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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509041 times)
somestranger
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February 21, 2012, 11:46:44 PM
 #1981

Which is a continuation pattern, correct? Which means down, down, down? Weird that I missed it in the update though. Thanks for posting!

Yes and yes (I hope). He hasn't emailed an update yet. I believe this is at least part of the reasoning behind the predictions in his 2/18 update.
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February 22, 2012, 04:57:20 PM
 #1982

There are some bots on mtgox continously executing microtrades (often less than 0.01 BTC).  Either buying or selling to make sure last price is either to the upside or to the downside of spread.  Those may manipulate the charts, depending on how you make them.  Will your charts be influenced by such bots, or do you take care to remove those microtrades before generating the charts?

Using a bot to manipulate technical analysis, and play mind games on people making trading decisions just from watching the charts, is a neat trick if it works. :-)

They don't manipulate technical analysis. The spreads are often very tiny, so the price won't change more than a few pips by this strategy. They also don't generate any meaningful volume to influence certain indicators. So they aren't a problem at all. Besides, using technical analysis, bars represent a lot longer time frame than a few seconds, so you won't see the movements caused by those micro trades either.

Thanks Mushoz, you are right, this does not influence at all the technical analysis.

In fact, the bitcoin market has been quite straightforward to predict over the past 1.5 years - as it displays great "textbook-like" patterns.


Do you think Economics professors might use examples from the Bitcoin network in their teachings?   Grin  Might be a win-win, since these are such "textbook" patterns.  I wonder, what other commodities / markets have shown such textbook-like patterns in the past?

not  a bad idea.

In fact, the triangle I was predicting is currently almost perfectly forming. even though I was predicting it, I could not believe my eyes how mass bitcoin psychology really works so perfectly

Which update contains the triangle you're talking about? I can't seem to be able to find it. Or are you talking about the triangle in the attachment, which was send in a separate email on February the 18th? To checking if I'm looking at the correct one Smiley Thanks!

Edit: Hmm, wait. That triangle isn't valid anymore. Which triangle are you talking about? Could you help me out please? Thanks! Smiley

Over the past several days a symmetrical triangle pattern has been forming. Here's my sketch:


looks like it broke out to the upside on your symmetrical triangle pattern

bitcoin technical analysis owns, need some more benzos

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February 22, 2012, 05:28:46 PM
 #1983

There are some bots on mtgox continously executing microtrades (often less than 0.01 BTC).  Either buying or selling to make sure last price is either to the upside or to the downside of spread.  Those may manipulate the charts, depending on how you make them.  Will your charts be influenced by such bots, or do you take care to remove those microtrades before generating the charts?

Using a bot to manipulate technical analysis, and play mind games on people making trading decisions just from watching the charts, is a neat trick if it works. :-)

They don't manipulate technical analysis. The spreads are often very tiny, so the price won't change more than a few pips by this strategy. They also don't generate any meaningful volume to influence certain indicators. So they aren't a problem at all. Besides, using technical analysis, bars represent a lot longer time frame than a few seconds, so you won't see the movements caused by those micro trades either.

Thanks Mushoz, you are right, this does not influence at all the technical analysis.

In fact, the bitcoin market has been quite straightforward to predict over the past 1.5 years - as it displays great "textbook-like" patterns.


Do you think Economics professors might use examples from the Bitcoin network in their teachings?   Grin  Might be a win-win, since these are such "textbook" patterns.  I wonder, what other commodities / markets have shown such textbook-like patterns in the past?

not  a bad idea.

In fact, the triangle I was predicting is currently almost perfectly forming. even though I was predicting it, I could not believe my eyes how mass bitcoin psychology really works so perfectly
I think many traders follow you - it works. When (if) B is used for the real sector - your predictions will not work well ... Tip: The lower the monthly fee, Promote your services, Promote B as a "currency speculators" and play against your subscribers (gently of course)  Grin Grin

edit
oh, sorry, not translated title is already done ...  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Donate me) 16f6iWHHkVEnDReeBQPT9GwCNwUfPTXrp2
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February 22, 2012, 09:15:53 PM
 #1984

We just issued an interim update to subscribers.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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February 23, 2012, 06:20:32 AM
 #1985

We just issued an interim update to subscribers.

Scenario ii) is the one...

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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February 23, 2012, 06:26:12 AM
 #1986

The poll is reset again.

