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1801  Economy / Gambling / Ready for an audit? If your claim be corroborated, glory awaits you! on: March 04, 2018, 12:54:03 AM
You can stop applying maths to a script which you have not seen. It is impossible to do so. You never know, I might be sitting on some Nobel Prize material.

So, as you ready to take RGBKey up on his offer of an independent audit?

I do seriously think that if your claims be true, then you could be a candidate for a Fields Medal.  (Not a Nobel Prize.  There is no such thing as a Nobel Prize for mathematics.  The Fields Medal is for maths, and is even more elite.  It is given but once every four years.)  History would be made!  Maths textbooks around the world would need to be rewritten!  But you will never get to claim the Fields Medal, plus the money and glory thereto attendant, if you never let others discover your paradigm-shifting work of genius.  For the secrets locked up in a proprietary script, an independent private audit would be a good start.
1802  Economy / Reputation / NEWSFLASH: Lauda admits guilt on substantial essence of all charges! on: March 04, 2018, 12:38:59 AM
That would not explain why lauda has failed to leave negative trust against these accounts.

The only explanation I can give is that these belong to lauda....

Perhaps that may be because you fail to understand the explanation that no intelligent person would bother with repetitious back-and-forth over charges so nonsensical on their face as to be cartoonish.

But put that aside.  Didn’t you see the news?  Lauda has confessed guilt on the substantial essence of all your charges!

Embarrassed Guilty;

Feel better, now?  Is your craving thus satisfied?
1803  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Why are Americans so fat? on: March 04, 2018, 12:18:13 AM
Because the fast food prices are cheaper than the rest of the countries.
Furthermore, in Europe we have the Mediterranean diet that is well-balanced

I do agree that diet is a major component.  Indeed, that was one aspect I liked about the graphic I displayed in OP.

A fast-food diet heavy in carbohydrates and hydrogenated vegetable oils does Americans no good.  Neither does the stereotypical American attitude of self-entitled sloth, indiscipline, and general weakness.

In Europe, there is more than a Mediterranean diet:  All parts of Europe have more traditional diets, each in its own way.  Plus, a European attitude.
1804  Other / Meta / Re: Who the hell is "nullius" the guy is too smart around here :) on: March 04, 2018, 12:00:08 AM
@nullius

Trump or Hillary?

Obama is not up for vote  ;D

Thread split:
On false dichotomies, Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee, and why YOU SHOULD NEVER VOTE!

I wouldn’t want to divert this thread to discussion of somebody unimportant, rather than nobody’s importance.
1805  Other / Politics & Society / Re: On false dichotomies, Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee, and why YOU SHOULD NEVER VOTE! on: March 03, 2018, 11:57:26 PM
An aside about the current POTUS:  Trump clearly wants to remake American society as some modernized version of the 50s.  Thus:  After societies in almost every part of the world (including America) were already rotted to the core.  If you wish to exercise some real conservatism, try a different 50s:  The 1750s, before the era of decay which led to the moral and literal bloodbath of the French Revolution.  I have spoken similarly before:

I like movies that show how society will eventually break down.

Please fix your grammar.  Future tense is incorrect here, as is your usage of the adverb “eventually”.

The post is exactly how I intended it to be worded.  :)

Society cannot continue even another hundred years the way we are now.

I thought it clear, my implication was past-tense.  You are most of a hundred years out of date for the collapse of anything which could be properly called a functioning “society”.  Some might say, more than a hundred years.  The problem is that those living in a post-apocalyptic desert of downfallen, zombie-like anthropoids have already forgotten what it means to be human—what it meant, once upon a time.

By comparison, Roman society was a zombified rotting corpse for four or five centuries before the civil machine built by long-gone forebears ran out of momentum.  I can see how greater technology could have accelerated the ultimate downfall in various ways.

What’s left is to secure yourself, take care of your own, live by honour alone whereas law is meaningless, keep busy with something productive, and try to have some fun.

[...]

My wording was correct because I was making a prediction.  I believe nullius has a more optimistic view of the future than I do.  :)

To the contrary!  You have it backwards.  I wish I had just pushed through the post which comprises the first part above.  I kept having to pause and go add replies to additional posts.  This happens to me all too often.

“Optimism is cowardice.” — Spengler (writing most of a hundred years ago)
1806  Other / Politics & Society / On false dichotomies, Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee, and why YOU SHOULD NEVER VOTE! on: March 03, 2018, 11:56:40 PM
Thread split:

Which makes me think of another theory. The entire crypto space is under attack by Russians with an attempt to get nullius elected president of the US where nullius is really a US citizen.

What’s the probability?  (...that “WANTED” poster did say “politically incorrect”, did it not?)

As for US-USSR being distinct without difference—why yes, I think you’re right.  They’re evil twins.



@nullius

Trump or Hillary?

Obama is not up for vote  ;D

Neither are those two. Election ended 16 months ago, try to keep up.

Well, let’s consider the question in the hypothetical:

So, @criptix, do you mean the corrupt billionaire who once tried to turn some working folks’ homes into a casino parking garage, but now styles himself as a conservative hero of the working class—versus the corrupt millionaire political-Mrs. who drips empathy out of her limousine onto the welfare class who feeds off the working class?

At least, I think that Trump is marginally less likely to destroy the entire world than Hillary would have been.  I suppose that’s important to me.

Anyway, if I were American, I’d take Tweedledum.  No, wait—Tweedledee.  No—  I can’t decide!

I think the correct choice is neither.

Loading image of Tweedledum and Tweedledee...

