Martin Armstrong Discussion

[TPTB_need_war]

Interesting long-term economic charts here starting on page 25:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2015/speech797.pdf#page=31

The interest rate chart on page 31 lies to our eyes. The x-axis is non-linear and crams all the history before 1575 A.D. into a very small space, and the chart does not reflect the difference between maximum and minimum rates, nor reflect a weighting due to capital concentration.



Armstrong again exhibits that he has the most thorough and accurate databases of world history as follows. Armstrong's more accurate chart imparts a different conclusion, which is that interest rates are on an inexorable decline. I have related this to the empowerment of individual human knowledge and thus the reduction of importance of usury in the economy.



Below Armstrong related lower interest rates to greater confidence where capital can concentrate. Or let's put it another way, where capital doesn't have to fear return of capital. But either way, what is capital concentration? Capital concentration is an excess of savings w.r.t. to those activities which require financing. Again this is the advancing individual knowledge age where as production requires less fixed capital and more individually accessible knowledge creation and creativity, then finance concentrates in excess because the economy is very productive but at the same time needs less and less finance. So as I have pointed out, we are not only headed to the death of Western governments and the concomitant Industrial Age, but also the death of nomimal interest rate returns on monetary savings. Since productivity can increase significantly in the Knowledge Age over what we had in the Industrial Age because of the greater degrees-of-freedom which is potential energy (see how in the above linked PDF, productivity increased from 0.1 to 1% per annum upon the dawn of the Industrial Age), then savings will gain purchasing power without earning any interest. The era of loans is coming to end.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/a-brief-history-of-world-credit-interest-rates/3000-b-c-500-a-d-the-ancient-economy

A history of credit and interest reveals one major trend that has been consistent through all time. The stronger an economy the lower the rate of interest. Interest rates are always at their lowest level internationally when capital reaches its point of maximum concentration. This normally results in a strong currency and high levels of confidence in general.

Interest rates also remain substantially above world rates in nations where confidence is low. Currently, this is true for South and Central America as well as in most third world nations. This observation does not arise merely from the events of today. Even during the days of Babylon, we find the same variance in rates with the lowest rate dominant in the strongest economy, which was the center of the Babylonian Empire. However, interest rates were usually much higher in neighboring nations which at times were more than twice those in Babylon. As the decline of Babylon came about during the fourth and fifth centuries B.C., interest rates soared with minimum rates reaching around 40% on silver loans. During the sixth through ninth centuries B.C., silver loans in Assyria and Persia were often in the 40-50% range.

[smooth]

Armstrong again exhibits that he has the most thorough and accurate databases of world history as follows. Armstrong's more accurate chart imparts a different conclusion, which is that interest rates are on an inexorable decline.

I guess different observers can interpret lines on a chart in different ways but I pretty much see the same conclusion. Both show several occasional outlier peaks against a longer term trend of rate declines.

I found the behavior of the long-term/short-term spread over the past few hundred years to be interesting on this new chart. Not something I'd seen plotted before.

The government output/GDP chart is also interesting. I posit that this is reaching (or may have already exceeded) an absolute long term limit. The tend can't continue.

[Conquest of Bread]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37321

QUESTION: ...I as 23 year old student worrying about my future. Classmates and friends experience hard times to find jobs and start a family. In these times it is almost impossible to find a job paying a non slavery salary. Let alone the recent requirements to get a mortgage.
My question to you: how to deal with these developments in these turbulent times? What can i, as student with minimal savings, do to ‘survive’ the coming sovereign debt crisis and to life a fulfilling live?...



And that's not to mention all the unpaid job placements (called job training) they do for years. The easy answer would be START A REVOLUTION.


"ANSWER: I have met with students in Paris and throughout Europe. The politicians cannot understand that they are destroying your future. All they can see is their need to retain power, but the high levels of taxes are so burdensome that they are preventing the creation of new jobs."

High levels of taxes is only a problem if they fall on the poor and weak. Whereas if they fall on the rich (which they no longer do as politicians act as agents for the wealthy and have been since Thatcher and Reagan) then we've got wealth redistribution and social justice. Today's politicians collaborate with the money lobbies and get their payoffs later in sinecure jobs in management and banking.


"We are reaching the end of this noose around our neck that was placed there by Marx..".


