rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[coinits]

My new math:

Bullets + Bread + Bullion + Shelter + Crypto + (Cooperatives * Trust) = Security

You do not comprehend what you asking for.

You are exactly the people I don't want to be any where near when the USA heads into the abyss after 2016. This is why the USA will go into extreme chaos. There is an extreme right and an extreme left, and no rationality in between.

Either do I. That is why I left. And it won't just be the USA. It will be global.
And what is wrong with my type of people?

I fully comprehend.

[iamback]

And what is wrong with my type of people?

Warlordism sucks. That is where you are headed with the attitude that every man can be his own island.

I actually believe in society even though I have a strong isolationist (or independence) leaning. I believe in trade and interaction, while respecting independence and individual property.

Edit: rural cooperatives might work (e.g. the Amish if the rest of society respects their right to do that and the cooperatives don't fracture due to competition, game theory, and disagreement over culture, influence, etc.) but it is more likely they will overrun (significantly disrupted) by those who are more ruthlessly violent. Don't forget that society is a power vacuum, and Max Weber's defintion of the State applies. Problem is that such small scale, low efficiency paradigms can't compete. Water flows downhill not uphill; society yearns for prosperity not going back to the 1700s.

[iamback]

it needs to have a popular use case that can't be done with the fiat banking and financial system.

My favorite use case is international sales. There is no existing fast, cheap, secure method of selling goods to international customers.

Agreed[1] but afaics that is not virally popular. And it doesn't drive adoption of anonymity, which we also need if we are to escape the deflationary abyss of the Western world expropriating all capital to the deathstar socialism.

Note I do not agree that a huge market for Bitcoin is the unbanked in the sense that they can get a bank account now if they need one. However that could be a huge untapped market if there were "instant-signup" nefarious activities where the currently unbanked could earn a lot of money without needing to hassle with the paperwork for obtaining a bank account. The point being that the only way someone in the third world needs a bank account is if they have gone through the rigmarole of obtaining a middle class job in the first place (i.e. it is a long process of adhering to paperwork and complying with the rigmarole of university, etc).

In other words, the globalist elite have their strategy well mapped out. The developing world populations believe in playing by the rules (nation building, go to university, go work for a corporation, be a good slave). They are observing that is the way to advance. We would have to offer them an alternative that is more attractive, e.g. more expedient. The Westerners are deluded either on collectivism (feminism, socialism, political correctness, idealistic collectivistic slavery such a net neutrality, etc) or deluded to the far right (each man for himself, hard money, hard discipline, let the fuckers eat cake).

We need a leader to show us the path to a more expedient rational synergy for society that can pull us away from our extreme delusions.

...

Most of the world does not have access to bank accounts and Bitcoin wont work for them. It has too many problems and is too complex.

I am so tired of hearing this nonsense. I have refuted it many times. I live in the 3rd world. The people who need to have a bank account, get one. The rest have no need for a bank account and that is why they don't have one. My neighbors work online for USA companies via odesk.com and they have bank accounts. The poor, uneducated I encounter do not have any use for a bank account. I helped a lady who works 12 hours a day, 6 days per week in a factory to open a bank account with MasterCard debit ATM card, but she has never used for it. She is paid in cash and spends it locally for daily needs.

Imagining market demand that doesn't exist won't help you.

If we cut through all the bullshit and nonsense, we can distill down to an actual viable marketing plan that doesn't revolve around implementing everything including the kitchen sink before release.

[1]

Example mentioned at the linked Foreign Affairs article: This is the Council on Foreign Relations publication. It generally predicts five to twenty years out institutional changes and what is on the horizon before it happens. The topics addressed are issues of concern to the CFR and not necessarily reflect official position or consensus among the elite, but . http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143162/paul-vigna-and-michael-j-casey/bitcoin-for-the-unbanked There is a clear split. The central banks dont like Bitcoin, the tax authorities are neutral because it is so heavily centralized on Coinbase and Bitpay that it can be taxed automatically. The income is "matchable" if it goes through bitpay/coinbase. The upper tiers support Bitcoin and vaguely hope it may be able to reign in the FED or generally believe it will promote justice in the world. They see banks seizing houses they dont own and selling them without even pretense. They understand the FED and financial sector group is too powerful to be restrained by law... There is a sincere intention that technologies like Bitcoin may get the poor or anyone with a cell phone onto the global financial system. There is a split between the interests... Bitcoin is really a war of the 1% against the 0.00001%. I wrote my response to your post before you wrote your post: Also don't assume TPTB are against Bitcoin. I think they love it. The overriding globalists want to destroy the existing monetary system and replace it with a global control. A global non-anonymous ledger is a coup for them.