This is why I say:  Don’t vote.  By voting, you grant your moral and practical political endorsements to a corrupt system:  An ochlocracy manipulated by a plutocracy.  The result is kakocracy:  Rule of the worst.

If you vote, then you are part of the problem.



(Note:  This thread is self-moderated, because I don’t want to inadvertently create yet another spam megathread for idiots trying to bump their post counts.  Illiterate one-liners and other low-quality posts will be deleted with extreme prejudice.  So will posts by both Trumpists, Hillary-drones, all Americans, and anybody who votes.  Hahah, just kidding.  Flame away!)
1807  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Why are Americans so fat? on: March 03, 2018, 11:54:50 PM
Note:  I am aware that not all Americans are fat.  And I do know that as with most negative stereotypes, stereotypes about Americans are a matter of 99% of Americans giving the rest a bad name.

Americans who are neither obese nor insane should feel free to seek sympathy in this thread.  My condolences.
1808  Other / Politics & Society / Why are Americans so fat? on: March 03, 2018, 11:54:09 PM
Seriously.  In both the East and the West, everybody asks this question.

Loading image...

Oh, dear me.  Pardon, I must go AFK to bathe my eyeballs in bleach.

Why!?



(This thread is self-moderated, because I don’t want to inadvertently create yet another spam megathread for idiots trying to bump their post counts.  Illiterate one-liners and other low-quality posts will be deleted with extreme prejudice.  Let’s keep this thread fit and trim.  But here, I will not delete posts I simply disagree with.  Flame away!)
1809  Economy / Gambling / Re: Proving that my gambling script works. on: March 03, 2018, 09:43:19 PM
It is also worth pointing out that 20 runs is statistical noise.

I set up a contigency table, played with the numbers and ran some chi-squared tests on them. I calculated for a p-value of 0.05 (This means that the results we achieve would be achieved by random chance 5% of the time i.e. we are 95% confident the script is working as advertised. This is a common minimum standard required across most fields of scientific.)

Even if the script could completely eliminate the house edge (which it can't), we would need around 6000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05. If the script could half the house edge from 1% to 0.5%, we would need around 23000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05.
5% still doesn't prove a script works: this would lead to the false result that 1 out of 20 gambling scripts is EV+. That can't be right.
It can be a good method to disprove 95% of the gambling scripts, but it doesn't prove that the remaining 5% works. Run the same test again, and another 95% will fail.

(Bold/red added.)

Wait.  What is the controversy here?  Alia already says that the script will lose over time.  Insofar as I can tell, her claim is that it can quasi-magically succeed in its first few runs—most of the time—but will occasionally super-duper fail.

I've maintained throughout that the script has a 90% chance of winning and 10% chance of failure... I don't want to risk 1 BTC on a 10% chance of failure, simple as that. The ROI is currently being proved daily anyway

Back atcha:  If the script wins 90% of the time and has positive ROI over time, then you shouldn’t worry about risking 1 BTC.  ROI, yes?  You’ll make it back, then make more.  Just like your investors.

You really can't read, can you? It is EV-. EV-. That is the opposite of what you said. It brings profit 9/10 times, but even if that one time is a loss, it's a big loss. Over an infinite amount of time the script will make losses, like ALL gambling methods.



Yeah, maybe the maths says I am crazy, but this has worked for me before and I vehemently believe it will continue to work for me
This is how (almost) all gamblers turn their profit into a loss, and then start "chasing losses", which is a great way to lose more money. Do you really think casinos would still exist if if would be possible to consistently beat them?

This intersects with my “fixated gambler” hypothesis as to Alia’s motives, stated on the first page of this thread.  Obsession with discovering a secret way to win is not at all uncommon.  Note:  Historical experience with persons making extraordinary claims does show that such an obsession is not mutually exclusive with dishonesty toward others.  A personal obsession with a winning script may or may not coincide with a scam.  There have been many historical instances of such people who seemed to genuinely believe their own claims on some level, while actively performing what could not have been other than consciously calculated steps to fool others.  The study of such phenomena is fascinating (and does intersect with much historical study of religion, cults, and superstitions generally).


You are absolutely correct, but we can change the p-value to anything we want. 0.05 (i.e. 5%) is a commonly used minimum standard as I said, but we could equally decide to be more rigorous by increasing the number of runs thereby resulting in a smaller p-value.

I am actually one of those people who is critical of how the p < .05 confidence level is oftentimes (usually?) used—just because it’s commonly used.  Of course, the reason stated by LoyceV (1/20 chance of a fluke being far too high) is part of the importance of repeatability of an experiment by independent parties.  Thus, regardless of p-value:

If Alia wants to use “empirical” evidence to override the known laws of mathematics, then the experiment must be repeatable to be scientifically valid.
1810  Other / Meta / Bitcoinum nullius est on: March 03, 2018, 09:20:27 PM

"Hello, everyone. I'm Marina Orlova of Hot for Words. Today's word is nullius, Latin for ..."

Hmmm...

Whoever this guy is, one thing I assume, he was born to be the first "living legend" in this forum. Nulluis means "own by nobody" this is the true meaning of legend, control by nobody.

The “nullius” nym is .onion-layered with meanings.  One for which I long cherished it is the implication that I am of nobody, from nobody, nobody’s.  (On the other side of the Nullian balance, I am nobody:  A pseudonymous ghost in the.nym.zone.)

I deemed this a fitting nym for the Bitcoin world, on grounds that Bitcoinum nullius est:  Bitcoin is nobody’s—“owned by nobody... controlled by nobody”, as livingancient observed.