Poor old Karl. All he ever wanted to do was to free the masses from the slavery of capitalism and poverty. And for that he regularly gets aggressive  comments like this one that reflect over a century of accumulated bile. He should be revered instead of his ghost being constantly slagged off as some kind of incarnation of evil in assertions that have no arguments to prop them up. Without Marx we would all be mental serfs (as many of us still are). He's the drug that expanded the oppressed's minds into shaking off their chains, or at least trying to. Yet, he's automatically seen as a bad guy delighting in unspeakable deeds of equality. Lay off the propaganda tablets, man. By criticising sources of hope you're playing the capitalists' game. You're part of the problem although I'm sure you don't mean to be.


"...It is interesting how in the USA they call me a “conservative”, yet in France, they call me a “liberal” because I am against authoritative socialism. The labels change, but the message remains the same

Why did Marxism collapse? Because government cannot create anything new, for that requires the freedom to act and imagine which is exclusively an individual trait..."


Where is the proof of these overarching assertions? Why can't things be created collectively? MA is just sloganeering. I hope no one's listening. Slagging off Marxism just leads to the dead end of cynicism and despair.



"...Government creates nothing. They are the great destroyer..."



Under the tsars the mass of Russians lived in the sort of poverty we cannot even start to imagine and after the 1917 revolution they had housing, jobs, education and health care. But for those that today already have these essentials  of life, that the poor and downtrodden should get it by government action is seemingly pure anathema.



"...Companies grow and become bureaucratic. In the process, they terminate the creative genius upon which all companies are found...."



That's what you call the will to exploit others and live off their backs?



"...A creative person is a NON-CONFORMIST...."



Creative doesn't just mean setting up a business, thankfully. Artists are indeed exceptional people and don't need constraints. Business people are dangerous psychopaths and need all the constraints we can lay on them. Their selfishness is leading to the destruction of the world. They've already enslaved the whole of humanity with globalisation.



...Consequently, they do not suffer regulation and bureaucratic systems. So in come the lawyers and the accountants who then eject the creativity from the board, exactly as Apple got rid of Steve Jobs. Once the creative person is gone, the company begins its slow death...



Yippee!The sooner these parasites disappear the better for the rest of us. Is Armstrong seriously asking us to shed a tear for the poor businessman and woman?



"At first, they buy startups and pay huge money to gain creativity. In the end, bureaucracy kills the corporation for the very same reason government destroys the economy and shrinks it, no matter what they pretend."



That's how the USSR moved in a generation and despite two world wars and a deadly civil war (and with no outside help) from a backwards agrarian economy to a modern industrial one rivalling the usa in technology and production. First into space. Sorry yanks. Clearly the Soviet government destroyed the Russian economy! Why do you ignore great swathes of history?



"The is just one aspect that Marx could not see for there is no difference between a corrupt bureaucratic CEO running a company and a corrupt bureaucratic politician. Hence, socialism can Readnot survive for it lowers the living standard of the whole."



I've just shown the contrary.



"It is nice that we have social programs, but that came at a huge cost."



You can call them "nice" if you're a rich, well-meaning person but for those that receive (or no longer do with the conservatives in the UK for example) they're ESSENTIAL.


"Families were once tight groups for your children were your retirement since they took care of their parents in old age."



In rich families that was the case but for the rest of the population many old people went to the poor houses. Isn't that nice? Sorry about my tone but we're talking about people's lives here.



"Today, children no longer save to take care of their parents — that’s government’s job. Consequently, Eastern Europe and Asia (excluding Japan) are far better situated to cope with the future for they do not rely upon government."


Does it have to be one or the other? Can't it be both? MA is saying get rid of pensions then?



"The distrust of government in former communist areas is many times as much of what you will find in Europe or North America, ..."



What sociological tool has Armstrong used to measure the levels of distrust?



"...and indeed the majority rather than a minority. This will greatly insulate those regions from the worst decline compared to Europe and North America.

What you need to do is take back government. You cannot create a solution with the same line of thinking that created the current mess. The future belongs to the youth. Understand the devil you are dancing with. It is time to become politically active and challenge the establishment for that is the only way to save the future."


I say we must challenge government because it walks hand in hand with the rich. The state is the capitalist's tool for maintaining its hegemony. It makes the laws that further the rich's interests and helps them portion off ever greater quantities of wealth created by the workers (that's us). That's why we're in crisis. Their greed knows no limits. We are robbed of the profits of our work by parasitic capitalists who control the state to make their laws and the media to propagate their ideas and values.