What is your view on bitcoin prices over the next weeks?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?


>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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February 23, 2012, 06:38:03 AM
 #1987

Don't you think everyone the majority is always going to vote up because that’s what they want to believe?

Edit: meant majority

Right, but when the majority becomes everyone, it becomes contrary.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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February 23, 2012, 06:51:20 AM
 #1988

Don't you think everyone the majority is always going to vote up because that’s what they want to believe?

Edit: meant majority

Right, but when the majority becomes everyone, it becomes contrary.

Well then, we should all vote down and ride the wave.

Good luck controlling everyone.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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February 23, 2012, 11:27:12 AM
 #1989

the indicators indicate that soon something will happen. If by tomorrow it doens't go down, then rally.
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February 23, 2012, 01:57:08 PM
 #1990

the indicators indicate that soon something will happen. If by tomorrow it doens't go down, then rally.

Scenario I) price goes down.
Scenario II) price goes up.

Forecast fully on track.  Wink Tongue

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February 23, 2012, 02:03:37 PM
 #1991

the indicators indicate that soon something will happen. If by tomorrow it doens't go down, then rally.

Scenario I) price goes down.
Scenario II) price goes up.

Forecast fully on track.  Wink Tongue

More like:

Scenario 1) If prices go up past X, the target will be Y.
Scenario 2) If prices go back down below A, the target will be B.

If that's not useful for you in your trading decisions, then I don't know what is.

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February 23, 2012, 04:19:15 PM
 #1992

the indicators indicate that soon something will happen. If by tomorrow it doens't go down, then rally.

Scenario I) price goes down.
Scenario II) price goes up.

Forecast fully on track.  Wink Tongue

More like:

Scenario 1) If prices go up past X, the target will be Y.
Scenario 2) If prices go back down below A, the target will be B.

If that's not useful for you in your trading decisions, then I don't know what is.

Its more like, "If prices go back down below A, the target will be B (unless price goes back up above X before reaching B)".

The last public analysis was a new low below $3.8, unless it rose above $4.8 ("and more importantly $5.5").  Now that we're about $4.8, I suppose the analysis is still "down, unless up (above $5.5)". 

This isn't against S3052 in particular, who has probably taught this community (myself included) more about technical analysis than anyone. 

Just an unnecessary comment on the (obvious) uncertainty of technical analysis.  Didn't mean to imply that the targets aren't useful.

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February 23, 2012, 06:11:55 PM
 #1993

The recent breakout is the start of a mid-term rally, in which we will see prices of at least $6, and we may even test the $7.2 resistance level. Only a sustained fall beneath $4 will turn this view bearish again.

In other news, I just realized I can post in blue and people will interpret this as S3052's technical analysis, until they realize it's just a random person posting.

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February 23, 2012, 06:15:24 PM
 #1994

Sell sell sell.

Yours truly,
S3052

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February 23, 2012, 06:18:30 PM
 #1995

The technical indicators indicate that for every bitcoin sent to the following address, the price of bitcoin will sustainably increase by one bitcent. 1NaNoBitU2q8czqE2y5rEQPj4qcW6K3mFp

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February 23, 2012, 06:23:05 PM
 #1996

The recent breakout is the start of a mid-term rally, in which we will see prices of at least $6, and we may even test the $7.2 resistance level. Only a sustained fall beneath $4 will turn this view bearish again.

In other news, I just realized I can post in blue and people will interpret this as S3052's technical analysis, until they realize it's just a random person posting.


I just read that as "I can post in blue and purple"...

I'm still waiting for a second spike of external flows before fully committing.
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February 25, 2012, 10:26:59 PM
 #1997

S3052, now after this short rally (Is it already over?), is the danger of another mayor sell-off with huge value droppings still imminent?

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February 25, 2012, 11:08:40 PM
 #1998

S3052, now after this short rally (Is it already over?), is the danger of another mayor sell-off with huge value droppings still imminent?


Depends on your definition of "huge"

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February 26, 2012, 01:33:17 PM
 #1999

Just issued a short term update to subscribers.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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February 26, 2012, 01:47:56 PM
 #2000

Just issued a short term update to subscribers.

is it just me or is the font on these things really fucking small?

Haha, same problem here. I always copy/paste it to word, and enlarge it. And I'm 22 btw. Definitely not due to old eyes.

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