I happen to like Core, but they are not Bitcoin.  They provide only the necessary prerequisite:  Reliable software which can keep safe the exchange value equivalent of hundreds of billions of dollars in value throughout the Bitcoin ecosystem.  Beyond that, you ought know as well as anybody that code alone can’t solve people problems.

Bitcoin is a sociological phenomenon.  Now we see the latest battle in an ongoing political war.  What fights for Bitcoin is—Bitcoin.  The thing is running headless, just as it’s supposed to do.  Bitcoinum nullius est.  It’s a decentralized social organism which belongs to nobody, with nobody in control.  It derives its value from its nature as such.  It fends off enemies by the power of multitudes who believe in it—and the many who have much to lose—many of whom are otherwise enemies with each other; all of whom agree on only one thing, Bitcoin.  Core (as L. cor) could stop the heart of Bitcoin by caving in, or ceasing technological improvements.  But this is beyond Core, you, me, or anybody else involved.

For Bitcoin owns; it is not owned.  I don’t mean the monetary component, in the sense of people who are owned by their wealth.  I refer to the sociological phenomenon.  Bitcoin owns.  You know what I mean.  Each and all of you know exactly what I mean.

(All emphasis and boldface are as in the original.)


The [CoinNullius] white paper will be release once translated to Kingon then transcribed to Voynishi complete with flowery and nude illustrations.

As not hereto disclosed by me in public:  One of my motives which led to some recent unlucky events was my desire for someone to work with for an erotic Bitcoin art project.

For now, I will leave my intentions a mystery; but girls who have really gone Bitcoin may feel free to contact me if curious.


Which makes me think of another theory. The entire crypto space is under attack by Russians with an attempt to get nullius elected president of the US where nullius is really a US citizen.

What’s the probability?  (...that “WANTED” poster did say “politically incorrect”, did it not?)

As for US-USSR being distinct without difference—why yes, I think you’re right.  They’re evil twins.



5 pages and this thread has remained in Meta when it appears to be a Reputation thread... what should one derive from that??

I think the least self-serving interpretation I could make is that the moderators of Meta may agree with this post from the first page:

There's a lot of "shit talking" and not enough "rose talking". Let's all try to acknowledge the best among us (and merit isn't enough). Can we do that? Will you join me?

(I also concur with the principle thereby stated.)



Last week, I began drafting for this thread a suitable “diatribe” ....

Oh Merit Magnate, please think again, consider self recusal.
Will there be no thread free of illumination from your searchlight intellect?

Think of this thread as some Austrian's box, and the answer to its question as a cat.
Don't break down.
Save us from the gas.

I agree that a thread created by my admirers, for the purpose of talking about me, should not become my daily personal soapbox; and I wouldn’t so spoil it.  But I do think the folks here may appreciate the occasional (many) word(s) from me, if and when I have something worthwhile to say on the topic.

(Note:  The foregoing is not the “diatribe”.)
1811  Other / Meta / Yes, Copper Membership can be purchased when “Brand New”. on: March 03, 2018, 08:11:54 PM
Hi, guys! Have I to wait till my account got updated to Newbie, or I can submit Cooper Member status even being Brand New?

Yes, you can buy Copper Membership and “wear” it when “Brand New”.  There is no reason to wait.  After you create your account, simply follow the instructions at:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=credit;promote

I myself was already wearing my Copper Membership when I made my first post.

N.b. that this can substitute for paying the “evil IP” fee, if you created your account through Tor, a VPN, or a proxy.  If you want Copper Membership, ignore the “unproxyban” instructions; and follow the above link instead.  The Copper Membership fee is larger than the “evil IP” fee, and will absolve you of the evil.  For Tor, etc. users who intend to go Copper anyway, purchasing it when “Brand New” will save a transaction fee:  1 tx to buy Copper, rather than 2 tx for “evil IP” + Copper.  (I am a Tor user:  All Tor, all the time.)

@theymos, please consider adding a link to the “credit;promote” page on the “credit;unproxyban” page with a brief explanation.  That would help users who want Copper anyway, and probably sell more memberships.

(Of course, all the foregoing is irrelevant to you, Jonas_SONDER:  As of this writing; you already have made 4 posts; and I see you at “Newbie” status.  The foregoing information is provided for the benefit of others.)
1812  Economy / Reputation / Quickseller finally learns to beg the question! on: March 03, 2018, 07:39:46 PM
So Lauda, how much are you spending on your addiction every week?

Congratulations, Quicksy!  In your study of the Book of Smear Tactics, you have finally reached the intermediate-level chapter titled “Begging the Question”.  I admit, I did tutor you earlier in this thread:

When did you stop beating your wife?

Question-begging was predicted by me; but evidently, I overestimated Quickseller.  It seems he has not reached past the introductory chapters of the Book of Smear Tactics:

(Next standard twist:  Classic “begging the question”.  “Lauda, when did you stop leaving negative trust tags while in drug-fuelled rages?”)

Given current fads in education, I think this is the point when I should pat you on the head, and boost your self-esteem.  Goooood joooooob, Quicksy!  Thumbs-up.  A gold star for your star-chart.


After multiple more weeks, Lauda has yet to dispute any of the claims in this thread.

Lauda seems to maintain his position that he wants to subtly imply this is untrue, while very clearly not giving a concrete response to this. In my eyes, this makes lauda a liar.

Yet still, you are a poor student.  A disappointment.  Just as you learned from me how to beg the question, you should also try as hard as you can to grasp some of my other lessons:

It has been clearly, repeatedly explained that in the absence of any evidence whatsoever, placing somebody in a position to deny a scandalous charge is a classic smear tactic and nothing more.