"Many people do not appreciate what Thomas Jefferson..."



Wasn't he a slave-owner? Armstrong approves of the words of slave owners?



"...defined as part of the entire No Taxation Without Representation issue."




Good job there's no virtual tea around here or those poor merchants might just chuck into the digital sea!



"True, this began by the fact that taxes were not a right of the king and could only be authorized with the CONSENT of the people, which was given by their REPRESENTATIVES in Parliament."



Obviously.



"The “representation” was originally by the people for these representatives were NOT career politicians. We have lost ALL representation for politicians have become the career bureaucrats and thus exempt themselves from most of the laws they inflict upon the rest of us..."



Totally agree except for Cuba and Venezuala and some other states in South America.



"So once again the system has evolved into career politicians whereby we have lost all real representation transforming us into the property of the state to be herded like cattle and taxed to sustain the bureaucrats..."



We sustain bureaucrats AND capitalists. No wonder we can't make ends meet.



"While we may not yet be at that stage in the game since money is intangible for now, thanks to Marx, we are targeting the rich. Of course There was Maximinus I (235-238AD)whose reign lasted about 3.14 years. He simply declared ALL wealth within the Roman Empire belonged to the state (him) and paid rewards for anyone who gave information about someone hiding wealth precisely as governments do today – Germany & France paying bribes to Swiss Bankers to destroy their own country, US International Revenue Service paying rewards for reporting anyone not paying their taxes to such informants all precisely as Maximinis I operated."



I really get the feeling I'm being manipulated by spurious arguments that range over centuries and from one type of society to another. All this is very flimsy. Armstrong makes dangerous comparisons and draws toxic conclusions. Yes, the whole system is corrupt and needs destroying. I don't need to be told about some obscure Roman to know that. Marx will do nicely!



"Today, we once again have taxation without representation for those in office never represent the people but only government interest. But Jefferson added another dimension. Jefferson saw a national debt as two evils. First there was the fiscal problem of debt and interest. However, there was also a philosophical problem that everyone seems to overlook and this is the origin of the crisis faced by the Youth."



Maybe that idea came to him when he was whipping one of his slaves.



"Jefferson explained in a lettered dated September 6th, 1789 he wrote to James Madison stating that “the earth belongs ,,, to the living” and therefore “the dead have neither powers nor rights over it” whereby one’s parents had no authority to impose decisions upon their children and posterity who had no part in making them and that “every constitution,” “every law,” and every public debt should expire within a generation of its enactment. “If it be enforced longer,” he argued, “it is an act of force, and of right.” (PTJm 15:392, 396)"




I hate unjust force, too. But for me force has to be used to control capitalist criminals otherwise we'll end up under a mafia regime that's even worse than what we've got now.




"Therefore, I fully agree with Jefferson. You are burdened and your future has been predetermined for you are being taxed without any choice in the matter."



That's true because democracy works only for the rich.



"...You have been stripped of all your rights and your future has been stolen by socialists..."



I burst out laughing here. What a caricaturist you are, Armstrong! Why should socialists want to live well by robbing people of their freedom? They just have to become capitalists to do that. Socialists want happiness for everybody. They have ideals that guide their actions. They're not just in it for themselves. They're in it for others because they cannot stand to see injustice, poverty and suffering all over the world.



"...who wanted to live well by robbing you of your freedom and capacity to determine your own future...."



Why has MA got this pathological hatred of socialists, collective action and equality?



"For this, you must become politically active. Taxation is evil, and we no longer need taxation since money is no longer a commodity. Money is purely representational dependent upon faith and confidence. Government should not be allowed to borrow, for money should be created for its expense limited to a percent of GDP that cannot be increased except in time of war if ATTACKED – not like a 100 years war to justify taxation."



Taxation is the means by which gaping social injustices are slightly levelled out. Without taxes, there'd be no schools, no health care, no police, no roads - no public services. It'd truly be every man for himself. The jungle at our front door. The war of everyone against everyone else. Is that what Armstrong is proposing? Aren't we stronger as a species when we collaborate with one another instead of ripping one another off all the time?

[THX 1138]

Conquest of Bread is "my socialist friend" I've referred to previously. We've had many a heated discussion on similar matters over the years  

He's recently been exposed to the writings of Armstrong and the above is the result.