[iamback]

Summary of my prior post: The developing world shares one major economic dilemma with the Western world—the fat cats at the top are running the show. Thus any activity that increases individual economic freedom is nefarious from their (the politically correct, mainstream, "legal"[1]) perspective.

(note I edited my prior post)

[1]	You Commit Three Felonies Per Day

[iamback]

Cross-posting... (will try to make it my last in this thread for another long hiatus because actions need to follow words)

P.S. In many countries only the actual owner of a property can even get a utility bill. So this essentially creates a landowner/serf system

Good point. We are sliding into a hierarchical top-down hell.

[jl777]

Cross-posting... (will try to make it my last in this thread for another long hiatus because actions need to follow words)

P.S. In many countries only the actual owner of a property can even get a utility bill. So this essentially creates a landowner/serf system

Good point. We are sliding have slid into a hierarchical top-down hell.

fixed it for you

[Erdogan]

All derivatives are a scam. When they crash, and they will, they will bring the global economy to its knees unlike anything we have ever seen.

I do understand your point that we wish everyone would own and use crypto-currency, because that is how we hope to change the banking, financial, and political system. But we need to accomplish that by making crypto-currency popular, not by sticking our head in the sand and declaring that modern civilization should not exist (which is what you are asserting when you conflate derivatives with our current top-down cancer). We actually need derivatives in order to make crypto-currency viable and adopted by business.

Derivatives are extremely necessary and helpful:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=966977.msg10577980#msg10577980 (read my thread)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/24/europe-outlawing-short-selling-and-there-goes-britain/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/29/derivatives-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/06/gold-backwardation-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/24/gold-perpetual-propaganda/



You are conflating corruption and top-down financial and political system with derivatives. Yes there are $trillions in derivatives that will blow up in the coming contagion, but not because derivatives are bad, but because Taleb's anti-fragility math is correct:

...

I am vaguely familiar with Taleb's math on modeling systemic responses to long tail events:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Knowledge_Anneals

Top-down systems are inherently fragile because they overcommit to egregious error (link to Taleb's simplest summary of the math).

...

They are evil incarnate. They are like paper heroin manufactured by the Global-Fascist Cartel and gobbled up by dumbed-down eager investors who listen to the broker or go at it solo as day traders.

Yes the whole shit shoe is a scam. Debt-based fiat is another flavor of the same paper heroin made by the same scum.

We, as a species, are being attacked on many fronts 24-7. Once one awakens to this evil and sees the world in all of its gory nakedness one reaches a point where information overload starts making one ignore a lot of 'news'. It is nothing but spoon-fed pablum of the same evil. It is called Television Programming for a reason.

You are far off. It is basically trading of risk, similar to taking out an insurance. If the risk taker has the brains to calculate the possible outcomes and assign the proper risks to each, has the stomach and the equity, it is prudent.

[coinits]

All derivatives are a scam. When they crash, and they will, they will bring the global economy to its knees unlike anything we have ever seen.

I do understand your point that we wish everyone would own and use crypto-currency, because that is how we hope to change the banking, financial, and political system. But we need to accomplish that by making crypto-currency popular, not by sticking our head in the sand and declaring that modern civilization should not exist (which is what you are asserting when you conflate derivatives with our current top-down cancer). We actually need derivatives in order to make crypto-currency viable and adopted by business.

Derivatives are extremely necessary and helpful:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=966977.msg10577980#msg10577980 (read my thread)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/24/europe-outlawing-short-selling-and-there-goes-britain/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/29/derivatives-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/06/gold-backwardation-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/24/gold-perpetual-propaganda/



You are conflating corruption and top-down financial and political system with derivatives. Yes there are $trillions in derivatives that will blow up in the coming contagion, but not because derivatives are bad, but because Taleb's anti-fragility math is correct:

...