Too bad, it seems that the concept of not using smear tactics may be too advanced for your innate capacity of comprehension.  The concept of executing such a smear, you evidently understand all too well.


which pill addiction? red pull or blue pill. answer really important

I admit that I myself have a red-pill addiction.  Lauda also seems to, judging by behaviour.  Very suspicious.
1813  Economy / Gambling / The challenge of fair and rigorous skeptical investigation on: March 03, 2018, 07:10:41 PM
I'll offer to audit this script.

I myself will vouch for RGBKey’s technical competence for performing such an audit.

Why?

I'll offer to audit this script.

I mean, do we really need to?

Because:

Another idea:  Private audit.

Alia, you yourself made this an issue:

Like I said, many, many times... not everything has to be 100% math based. My aim is to make profit for people, and I am doing it. That is my end goal. Not to fit your stupid equations (which are not even relevant since you don't know the intricacies of how my script works)

If your ultimate answer is that your critics lack sufficient knowledge to judge your script because they haven’t seen it, then it is incumbent on you to grant such knowledge.

As for this quite reasonable question:

I am not sure why is so important to prove something which doesn't exist.

I already gave a reasonable answer:

...perhaps a credible auditor may be interested in approaching this as a “skeptical investigator”.  There do exist eminent scientists who make a hobby (or even a secondary career) out of investigating famous spoon-bending psychics, and the like.  Their investigations are not jokes; they are serious and scientifically rigorous.

When drafting those words (before RGBKey posted his auditing offer), I had considered mentioning persons including RGBKey as potential auditors.  I decided against it:  I should not try to entangle anyone in such a task, unless that person is already willing to apply his technical competence to the task of being a fair and rigorous “skeptical investigator”.  Not all scientific and engineering professionals would wish to deal with such a controversy.  I am glad that RGBKey offered to do so, fully of his own accord.

I will note that the professional scientists who usually do such investigations of famous psychics, etc. are fair and scientifically rigorous in their investigations.  Their own scientific reputations are on the line:  They would not kill their own credibility by presuming any conclusion in advance, or by applying anything other than their usual scientific standards as they do elsewhere.

I think the point is that it should be important for alia, who is claiming to be able to defy everything that you just said. And handing it over for an audit would be a much quicker way to do it that dragging this out for 100 days.

I fully expect alia to weasel out of this for some random reason.

I predict similarly.  But I hope otherwise.  Given how Alia’s ultimate answer has turned out to be that our “stupid equations” don’t apply because we don’t know the “intricacies” of her script, RGBKey’s offer of an audit is a challenge:  Put up, or shut up.
1814  Economy / Gambling / Re: Proving that my gambling script works. on: March 03, 2018, 06:02:33 PM
Last-minute add-on:

I'll offer to audit this script. If alia wants to send it to me then I will go through it and analyze how it works and post my analysis about it here without revealing its inner workings. I don't plan to bet money with it, instead to analyze the code.

Some of my posts take much time to write, gather links and quotes for, etc.  I wrote the below part about auditing before RGBKey posted this.

I myself will vouch for RGBKey’s technical competence for performing such an audit.  I don’t know gambling; but I have interacted with RGBKey in the Development & Technology forum, and he knows his stuff.  I would trust the results of any gambling script audit performed by RGBKey.

What say you, Alia?



[...]

A super-secret math-defying script for one bet? Totes legit.

Pathetic.  This is where I stop even trying to argue, and just break out my popcorn.

Actually, I should have done that awhile ago.


If this is not math to you, then I feel very sorry for you (for being you) and for myself for having to read through your nonsense.

It is math, but it's bad math.

TL;DR on Alia’s script and her arguments in favour of it.


1 - PM stands for 'Personal message' and notice the word 'private' is not within the name
2 - If you want to maintain confidentiality, GPG (or another encryption means should be used), this is primarily how I judge if I will be willing to disclose information received via PM
3 - If GPG is not used, there is the potential for anyone with access to the forum DB to trivially read your PMs, even after they are deleted because the entire DB is backed up every day.

You forgot Cloudflare:

The security implications are that Cloudflare can read everything you send to or receive from the server, including your cleartext password and any PMs you send or look at. They can't access the database arbitrarily, though: they can only see data that passes over the Internet.

Also, you’re preaching to the vicar.  Observe that my signature contains my e-mail address, the admonition “Use PGP!”, and the identifiers for two PGP keys (ECC for GPG 2.1+, Keybase, and some other implementations; RSA for everybody else).  And I have been vocal about my dismay at the abysmal state of PGP use amongst users of so-called “cryptos” (!):

This is why I think user education is important.  For a forum dealing with what is now colloquially called “crypto”, only an astonishly small proportion of users are crypto-savvy.

One of my first thoughts on seeing anything Bitcoin-related is, “Why isn’t public-key crypto used for all authentication?”  Of all places, the Bitcoin Forum should lead with that!  If you use Bitcoin, you should also use PGP, at the bare minimum; and the attention brought by Bitcoin makes for an opportunity to introduce more people to what old cypherpunks call “crypto”, resulting in more security all-around.

As a 90s-era cypherpunk, I’ve been pushing PGP use for so long, to so little effect, that at this point I will do almost anything [NSFW] to raise user awareness of actual “crypto”.  (That thread started with general applied cryptography background at a beginner level; I had intended that when it really got going, lessons would move on to PGP/GPG use and also, OTR for chat.)

Anyway...