[luigi1111]

Taxation is the means by which gaping social injustices are slightly levelled out. Without taxes, there'd be no schools, no health care, no police, no roads - no public services. It'd truly be every man for himself. The jungle at our front door. The war of everyone against everyone else. Is that what Armstrong is proposing? Aren't we stronger as a species when we collaborate with one another instead of ripping one another off all the time?

Well this one at least is wrong wrong wrong. Plenty of schools exist that don't receive tax revenue. The others are likely wrong as well, but not so blatantly obvious as the first.

[smooth]

Taxation is the means by which gaping social injustices are slightly levelled out. Without taxes, there'd be no schools, no health care, no police, no roads - no public services. It'd truly be every man for himself. The jungle at our front door. The war of everyone against everyone else. Is that what Armstrong is proposing? Aren't we stronger as a species when we collaborate with one another instead of ripping one another off all the time?

Well this one at least is wrong wrong wrong. Plenty of schools exist that don't receive tax revenue. The others are likely wrong as well, but not so blatantly obvious as the first.

No health care is obviously false as well.

[trollercoaster]

It's pointless to argue with them, time will prove them wrong in our case.  

But I can understand the pleasure in provoking such a pitifully stupid human being, one whom sings praise towards karl marx..

It's like throwing stones at a wasp nest.

[TPTB_need_war]

Why can't things be created collectively?

After you run a profitable business (without government assistance), then you will know. Until then, you are just blowing snot out of your nose.

You could begin with the Mythical Man Month, as one example. But it applies to every venture. It is very, very difficult to get many individuals into sync and you end up with the LEAST common denominator to make it happen.

You apparently lack a conceptually mathematical mind, which is why this common sense doesn't make sense to you.

I guess different observers can interpret lines on a chart in different ways but I pretty much see the same conclusion. Both show several occasional outlier peaks against a longer term trend of rate declines.

The Bank of England liar chart attempts to paint the picture that interest rate declines have been decelerating (with significant outliers thus dominating more) by packing a shorter time period into most of the chart.

[suda123]

something something economics...something something ....economics...

what altcoins are good for the economic collapse and adoption? Been lurking threads here for a month now.

[jehst]

something something economics...something something ....economics...

what altcoins are good for the economic collapse and adoption? Been lurking threads here for a month now.

USEFUL commodities are tanking. what do you think is going to happen to USELESS commodities? bitcoin will retain some value because there are some people who actually use it everyday. altcoins are going to hell

[bigtimespaghetti]

Marx was an odious individual, and that's not even taking into account his theories, here's a fun presentation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yA2lCBJu2Gg

[Spring Tide]

Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Canada, etc..

Australia is a better choice than EU 

Able to continue my study in a different country. Couple of months left to decide. What would be best in the long run? Undergrad applied mathematics.

[TPTB_need_war]

Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Canada, etc..

Australia is a better choice than EU  

Able to continue my study in a different country. Couple of months left to decide. What would be best in the long run? Undergrad applied mathematics.

Canada would in theory allow you to more readily integrate with work opportunities in Canada or USA. Australia would in theory allow you to more readily participate in the boom coming in Asia from 2020 onward. I would think both have good universities. Australia is less cold. Consider cultural differences, even within different cities in the same country.

You might also consider Singapore if you want deeper integration into Chinese Asia and also multiculturalism where harsh discipline keeps its travails muted.

Also I would prioritize not going deep in debt while in school, thus an affordable education and/or some side job to supplement income.

[TPTB_need_war]

Armstrong warns that the final devolution of the British empire may be nigh. Also he writes negatively about socialism in Canada:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37407

Also he is thinking perhaps failure of Deustche Bank and Volkswagen may be the events for the Sept 30/Oct 1 2015.75 turning point on the ECM:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37443

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37393

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37397

[macsga]

Armstrong warns that the final devolution of the British empire may be nigh. Also he writes negatively about socialism in Canada:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37407

Also he is thinking perhaps failure of Deustche Bank and Volkswagen may be the events for the Sept 30/Oct 1 2015.75 turning point on the ECM:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37443

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37393

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37397

It seems that VW is not the only one to worry about EPA's fines. Right behind, follows the almighty BMW:

X3 records more than eleven times higher nitric oxide levels

Hot on the heels of Volkswagen’s huge diesel scandal, BMW could also get into trouble as it seems they were also cheating on emissions tests.
AutoBild reports the X3 xDrive 20d has failed during a street test performed by the International Council on Clean Transportation, showing more than eleven times higher emissions of nitric oxide than permitted by the European Union.
The information is still not confirmed by the Bavarian manufacturer, but the shares of the company have already fallen with more than 8% since Thursday morning.
Full details about the research are expected tomorrow with the next issue of the AutoBild magazine.

http://www.worldcarfans.com/115092499384/bmw-caught-cheating-with-nitric-oxide-levels-shares

[Conquest of Bread]

...But I can understand the pleasure in provoking such a pitifully stupid human being, one whom sings praise towards karl marx..

It's like throwing stones at a wasp nest.

Throwing insults instead of engaging with the arguments is a sign either of cowardice, ideological bankruptcy or intellectual limitations. It could be all three.

[bigtimespaghetti]

...But I can understand the pleasure in provoking such a pitifully stupid human being, one whom sings praise towards karl marx..

It's like throwing stones at a wasp nest.

Throwing insults instead of engaging with the arguments is a sign either of cowardice, ideological bankruptcy or intellectual limitations. It could be all three.

try not to take it personally CoB. This is a largely an-cap/libertarian forum and thread. While I'm sure we disagree on much I look forward to further discussion.

[macsga]

...But I can understand the pleasure in provoking such a pitifully stupid human being, one whom sings praise towards karl marx..

It's like throwing stones at a wasp nest.

Throwing insults instead of engaging with the arguments is a sign either of cowardice, ideological bankruptcy or intellectual limitations. It could be all three.

try not to take it personally CoB. This is a largely an-cap/libertarian forum and thread. While I'm sure we disagree on much I look forward to further discussion.

If we'd all agree to each other then there wouldn't be a place for conversation. The most qualitative ones that I had was with people who thought differently than I did. It's acceptable and -frankly- I seek to it! On the provocative attitude, you must try to understand that this is the internet. On this specific forum you will have to accept that some of the most intelligent persons around the globe are probably regulars, but not all of them are patient with each other.

I rarely am pissed at somebody's comments on the net. Doesn't worth it and the best attitude is to embrace them with the confidence, that it's not your fault, but usually theirs.

[OROBTC]

...

In Europe, it's not just Greece anymore.  Bad rumblings are coming out of all of Europe, especially and including Mighty Germany, the linchpin of Europe.  Americans have seen how Volkswagen has gotten hit because of the pollution emissions scandal, and VW's shares have been hard hit over the past couple of days.

Other analysts have been noting that Deutsche Bank has big problems (especially a big derivatives problem).  Armstrong just today writes that Deutsche Bank, and Germany itself, are at risk.  Then comes Europe...

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37443

Deutsche Bank falls, ahh, many other problems will follow in its wake.


*   *   *


Easy to use & understand charts of the DAX (German stock index) are at this link:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DAX?countrycode=DX

The DAX is down some 25% over the past few months.....

[macsga]

In Europe, it's not just Greece anymore.  Bad rumblings are coming out of all of Europe, especially and including Mighty Germany, the linchpin of Europe.  Americans have seen how Volkswagen has gotten hit because of the pollution emissions scandal, and VW's shares have been hard hit over the past couple of days.

Other analysts have been noting that Deutsche Bank has big problems (especially a big derivatives problem).  Armstrong just today writes that Deutsche Bank, and Germany itself, are at risk.  Then comes Europe...
[...]
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DAX?countrycode=DX
The DAX is down some 25% over the past few months.....

From my point of view, it was never Greece. It was never something they "couldn't handle" in a split of a second if they decided to. Think about it. The GDP of Greece vs the EU GDP is what? 0.3%? What are we talking about here? I was talking about Greece playing the "decoy" victim for others to go slowly into the transition of a narrower EU economy. Austerity in order EU lasts longer. Until now.

What I find particularly annoying, is the DEVILISH fact that this damn Germany crisis happened just in time with the end of September. Just in time for 2015.75! It wasn't visible until now! Could this fire up the economic crash? Definitely a yes. Could anyone have predicted it a week ago? I'd say with confidence a bold NO.

And here it is. Armstrong has great potential to get the prediction of the century right. Well. Bummer.