Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[waveaddict]

the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/

we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.

triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.

A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon

[1714202267]

1714202267

[1714202267]

1714202267

[ineededausername]

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance?  Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)?  200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

SMAs can be used as a trend reversal signal, but I can't see how they can be support/resistance.

[waveaddict]

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance?  Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)?  200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

SMAs can be used as a trend reversal signal, but I can't see how they can be support/resistance.

good question but you will never get a satisfying answer. Think of it as one of those things you don't need to understand completely in order to know how to work with it and profit from it. Every asset has its favorite sma. Take gold for instance, the 150sma is the big one, while in currencies, its the 13 and 34. Universally though, the 20sma is the momentum indicator. Buy above it and sell below it if you are into daytrading.

[molecular]

One thing I never got about SMAs: how can they be support/resistance?  Why is SMA(200) "the" support, but not SMA(179) or SMA(165)?  200 is only special because humans have ten fingers.

I have the suspicion that technical analysis works in large part by convention: if a lot of people agree some pattern means this or that, then they will act in unison on its appearance. Since doing the same thing as the other market participants (preferrably earlier than the others, of course) yields gain, it's a good strategy to act upon these conventional signals, however (un-)founded they might be.

This is also why suggestions like "bitcoin likes triangles" make sense: many bitcoiners know about triangle interpretation and use it.

If everyone agreed "the price being at x.xx333 for more than 33 seconds" was a strong buy signal and acted upon it, it actually would be and the price would rise.

So yes, I guess you're right, it's essentially special exactly because "humans have 10 fingers".

[chsados]

the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/

we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.

triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.

A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon

nice post

[zby]

the likely outcome here: http://imageshack.us/f/688/bitcoinforum.png/

we are squeezed up against the daily 200 and 50 simple moving averages at the moment and a 'BIG' break is eminent especially since the daily MACD is about to enter negative territory. Either a massive buy comes in or we are heading down and likely to the 3.8ish region. But, after that, the 3rd or C wave should take us up towards the 14-18 area.

triangles are continuation patterns by nature and unfortunately the trend was going down into this triangle so the likely outcome is down.

A big buy of course can change the momentum but it has to happen soon

I wanted to post a similar analysis - with only one difference - breaking 4.6 would probably trigger another wave of cascading bitcoinica liquidations - so we'll probably reach the bottom pretty quickly (instead of bouncing from 4.5 first).  I thought that one cascade would deleverage enough - but apparently people did not treat it seriously and bitcoinica is still nearly fully depleted of USD (last time the * was seen around 5.6 - maybe some people liquidated since then but I would not bet on that).  This is the major threat that keeps me from buying back.

[S3052]

There are various possible interpretations in the short term.
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?

[N12]

Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?

In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"

[pent]

SMA/EMA/MACD/RSI are bearish. Why so optimistic? Are you tryng to push market? Latest false-positive jumps were  right after private short term updates.

Latest big overbought jump above 6 was 100% caused by S3052's short term update. It was possibly one person. I realize how he is unhappy with this prediction ) Especially if he used leverage.

Latest big oversold to 4.8 was also happened right after S3052's short-term update.

[proudhon]

There are various possible interpretations in the short term.
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?

And, before reversing up to what?  Higher than $7.2, or just higher than the deeper levels the price will have dropped to?  If it's the latter, well, of course the price will eventually go up from some deeper level.

[S3052]

Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?

In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"

we believe the answer is yes.
We are in a bull market since November as long as 3.3 / 3.8 $ holds.
And short term, there is a golden cross above 5.3 - 5.4 $

[molecular]

Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?

In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"

I don't know, but I can draw this support line (on non-log chart):



So the key question for me is: will 5.4 hold?

[ArsenShnurkov]

So the key question for me is: will 5.4 hold?

No, of course!!!

S3052 is always too bullish in his predictions.

Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...

The picture is inspired by the early results of this poll - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=57324.0

[molecular]

Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...

Several months ago the mood was extremely dark, the news still kept talking of bitcoin being dead.

This has changed.

[Crypt_Current]

Just several month ago the price was $2 and nothing changes significantly since that time...

Several months ago the mood was extremely dark, the news still kept talking of bitcoin being dead.

This has changed.

Precisely.  Sentiment is up, even among my friends that still don't fully understand the concept of cryptocurrency.  They see me getting more and more involved with it, and their exclamations of "Sounds like a scam!" and "Well have fun til it tanks!" have changed to comments like "What was that thing called again?" and "how's the mining?"

Still some sarcasm, but almost none of the original flabbergasted pessimism.

[ineededausername]

Just signed up.  Let's see how good S3052 is (I hear his short-term alerts are pretty accurate).

[NamelessOne]

HAHAH YES! Die stupid manipulation wall! DIE!!

[NamelessOne]

Just signed up.  Let's see how good S3052 is (I hear his short-term alerts are pretty accurate).

I have been quite pleased on the most part. 6+ months.

[Crypt_Current]

HAHAH YES! Die stupid manipulation wall! DIE!!

Indeed.  Time to pump UP!
http://youtu.be/d21wMv0YzjU

[NamelessOne]

HAHAH YES! Die stupid manipulation wall! DIE!!

Indeed.  Time to pump UP!
http://youtu.be/d21wMv0YzjU

lol