I would point out that alia threatened to release information about aTriz (source:
Quote from: alia
I will be forced to reveal certain things that he has done.
However from what I have seen, alia has not released any negative information about aTriz. One could argue that alia was bluffing when she made that statement, however aTriz would be very much aware that alia didn't have negative information about him and it should have reasonably be known that making that statement would make alia look very bad. To me, it does not make any sense this would be a bluff.

The full extortion threat is here:

I would advise aTriz not to try and "wriggle out" of the contract, because it puts me in a position where I will be forced to reveal certain things that he has done. If he sticks to the terms of the contract, as stipulated, he is my friend, and he will not be my enemy. Being my enemy is not a very favourable position for anyone to be in. Roll Eyes

That did strike me as a peculiarly stupid bluff to make, if it was a bluff.  But aTriz did avoid the contract; and rather than dropping some scandalous bombshell, Alia apparently returned his prepayment on it.  Moreover, I note, Alia had previously rattled a similar sabre at me (albeit much more weakly):

That ship has long since sailed. I'm afraid nullius has only his soggy pillow left (unless, after someone Skypes me, he publicly apologizes for even beginning to doubt me after all the personal stuff I shared with him). Oh yes, he has shared his fair share of personal things, but I would never betray his trust and even speak of it here. I wonder if he would do the same

Interesting.  Testing the waters?

You shared very little of a personal nature with me; and most of that was generic.  Brief mention of your college majors, etc.  Nothing very personal (except a few sex bits you also give your clients), and certainly nothing which could be compromising to you.  Indeed, the one time I tried to press you for information (because I wanted to help—about your purported privacy breach, for which you got the username change), you firmly kept me at arm’s length; and you barely told me more about that than you stated in public forum postings.

Whereas I gave you a carefully measured amount of low-level private communication which I do desire to be kept confidential.  Nothing which could compromise me if leaked—nothing for which you could blackmail me—because I didn’t trust you yet.  I was trying to build trust with you; and the only way to do that is to give someone something real, bit by bit, and see over time if they can be trusted with it.  (Intelligence agencies have some similar methods.)

I cut that off cold; Alia only has from me a few bits of high-grade sex talk (PMed with PGP)—disclosure of which could moderately upset me just on principles of privacy, plus severely titillate the forum.  Nothing which could actually hurt me.

Given Alia’s propensity to rattle an extortionate sabre, I presume that what you quoted was a bold but badly-calculated bluff.

A lot of the concerns about aTriz were more or less being ignored in the thread about aTriz, and most of the conversation was surrounding the signature contract.

I think that if the person who started that thread was satified, then the matter can be considered resolved.  scam_detector seems unbiased; remember that he started by making serious accusations against me, too, in the alia scam thread (then dropped his accusations against me when I showed contrary evidence).  I will admit that I have a moderate positive bias toward aTriz, of the kind inevitable amongst human beings in social scenarios.  (N.b. that as of a few days ago, I had a strong positive bias toward Alia; and that did not stop me from changing my opinion based on credible evidence!)  Given your post history, you must admit that you have a strong negative bias toward aTriz—really, that you bear a grudge.  Whereas scam_detector seems interested only in detecting scams (for which reason, I will now pay close attention to any accusations he makes).  He locked the thread—not when Lauda publicly suggested it, but much later, when he decided it was appropriate.  I think that settles it.

I don't think alia is exactly putting in a lot of effort into making it appear she is actually running any kind of script,

True.  (suchmoon’s post on the same page, excerpted above, is an eye-opener on this point.)

If you operate under the assumption that alia is not using a script in this thread, then the only reasonable explanation as to what the point of this thread is would be to expose aTriz for giving fake vouches.

The only possible point for whom?  Such an allegation is obviously your point; and you’re the only one who has made that allegation here.

As for Alia, I have advanced two different (but not mutually exclusive) hypotheses as to why Alia is doing this:  The “kook” theory of a self-described “degen” gambler fixated on the idea of a winning script; and the “long con” theory of a scammer with nothing to lose, who cooks up the ploy of an ill-designed “empirical” experiment she has a large chance of winning by blind luck.  Since there is no evidence other than Alia’s uncorroborated word of any script being actually used here (plus other reasons), I now lean strongly toward the latter theory—exclusively.

As a counterpoint to the above, it is possible that alia is trying to frame aTriz into it looking like he was giving a fake vouch.

Interesting theory.  I note that this thread was started after the (in)validity of the signature contract had been broached, and many people were advocating that it should be voidable.  Means (that foolhardy vouch), motive (the signature contract), opportunity (obvious).  But that alone does not make a case beyond reasonable suspicion; any other evidence?

However I don't think this is the case because when their relationship was scrutinized, the vouch did not appear legitimate even when ignoring all of the above. This is a script that was being sold for $10,000, however the basis for aTriz's vouch was that he made bets totaling well under of penny and had winnings of well under a penny (he said he used faucet money to test the script) -- think about that for a minute and let that sink in. think about just how ridiculous that sounds.

The weight of all evidence I have thus far seen is that aTriz got sucked into a situation where he was a bit starstruck, and made some foolhardy mistakes—even, yes, one which looks quite ridiculous.  The totality of the situation must be examined:  The vouch in question, the unprecedented signature contract, and also my own involvement.  (Remember that aTriz was seeking my signature, too, as I disclosed in the other thread.  In view of Alia’s close public association with me, I hope that my reputation for technical credibility did not improperly weigh in his eyes in favour of a script which I myself didn’t even know about until after the scam accusations broke.)  All this was examined, in the aTriz thread where aTriz was the topic.