I am vaguely familiar with Taleb's math on modeling systemic responses to long tail events:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Knowledge_Anneals

Top-down systems are inherently fragile because they overcommit to egregious error (link to Taleb's simplest summary of the math).

...

They are evil incarnate. They are like paper heroin manufactured by the Global-Fascist Cartel and gobbled up by dumbed-down eager investors who listen to the broker or go at it solo as day traders.

Yes the whole shit shoe is a scam. Debt-based fiat is another flavor of the same paper heroin made by the same scum.

We, as a species, are being attacked on many fronts 24-7. Once one awakens to this evil and sees the world in all of its gory nakedness one reaches a point where information overload starts making one ignore a lot of 'news'. It is nothing but spoon-fed pablum of the same evil. It is called Television Programming for a reason.

You are far off. It is basically trading of risk, similar to taking out an insurance. If the risk taker has the brains to calculate the possible outcomes and assign the proper risks to each, has the stomach and the equity, it is prudent.

We will agree to disagree.

[Erdogan]

All derivatives are a scam. When they crash, and they will, they will bring the global economy to its knees unlike anything we have ever seen.

I do understand your point that we wish everyone would own and use crypto-currency, because that is how we hope to change the banking, financial, and political system. But we need to accomplish that by making crypto-currency popular, not by sticking our head in the sand and declaring that modern civilization should not exist (which is what you are asserting when you conflate derivatives with our current top-down cancer). We actually need derivatives in order to make crypto-currency viable and adopted by business.

Derivatives are extremely necessary and helpful:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=966977.msg10577980#msg10577980 (read my thread)
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/24/europe-outlawing-short-selling-and-there-goes-britain/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/29/derivatives-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/06/gold-backwardation-the-real-story/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/24/gold-perpetual-propaganda/



You are conflating corruption and top-down financial and political system with derivatives. Yes there are $trillions in derivatives that will blow up in the coming contagion, but not because derivatives are bad, but because Taleb's anti-fragility math is correct:

...

I am vaguely familiar with Taleb's math on modeling systemic responses to long tail events:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Knowledge_Anneals

Top-down systems are inherently fragile because they overcommit to egregious error (link to Taleb's simplest summary of the math).

...

They are evil incarnate. They are like paper heroin manufactured by the Global-Fascist Cartel and gobbled up by dumbed-down eager investors who listen to the broker or go at it solo as day traders.

Yes the whole shit shoe is a scam. Debt-based fiat is another flavor of the same paper heroin made by the same scum.

We, as a species, are being attacked on many fronts 24-7. Once one awakens to this evil and sees the world in all of its gory nakedness one reaches a point where information overload starts making one ignore a lot of 'news'. It is nothing but spoon-fed pablum of the same evil. It is called Television Programming for a reason.

You are far off. It is basically trading of risk, similar to taking out an insurance. If the risk taker has the brains to calculate the possible outcomes and assign the proper risks to each, has the stomach and the equity, it is prudent.

We will agree to disagree.

Unlike Varoufakis sometimes, I can agree to that.

[iamback]

Apologies if I killed everyone's jovial mood. Any way, I come back to cross-post some relevant discussion on the timing (which applies to Bitcoin price discussion in this thread).

...Take this recent interview by Allen Greenspan.

QE lowering the real rate of interest "has been responsible for the rise in P/E multiples... when rates normalize, that will reverse"

Armstrong has refuted that with historical examples where stocks rise when interest rates rise in the similar circumstances. Greenspan is not factoring in international capital flows, and the dollar and USA will be the only safe haven still standing in 2016 because Europe will collapse roughly 18 months before the USA will[1], and thus we will get a huge bubble in the US stocks peaking in 2017 some where near 40,000 for the Dow (DJIA).

Greenspan will end up being correct after 2017, when international capital flows into the USA peak and turn. Where do the capital flows go after 2017? Gold, cryptocurrencies, and much of wiped out by sovereign defaults and expropriation. In short, chaos, war, and scorched earth.

