallet or Software wallet . on: March 10, 2023, 11:51:37 AM
For people who truly want a hardware wallet without giving up real identity, go to the Dark Markets that sell fake I.D. for Bitcoin. Use fake I.D. to open a P.O. Box in your local post office, use the same fake I.D. to buy your hardware wallet from manufacturer's website.

Why would you go through all this hoops of buying fake ID and paying extra for that and PO box when you can probably find perfectly good hardware wallet in your local area or country?

There are official resellers and it would probably be cheaper to go with low cost flight and buy wallet directly in some other country if it's not available in your own.

Paranoid people can always make their own DIY signing devices, from regular devices like RaspberryPi Zero and similar devices.


I was merely posting a work around for those who truly don't want to give up their I.D. to a centralized database controlled by a third party in buying a hardware wallet, ser. If anyone can buy one over the counter using CASH, then that would be the most ideal way to buy one.

Plus it's not really "paranoid". That method of using fake I.D. and opening a P.O. Box is actually a standard safety measure used to buy "something else" from the internet.
1457  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: worried about downloading blockchain... on: March 10, 2023, 11:39:22 AM
--snip--

Ordinals by itself cannot generate anything. It requires human intervention to put arbitrary data into Bitcoin blockchain using Ordinals protocol.
I never said Ordinals is "evil/bad", I merely said in other topics that it could be used as an attack vector to disrupt/congest the network. It's a remarkable "hack" from a technical viewpoint, but dangerous. Plus I never said Casey Rodarmor is also evil/bad for discovering a feature in software that could be used than what it was built for, but if the network was brought down because of something developed from Ordinals I'm merely saying, we will remember the name Casey Rodarmor.

My previous reply only mention technical inaccuracy though. I didn't assume/accuse you said something "bad" about Ordinal/Casey Rodarmor.


Of course, and OK, I will go with the thinking that "Ordinals itself is not the problem" - because I AGREE/I have debated for it, and "it requires human invervention to put arbitrary data into the Bitcoin blockchain", then if the "human intervention" comes through the State-Attackers themselves, and with a plan on which mining-pools/miners to target then obviously Ordinals has made it easier to target participants of the network. Perhaps exchanges could be another possible target? Full nodes that matter.
1458  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: worried about downloading blockchain... on: March 09, 2023, 12:40:41 PM
--snip--
That's not the point, and running a node in a "least hostile country" isn't really the technical solution. The point is, is it another attack vector that State-Attackers could/would use to stop Bitcoin? Because obviously it is.

I get your point. But just like pirating, usually it'll turn into cat and mouse problem where government only reduce total hashrate and occasionally temporary disrupt it's service. Besides if that happens on many country, i expect P2Pool could be revived.

Ordinals is just starting to be an issue, and if it generates something that will bring Bitcoin down, the name that that will be remembered is Casey Roarmor. It will be unfair to him, because the "feature" found in Taproot would have been found by any other developer, sooner or later.

Ordinals by itself cannot generate anything. It requires human intervention to put arbitrary data into Bitcoin blockchain using Ordinals protocol.


I never said Ordinals is "evil/bad", I merely said in other topics that it could be used as an attack vector to disrupt/congest the network. It's a remarkable "hack" from a technical viewpoint, but dangerous. Plus I never said Casey Rodarmor is also evil/bad for discovering a feature in software that could be used than what it was built for, but if the network was brought down because of something developed from Ordinals I'm merely saying, we will remember the name Casey Rodarmor.
1459  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Which best for long term investment? Hardware wallet or Software wallet . on: March 09, 2023, 09:54:20 AM
Probably the question we should be asking is: where is the safest place to buy hardware wallets?

Somewhere where the number of second-hands (which are always risky) are kept to a minimum or not present at all, and where you don't have to give out your personal information when you place an order, and ideally one which lets you buy them in bitcoins. So not (most) manufacturers' websites.


For people who truly want a hardware wallet without giving up real identity, go to the Dark Markets that sell fake I.D. for Bitcoin. Use fake I.D. to open a P.O. Box in your local post office, use the same fake I.D. to buy your hardware wallet from manufacturer's website.

 Cool

OP, it's always more secure to own a Hardware Wallet, but for how much coins you currently own, just keep saving and buying Bitcoin until you can comfortably spend for a Hardware Wallet. Plus you can always use an old computer for cold storage, and that would be as safe/secure as a Hardware Wallet.

 Cool

Even though the hardware is the most secure option but sometimes even the software wallet can be used if the funds are now too much. I mean why need cold storage if you can just know how to properly secure your wallet? I am using a desktop wallet and have never been the victim of any hack or something.

You do not download random software, you do not click on the random link, a good anti virus software is installed on your computer, and you do not give your keys to anyone then you are good to go even with the desktop wallet (In case of fewer funds only).


OK, good for you.
1460  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 09, 2023, 09:35:05 AM
These are arbitrary data that is pushed to the blockchain once to stay there forever, pointlessly increasing the chain size.

As opposed to arbitrary payment data that is pushed to the blockchain once to stay there forever?
Like all those silly satoshidice bets? Or the transfers of the NFTs? Or all the "test" transactions that people do to feel more secure about the "real" transaction?

In the end nobody can decide what is arbitrary or not. Only fees can. The higher the fees, the higher the barrier for frivolous use, and thus the less arbitrary.

Users will always find a way to relay their txs to miners more than willing to earn those higher fees.
There's nothing you can do to stop that, only try to make it a little less convenient by imposing standard-ness rules. But with high enough fees, there will always be middleman like ordinals.com to make that process as convenient as can be.

If you want less "arbitrary" data, allow all uses of the blockchain to compete and the fees to be raised. Which has to happen anyway if bitcoin is to maintain any long term security.


But don't you believe that no "arbitrary data", whatever they may be, should be the same? Because once Ordinals become very VERY popular, and once many of those "creators" of shitNFTs are done, and leave their projects, the Bitcoin blockchain will become a garbage dump for "dick pics and fart sounds", and all other shitNFTs, making IDB harder and harder.
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