Remember:  Many people got fooled here.  I myself got fooled, badly.  Even theymos got fooled—not so badly, but nevertheless.  There was a domino effect:  I looked to theymos’ neutral reporting of a fact (/r/GirlsGoneBitcoin verification) on Alia’s trust page; arguably, I may have read too much into it.  Via private as well as public communications, I am almost 100% certain that aTriz first heard of Alia due to me.  So, aTriz got fooled even worse than I did—in some part because I was fooled, and Alia was carrying my afterglow.  Of course, aTriz is responsible for his own decisions, just as I am for mine; but still, this is the simplest explanation, and the most likely.


Yeah well, I gave aTriz the script, he ran it, it worked, he vouched. I thereafter deleted the script from the chat. Pretty simple to get, right?
So do you have a problem with aTriz disclosing the script in order to prove the script actually exists?

Do I have a problem with aTriz disclosing a script that I was trying to, at one point, selling for 1 BTC a piece? Absolutely.

Another idea:  Publicly commit a hash of the script:  Bit-for-bit, exactly the version which was provided to aTriz.  Perhaps even a keyed hash (HMAC).  I would be willing to produce and escrow a secret key for that purpose, under appropriate terms as for the purpose of this commitment, and the exact circumstances under which I would agree to disclose the secret.

This would fix the bit-for-bit identity of the script, as a reference point for any future investigation of it (whether publicly, or by a private auditor).

So, Alia, do you have a problem committing a SHA-256 here?  I don’t think the keyed hash would be necessary, for any script of nontrivial length.  (I would suggest that keyed hashes be used for such purposes as committing evidence of names, e-mail addresses, and other very short texts which could easily be bruteforced from databases of known identifiers.  That is a large mistake of many people who commit identity hashes.)


You do realize that as it stands now, no one will ever buy your script from you, for a number of reasons.

If your script has any level of legitimacy, you should allow others who have the ability to audit the code and methods to do so. This is probably the only realistic way of redeeming your trust.

Another idea:  Private audit.

Alia, you yourself made this an issue:

Like I said, many, many times... not everything has to be 100% math based. My aim is to make profit for people, and I am doing it. That is my end goal. Not to fit your stupid equations (which are not even relevant since you don't know the intricacies of how my script works)

If your ultimate answer is that your critics lack sufficient knowledge to judge your script because they haven’t seen it, then it is incumbent on you to grant such knowledge.

In both open-source and proprietary software, paid professional audits by independent third parties are an industry best practice.  Proprietary software is typically audited under NDA terms.  In this case, I seriously doubt that any credible expert would make of himself a laughingstock by accepting an ordinary audit job for a mathematically impossible script.  However, perhaps a credible auditor may be interested in approaching this as a “skeptical investigator”.  There do exist eminent scientists who make a hobby (or even a secondary career) out of investigating famous spoon-bending psychics, and the like.  Their investigations are not jokes; they are serious and scientifically rigorous.

Why don’t you ask some of your critics here if they’d be interested in taking a paid audit job under NDA?

(Note:  I am not offering to do this, for the following reasons:  (0) Obvious COI, which would present at best an appearance of impropriety; it needs to be an independent third party, who was never before involved with you.  (1) My lack of technical competence in the specialist subject of games of chance—a deficiency I intend to fix, but have not yet.)


[...good maths vs. bad maths...]

Either maths is applicable to your script (and therefore, as we've shown, your script is a scam) or you've written a script which breaks the fundamental laws of mathematics, in which case you are sitting on Nobel Prize material.

s/Nobel Prize/Fields Medal/.  Which is much more exclusive, and would be almost unprecedented if Alia really be a woman.  Oh, don’t complain about my mention of an inconvenient fact; I’ve already been branded “politically incorrect”:

Loading image...
1815  Economy / Gambling / Re: Proving that my gambling script works. on: March 03, 2018, 03:46:54 AM
I wonder if aTriz is able to produce a script of any kind that he was vouching for...

I think it was shaken out rather clearly in those threads that aTriz doesn’t have any scripting ability worth speaking of.
Maybe I was not clear.

alia allegedly sent aTriz some kind of gambling script for him to test and vouch for. aTriz claimed to test this $10,000 gambling script with faucet money for 10 minutes and vouched for it. In order for aTriz to test this script, alia would have had to have sent the script to him. I am curious to know if aTriz is able to produce/show the script that alia sent him.

According to the OP, alia is using the handle 'makealiagreatagain' on bustabit, however a review of the betting history on that account only shows four bets made, even though the OP claims to have run the script for two days.

I am willing to say there is a fairly decent chance that alia is not running a script, especially considering all of alia's bets appears to be 'all in' bets.

If alia is not currently using a script, then maybe there was never any kind of script in the first place.

Interesting question.  It well may be the case that no script is being run now; and at best, the only evidence we have of a script now being run is Alia’s unsupported word.

However, I seriously doubt that Alia’s script be wholly non-existent.  Perforce, something must have been on-hand to provide to paying marks customers.  It simply would not do, if the script-selling scam business had to close down early due to paying customers complaining of having received nothing at all.

As for the question of aTriz disclosing his copy of the putative script, I think that raises a far stickier issue than that of the signature ad contract.  I am not familiar with the situation, other than what’s been discussed in public threads; but given Alia’s secretiveness about that script, I presume that it must have been provided to him under some sort of confidentiality terms.

