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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 509478 times)
waveaddict
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January 31, 2012, 05:35:11 AM
 #1901

the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/

we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.

triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.

A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon

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ineededausername
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January 31, 2012, 05:44:01 AM
 #1902

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance?  Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)?  200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

SMAs can be used as a trend reversal signal, but I can't see how they can be support/resistance.

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waveaddict
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January 31, 2012, 06:03:49 AM
 #1903

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance?  Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)?  200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

SMAs can be used as a trend reversal signal, but I can't see how they can be support/resistance.



good question but you will never get a satisfying answer. Think of it as one of those things you don't need to understand completely in order to know how to work with it and profit from it. Every asset has its favorite sma. Take gold for instance, the 150sma is the big one, while in currencies, its the 13 and 34. Universally though, the 20sma is the momentum indicator. Buy above it and sell below it if you are into daytrading.

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January 31, 2012, 09:18:32 AM
 #1904

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance?  Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)?  200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

I have the suspicion that technical analysis works in large part by convention: if a lot of people agree some pattern means this or that, then they will act in unison on its appearance. Since doing the same thing as the other market participants (preferrably earlier than the others, of course) yields gain, it's a good strategy to act upon these conventional signals, however (un-)founded they might be.

This is also why suggestions like "bitcoin likes triangles" make sense: many bitcoiners know about triangle interpretation and use it.

If everyone agreed "the price being at x.xx333 for more than 33 seconds" was a strong buy signal and acted upon it, it actually would be and the price would rise.

So yes, I guess you're right, it's essentially special exactly because "humans have 10 fingers".

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chsados
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January 31, 2012, 09:55:19 AM
 #1905

the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/

we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.

triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.

A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon

nice post
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January 31, 2012, 10:18:24 AM
 #1906

the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/

we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.

triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.

A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon

I wanted to post a similar analysis - with only one difference - breaking 4.6 would probably trigger another wave of cascading bitcoinica liquidations - so we'll probably reach the bottom pretty quickly (instead of bouncing from 4.5 first).  I thought that one cascade would deleverage enough - but apparently people did not treat it seriously and bitcoinica is still nearly fully depleted of USD (last time the * was seen around 5.6 - maybe some people liquidated since then but I would not bet on that).  This is the major threat that keeps me from buying back.
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February 05, 2012, 05:57:19 PM
 #1907

There are various possible interpretations in the short term.
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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February 05, 2012, 06:00:19 PM
 #1908

Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?

In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
pent
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February 05, 2012, 06:00:28 PM
 #1909

SMA/EMA/MACD/RSI are bearish. Why so optimistic? Are you tryng to push market? Latest false-positive jumps were  right after private short term updates.

Latest big overbought jump above 6 was 100% caused by S3052's short term update. It was possibly one person. I realize how he is unhappy with this prediction ) Especially if he used leverage.

Latest big oversold to 4.8 was also happened right after S3052's short-term update.
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February 05, 2012, 06:11:09 PM
 #1910

There are various possible interpretations in the short term.
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?


And, before reversing up to what?  Higher than $7.2, or just higher than the deeper levels the price will have dropped to?  If it's the latter, well, of course the price will eventually go up from some deeper level.
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February 05, 2012, 07:51:08 PM
 #1911

Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?

In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"

we believe the answer is yes.
We are in a bull market since November as long as 3.3 / 3.8 $ holds.
And short term, there is a golden cross above 5.3 - 5.4 $

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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molecular
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February 05, 2012, 08:52:49 PM
 #1912

Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?

In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"

I don't know, but I can draw this support line (on non-log chart):



So the key question for me is: will 5.4 hold?

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ArsenShnurkov
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February 05, 2012, 09:11:53 PM
 #1913

So the key question for me is: will 5.4 hold?

No, of course!!!

S3052 is always too bullish in his predictions.

Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...



The picture is inspired by the early results of this poll - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57324.0
molecular
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February 05, 2012, 09:26:12 PM
 #1914

Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...

Several months ago the mood was extremely dark, the news still kept talking of bitcoin being dead.

This has changed.

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Crypt_Current
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February 05, 2012, 09:58:38 PM
 #1915

Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...

Several months ago the mood was extremely dark, the news still kept talking of bitcoin being dead.

This has changed.

Precisely.  Sentiment is up, even among my friends that still don't fully understand the concept of cryptocurrency.  They see me getting more and more involved with it, and their exclamations of "Sounds like a scam!" and "Well have fun til it tanks!" have changed to comments like "What was that thing called again?" and "how's the mining?"

Still some sarcasm, but almost none of the original flabbergasted pessimism.

10% off at CampBX for LIFE:  https://campbx.com/main.php?r=C9a5izBQ5vq  ----  Authorized BitVoucher MEGA reseller (& BTC donations appreciated):  https://bitvoucher.co/affl/1HkvK8o8WWDpCTSQGnek7DH9gT1LWeV5s3/
LTC:  LRL6vb6XBRrEEifB73DiEiYZ9vbRy99H41  NMC:  NGb2spdTGpWj8THCPyCainaXenwDhAW1ZT
ineededausername
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February 05, 2012, 10:51:50 PM
 #1916

Just signed up.  Let's see how good S3052 is (I hear his short-term alerts are pretty accurate). Smiley

(BFL)^2 < 0
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February 05, 2012, 11:02:17 PM
 #1917

HAHAH YES! Die stupid manipulation wall! DIE!!
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February 05, 2012, 11:03:13 PM
 #1918

Just signed up.  Let's see how good S3052 is (I hear his short-term alerts are pretty accurate). Smiley

I have been quite pleased on the most part. 6+ months.
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February 05, 2012, 11:05:11 PM
 #1919

HAHAH YES! Die stupid manipulation wall! DIE!!

Indeed.  Time to pump UP!
http://youtu.be/d21wMv0YzjU

10% off at CampBX for LIFE:  https://campbx.com/main.php?r=C9a5izBQ5vq  ----  Authorized BitVoucher MEGA reseller (& BTC donations appreciated):  https://bitvoucher.co/affl/1HkvK8o8WWDpCTSQGnek7DH9gT1LWeV5s3/
LTC:  LRL6vb6XBRrEEifB73DiEiYZ9vbRy99H41  NMC:  NGb2spdTGpWj8THCPyCainaXenwDhAW1ZT
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February 05, 2012, 11:07:34 PM
 #1920

HAHAH YES! Die stupid manipulation wall! DIE!!

Indeed.  Time to pump UP!
http://youtu.be/d21wMv0YzjU

lol
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