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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509469 times)
pent
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March 11, 2012, 10:28:40 AM
 #2061

I meant by knowing what people are doing. Your profit doesn't necessarily have to align with what he said in the newsletter.
Right. And that is why I asking: Where are the signals?



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Blitz­
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March 11, 2012, 10:28:54 AM
 #2062

And it is very clear that people once again act upon it.  Let's see how much funds are controlled by these newsletter.
A criticism I have issued before. I think he puts up the price on his subscribers temporarily and makes them worse off. For instance, the buy(s) that made the 5.07 top was caused by one update as I recall.

Same thing happens on the bottom.

I don’t think this is a win/win scenario. People should come to conclusions theirselves, not act within seconds of some email just because they are "forced" to by others who do it as quickly as possible.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 11, 2012, 10:39:01 AM
 #2063

Every big spike is caused by this newsletter. He said SHORT! And people short. He said RALLY! and there is a some rally. Instantly. From minutes to seconds after update.

This is not prediction, but manipulation.

Or maybe just subscribers are stupid to directly follow the command received.

So where are the signals?
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March 11, 2012, 10:41:03 AM
 #2064

But if you profit off that, does it really bother you?
It’s hard to profit off that. You have to be first and you have to get out first as soon as it seems to fail.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 11, 2012, 10:41:58 AM
 #2065

This is all looks like that

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIr97bY6GXM
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March 11, 2012, 11:03:00 AM
 #2066

But if you profit off that, does it really bother you?
He said in previous short term update "short on any spike". Now he declared a rally.

This is why it is important to stay up-to-speed to the market. Things change, depending on recent price action.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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March 11, 2012, 11:41:28 AM
 #2067

But if you profit off that, does it really bother you?
It’s hard to profit off that. You have to be first and you have to get out first as soon as it seems to fail.

Yeah I wasn't talking about profiting from that. 
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March 11, 2012, 01:08:37 PM
 #2068

Yeah I wasn't talking about profiting from that.  
Definately agree.

1. Open position
2. Issue short term update to subscribers
3. ? ? ? ?
4. PROFIT!

This is somewhat of insider trading. This is criminal in particular countries.
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March 11, 2012, 01:24:43 PM
 #2069

Yeah I wasn't talking about profiting from that.  
Definately agree.

1. Open position
2. Issue short term update to subscribers
3. ? ? ? ?
4. PROFIT!

This is somewhat of insider trading. This is criminal in particular countries.

If you believe it's that simple, I won't try to persuade you otherwise. Does anyone actually think a chart maker would put down money after they sent out their charts? It's kind of assumed, or people stop subscribing. Use the information as part of your matrix.
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March 11, 2012, 02:00:47 PM
 #2070

If you believe it's that simple, I won't try to persuade you otherwise. Does anyone actually think a chart maker would put down money after they sent out their charts? It's kind of assumed, or people stop subscribing. Use the information as part of your matrix.
It is (or as it used to be when i subscribed) not only chart making but provides speficic trading advice, though … That’s the thing with the sudden updates. They make subscribers trade without any regard to the actual content just to be first.

I haven’t seen waveaddict do this until now, luckily, even though he too provides specific trading advice – but he simply does so in advance, not buy/sell right NOW.

From now on though I will refrain from talking about this again, as apparently many subscribers silently condone it (?).

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 11, 2012, 02:21:57 PM
 #2071

Like I said before, obviously technical analysis cannot realiably predict the future but everyone takes their own responsibility. It's a disclaimer. You can't blame anyone if you follow recommendations to the point. It's just not prudent.

If former prices are the determining factors alone, I'd say technical analysis can be very helpful. This will not include unforeseeable special events (see the movie "Rogue Trader") as earthquakes or, in our case, hacker attacks. If something like this happens past prices can't tell you anything IMHO. In general, my overall outlook is undecided (just like the current market) because a lot of insecurity is spread from the whole "tainted coins may not be accepted by MtGox anymore" and creating of possible blacklists development. I actually see this as a long-term bummer, perhaps a threat calling in question BTC all in all.

So, I sold my remaining 170 BTC because I can't afford to even possibly lose my investment at this point (hardware wasn't paid off yet). My reasoning: "Better save than sorry." If price rises, too bad but the loss is acceptable. If price plummets, unacceptable - possibly a unrecoverable loss of my overall investment. Edit: If the price really plummets, it'll be a chance to buy back my 170 BTC for less (or perhaps half?) the price I sold it for.

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March 11, 2012, 02:37:09 PM
 #2072

which makes a very clear recommendation for once Wink
Yep, go ahead, buy. And leave your ass naked =)

That's not what was suggested and I dont blindly follow his recommendations.

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March 11, 2012, 05:37:57 PM
 #2073

Yeah I wasn't talking about profiting from that.  
Definately agree.

1. Open position
2. Issue short term update to subscribers
3. ? ? ? ?
4. PROFIT!

This is somewhat of insider trading. This is criminal in particular countries.

If you don't like it, don't give him money.