For an analogy, consider PMs which Alia sent to me.  I have publicly disclosed a few of those; but I only did so when reasonably required for an investigative or otherwise evidentiary purpose, and I minimized the disclosures as much as practicable.  Even after what has happened to date, I would not dump out all the PMs in public.  That has nothing to do with my opinion of Alia, and everything to do with my principles about PMs.

If the script were reasonably required for an investigative purpose, then I would urge aTriz to disclose it.  But I see no such need here.

What Alia claims the script to do is mathematically impossible; and we don’t need to see the script for that to be proved.  By analogy, suppose that somebody disclosed to aTriz under strict NDA a design for a perpetual motion machine, or a recursive compressor.  Would it be required that aTriz violate the NDA for the purpose of publicly proving that the thing is bunkum?  (Obviously, that is a rhetorical question.)

I can think of some circumstances under which such a disclosure might be required, for other purposes; e.g., if an investigator were comparing gambling scripts sold by allegedly different people for the purpose of linking identities, identifying the real authors of such scripts, etc.  That question is beyond the scope of yours.

Parenthetically, I note that you claimed that the signature ad contract was still valid and binding on aTriz.  Whereas that agreement was clearly voidable.  Here, you are clearly setting the stage for some suggestion that aTriz actually disclose the script—predictably followed by pressure on him to disclose the script, and accusations that he’s protecting a scammer if he doesn’t cough it up.  Why the switcheroo, with you here insinuating that agreements can be freely ignored?  Not that I’m surprised to see this level of inconsistency from you.


Until aTriz can prove otherwise, it appears that aTriz was vouching for a script that didn't even exist

Oh, here we go!  I wrote the above prediction, hit “Preview”, and was informed in red letters that another post had been made—this one.  “Here, you are clearly setting the stage for some suggestion that aTriz actually disclose the script—predictably followed by pressure on him to disclose the script, and accusations that he’s protecting a scammer if he doesn’t cough it up.”  Well, you don’t wait long building these things up, now do you?
1816  Other / Meta / Nullian fan art on: March 03, 2018, 03:09:23 AM
@Regana, nice work.

As of Activity Period 1257, which starts 2018-03-13 19:40:00 UTC, I will be eligible for Full Member rank.  That means I will be permitted to wear an avatar.

For the long term, I will most likely make a nym.zone logo and use that as my permanent avatar—either that, or an insignia specific to “nullius”.  In the interim, however, I fancy a little image rotation; and for a start, I’d enjoy using some fan art!

Hmmm...

Code:
$ convert OMUhOQp.jpg -crop 749x499+302+178 -resize 120x80 avatar0.png

Loading image...

Unless something else comes up in the next ten days, I suppose that may become my first avatar.

Perhaps I may even embed some variation of this in my PGP key(s), as a “photo ID” (formally a “User Attribute Packet” (Tag 17), “Image Attribute Subpacket” (Type 1); see RFC 4880 §5.12).

Code:
$ convert OMUhOQp.jpg -crop 749x899+302+178 -resize 240x288 pgp0.jpeg

Loading image...

Would it be convenient for you to provide source material, such that I could tweak the aspect ratio and text sizes in ways more suitable for different crops?



Last week, I began drafting for this thread a suitable “diatribe” (in YuTü.Co.in’s parlance).  It got put on hold, due to some unlucky forum drama.  Till I finish that, I may begin to work backwards and reply to others here, bit by bit.

I thank those who have been making friendly posts in this thread.

Cheers, all.
1817  Economy / Gambling / “Mathematical mumbo jumbo”—“stupid equations”—“muh math” on: March 03, 2018, 02:12:17 AM
I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo...

Yeah, maybe the maths says I am crazy, but this has worked for me before and I vehemently believe it will continue to work for me

not everything has to be 100% math based.

stupid equations

"but muh math"

your math does not apply to my script.

I hope you realize that given the nature of our prior relationship, your patent disrespect for maths is more embarrassing to me than any other part of this sordid affair.

It is worse than your being publicly caught by me in a lie, when I was searching for some means to prove your innocence and corroborate your identity.  (Whereas you claimed you knew were close IRL friends with “Dave” from “the best wallet recovery service”, Dave doesn’t know you—so says Dave.)

It is even worse than the evidence that you are actually a boy, as presented by credible people such as theymos, ibminer, and NLNico (i.e. not forum “you = satoshi = aliens!!” wackjobs).

It is just that bad.

If you had some deeper mathematical understanding than your critics, then you would shred their arguments in mathematical terms.  That’s what I do to idiots who wander into Dev & Tech.  If you claim that your critics’ arguments are

not even relevant since you don't know the intricacies of how my script works

...then you would use your own superior knowledge of the script to explain with mathematical arguments where your critics are wrong.  Actual mathematical arguments, not the cock-eyed handwaving plus statistically invalid empiricism which you just presented as “mathematical proof”!

I hang my head in shame that I ever associated with someone who sneers at “muh math”.


I'll put it simply so you half-wits can understand.

Such pathetic unintentional comedy belongs in certain Off-Topic threads.
1818  Economy / Gambling / Re: Proving that my gambling script works. on: March 03, 2018, 02:09:28 AM
I'll put it simply so you half-wits can understand.

With the house edge, the odds of winning a bet at or above a 1.2x multiplier is 0.99/1.2 = 82.5%

So the odds of getting a 20% ROI on any bet is 82.5%.

Now, the odds of getting a 20% ROI on any bet ten times in a row is (82.5%)^10 = 14.6%.

This is assuming your aim is to hit 1.2x or more 10 times. The script does not do this, but for the sake of simplicity, I am using 20% because that is my target ROI.