[1]

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/04/us-v-europe-divergence/ http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/06/the-euro-destined-for-80-cents/ http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/06/the-euro-a-doomed-currency/ http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/06/ecb-insanity-imf-tardiness-tearing-europe-apart-yet-they-r-2-stupid-to-understand-it/

If a crisis happens as he predicts in Semptember-October of 2015 (which I believe is very possible) I will attach even more weight to his predictions.  

Among other notable events for the end of September 2015, are:

1. In one of those audio discussions with WA D.C. insider Hugh Downs, Hugh reminded Armstrong that the funding bill for the US government expires near that 2015.75 turn date.

2. The extension of the funding for Greece expires near that 2015.75 turn date.


What I am expecting based on Armstrong's writings is that October 2015 is when confidence in Europe's sovereign bonds starts to collapse and Draghi's QE no longer is effective in maintaining investor confidence. When investors stop believing that the core of Europe is a safe haven, they will stampede to the dollar. This process is underway on the periphery but the German DAX is still rising (which Armstrong expects to reach a bubble peak and crash on 2015.75) and German bonds are still falling (as well other core European nation sovereign bonds such as the Netherlands). October 2015 is when the lights go out on the core of Europe.

This will cause the Fed in the USA to begin to raise interest rates to counter what it sees as a huge bubble (and the opportunity to unwind the Fed's bloated QE balance sheet). This will cause the influx of the safe haven capital into the dollar to further accelerate. But this will also be killing the USA economy because USA exports will be overpriced and consumers+homeowners will be getting killed on the rising interest rates.

So then the economy will become very bad in the USA in 2016 in spite of the rising dollar and US stocks. Then in 2017, we go F.U.B.A.R. scorched earth.

I place 95% odds on this timing and outcome.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/25/so-what-was-the-ecm-september-2014-turning-point/

So What Was the ECM September 2014 Turning Point?

The 2014.675 turning point in the Economic Confidence Model seems to have pinpoint the shift in capital flows. The US dollar is rising and this may yet move into a serious rally that will have the politicians in turmoil have some even talking about protectionism again since morons never learn a lesson. You have to understand that a rally in the dollar is NECESSARY to turn down the economy for 2016-2020. The US economy is the ONLY thing hold up the entire world economy as it stands right now. Economic growth is becoming extinct in Europe, Russia, China, Japan, the Bricks, you name it. Let the first shot be fired between China and Japan and watch how much dollar buying its in a single day.

When most everyone says it is dead, only a few diehards remain, that will be the bottom in the price and we will rise again from there.

It is a positive sign that some people are starting to think it is dead. Unfortunately there are still too many idealistic fanboys who think it is not dead (they provide the wrong reasons for justification, e.g. decentralized consensus is a joke and a lie) and they need to lose their money first buying BTC at these nosebleed levels.

Bitcoin will never die, it was declared dead more times than George Bush was called stupid.
You need to differentiate bitcoin, and bitcoin price, because you obviously got confused between the two, but regardless, i can assure you that both of the two are live and ticking,
and will continue to do so for a long, long time (..and they made bitcoin transactions happily ever after- That long)

cheers

This is it above, how many times has bitcoin been declared dead on this forum...

Both of you need to learn how to read. I did not write that Bitcoin is dead. In fact, I wrote that it will bottom when most idealistic fanboys think it is dead. Then it will rise with new focus that is more realistic. Again the decentralized consensus idealism is not true. The OP explained for example that mining is not decentralized.

When most everyone says it is dead, only a few diehards remain, that will be the bottom in the price and we will rise again from there.

It is a positive sign that some people are starting to think it is dead. Unfortunately there are still too many idealistic fanboys who think it is not dead (they provide the wrong reasons for justification, e.g. decentralized consensus is a joke and a lie) and they need to lose their money first buying BTC at these nosebleed levels.

So your theory is that after very few people are left using/hoarding bitcoin, suddenly bitcoin will become relevant again?

The timing of the old false idealism dying and some new realism taking form seem to be roughly aligned for no particular reason other than they are. It's just time.