Or, if you have a subscription you can't get out of, profit from it by waiting for the other subscribers to overreact.  Once they do, you will have an opportunity to profit by helping bring the market back to a sane valuation for the situation.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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March 11, 2012, 10:42:13 PM
 #2074

In weeks, months or years to come, when everyone has forgotten about what went on in this 10c price rise, people will look back and say "oh look it was another test of the $7.20 down trend line that failed" or something. It did, however stop the price from immediately eating away at the bottom trend line, which was imminent. For someone who is probably heavily long, knowing what the charts mean if it broke $4.80 at this point, getting the price up was tantamount, using any means necessary. This is always the risk when you trust someone.

The information now made available to you all through this act, is that $5.00 is not going to happen with the volume that the people who act on such information are ready to put out (at least not today). The next question, is then "what is everyone else waiting for?" Perhaps they're leaning south, and needed another test of $5.00 to confirm it...or perhaps they just haven't checked it yet.

I used that information strengthen my existing short, based on my own analysis. If I'm wrong, so be it, I'll salvage what I can just like in any other situation, and of course I won't use my full reserves on a hunch.
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March 12, 2012, 04:20:15 AM
 #2075

In weeks, months or years to come, when everyone has forgotten about what went on in this 10c price rise, people will look back and say "oh look it was another test of the $7.20 down trend line that failed" or something. It did, however stop the price from immediately eating away at the bottom trend line, which was imminent. For someone who is probably heavily long, knowing what the charts mean if it broke $4.80 at this point, getting the price up was tantamount, using any means necessary. This is always the risk when you trust someone.

The information now made available to you all through this act, is that $5.00 is not going to happen with the volume that the people who act on such information are ready to put out (at least not today). The next question, is then "what is everyone else waiting for?" Perhaps they're leaning south, and needed another test of $5.00 to confirm it...or perhaps they just haven't checked it yet.

I used that information strengthen my existing short, based on my own analysis. If I'm wrong, so be it, I'll salvage what I can just like in any other situation, and of course I won't use my full reserves on a hunch.

+1

Like I've been saying, we need to take a dip before we take off if we want to solidify up as the new long term trend.  I believe this is in the interest of the majority of the market, but I won't wager anything close to my entire stack on that.  I wouldn't mind riding it up and shorting from higher while we correct.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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March 12, 2012, 04:34:39 AM
 #2076

In weeks, months or years to come, when everyone has forgotten about what went on in this 10c price rise, people will look back and say "oh look it was another test of the $7.20 down trend line that failed" or something. It did, however stop the price from immediately eating away at the bottom trend line, which was imminent. For someone who is probably heavily long, knowing what the charts mean if it broke $4.80 at this point, getting the price up was tantamount, using any means necessary. This is always the risk when you trust someone.

The information now made available to you all through this act, is that $5.00 is not going to happen with the volume that the people who act on such information are ready to put out (at least not today). The next question, is then "what is everyone else waiting for?" Perhaps they're leaning south, and needed another test of $5.00 to confirm it...or perhaps they just haven't checked it yet.

I used that information strengthen my existing short, based on my own analysis. If I'm wrong, so be it, I'll salvage what I can just like in any other situation, and of course I won't use my full reserves on a hunch.

+1

Like I've been saying, we need to take a dip before we take off if we want to solidify up as the new long term trend.  I believe this is in the interest of the majority of the market, but I won't wager anything close to my entire stack on that.  I wouldn't mind riding it up and shorting from higher while we correct.


their will be no dips. we are shooting for 8$ remember... 

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March 12, 2012, 05:01:47 AM
 #2077

their will be no dips. we are shooting for 8$ remember... 

It's like shooting through an opaque wall.
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March 12, 2012, 06:28:49 AM
 #2078

In weeks, months or years to come, when everyone has forgotten about what went on in this 10c price rise, people will look back and say "oh look it was another test of the $7.20 down trend line that failed" or something. It did, however stop the price from immediately eating away at the bottom trend line, which was imminent. For someone who is probably heavily long, knowing what the charts mean if it broke $4.80 at this point, getting the price up was tantamount, using any means necessary. This is always the risk when you trust someone.

The information now made available to you all through this act, is that $5.00 is not going to happen with the volume that the people who act on such information are ready to put out (at least not today). The next question, is then "what is everyone else waiting for?" Perhaps they're leaning south, and needed another test of $5.00 to confirm it...or perhaps they just haven't checked it yet.

I used that information strengthen my existing short, based on my own analysis. If I'm wrong, so be it, I'll salvage what I can just like in any other situation, and of course I won't use my full reserves on a hunch.

+1

Like I've been saying, we need to take a dip before we take off if we want to solidify up as the new long term trend.  I believe this is in the interest of the majority of the market, but I won't wager anything close to my entire stack on that.  I wouldn't mind riding it up and shorting from higher while we correct.


It is entirely possible to see another dip first. At the same time, it is important to note that we are in a longterm BITBULL market. And if we are really already in major Elliott wave III up, then surprises typically come to the upside. It "only" takes 100 k$ to break 5 $. And there are 1.3 $MM in the order book, so if people decided to go long, there is rally potential.
You can also make the counter argument as there are enough BTC in the order book to drive price down.

We will see soon which is the next big move. It will be coming, as volatility is almost at all time lows - and this will change.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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March 13, 2012, 04:50:36 PM
 #2079

voila .
The forecast has fully materialzed.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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March 13, 2012, 04:52:53 PM
 #2080

voila .
The forecast has fully materialzed.


 Grin

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