So, even without a script, on pure blind luck, the odds of anyone getting a 20% ROI ten times is 14.6%.

What about 100 times? The odds of getting 20% ROI 100 times is (82.5%)^100 = 4.419721e-7%, astronomically small. And yet, with my script, you will see it happen before your eyes. I won't post here every day, but for the next 100 days, 9/10 times (or more), you will see a 20% ROI on the initial bet. And please don't reply here with some bullshit, just wait for the proof before crying "but muh math" because your math does not apply to my script. It applies to what you know but not to what I have done.

I... just gave mathematical proof...

“Mathematical proof”.  Interesting definition of the term.  If the above-quoted text be “mathematical proof”, then I’m Satoshi Nakamoto and the Earth is flat.

Aaaand that's the nail in the coffin for you. I clearly outlined the odds of me getting the specific ROIs on a site with a 1% house edge, guess you just ignored all of that. Good work nully

So...  How does your “mathematical proof” explain o_e_l_e_o’s easyscript?

@o_e_l_e_o, I want to invest!  Or buy your script!  (P.S., I am suing you in Bitcourt for trademark infringement due to the confusing similarity of your script’s name to that of easyseed.)

I have made my own script. I call it "Easy Script". It has gauranteed returns. It is 100% effective. To prove this, I ran it 10 times looking for a 20% ROI each time. It was successful 10/10 times. I started with 1 bit, and ended with 3 bits. I made 200% ROI. It never lost! You can see the proof here:

https://www.bustabit.com/user/easyscript



What's my point here? Anyone with half a brain can tell that this is clearly nonsense, despite the proof I have posted. It was blind luck, and if I continue to play the script, I will lose money. I know this despite my 100% success rate so far, because every script will lose money.

There is no such thing as a winning script. There is only short-term luck, and long-term losses.

(And that’s “Mr. nully” to you.)
1819  Economy / Gambling / Re: Proving that my gambling script works. on: March 03, 2018, 01:48:44 AM
I'll put it simply so you half-wits can understand.

With the house edge, the odds of winning a bet at or above a 1.2x multiplier is 0.99/1.2 = 82.5%

So the odds of getting a 20% ROI on any bet is 82.5%.

Now, the odds of getting a 20% ROI on any bet ten times in a row is (82.5%)^10 = 14.6%.

This is assuming your aim is to hit 1.2x or more 10 times. The script does not do this, but for the sake of simplicity, I am using 20% because that is my target ROI.

So, even without a script, on pure blind luck, the odds of anyone getting a 20% ROI ten times is 14.6%.

What about 100 times? The odds of getting 20% ROI 100 times is (82.5%)^100 = 4.419721e-7%, astronomically small. And yet, with my script, you will see it happen before your eyes. I won't post here every day, but for the next 100 days, 9/10 times (or more), you will see a 20% ROI on the initial bet. And please don't reply here with some bullshit, just wait for the proof before crying "but muh math" because your math does not apply to my script. It applies to what you know but not to what I have done.

Your statement is like stepping off a roof of a skyscraper. It doesn't matter if you think the laws of physics don't apply to you, said laws will work just the same.

Math will catch up to you just like gravity does because the site you're gambling on operates in this universe, not in your fantasy land.

I... just gave mathematical proof... and you're still stuck on dumb ass analogies. Seriously, leave.

“Mathematical proof”.  Interesting definition of the term.  If the above-quoted text be “mathematical proof”, then I’m Satoshi Nakamoto and the Earth is flat.

Aaaand that's the nail in the coffin for you. I clearly outlined the odds of me getting the specific ROIs on a site with a 1% house edge, guess you just ignored all of that. Good work nully

What you presented is neither “mathematical proof” in the rigorous abstract sense by which mathematicians use that term—nor a valid design for an empirical experiment, as explained by the “stupid equations” and results thereof set forth by RGBKey and o_e_l_e_o.

(And that’s “Mr. nully” to you.)
1820  Economy / Gambling / Re: Proving that my gambling script works. on: March 03, 2018, 01:30:51 AM
I'll put it simply so you half-wits can understand.

With the house edge, the odds of winning a bet at or above a 1.2x multiplier is 0.99/1.2 = 82.5%

So the odds of getting a 20% ROI on any bet is 82.5%.

Now, the odds of getting a 20% ROI on any bet ten times in a row is (82.5%)^10 = 14.6%.

This is assuming your aim is to hit 1.2x or more 10 times. The script does not do this, but for the sake of simplicity, I am using 20% because that is my target ROI.

So, even without a script, on pure blind luck, the odds of anyone getting a 20% ROI ten times is 14.6%.

What about 100 times? The odds of getting 20% ROI 100 times is (82.5%)^100 = 4.419721e-7%, astronomically small. And yet, with my script, you will see it happen before your eyes. I won't post here every day, but for the next 100 days, 9/10 times (or more), you will see a 20% ROI on the initial bet. And please don't reply here with some bullshit, just wait for the proof before crying "but muh math" because your math does not apply to my script. It applies to what you know but not to what I have done.

Your statement is like stepping off a roof of a skyscraper. It doesn't matter if you think the laws of physics don't apply to you, said laws will work just the same.

Math will catch up to you just like gravity does because the site you're gambling on operates in this universe, not in your fantasy land.

I... just gave mathematical proof... and you're still stuck on dumb ass analogies. Seriously, leave.

“Mathematical proof”.  Interesting definition of the term.  If the above-quoted text be “mathematical proof”, then I’m Satoshi Nakamoto and the Earth is flat.
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