Well actually there is a reason they are aligned. And you refer to the links I posted in my first post in this thread. And to this one as well:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10687107#msg10687107

As for the technical and market adoption realism coming to Bitcoin, please refer to one of those prior links I provided wherein I stated that the only two markets for Bitcoin are "speculation" and "nefarious" activities. I provided a detailed explanation there.

[sidhujag]

Timing should line up with noobs buying into stock and usd craze... That should be the turning pount... Ill watch out for someone on my engineering team ssying hey i just xfered half my cash to usd cause im so smart.. Thats the signal.

[0x3d]

No more quality TA around here? Risto gone underground?

[aminorex]

Monkey is mysterious but definitely does quality TA.  Likes BTC to 266 (soft resistance) and 272 (harder) on a daily basis.

[rpietila]

No more quality TA around here? Risto gone underground?

Newbie tip: go to "PROFILE" -> "Show Posts", you will see when a member has last posted. Always happy to help!

[0x3d]

No more quality TA around here? Risto gone underground?

Newbie tip: go to "PROFILE" -> "Show Posts", you will see when a member has last posted. Always happy to help!

I was more like referring to your recent obsession with alts. Kinda sad to see this thread fizzle out like this but I guess right now any kind of TA on BTC can't be labeled "quality" with too much certainty.

My chart-less guess: we're going to stay in the bubble-encompassing falling wedge down to the 190s until around mid-end May then hopefully CCMF once again!

Oh, and Legendary Donator tip: go to "PROFILE" -> "Show general statistics", you will see that although I have only a tiny fraction of your post-count "Total time spent online" is almost half of yours. Always lazy to write!

[rpietila]

As is says in the Forum rules + repeated many times, trolls get a permaban on the thread. So if I delete your post because of trolling, it means that do not post again, or the moderators may, if they have time, ban you from the forum as well. Thank you for cooperation.

[0x3d]

As is says in the Forum rules + repeated many times, trolls get a permaban on the thread. So if I delete your post because of trolling, it means that do not post again, or the moderators may, if they have time, ban you from the forum as well. Thank you for cooperation.

Right, perfect method to revive this thread (or shoud I say threat) of yours. Face it, trolls will be trolls. A calm, eventless ignore achieves much more than censoring and complaining in most subjects. Also, too much policing yielded 7 mostly off-topic posts (like this one) in about 4 weeks. That be your definition of kwuolitee?

Otherwise this forum really needs some way to indicate deleted posts (maybe in a way similar to the ignore function) or later readers will have to guess references out of thin air.

On topic/avoiding censorship Some quite weak movements north lately. Unless we breach 270-275 on volume pretty soon I maintain my position: down to 190 within the next few weeks.

[rpietila]

On topic. I have abstained from wine for 4 weeks at least, but plan to start again soon as I have time. Cigar quality has also deteriorated, today's one was a dry Cusano, with no much enjoyment. Shisha is more to my liking these days.

I have given up following BTC price, because of no trading since a year ago, and no plans to trade until the price is about $4,000 and counting. Since my whole investment paradigm is one of extreme risk aversion, I don't invest in paper vehicles at all and hold exactly the same portfolio of assets as I did a year ago, with the exception of some purchasing of XMR, which is the only altcoin I have ever purchased.

XMR price I follow occasionally, but it is not a biggie, since - like BTC - I would only consider selling at a significantly higher price than what I bought (it is still at a lower price). My BTC sales were at 200x the buy price, so it is not likely that I would sell XMR at any less of a gain. Luckily the financial situation of the family is solid so there is no need to sell, and unluckily the world economy is fragile so there is nothing to buy.

The time is now fully spent on developing the game Crypto Kingdom, which is going to V.4 Reconstruction soon (the first version with an inhouse developed browser gaming engine).

[aminorex]

Also, monkey caved to the market, turned bearish, sees support at 126.

[molecular]

Also, monkey caved to the market, turned bearish, sees support at 126.

I sense a lot of people are finally throwing in the towel, even your monkey.

After fighting the bear for so long, they give up.

This is called 'capitulation'.